Iceberg
Registered User
- May 4, 2002
- 4,783
- 1,116
So, basically only Turris and it was not even close to the trade deadline and with a Stanley Cup contender.
Rumor: Avs Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents 18-19 part XVII| Are We Sellers?
- Thread starter SoundwaveIsCharisma
- Start date
- Status
So, basically only Turris and it was not even close to the trade deadline and with a Stanley Cup contender.
- Jan 18, 2016
- 34,098
- 25,205
But you can still talk to agents to gauge contract interest. If Turris said there was 0 chance he'd sign in NSH I'm sure the Preds wouldn't have traded for him.
Avs44
Registered User
- May 16, 2011
- 21,677
- 10,139
Wall of text below, scroll past.
I've been reading about how this is a buyers deadline, so I decided to take a further look at it, mainly out of curiosity. It actually seems like it's going to be such an extreme buyers market that will drive the prices down on everybody. Just looking at the rental forwards and who could be available there:
TIER 1
- It's actually possible both Stone and Duchene will be available. I think Duchene isn't re-signing whatsoever, and given how he's performed this year + the last 45 games of last year he's going to be one heck of a rental.
- I could see Stone re-signing in Ottawa, but if he also becomes available then Stone and Duchene are pretty much going to dictate the entire market. Pretty much every club will be holding onto their best assets for these two.
- Unlikely, but maybe if Panarin gives a definite "no" to re-signing (I expect he will) and CBJ doesn't feel confident about making a good run this year he becomes available too. I ultimately expect his name will float around before the deadline but he won't actually be moved, but if he is...oof.
- If both Stone and Duchene become available, when is the last time two rentals of that calibre were actually moved at a deadline? Ottawa is such an oddity -- most teams with players as good as Stone and Duchene have either re-signed them already or are in a position to make the playoffs themselves and hang onto their rentals.
TIER 2
- Kevin Hayes leads the secondary group, but he's going to be second on everyone's radar after Duchene. In many years Hayes might be the top rental target, but this year I expect the Rangers - unless they sell him now - are going to be waiting to move Hayes until after Duchene is moved / after some teams feel they are out on Duchene, and he'll be getting a correspondingly comparatively lower return -- especially since whatever Duchene gets will set the maximum market for everybody else (except Stone / Panarin).
- Micheal Ferland
- Wayne Simmonds
- Jordan Eberle
- Ryan Dzingel
- Gustav Nyquist
- Mats Zuccarello
- Marcus Johansson
MAYBES
- I think Anders Lee will be re-signed, but I thought he'd be re-signed a little while ago. Maybe if talks don't go well there Lou decides not to lose another rental for nothing?
- Brock Nelson - See above
- Eric Staal, if the Wild drop off and feel they won't make the playoffs and / or just decide to focus on the future a little more. Given his performance last year and decent showing this year maybe he becomes just as appealing to Hayes, or moreso, for teams solely looking for a rental for just this year.
- Derek Brassard, not likely since the Pens are playing well, but he also isn't fitting in well there. Maybe the Pens look to replace Brassard with someone else via another trade and sell him off.
- Jacob Silfverberg
The interesting part about the above is they are all pending UFAs, and while a few might stay with their teams or be re-signed (the maybe category), it seems the rest are all going to be very actively available with the selling clubs having real motivations to get rid of them for something.
And then there's the entire non-rental market for forwards. There you perhaps have a few Minny guys (Coyle, Nino), Toffoli, Burakovsky, Brayden Schenn, Alex Wennberg (doesn't seem to be working out too well in CBJ), Anisimov, and Saad.
Then there are a few big names that could float around like Vladimir Taresenko. I expect if he's traded it'll be in the off-season near the draft just before his full NTC kicks in (I think it's a real possibility he is moved), but if he's remotely seriously available at the deadline then he'd be right in the top group of forwards and by far commanding the highest price.
And then there are the defensmen, who will also take away futures available for the forwards. Most notably Muzzin, it seems, but perhaps Martinez, maybe Edler if the Canucks can convince him to waive, maybe Tanev. And then a couple goaltenders as well: Bob potentially and Howard.
Then there will always be a couple of surprise names available, e.g. last year I didn't expect Hartman to be available. Maybe a team like Arizona becomes a seller of a couple pieces.
I also wonder if some teams this year aren't going to be as interested in buying, especially if a team that is already a contender (e.g. the Pens, Tampa, Nashville, Winnipeg, etc.) are the beneficiaries of Duchene / Stone. If you're a "secondary contender" (e.g. the Boston Bruins), behind the main group of contenders like Tampa, the Pens, and Washington, then how much are you willing to actually offer for a rental Kevin Hayes if a contending club, who were already better than you, add someone like a Duchene or Stone who is clearly better than Hayes? I could see some clubs like Boston already preferring a longer term option like Brayden Schenn rather than trying to go for it with a rental in a year where there are other teams clearly ahead.
