Avs Top 9 Point Prediction Thread- Step Up.

Discussion in 'Colorado Avalanche' started by ORLY, Sep 29, 2013.

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  1. ORLY

    ORLY Registered User

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    Simple, how many goals/assists/points do you think the members of our top 9 will score this season?

    8 points, if you successfully predict every category for a player
    4 points, if you successfully predict the number of points they scored.
    3 points, if you successfully predict a players goals or assists.
    1 point for each category where your guess comes within 3 of the final total, higher or lower. (Not stackable with above)

    PLEASE NOTE:
    - Deadline for predictions is Tuesday, October 8th, BEFORE the game against Toronto.
    - Potential injury should be considered, but if a player misses 32 or more games, they don't count.
    - I will dig up this thread at the end of the regular season, and tally up the scores.
    - Only scoring if 12 or more posters participate, maximum 50.
    - Feel free to state the reasoning for your picks.

    The winner will get the privilege to choose a nickname/accolade from this list. Submit your best ones and I'll edit them into the OP. :yo:

    "Mr. Perfect"
    "Avstradamus"
    "Guy who won a prediction game on the internet"
     
  2. ORLY

    ORLY Registered User

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    My Predictions

    Stastny: 21-40-61- Coaching change will have an impact on him
    Landeskog: 28-32-60 -Bounceback year
    McGinn: 24-22-46 - Less posts
    Downie: 14-26-40
    Tanguay: 16-30-46
    Duchene: 31-48-79 - He's due for his best year yet.
    O'Reilly: 26-42-68 - I like his chances, playing wing with Duchene...so nice.
    Parenteau: 18-38-56- Less playing time with Duchene.
    MacKinnon: 21-30-51 -Respectable, plays less mins than staz and dutchy, gets PP time though.
     
  3. Clainer09

    Clainer09 Registered User

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    Duchene: 33-47-80 Finally the year we've waited for
    O'Reilly: 24-42-66 Big year next to Dutchy
    Parenteau: 22-38-60 Respectable year from PAP
    Stastny: 18-44-62 Bounceback year under Roy (Still see him traded at deadline)
    Landeskog: 25-29-54 Landy has a great year as our Captain
    Tanguay: 21-37-58 Pretty good year for Tanger, shows he's still got some left.
    MacKinnon: 18-26-44 Slow start, Turns it up when Stastny is traded.
    Downie: 14-27-41 Good numbers and Downie brings toughness back to Avs.
    McGinn: 15-28-43 Adds to toughness and forecheck, unfortunately keeps ringing the posts.
     
  4. Dalfan

    Dalfan Registered User

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    You just posted almost exactly what ORLY posted.
     
  5. avsfan3737

    avsfan3737 Registered User

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    Duchene: 26-40-66
    ROR: 22-38-60
    PAP: 19-41-60
    Stastny: 21-36-57
    Landy: 29-27-56
    Tanguay: 13-38-51
    Mack: 23-25-48
    Downie: 19-21-40
    Mcginn: 22-16-38
     
  6. Clainer09

    Clainer09 Registered User

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    There's nothing the same that I posted. Sorry that we have similar expectations/hopes. It's a point predictions thread.
     
  7. Freudian

    Freudian Clearly deranged

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    Duchene 26-43-69
    Stastny 21-40-61
    MacKinnon 20-24-44
    O'Reilly 23-42-65
    Landeskog 29-34-63
    McGinn 20-18-38
    Downie 17-34-51
    Tanguay 18-42-60
    Parenteau 20-39-59
     
  8. TheStranger

    TheStranger Registered User

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    Duchene 35-46-81
    Stastny 24-50-74
    O'Reilly 25-45-70
    Parenteau 24-46-70
    Landeskog 30-35-65
    Tanguay 20-45-65
    Downie 18-35-53
    MacKinnon 22-25-47
    Mcginn 22-22-44

    Barrie 13-34-47
     
  9. Freudian

    Freudian Clearly deranged

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    McGinn was the hardest since it's looking like he might not get PP time if everyone is healthy. MacKinnon didn't get any PP time either last night, unless my memory fails me.
     
