Speculation: Avs macro issues thread

[dahrougem2]

The funny thing about that is that's what a lot of people here would like to see. I think you're telling the wrong people to have patience.

What I see from certain people are posts suggesting this front office doesn't care about it's minor league club. Sakic/Roy took over in 2013. From that draft, MacKinnon and Bigras are currently in the NHL; Butcher and Storm are in the NCAA; Geertsen and Martin have split time between the ECHL and AHL; and Westlund doesn't really have a future here. They've signed Everberg, Rendulic, and Martinsen from European clubs and have been patient with the former two, and the latter (not that he should be) is currently in the NHL.

The rest of their picks either aren't old enough to play in the AHL, or are overseas. Majority of the players currently in the AHL are from the previous regime, and they haven't shown much of anything (though I personally think Agozzino has an NHL future). I just don't think it's really fair to criticize this regime and their philosophy regarding the AHL club and development of young players because their picks haven't graduated to that level yet. Bleackley and Wood being traded hurt for some, I get that, since they both probably could have played in the AHL next season (Bleackley anyways), but I'm very happy so far with Boedker. But I do believe this regime is willing to be patient with player development. I just think they're wanting to develop their players. The players from the previous regime, the Siemens', the Bourke's, the Agozzino's, the Smith's, the Hishon's, I think they were simply willing to wait and see if any of them amount to anything but if not, they'll move on from them since they didn't bring them in. Right or wrong, that's how I think this regime operates. And to be fair to them, players brought in from the previous regime aren't all that good.

 

[Hennessy]

I don't care what the AHL club does in the standings. As long as players develop, they can come in last every year. Marlies are big now, but until that translates they may as well be the Chicago Wolves of a while back.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Wouldn't keeping Everberg and Rendulic down be a sign they are trying to develop them into better players?

Bigras is just better than Siemens I would imagine. Just because a stud like Bigras is given every oppurtunity doesn't mean others are being ignored. There is more to the development process than just giving guys as much ice time as possible.

Maybe if they are still around next year and get another shot.

Bigras is better but even when he was called up Siemens wasn't put in that role. In his third year. And now he might be out the door too.

I don't care what the AHL club does in the standings. As long as players develop, they can come in last every year. Marlies are big now, but until that translates they may as well be the Chicago Wolves of a while back.

I know most people don't care what the AHL team does. Im not trying to make people fans of that team. It's not an entity that operates in a vacuum though. People should care what the environment is where the org's top prospects are playing is like and how that effects their development. That and concerns about the talent level on the team directly translates to the quality of available callups and eventual depth for the Avs.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

What I see from certain people are posts suggesting this front office doesn't care about it's minor league club. Sakic/Roy took over in 2013. From that draft, MacKinnon and Bigras are currently in the NHL; Butcher and Storm are in the NCAA; Geertsen and Martin have split time between the ECHL and AHL; and Westlund doesn't really have a future here. They've signed Everberg, Rendulic, and Martinsen from European clubs and have been patient with the former two, and the latter (not that he should be) is currently in the NHL.

The rest of their picks either aren't old enough to play in the AHL, or are overseas. Majority of the players currently in the AHL are from the previous regime, and they haven't shown much of anything (though I personally think Agozzino has an NHL future). I just don't think it's really fair to criticize this regime and their philosophy regarding the AHL club and development of young players because their picks haven't graduated to that level yet. Bleackley and Wood being traded hurt for some, I get that, since they both probably could have played in the AHL next season (Bleackley anyways), but I'm very happy so far with Boedker. But I do believe this regime is willing to be patient with player development. I just think they're wanting to develop their players. The players from the previous regime, the Siemens', the Bourke's, the Agozzino's, the Smith's, the Hishon's, I think they were simply willing to wait and see if any of them amount to anything but if not, they'll move on from them since they didn't bring them in. Right or wrong, that's how I think this regime operates. And to be fair to them, players brought in from the previous regime aren't all that good.

roy/Sakic's guys are actually the majority according to eliteprospects (not sure how up to date they are). Both current goalies. Siemens is the only Dman left over. And 5 of the 9 forwards with NHL contracts. A big problem is that they are carrying 7 AHL/ECHL forwards right now, plus Hamonic on D. 14 out of 27 on the current roster are their guys, 8 are ECHL/AHL players, and only 5 are left over from previous regime.

Maybe if they are still around next year and get another shot.

Bigras is better but even when he was called up Siemens wasn't put in that role. In his third year. And now he might be out the door too.



I know most people don't care what the AHL team does. Im not trying to make people fans of that team. It's not an entity that operates in a vacuum though. People should care what the environment is where the org's top prospects are playing is like and how that effects their development. That and concerns about the talent level on the team directly translates to the quality of available callups and eventual depth for the Avs.

