Avs Top 9 Point Prediction Thread- Step Up.

[ORLY]

Simple, how many goals/assists/points do you think the members of our top 9 will score this season?

8 points, if you successfully predict every category for a player
4 points, if you successfully predict the number of points they scored.
3 points, if you successfully predict a players goals or assists.
1 point for each category where your guess comes within 3 of the final total, higher or lower. (Not stackable with above)

PLEASE NOTE:
- Deadline for predictions is Tuesday, October 8th, BEFORE the game against Toronto.
- Potential injury should be considered, but if a player misses 32 or more games, they don't count.
- I will dig up this thread at the end of the regular season, and tally up the scores.
- Only scoring if 12 or more posters participate, maximum 50.
- Feel free to state the reasoning for your picks.

The winner will get the privilege to choose a nickname/accolade from this list. Submit your best ones and I'll edit them into the OP.

"Mr. Perfect"
"Avstradamus"
"Guy who won a prediction game on the internet"

Click to read more...

 

[ORLY]

My Predictions

Stastny: 21-40-61- Coaching change will have an impact on him
Landeskog: 28-32-60 -Bounceback year
McGinn: 24-22-46 - Less posts
Downie: 14-26-40
Tanguay: 16-30-46
Duchene: 31-48-79 - He's due for his best year yet.
O'Reilly: 26-42-68 - I like his chances, playing wing with Duchene...so nice.
Parenteau: 18-38-56- Less playing time with Duchene.
MacKinnon: 21-30-51 -Respectable, plays less mins than staz and dutchy, gets PP time though.

 

[Clainer09]

Duchene: 33-47-80 Finally the year we've waited for
O'Reilly: 24-42-66 Big year next to Dutchy
Parenteau: 22-38-60 Respectable year from PAP
Stastny: 18-44-62 Bounceback year under Roy (Still see him traded at deadline)
Landeskog: 25-29-54 Landy has a great year as our Captain
Tanguay: 21-37-58 Pretty good year for Tanger, shows he's still got some left.
MacKinnon: 18-26-44 Slow start, Turns it up when Stastny is traded.
Downie: 14-27-41 Good numbers and Downie brings toughness back to Avs.
McGinn: 15-28-43 Adds to toughness and forecheck, unfortunately keeps ringing the posts.

 

[Dalfan]

Duchene: 33-47-80 Finally the year we've waited for
O'Reilly: 24-42-66 Big year next to Dutchy
Parenteau: 22-38-60 Respectable year from PAP
Stastny: 18-44-62 Bounceback year under Roy (Still see him traded at deadline)
Landeskog: 25-29-54 Landy has a great year as our Captain
Tanguay: 21-37-58 Pretty good year for Tanger, shows he's still got some left.
MacKinnon: 18-26-44 Slow start, Turns it up when Stastny is traded.
Downie: 14-27-41 Good numbers and Downie brings toughness back to Avs.
McGinn: 15-28-43 Adds to toughness and forecheck, unfortunately keeps ringing the posts.

You just posted almost exactly what ORLY posted.

 

[avsfan3737]

Duchene: 26-40-66
ROR: 22-38-60
PAP: 19-41-60
Stastny: 21-36-57
Landy: 29-27-56
Tanguay: 13-38-51
Mack: 23-25-48
Downie: 19-21-40
Mcginn: 22-16-38

 

[Clainer09]

You just posted almost exactly what ORLY posted.

There's nothing the same that I posted. Sorry that we have similar expectations/hopes. It's a point predictions thread.

 

[Freudian]

Duchene 26-43-69
Stastny 21-40-61
MacKinnon 20-24-44
O'Reilly 23-42-65
Landeskog 29-34-63
McGinn 20-18-38
Downie 17-34-51
Tanguay 18-42-60
Parenteau 20-39-59

 

[TheStranger]

Duchene 35-46-81
Stastny 24-50-74
O'Reilly 25-45-70
Parenteau 24-46-70
Landeskog 30-35-65
Tanguay 20-45-65
Downie 18-35-53
MacKinnon 22-25-47
Mcginn 22-22-44

Barrie 13-34-47

 

[Freudian]

McGinn was the hardest since it's looking like he might not get PP time if everyone is healthy. MacKinnon didn't get any PP time either last night, unless my memory fails me.