The standings already this year seem more divided than prior years -- fewer teams with genuine playoff hopes. In the East only Montreal and Carolina, of the teams on the outside looking in, have genuine playoff shots IMO. Then it's the Rangers, Panthers, and Devils...and the Rangers have openly announced a rebuild, the Panthers are 10 points out, and the Devils are 11 points out and likely also selling. So there are already really only 10 teams competing for 8 playoff spots in the East. In the West, I think only Anaheim, Edmonton, and Vancouver are within realistic striking distance amongst those on the outside. Arizona is only 6 points out but with their injuries I have a tough time seeing them making a run. Edmonton will definitely go all-in to make the playoffs, Anaheim won't give up unless their spectacular losing streak continues, and Vancouver...who knows. They probably should be selling, in fact, but with that management and ownership they might want to really push for the post-season. But will, that's 11 teams for 8 playoff spots.
And the key is every year there are only a finite amount of futures moved. Fans of a bunch of the teams selling the above players think they all have shots at first round picks. However, in the 30 days leading up to the deadline in prior years, these are the amount of 1sts moved for rentals.
2018 - four 1sts (Nash, Brassard, Kane [conditional], Stastny.
2017 - two 1sts (Hanzal, Shattenkirk)
2016 - one 1st (Ladd)
2015 - four 1sts (Coburn, Yandle, Vermette, Sekera [conditional])
2014 - two 1sts (St. Louis, Miller)
2013 - three 1sts (Pominville, Bouwmeester, Iginla)
2012 - two 1sts (Quincey (lol), Gaustad)
So pretty much two to four 1st rounders are available every deadline for rentals. In past years some "meh" players have gotten 1sts, e.g. Hanzal, Gaustad, Vermette, so some fans now think their mediocre players can all get 1sts too, but those were all years with a terrible selection of availability. Hanzal in 2017 was the best rental forward available. This year there are several all better than him. If both Duchene and Stone are somehow moved then I'd expect those two right off the bat will remove two 2019 1sts from the discussion, Hayes will get one I'm sure, but since he won't be the best UFA forward available at all I don't think he'll get another high end piece on top of that like some Rangers fans are thinking. That sort of deal will be reserved for Duchene. And pretty much everybody else -- Nyquist, Dzingel, Zuccarello etc. -- will be out of luck for 1st rounders I imagine. Simmonds might get one, simply because teams go stupid over guys like him. Like many deadlines, e.g. with McDonagh last year, some non-UFAs will likely get traded that could take away a couple of available 1sts (or 1sts that were never available for rentals), e.g. Schenn and Muzzin.
Seems that this year a lot of teams hoping to make the playoffs and in the bubble range might have an opportunity to buy guys like Ferland, Nyquist, and Zuccarello for secondary assets, like 2nd round picks, 3rd round picks, and B and C prospects. The market will be relatively too flooded IMO for the sellers to have much other choice.
Relative to the Avs I think this might mean that Lebrun was onto something the other day. I could see bubble teams willing to part with mediocre future pieces in this market to try to just make the playoffs, rather than to make a serious cup run. I could see Sakic being in that group and looking to keep pace with the other bubble teams to pick up one of these guys with secondary assets, sort of like he tried with Boedker, except this year maybe he doesn't even have to move a 2nd.
Anyways, this is basically just me thinking aloud. Might be an actually interesting deadline this year with a few high end players dominating the market, and the host of middling players who normally get good returns might be cheaply available to a seemingly smaller number of buyers than prior seasons.
I've been reading about how this is a buyers deadline, so I decided to take a further look at it, mainly out of curiosity. It actually seems like it's going to be such an extreme buyers market that will drive the prices down on everybody. Just looking at the rental forwards and who could be available there:
TIER 1
- It's actually possible both Stone and Duchene will be available. I think Duchene isn't re-signing whatsoever, and given how he's performed this year + the last 45 games of last year he's going to be one heck of a rental.
- I could see Stone re-signing in Ottawa, but if he also becomes available then Stone and Duchene are pretty much going to dictate the entire market. Pretty much every club will be holding onto their best assets for these two.
- Unlikely, but maybe if Panarin gives a definite "no" to re-signing (I expect he will) and CBJ doesn't feel confident about making a good run this year he becomes available too. I ultimately expect his name will float around before the deadline but he won't actually be moved, but if he is...oof.