I don't see how that's a sign they are not trying to develop Siemens.

 

[agentblack]

Have there been examples of bad AHL teams that produced plenty of NHL talent? Just curious

 

[5280]

.....

 

[dahrougem2]

roy/Sakic's guys are actually the majority according to eliteprospects (not sure how up to date they are). Both current goalies. Siemens is the only Dman left over. And 5 of the 9 forwards with NHL contracts. A big problem is that they are carrying 7 AHL/ECHL forwards right now, plus Hamonic on D. 14 out of 27 on the current roster are their guys, 8 are ECHL/AHL players, and only 5 are left over from previous regime.

I'm not speaking total players they've brought in to the AHL club, I'm speaking of prospects that were either drafted or signed from Europe/NCAA. Obviously players like Mat Clark, Max Noreau, Nate Guenin, Taylor Beck etc were brought in by this regime but those are purely AHL players. They're players who are in San Antonio to help the development of younger players and to make the team competitive (thank god Guenin is there now) since they're career AHL'ers. But in terms of prospects down there? Right now Rantanen, Zadorov, Geertsen, Will, Everberg, and Rendulic are down there. By next season Rantanen and Zadorov should be here, but I'd also expect players like Compher, Butcher, Storm, Nantel, and maybe even Pepin to be down there replenishing the depth.

What I'm saying is basically this regime doesn't seem to be rushing anyone from a development standpoint save for Chris Bigras, and he's arguably NHL-ready at this stage. They need some time for their prospects to graduate junior/college hockey in order to make an impact on the AHL.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I thought that was a good question about Chicago and LA's teams. LA won the championship last year and are very good this year as is Chicago's. I don't think it's a coincidence, especially those teams with strong developmental systems such as LA and Detroit that mirror what their NHL team tries to do. I don't think it's a guarantee as some AHL teams do it more with superstar career AHLers but if a NHL team wants to be a contender their AHL team should at least be playoff worthy. And I do believe that this is what Sakic and Roy want. I believe that they want to instill a winning mentality that starts from there, I just have questions that they have the best plan to achieve this.

I don't see how that's a sign they are not trying to develop Siemens.

Should he be above third pair at this point?

 

[agentblack]

Werent Tampa's affiliate, Norfolk? i believe pretty good too right? Hell they even brought up Coop from there along with his boys that played for him.
I dont know , I cant see the problem with winning..anywhere. Its sports. Why would you want a losing atmosphere to tie your club to?

 

[5280]

I thought that was a good question about Chicago and LA's teams. LA won the championship last year and are very good this year as is Chicago's. I don't think it's a coincidence, especially those teams with strong developmental systems such as LA and Detroit that mirror what their NHL team tries to do. I don't think it's a guarantee as some AHL teams do it more with superstar career AHLers but if a NHL team wants to be a contender their AHL team should at least be playoff worthy. And I do believe that this is what Sakic and Roy want. I believe that they want to instill a winning mentality that starts from there, I just have questions that they have the best plan to achieve this.



Should he be above third pair at this point?

Has anyone figured out why they kept Chynoweth? My impression is not that good of him. He hasn't won anything anywhere. Is he just a safe option? Do they really like him? Has he ever developed anyone for the NHL well?

 

[tigervixxxen]

What I see from certain people are posts suggesting this front office doesn't care about it's minor league club. Sakic/Roy took over in 2013. From that draft, MacKinnon and Bigras are currently in the NHL; Butcher and Storm are in the NCAA; Geertsen and Martin have split time between the ECHL and AHL; and Westlund doesn't really have a future here. They've signed Everberg, Rendulic, and Martinsen from European clubs and have been patient with the former two, and the latter (not that he should be) is currently in the NHL.

The rest of their picks either aren't old enough to play in the AHL, or are overseas. Majority of the players currently in the AHL are from the previous regime, and they haven't shown much of anything (though I personally think Agozzino has an NHL future). I just don't think it's really fair to criticize this regime and their philosophy regarding the AHL club and development of young players because their picks haven't graduated to that level yet. Bleackley and Wood being traded hurt for some, I get that, since they both probably could have played in the AHL next season (Bleackley anyways), but I'm very happy so far with Boedker. But I do believe this regime is willing to be patient with player development. I just think they're wanting to develop their players. The players from the previous regime, the Siemens', the Bourke's, the Agozzino's, the Smith's, the Hishon's, I think they were simply willing to wait and see if any of them amount to anything but if not, they'll move on from them since they didn't bring them in. Right or wrong, that's how I think this regime operates. And to be fair to them, players brought in from the previous regime aren't all that good.