  10. avsfan09

    avsfan09 Registered User

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    Duchene-27-47-74
    O'reilly 23-43-66
    Stastny 24-41-65
    Landeskog 31-32-63
    Tanguay-18-42-60
    Parenteau -16-34-50
    Downie 19-31-50
    Mac-23-24-47
    Mcgin-21-15-36
     
  11. Zih

    Zih Dater's Gonna Hate

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    ROR 20-39-59
    Duchene 29-38-67
    Downie 12-22-34
    Landeskog 16-18-34
    Stastny 17-32-49
    Tanguay 10-19-29
    McGinn 11-20-31
    MacKinnon 15-13-28
    PAP 12-26-38

    There's only so much ice time to go around, so I think a lot of players will see their production suffer accordingly. I think we're still in the bottom half of the league in scoring, although we may claw our way out of the bottom 10.
     
  12. Razor29

    Razor29 Bandwagon Hopper Sponsor

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    Duchene 26g/47a/73p
    O'Reilly 25g/40a/65p
    Landeskog 28g/37a/65p
    Stastny 20g/44a/64p
    Parenteau 18g/43a/61p
    MacKinnon 20g/39a/59p
    Tanguay 16g/38a/54p
    McGinn 22g/31a/53p
    Downie 16g/30a/46p

    Very generous.
     
  13. The Mars Volchenkov

    The Mars Volchenkov Registered User

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    If the Avs top 9 only scores 142 goals, then they wouldn't come close to getting out of the bottom 10 in goals for. The lowest team goal total in the NHL since the lockout is 166, and if that's the production the Avs get from their top 9, then they will crush that record.

    Duchene - 28-44-72
    O'Reilly - 29-35-64
    Landeskog - 34-26-60
    Stastny - 21-37-58
    PAP - 20-37-57
    Tanguay - 18-35-53
    Downie - 16-32-48
    MacKinnon - 22-25-47
    McGinn - 17-19-36

    I don't think the Avs will have issues scoring. Defending is another story...

    EDIT: I guess I didn't account for injuries, but I'm too lazy to change it. I'm calling a full season for everyone!
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
  14. hattrick3518

    hattrick3518 Registered User

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    I predicted the game totals too, if you need me to adjust for 82 games each, let me know.

    [​IMG]

    Predictions -

    Duchene - Will lead the team, will be even better defensively
    Parenteau - Will be making plays and scoring more thanks to RoR
    Stastny - Will go back to his form of the pre-Sacco era, point totals will grow
    O'Reilly - Will dish the puck to Duchene and Parenteau, go to dirty areas, will get 50+ points
    Landeskog - Will get close to 30 goals, will be more physical and vocal
    MacKinnon - Will have a slow start, will pick up late, point totals similar to Toews rookie season
    Tanguay - Will be good when healthy, versatile, will put up points
    McGinn - Will hit less posts and find the back of the net more, 20+ with an outside chance for 30g
    Downie - Will be the character guy, he will benefit from the skill he is surrounded with
     
  15. WarriorOfGandhi

    WarriorOfGandhi Was saying Boo-urns

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    Duchene 29-50-79
    PAP 24-48-72
    Landeskog 22-25-47
    Tanguay 15-38-53
    Stastny 19-35-54
    ROR 19-28-47
    McGinn 14-28-42
    MacKinnon 20-20-40
    Downie 13-20-33
     
  16. Zih

    Zih Dater's Gonna Hate

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    Two years ago, our top 11 goal-scoring forwards combined for 149 goals, and the Avs finished with 199 goals (25th). The top 9 combined for 135 goals. At 142 goals between our top 9, that suggests a modest increase over 199 goals. Had we been at 210 goals in 2011-12, that would've been good for 18th (tie). Goal-scoring in general has been trending downward. I'd say a team total of 200-210 goals sounds about right.

    There will inevitably be injuries to the top 9, and guys like Mitchell/McLeod/Olver/Sgar will collect some goals when they fill in for injuries.
     
