Award Finalists: Hart Memorial

[Empoleon8771]

I don't get why people think McDavid will be a finalist, why is this year any different than last year when it comes to that? He wasn't a finalist last year when he won the Art Ross and Lindsay, why would he be one now with his team still in shambles and him not winning those major awards?

 

[thadd]

He has the much stronger case this year. He was more productive (relative to the league) while his team was in contention for the playoffs as opposed to last year when he was 5th to 7th in scoring for the time his team was in playoff contention.

Should be a comfortable #2 pick IMO. Kuch should be the clear #1 and Crosby should be a comfortable #3 pick.

If the Aves lost Mackinnon and if the Penguins lost Crosby (for a full season) who would have felt it more?
Crosby was better down the stretch, but Colorado minus Mackinnon is almost as bad as Edmonton minus McDavid.

 

[daver]

If the Aves lost Mackinnon and if the Penguins lost Crosby (for a full season) who would have felt it more?
Crosby was better down the stretch, but Colorado minus Mackinnon is almost as bad as Edmonton minus McDavid.

I won't get into the very subjective "more valuable" debate, I look at who was the better player or had the better season with reasonable consideration for teams that make the playoffs. MacKinnon had a linemate that was almost as good as him so I give Crosby the edge offensively and also because he was elite defensively. He is this year's Kopitar.

Mac is a good choice for 4th though along with Gaudreau.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I don't get why people think McDavid will be a finalist, why is this year any different than last year when it comes to that? He wasn't a finalist last year when he won the Art Ross and Lindsay, why would he be one now with his team still in shambles and him not winning those major awards?

I don't have a great answer to that other than the voters were wrong last season and their logic was incoherent.

 

[DRW204]

went with Kuch/Mack/Sid

 

[acor]

I don't get why people think McDavid will be a finalist, why is this year any different than last year when it comes to that? He wasn't a finalist last year when he won the Art Ross and Lindsay, why would he be one now with his team still in shambles and him not winning those major awards?

I can speak for myself- because I'm stupid and didn't read the OP (it "who do you think will be nominated", not "who do you think should be nominated"... This are two entirely different things...).

 

[nowhereman]

Kucherov, Crosby and McDavid are my three. Easy win for Kucherov.

 

[tony d]

Kucherov
Crosby
Gaudreau

 

[Voight]

An Oilers fan is the first to vote for Giordano? The dude has been insane this season.

Youre completely right but the Hart is historically bias against defensemen.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If the Aves lost Mackinnon and if the Penguins lost Crosby (for a full season) who would have felt it more?
Crosby was better down the stretch, but Colorado minus Mackinnon is almost as bad as Edmonton minus McDavid.

This particular season, the Pens would have been bad considering Kessel and Malkin had rough and very inconsistent years (point totals slightly misleading due to PP), as well as Malkin, Letang, and Schultz missing time due to injury.

Like, people don't seem to be aware of just how bad the Kessel/Malkin line has been for a lot of this season. I know it's a questionable stat for the most part, but their plus/minus on a team that was a +32 in goal differential actually tells the proper tale of how they played at 5on5 most of the year.

 

[Regal]

I don't get why people think McDavid will be a finalist, why is this year any different than last year when it comes to that? He wasn't a finalist last year when he won the Art Ross and Lindsay, why would he be one now with his team still in shambles and him not winning those major awards?

When have voters ever been consistent in voting? Last year there was clearly a narrative being pushed due to Hall and MacKinnon about players who carried their teams to the playoffs, and McDavid's season ended up getting ignored. But while Art Ross winners on non-playoff teams have finished low in voting in the past, those have generally been seasons where the winner wasn't seen as the best player (St. Louis in '13, Gretzky in '93). McDavid finishing so low as the Pearson winner was unprecedented, and I've heard a lot of media talk about how ridiculous it was this season.

With Kucherov the easy winner this year, I don't think voters are going to be overthinking things as much on the rest of their lists, and will focus more on the best players, and rectify what happened last season. There's also a ton of players on playoff teams who played at similar levels just below McDavid (Crosby, Marchand, Gaudreau, Ovechkin, MacKinnon) who have good cases for the Hart. I think rather than try to separate them all, voters will end up going with the 2nd best player at #2 since they already know Kucherov will be a worthy winner

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

When have voters ever been consistent in voting? Last year there was clearly a narrative being pushed due to Hall and MacKinnon about players who carried their teams to the playoffs, and McDavid's season ended up getting ignored. But while Art Ross winners on non-playoff teams have finished low in voting in the past, those have generally been seasons where the winner wasn't seen as the best player (St. Louis in '13, Gretzky in '93). McDavid finishing so low as the Pearson winner was unprecedented, and I've heard a lot of media talk about how ridiculous it was this season.

With Kucherov the easy winner this year, I don't think voters are going to be overthinking things as much on the rest of their lists, and will focus more on the best players, and rectify what happened last season. There's also a ton of players on playoff teams who played at similar levels just below McDavid (Crosby, Marchand, Gaudreau, Ovechkin, MacKinnon) who have good cases for the Hart. I think rather than try to separate them all, voters will end up going with the 2nd best player at #2 since they already know Kucherov will be a worthy winner

He finished 5th in voting last year, though. Even if voters were pushing the Hall/MacKinnon narrative, if they didn't mind giving votes to the best player even if his team missed the playoffs, they could have had McDavid as the 3rd place finisher behind Hall and MacKinnon. But clearly making the playoffs meant something to a lot of the voters (I think MacKenzie was one of the few who tends to stick to "best player"). So I don't see why this year would be any different.