- If both Stone and Duchene become available, when is the last time two rentals of that calibre were actually moved at a deadline? Ottawa is such an oddity -- most teams with players as good as Stone and Duchene have either re-signed them already or are in a position to make the playoffs themselves and hang onto their rentals.
TIER 2
- Kevin Hayes leads the secondary group, but he's going to be second on everyone's radar after Duchene. In many years Hayes might be the top rental target, but this year I expect the Rangers - unless they sell him now - are going to be waiting to move Hayes until after Duchene is moved / after some teams feel they are out on Duchene, and he'll be getting a correspondingly comparatively lower return -- especially since whatever Duchene gets will set the maximum market for everybody else (except Stone / Panarin).
- Micheal Ferland
- Wayne Simmonds
- Jordan Eberle
- Ryan Dzingel
- Gustav Nyquist
- Mats Zuccarello
- Marcus Johansson
MAYBES
- I think Anders Lee will be re-signed, but I thought he'd be re-signed a little while ago. Maybe if talks don't go well there Lou decides not to lose another rental for nothing?
- Brock Nelson - See above
- Eric Staal, if the Wild drop off and feel they won't make the playoffs and / or just decide to focus on the future a little more. Given his performance last year and decent showing this year maybe he becomes just as appealing to Hayes, or moreso, for teams solely looking for a rental for just this year.
- Derek Brassard, not likely since the Pens are playing well, but he also isn't fitting in well there. Maybe the Pens look to replace Brassard with someone else via another trade and sell him off.
- Jacob Silfverberg
The interesting part about the above is they are all pending UFAs, and while a few might stay with their teams or be re-signed (the maybe category), it seems the rest are all going to be very actively available with the selling clubs having real motivations to get rid of them for something.
And then there's the entire non-rental market for forwards. There you perhaps have a few Minny guys (Coyle, Nino), Toffoli, Burakovsky, Brayden Schenn, Alex Wennberg (doesn't seem to be working out too well in CBJ), Anisimov, and Saad.
Then there are a few big names that could float around like Vladimir Taresenko. I expect if he's traded it'll be in the off-season near the draft just before his full NTC kicks in (I think it's a real possibility he is moved), but if he's remotely seriously available at the deadline then he'd be right in the top group of forwards and by far commanding the highest price.
And then there are the defensmen, who will also take away futures available for the forwards. Most notably Muzzin, it seems, but perhaps Martinez, maybe Edler if the Canucks can convince him to waive, maybe Tanev. And then a couple goaltenders as well: Bob potentially and Howard.
Then there will always be a couple of surprise names available, e.g. last year I didn't expect Hartman to be available. Maybe a team like Arizona becomes a seller of a couple pieces.
I also wonder if some teams this year aren't going to be as interested in buying, especially if a team that is already a contender (e.g. the Pens, Tampa, Nashville, Winnipeg, etc.) are the beneficiaries of Duchene / Stone. If you're a "secondary contender" (e.g. the Boston Bruins), behind the main group of contenders like Tampa, the Pens, and Washington, then how much are you willing to actually offer for a rental Kevin Hayes if a contending club, who were already better than you, add someone like a Duchene or Stone who is clearly better than Hayes? I could see some clubs like Boston already preferring a longer term option like Brayden Schenn rather than trying to go for it with a rental in a year where there are other teams clearly ahead.
The standings already this year seem more divided than prior years -- fewer teams with genuine playoff hopes. In the East only Montreal and Carolina, of the teams on the outside looking in, have genuine playoff shots IMO. Then it's the Rangers, Panthers, and Devils...and the Rangers have openly announced a rebuild, the Panthers are 10 points out, and the Devils are 11 points out and likely also selling. So there are already really only 10 teams competing for 8 playoff spots in the East. In the West, I think only Anaheim, Edmonton, and Vancouver are within realistic striking distance amongst those on the outside. Arizona is only 6 points out but with their injuries I have a tough time seeing them making a run. Edmonton will definitely go all-in to make the playoffs, Anaheim won't give up unless their spectacular losing streak continues, and Vancouver...who knows. They probably should be selling, in fact, but with that management and ownership they might want to really push for the post-season. But will, that's 11 teams for 8 playoff spots.
And the key is every year there are only a finite amount of futures moved. Fans of a bunch of the teams selling the above players think they all have shots at first round picks. However, in the 30 days leading up to the deadline in prior years, these are the amount of 1sts moved for rentals.
2018 - four 1sts (Nash, Brassard, Kane [conditional], Stastny.