 

[avsfan09]

Duchene-27-47-74
O'reilly 23-43-66
Stastny 24-41-65
Landeskog 31-32-63
Tanguay-18-42-60
Parenteau -16-34-50
Downie 19-31-50
Mac-23-24-47
Mcgin-21-15-36

 

[Zih]

ROR 20-39-59
Duchene 29-38-67
Downie 12-22-34
Landeskog 16-18-34
Stastny 17-32-49
Tanguay 10-19-29
McGinn 11-20-31
MacKinnon 15-13-28
PAP 12-26-38

There's only so much ice time to go around, so I think a lot of players will see their production suffer accordingly. I think we're still in the bottom half of the league in scoring, although we may claw our way out of the bottom 10.

 

[Taak19]

Duchene 26g/47a/73p
O'Reilly 25g/40a/65p
Landeskog 28g/37a/65p
Stastny 20g/44a/64p
Parenteau 18g/43a/61p
MacKinnon 20g/39a/59p
Tanguay 16g/38a/54p
McGinn 22g/31a/53p
Downie 16g/30a/46p

Very generous.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

ROR 20-39-59
Duchene 29-38-67
Downie 12-22-34
Landeskog 16-18-34
Stastny 17-32-49
Tanguay 10-19-29
McGinn 11-20-31
MacKinnon 15-13-28
PAP 12-26-38

There's only so much ice time to go around, so I think a lot of players will see their production suffer accordingly. I think we're still in the bottom half of the league in scoring, although we may claw our way out of the bottom 10.

If the Avs top 9 only scores 142 goals, then they wouldn't come close to getting out of the bottom 10 in goals for. The lowest team goal total in the NHL since the lockout is 166, and if that's the production the Avs get from their top 9, then they will crush that record.

Duchene - 28-44-72
O'Reilly - 29-35-64
Landeskog - 34-26-60
Stastny - 21-37-58
PAP - 20-37-57
Tanguay - 18-35-53
Downie - 16-32-48
MacKinnon - 22-25-47
McGinn - 17-19-36

I don't think the Avs will have issues scoring. Defending is another story...

EDIT: I guess I didn't account for injuries, but I'm too lazy to change it. I'm calling a full season for everyone!

 

[hattrick3518]

I predicted the game totals too, if you need me to adjust for 82 games each, let me know.

Predictions -

Duchene - Will lead the team, will be even better defensively
Parenteau - Will be making plays and scoring more thanks to RoR
Stastny - Will go back to his form of the pre-Sacco era, point totals will grow
O'Reilly - Will dish the puck to Duchene and Parenteau, go to dirty areas, will get 50+ points
Landeskog - Will get close to 30 goals, will be more physical and vocal
MacKinnon - Will have a slow start, will pick up late, point totals similar to Toews rookie season
Tanguay - Will be good when healthy, versatile, will put up points
McGinn - Will hit less posts and find the back of the net more, 20+ with an outside chance for 30g
Downie - Will be the character guy, he will benefit from the skill he is surrounded with

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

Duchene 29-50-79
PAP 24-48-72
Landeskog 22-25-47
Tanguay 15-38-53
Stastny 19-35-54
ROR 19-28-47
McGinn 14-28-42
MacKinnon 20-20-40
Downie 13-20-33

 

[Zih]

If the Avs top 9 only scores 142 goals, then they wouldn't come close to getting out of the bottom 10 in goals for. The lowest team goal total in the NHL since the lockout is 166, and if that's the production the Avs get from their top 9, then they will crush that record.

Two years ago, our top 11 goal-scoring forwards combined for 149 goals, and the Avs finished with 199 goals (25th). The top 9 combined for 135 goals. At 142 goals between our top 9, that suggests a modest increase over 199 goals. Had we been at 210 goals in 2011-12, that would've been good for 18th (tie). Goal-scoring in general has been trending downward. I'd say a team total of 200-210 goals sounds about right.