I'm not speaking total players they've brought in to the AHL club, I'm speaking of prospects that were either drafted or signed from Europe/NCAA. Obviously players like Mat Clark, Max Noreau, Nate Guenin, Taylor Beck etc were brought in by this regime but those are purely AHL players. They're players who are in San Antonio to help the development of younger players and to make the team competitive (thank god Guenin is there now) since they're career AHL'ers. But in terms of prospects down there? Right now Rantanen, Zadorov, Geertsen, Will, Everberg, and Rendulic are down there. By next season Rantanen and Zadorov should be here, but I'd also expect players like Compher, Butcher, Storm, Nantel, and maybe even Pepin to be down there replenishing the depth.

What I'm saying is basically this regime doesn't seem to be rushing anyone from a development standpoint save for Chris Bigras, and he's arguably NHL-ready at this stage. They need some time for their prospects to graduate junior/college hockey in order to make an impact on the AHL.

I think I get what you are saying, they haven't had a chance to show guys they brought in will have a chance or not. Their first draft class are still rookies and we don't know if Geertsen and the like will get a real opportunity with the big club. And that's all true and we wont really know for a few years.

Im saying there are a few indicators that leave me concerned. One is guys they have brought in like Everberg and Rendulic were essentially forgotten about this year. Maybe the no injury situation impacted that but they had chances to bring them up when shorthanded and haven't. We'll see if they are back next year or not. Two, they've had three draft classes and so far they've signed a good amount from one, punted one and the third looks promising but haven't signed anyone from that class either. Are they just going to be used as currency next season when the Avs decide to "go for it". I know the argument will be no, they didn't like the 2014 class and that's what got Pracey fired but still, other than Mikko nobody got signed early and what will the Avs have to give next deadline? Three, they've managed to gain one draft pick in three years and that took moving a core player. They've given 2x 2nds, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 2x 6th. Obviously got their 2nd and 6th back and gave back a 6th they got. Now people will say that's at least not their 1st and no second this deadline at least. And that's my point of they have time for their high end guys but they don't have much an interest in creating a volume of guys, developing them and then selecting the ones who have become worked their way up to being real options for the Avs. It's more like they identify who their options are early and then focus on them. They also do the least of any team in regards to development camp, rookie camp tournaments and camp scrimmages and preseason play. Some/a lot of all this I have and can chalk up to the Avs doing things differently, not following the norm and that's all fine but it does leave me concerned when I'm not seeing a whole lot of improvement and some real big questions heading into next year.

I'm not trying to turn this into TV's giant rant but you guys should know me by now, I'm not trying to be negative for the sake of it or think that the regime is awful and should get fired. I just find a lot of this distressing especially when my whole mindset was about patience and building things a certain way. I thought a lot of things were different and I feel like they really aren't so much. I'm still excited to see a few certain guys come up and I have an open mind on the guys they are going to bring in this summer, I'll always love the draft (assuming we don't get rid of more picks). I just am not happy with what I've seen lately and can't pretend I am. I'm sorry, I don't need to make this whole convo all about me. It's just stuff I think about a lot.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Werent Tampa's affiliate, Norfolk? i believe pretty good too right? Hell they even brought up Coop from there along with his boys that played for him.
I dont know , I cant see the problem with winning..anywhere. Its sports. Why would you want a losing atmosphere to tie your club to?

Syracuse. They won a couple years ago. Now they aren't as good, I think the exodus of a lot of talent and Coop himself obviously. But they are in the east and we literally never play them. It's almost like a whole different league over there.

Has anyone figured out why they kept Chynoweth? My impression is not that good of him. He hasn't won anything anywhere. Is he just a safe option? Do they really like him? Has he ever developed anyone for the NHL well?

That's another good question. I don't know. If they were serious about winning down there you'd think they would try to get a better coach. That kinda harkens back to it still being a lot of PL's "in the family" mentality rather than trying to truly build a winner. I dont think all the problems are on Dean, a severe lack of talent I think has always been the main culprit but sure maybe they should look at making a change there sometime. Dean has a lot of experience, he was a NHL player for a long time, the WHL trophy is named after his father. But as far as his own winning pedigree as a coach, no I dont think there's much.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I'm not speaking total players they've brought in to the AHL club, I'm speaking of prospects that were either drafted or signed from Europe/NCAA. Obviously players like Mat Clark, Max Noreau, Nate Guenin, Taylor Beck etc were brought in by this regime but those are purely AHL players. They're players who are in San Antonio to help the development of younger players and to make the team competitive (thank god Guenin is there now) since they're career AHL'ers. But in terms of prospects down there? Right now Rantanen, Zadorov, Geertsen, Will, Everberg, and Rendulic are down there. By next season Rantanen and Zadorov should be here, but I'd also expect players like Compher, Butcher, Storm, Nantel, and maybe even Pepin to be down there replenishing the depth.