  17. Lonewolfe2015

    Lonewolfe2015 Rom Com Male Lead

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    Duchy - 24-42-66
    ROR - 21-39-60
    Staz - 20-40-60
    Landy - 28-28-56
    PAP - 17-38-55
    Downie - 14-35-49
    Tangs - 12-36-48
    Barrie - 8-30-38
    MacK - 14-20-34
    McGinn - 14-18-32
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
  18. Freudian

    Freudian Clearly deranged

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    I think most predictions are for 82 game pace. So if a player misses half the season, half the points will be the prediction for that player.

    Having to guess who gets injured for how long and how that would effect scoring is adding another layer of wild guesses to something that's already hard enough to guess.
     
  19. Zih

    Zih Dater's Gonna Hate

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    Reading the OP, it sure seems like the rules of the game are based off of pure points and not paces. The only thing about injuries is that if a player misses 32 or more games, that player is ignored in our predictions. If we decide to do paces then I will of course adjust my numbers upward a bit, since my predictions assumed that some people will miss some games.

    That post was more refuting Mars' assertion that if our top 9 only scores 142 goals then we can't possibly be out of the bottom 10 in scoring. I simply pointed out that once you add in defense, injury call ups, etc that you can easily get up to 200+ goals as a team with only 142 for our nominal top 9 on the full roster.
     
  20. NWAvs

    NWAvs Registered User

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    If duchene scores 30 this year I will freak out. That would be awesome
     
  21. Relaxedriley

    Relaxedriley Slightly Sober

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    Duchene 31, 46, 77 : Leafs fans propose Duchene for Kadri (if we throw in Johnson and retain salary.)

    O'Reilly 27, 38, 65 :

    Stastny 20, 43, 63 :

    Landeskog 28, 32, 60 : Weighs the same as Jamie Mcginn

    Parentaeu 21, 38, 59 : Promoted to top two lines.

    Downie 19, 28, 47 : 75+ Games, career year.

    Tanguay 16, 29, 45 : 3rd line

    MacKinnon 18, 23, 41 :

    McGinn 19, 19, 38 : Loses 30 Pounds, still looks fat.
     
  22. AslanRH

    AslanRH Plebeian Poster Sponsor

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    Not sure if it meant top 9 forwards or top 9 scorers, so I went with forwards.

    Duchene - 22-58-80
    O'Reilly - 25-40-65
    Stastny - 22-50-70
    Landeskog - 30-20-50
    Parenteau - 20-35-55
    Downie - 12-20-32 (misses 15-20 games)
    Tanguay - 15-40-55
    MacKinnon - 15-30-45
    McGinn - 20-20-40

    Barrie (10-35-45) will outscore at least one top 9 forward this year I think, probably 2.
     
  23. Flanagan

    Flanagan Registered Loser

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    Duchene - 34G - 46A - 80Pts

    O'Reilly - 23G - 41A - 64Pts

    Landeskog - 28G - 29A - 57Pts

    Stastny - 20G - 35A - 55Pts

    Parenteau - 22G - 36A - 58Pts

    Tanguay - 16G - 21A - 37 Pts

    MacKinnon - 22G - 25A - 47Pts

    McGinn - 17G - 11A - 28Pts

    Downie - 15G - 20A - 35Pts
     
  24. tigervixxxen

    tigervixxxen Optimism=Delusional

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    Duchene 29-45-74
    Stastny 20-47-67
    Landeskog 28-35-63
    Parenteau 20-42-62
    Tanguay 18-42-60
    O'Reilly 21-35-56
    MacKinnon 23-28-51
    McGinn 21-23-44
    Downie 14-25-39

    My guess for scoring D is Benoit, Barrie, EJ in that order. I know the above is too many goals but I just can't predict injuries so I'm not going there.
     
  25. AvsGuy

    AvsGuy Flagrant Violater

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    Player GP G A P
    ------------------------------------------------------------------
    Matt Duchene 76 35 44 79
    PA Parenteau 79 31 41 72
    Paul Stastny 81 20 43 63
    Gabriel Landeskog 82 27 29 56
    Ryan O'Reilly 68 23 30 53
    Alex Tanguay 75 19 33 52
    Nathan MacKinnon 80 21 29 50
    Tyson Barrie 81 9 35 44
    Jamie McGinn 74 20 22 42
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2013

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