2017 - two 1sts (Hanzal, Shattenkirk)
2016 - one 1st (Ladd)
2015 - four 1sts (Coburn, Yandle, Vermette, Sekera [conditional])
2014 - two 1sts (St. Louis, Miller)
2013 - three 1sts (Pominville, Bouwmeester, Iginla)
2012 - two 1sts (Quincey (lol), Gaustad)
So pretty much two to four 1st rounders are available every deadline for rentals. In past years some "meh" players have gotten 1sts, e.g. Hanzal, Gaustad, Vermette, so some fans now think their mediocre players can all get 1sts too, but those were all years with a terrible selection of availability. Hanzal in 2017 was the best rental forward available. This year there are several all better than him. If both Duchene and Stone are somehow moved then I'd expect those two right off the bat will remove two 2019 1sts from the discussion, Hayes will get one I'm sure, but since he won't be the best UFA forward available at all I don't think he'll get another high end piece on top of that like some Rangers fans are thinking. That sort of deal will be reserved for Duchene. And pretty much everybody else -- Nyquist, Dzingel, Zuccarello etc. -- will be out of luck for 1st rounders I imagine. Simmonds might get one, simply because teams go stupid over guys like him. Like many deadlines, e.g. with McDonagh last year, some non-UFAs will likely get traded that could take away a couple of available 1sts (or 1sts that were never available for rentals), e.g. Schenn and Muzzin.
Seems that this year a lot of teams hoping to make the playoffs and in the bubble range might have an opportunity to buy guys like Ferland, Nyquist, and Zuccarello for secondary assets, like 2nd round picks, 3rd round picks, and B and C prospects. The market will be relatively too flooded IMO for the sellers to have much other choice.
Relative to the Avs I think this might mean that Lebrun was onto something the other day. I could see bubble teams willing to part with mediocre future pieces in this market to try to just make the playoffs, rather than to make a serious cup run. I could see Sakic being in that group and looking to keep pace with the other bubble teams to pick up one of these guys with secondary assets, sort of like he tried with Boedker, except this year maybe he doesn't even have to move a 2nd.
Anyways, this is basically just me thinking aloud. Might be an actually interesting deadline this year with a few high end players dominating the market, and the host of middling players who normally get good returns might be cheaply available to a seemingly smaller number of buyers than prior seasons.
Last edited:
Ceremony
blahem
- Jun 8, 2012
- 113,195
- 15,407
Stone, Matthew and Panarin would make a wonderful second line.
It is going to be an extreme buyers market.
Theres like 10 teams that are 10+ points out of the playoff picture already.
Theres like 10 teams that are 10+ points out of the playoff picture already.
Avs_19
Registered User
- Jun 28, 2007
- 84,679
- 32,461
Friedman: "I think there are a lot of teams that have said they're sellers. I think they're worried that unless they have a real difference maker, they're going to get stuck because it's a buyers market."
Sounds like a good time to make a move that might not cost too much but could help the Avs.
cgf
FireBednarsSuccessor
Would be cool if the crap market pushes some teams to extend pieces they were going to sell, so they can sell pieces with term that they were going to keep. Like NYR with Zibby n Hayes 
It is. Unfortunately I think itll reward the teams that are patient and wait until the true deadline to buy. And the Avs aren't in a position to do that.
If we wait until the deadline to make moves, we'll be sellers at that point.
Avs44
Registered User
- May 16, 2011
- 21,677
- 10,139
As much as the team needs change, I don't think Sakic will do a damn thing. This is the man who let the 2016/2017 season burn to the ground, embarrass the organization, and lead to a turbulent locker-room and a media circus. His patience can be a good thing, but this is its downside. Realistically, he should have made a move in the offseason to address secondary scoring. He didn't, he let it play out, and now not only is secondary scoring an issue but the defense is struggling and the goaltending is problematic.
Sakic had one leak in the offseason, didn't patch it, and now a couple of others have sprung up, so instead of desperately trying to save the ship I expect he'll just let it sink or hope the guys on board can bail harder.
Sakic had one leak in the offseason, didn't patch it, and now a couple of others have sprung up, so instead of desperately trying to save the ship I expect he'll just let it sink or hope the guys on board can bail harder.
- Oct 24, 2008
- 22,430
- 29,421
MacKinnon
Rantanen
Landeskog
Kaut
Makar
Girard
Sens 1st
Avs 1st
—
Seriously, I would strongly consider trading every other contracted player, unsigned prospect, draft pick, coach/scout, whatever.
Avs 1st goes on this list now because of how bad we suck and not knowing just how far down we may drop.