If anything, he might have even less of a case of finishing Top 3 because he didn't win the Art Ross and might not win the Lindsay. At least last year he had both of those going in his favor.

 

[Regal]

He finished 5th in voting last year, though. Even if voters were pushing the Hall/MacKinnon narrative, if they didn't mind giving votes to the best player even if his team missed the playoffs, they could have had McDavid as the 3rd place finisher behind Hall and MacKinnon. But clearly making the playoffs meant something to a lot of the voters (I think MacKenzie was one of the few who tends to stick to "best player"). So I don't see why this year would be any different.

If anything, he might have even less of a case of finishing Top 3 because he didn't win the Art Ross and might not win the Lindsay. At least last year he had both of those going in his favor.

But it's not just the players themselves, it's the narrative and the mentality they evoke. The "to his team" aspect has always been a factor in voting, as has making the playoffs, but the narrative surrounding Hall and MacKinnon pushed those two things to the forefront more than I can ever remember in the past and I believe it influenced the rest of the voting. If someone is so focused on those things for the first 2 slots on their ballot, it's going to be odd to abruptly change the narrative for their other picks. And while McDavid finished 5th, it was distantly so. Lots of voters left him off the ballot entirely. As such, players like Giroux and Kopitar wouldn't generally have finished ahead of him, and I don't believe similar equivalents this year (like Marchand, Gaudreau, etc) will finish ahead again. We will see random years where there is a push to something, only to bounce back the next year (like Pronger's win being a push to include defensemen).

I agree he has less of a case on the surface this year, not being the best player and Art Ross winner, but again, voters aren't consistent. I think many will see last year as a negative and try to rectify that. Some might have assumed that the Oilers would be back in it this year when voting last year, so it would only be a one-off year, and don't want to "punish" him twice. I also think with Kucherov the easy winner, they'll be less concerned with "their guy" winning it, and throw him a bone. Also, while he was the best player last year, he actually has a bigger lead over his competition outside of Kucherov this season. The drop to Giroux was only 6 points last year. The closest player to McDavid to make the playoffs this season after Kucherov is 16.

HF is actually an interesting case study for this. Last year there was huge debate on this site about the Hart, and many people went so far as to not put McDavid in their top 7-8 players because the "to his team" aspect became such a huge narrative. People get wrapped up in it and overthink things. This year, I haven't heard much complaint about people putting him top 3 because with Kucherov a worthy winner, people seem content to simply reward the best players.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

But it's not just the players themselves, it's the narrative and the mentality they evoke. The "to his team" aspect has always been a factor in voting, as has making the playoffs, but the narrative surrounding Hall and MacKinnon pushed those two things to the forefront more than I can ever remember in the past and I believe it influenced the rest of the voting. If someone is so focused on those things for the first 2 slots on their ballot, it's going to be odd to abruptly change the narrative for their other picks. And while McDavid finished 5th, it was distantly so. Lots of voters left him off the ballot entirely. As such, players like Giroux and Kopitar wouldn't generally have finished ahead of him, and I don't believe similar equivalents this year (like Marchand, Gaudreau, etc) will finish ahead again. We will see random years where there is a push to something, only to bounce back the next year (like Pronger's win being a push to include defensemen).

I agree he has less of a case on the surface this year, not being the best player and Art Ross winner, but again, voters aren't consistent. I think many will see last year as a negative and try to rectify that. Some might have assumed that the Oilers would be back in it this year when voting last year, so it would only be a one-off year, and don't want to "punish" him twice. I also think with Kucherov the easy winner, they'll be less concerned with "their guy" winning it, and throw him a bone. Also, while he was the best player last year, he actually has a bigger lead over his competition outside of Kucherov this season. The drop to Giroux was only 6 points last year. The closest player to McDavid to make the playoffs this season after Kucherov is 16.

HF is actually an interesting case study for this. Last year there was huge debate on this site about the Hart, and many people went so far as to not put McDavid in their top 7-8 players because the "to his team" aspect became such a huge narrative. People get wrapped up in it and overthink things. This year, I haven't heard much complaint about people putting him top 3 because with Kucherov a worthy winner, people seem content to simply reward the best players.

I've personally always hated the "to his team" focus, especially because it also seems to always include the idea that "most valuable to his team" only applies to players who help a 10th seed barely squeak in as the 8th seed, but not to players who help a 5th seed finish 1st.

Unfortunately, the media -- at least segments of them -- are obsessed with that point. So they'll discount players who didn't make the playoffs, or discount players who played on otherwise good teams, and only focus on "if you removed Player X, would his team even make the playoffs". So I can see McDavid still losing a lot of votes because of the non-playoff thing.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Nhl.com panel of 21 voters for the hart
Kuch
Crosby
Johnny hockey

The top 3
Kucherov near-unanimous favorite for Hart