There will inevitably be injuries to the top 9, and guys like Mitchell/McLeod/Olver/Sgar will collect some goals when they fill in for injuries.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Duchy - 24-42-66
ROR - 21-39-60
Staz - 20-40-60
Landy - 28-28-56
PAP - 17-38-55
Downie - 14-35-49
Tangs - 12-36-48
Barrie - 8-30-38
MacK - 14-20-34
McGinn - 14-18-32

 

[Freudian]

Two years ago, our top 11 goal-scoring forwards combined for 149 goals, and the Avs finished with 199 goals (25th). The top 9 combined for 135 goals. At 142 goals between our top 9, that suggests a modest increase over 199 goals. Had we been at 210 goals in 2011-12, that would've been good for 18th (tie). Goal-scoring in general has been trending downward. I'd say a team total of 200-210 goals sounds about right.

There will inevitably be injuries to the top 9, and guys like Mitchell/McLeod/Olver/Sgar will collect some goals when they fill in for injuries.

I think most predictions are for 82 game pace. So if a player misses half the season, half the points will be the prediction for that player.

Having to guess who gets injured for how long and how that would effect scoring is adding another layer of wild guesses to something that's already hard enough to guess.

 

[Zih]

I think most predictions are for 82 game pace. So if a player misses half the season, half the points will be the prediction for that player.

Having to guess who gets injured for how long and how that would effect scoring is adding another layer of wild guesses to something that's already hard enough to guess.

Reading the OP, it sure seems like the rules of the game are based off of pure points and not paces. The only thing about injuries is that if a player misses 32 or more games, that player is ignored in our predictions. If we decide to do paces then I will of course adjust my numbers upward a bit, since my predictions assumed that some people will miss some games.

That post was more refuting Mars' assertion that if our top 9 only scores 142 goals then we can't possibly be out of the bottom 10 in scoring. I simply pointed out that once you add in defense, injury call ups, etc that you can easily get up to 200+ goals as a team with only 142 for our nominal top 9 on the full roster.

 

[NWAvs]

If duchene scores 30 this year I will freak out. That would be awesome

 

[Relaxedriley]

Duchene 31, 46, 77 : Leafs fans propose Duchene for Kadri (if we throw in Johnson and retain salary.)

O'Reilly 27, 38, 65 :

Stastny 20, 43, 63 :

Landeskog 28, 32, 60 : Weighs the same as Jamie Mcginn

Parentaeu 21, 38, 59 : Promoted to top two lines.

Downie 19, 28, 47 : 75+ Games, career year.

Tanguay 16, 29, 45 : 3rd line

MacKinnon 18, 23, 41 :

McGinn 19, 19, 38 : Loses 30 Pounds, still looks fat.

 

[AslanRH]

Not sure if it meant top 9 forwards or top 9 scorers, so I went with forwards.

Duchene - 22-58-80
O'Reilly - 25-40-65
Stastny - 22-50-70
Landeskog - 30-20-50
Parenteau - 20-35-55
Downie - 12-20-32 (misses 15-20 games)
Tanguay - 15-40-55
MacKinnon - 15-30-45
McGinn - 20-20-40

Barrie (10-35-45) will outscore at least one top 9 forward this year I think, probably 2.

 

[Flanagan]

Duchene - 34G - 46A - 80Pts

O'Reilly - 23G - 41A - 64Pts

Landeskog - 28G - 29A - 57Pts

Stastny - 20G - 35A - 55Pts

Parenteau - 22G - 36A - 58Pts

Tanguay - 16G - 21A - 37 Pts

MacKinnon - 22G - 25A - 47Pts

McGinn - 17G - 11A - 28Pts

Downie - 15G - 20A - 35Pts

 

[tigervixxxen]

Duchene 29-45-74
Stastny 20-47-67
Landeskog 28-35-63
Parenteau 20-42-62
Tanguay 18-42-60
O'Reilly 21-35-56
MacKinnon 23-28-51
McGinn 21-23-44
Downie 14-25-39

My guess for scoring D is Benoit, Barrie, EJ in that order. I know the above is too many goals but I just can't predict injuries so I'm not going there.

 

[AvsGuy]

Player GP G A P
------------------------------------------------------------------
Matt Duchene 76 35 44 79
PA Parenteau 79 31 41 72
Paul Stastny 81 20 43 63
Gabriel Landeskog 82 27 29 56
Ryan O'Reilly 68 23 30 53
Alex Tanguay 75 19 33 52
Nathan MacKinnon 80 21 29 50
Tyson Barrie 81 9 35 44
Jamie McGinn 74 20 22 42