Rantanen
Landeskog
Kaut
Makar
Girard
Sens 1st
Avs 1st
—
Seriously, I would strongly consider trading every other contracted player, unsigned prospect, draft pick, coach/scout, whatever.
Avs 1st goes on this list now because of how bad we suck and not knowing just how far down we may drop.
- Oct 24, 2008
- 22,430
- 29,421
You wouldn’t trade these two guys if somebody offered you a good deal?
Seriously?
A playoff team calls you today and offers you a 1st round pick for both of them. Tell me you’re rejecting.
Compher and Soda deserve to stay as well.
Things are bad right now but I dont think a panic move is going to help. Do something small like giving Francouz an opportunity to start. Get Zadorov back in the lineup.
But at this point we're deep enough into the season that I dont think a massive change like firing the coach or giving up a bunch of high value futures for short term help is the solution.
I think we have to ride this season out now and see if the guys we have here now can right this sinking ship themselves. If not, we need to be the most active team this summer plain and simple. New coach, new secondary scoring, new depth pieces, new goaltending. The whole 9 yards.
Things are bad right now but I dont think a panic move is going to help. Do something small like giving Francouz an opportunity to start. Get Zadorov back in the lineup.
But at this point we're deep enough into the season that I dont think a massive change like firing the coach or giving up a bunch of high value futures for short term help is the solution.
I think we have to ride this season out now and see if the guys we have here now can right this sinking ship themselves. If not, we need to be the most active team this summer plain and simple. New coach, new secondary scoring, new depth pieces, new goaltending. The whole 9 yards.
CB Joe
Registered User
- Oct 12, 2008
- 7,739
- 1,115
Yea I would. A late 1st gets this team no where for 3+ years, if they even hit on the pick. Cole is playing better than most of the defenseman and Soderberg's the best forward outside the big 3.
dahrougem2
Registered User
Soderberg I'm rejecting, Cole I'm sending Bettman the paperwork while still on the phone.
dahrougem2
Registered User
You just can't do that, though. Not with how they're playing. We already KNOW MacKinnon is frustrated like crazy not having any help outside of Mikko and Landeskog.
Sakic needs to understand that the team HE has built blows, outside of the top line. He's got to right this ship, because the players aren't going to.
Nah. This is how teams dig themselves deeper into a mess. By making dumb decisions based on small samples.
If a deal makes sense at the deadline sure pull the trigger. Anything else would be terrible.
dahrougem2
Registered User
Nobody is saying deal a top prospect for a pure rental. But if teams that are going to be sellers are willing to listen on B-level prospects or 2nd/3rd/4th round picks, Sakic would be moronic not to jump all over that.
Tyson Jost needs the AHL, badly. He, Dries, and O'Connor can all go there together and Bourque can be our 13th forward. Andrighetto can be traded for literally anything or put on waivers, he's just way, way too redundant.
This team needs to run:
Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen
XXX - Compher - XXX
XXX - Soderberg - Nieto/Calvert
Wilson - Kerfoot - Nieto/Calvert
Now, I don't think nor do I expect Sakic to trade for three forwards midway through a season. I wouldn't expect that of any GM, that's just way too hard to accomplish. But at the very least, he needs to bring in one legitimate top-9 forward that should be able to play top-6 and help the 2nd unit PP. Doing nothing and watching as this team misses the playoffs would be a failure.
I agree that if the price makes sense we need to make a move. But no overpayment moves or anything like that. And with our struggles right now teams are gonna try and take advantage of us in any negotiations so making a move right now probably doesn't bode well for us.
We really just need to play things out for the next 2-3 weeks and hope this team can pull themselves out of this funk now so we can be in a position to take advantage of sellers at the deadline instead of having to be sellers ourselves.
Even if we could go .500 the next 3 weeks, it would put us in a position where addibg a player or two at the deadline is a viable option.
We really just need to play things out for the next 2-3 weeks and hope this team can pull themselves out of this funk now so we can be in a position to take advantage of sellers at the deadline instead of having to be sellers ourselves.
Even if we could go .500 the next 3 weeks, it would put us in a position where addibg a player or two at the deadline is a viable option.
SoundwaveIsCharisma
Moderator
Another problem with another losing season is, who is going to want to sign with the Avs with their inability to compete regularly
Pacman33
#teamZ
- Feb 9, 2017
- 1,733
- 645
We wouldn't be able to bring in a Stone/Panarin/Karlsson type, but we could definitely still bring in some secondary scoring level players. Along the lines of Hayes/Silfvetberg/Ferland
Avs44
Registered User
- May 16, 2011
- 21,677
- 10,139
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