What I'm saying is basically this regime doesn't seem to be rushing anyone from a development standpoint save for Chris Bigras, and he's arguably NHL-ready at this stage. They need some time for their prospects to graduate junior/college hockey in order to make an impact on the AHL.

In that case there are only 3 (Siemens, Hishon, Bourke) left over prospects on the current team.

 

[5280]

Syracuse. They won a couple years ago. Now they aren't as good, I think the exodus of a lot of talent and Coop himself obviously. But they are in the east and we literally never play them. It's almost like a whole different league over there.



That's another good question. I don't know. If they were serious about winning down there you'd think they would try to get a better coach. That kinda harkens back to it still being a lot of PL's "in the family" mentality rather than trying to truly build a winner. I dont think all the problems are on Dean, a severe lack of talent I think has always been the main culprit but sure maybe they should look at making a change there sometime. Dean has a lot of experience, he was a NHL player for a long time, the WHL trophy is named after his father. But as far as his own winning pedigree as a coach, no I dont think there's much.

Not to throw him under the bus, I was just wondering because it seemed weird to me to keep him in the first place. It would be interesting to hear their thought process on this situation (and many more, actually).

 

[dahrougem2]

In that case there are only 3 (Siemens, Hishon, Bourke) left over prospects on the current team.

Add Agozzino and Maggio to that list.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Have there been examples of bad AHL teams that produced plenty of NHL talent? Just curious

in recent history, no i don't think so.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I thought that was a good question about Chicago and LA's teams. LA won the championship last year and are very good this year as is Chicago's. I don't think it's a coincidence, especially those teams with strong developmental systems such as LA and Detroit that mirror what their NHL team tries to do. I don't think it's a guarantee as some AHL teams do it more with superstar career AHLers but if a NHL team wants to be a contender their AHL team should at least be playoff worthy. And I do believe that this is what Sakic and Roy want. I believe that they want to instill a winning mentality that starts from there, I just have questions that they have the best plan to achieve this.



Should he be above third pair at this point?

Depends on who is ahead of him. Bigras, Zadorov, even Gormley if the staff hasn't given up on him should get higher roles and more time. Just because someone is in a lesser role with lesser ice time doesn't mean they are not trying to develop the player.

Add Agozzino and Maggio to that list.

If you are excluding Beck then Agozzino should be in the "purely AHLer" category. Maggio isn't on an nhl contract so he certainly doesn't count. He is an AHL fill in.

 

[agentblack]

in recent history, no i don't think so.

Cool thanks, i was just asking cause ive heard people say they dont care if SA wins or not as long as they develop their players but it seemed like a odd pov to take about our farm club.

 

[dahrougem2]

If you are excluding Beck then Agozzino should be in the "purely AHLer" category.

He certainly shouldn't.

 

[Foppa2118]

Syracuse. They won a couple years ago. Now they aren't as good, I think the exodus of a lot of talent and Coop himself obviously. But they are in the east and we literally never play them. It's almost like a whole different league over there.

To be technical, TB was with Norfolk when they won the Calder cup. They changed affiliations to Syracuse the following year, and Cooper was hired by TB mid season, but Syracuse went on to the finals and lost to the other model AHL team, Grand Rapids who Detroit runs.

Personally I don't think you need a great AHL team to develop players, though obviously it helps. It's kind of like having a different skilset. Detroit and TB are just good at it, and put a lot of time, energy, and money into it.

The Avs just aren't in a position to change their AHL competitiveness over night. Their best prospects down there (Zadorov, Bigras, Rantanen) are too good to stay long. They'll probably start to get more competitive when they spend on some good vet AHL talent, and have the next wave of Avs prospects trickle in. Guys taken in the middle of the draft that could use 2-3 years development there, and the Avs big club is good enough to be patient with them the way Detroit and TB are.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

He certainly shouldn't.

He is older than Beck (only younger than Street and Bordy). He has been in the system from the beginning and barely has gotten his toes wet. He was given a letter and a really good AHL salary. He is treated more like an AHL vet than a prospect.

 

[Boulder Avalanche]

The issue is that outside top talent that will be playing in the NHL (or are playing in the NHL) the Avalanche are very weak. Players like Rantanen, Bigras, Zadorov, and Pickard all started off in the AHL and are really the only good prospects the team has. Two of those are with the team currently and the argument can be made that Rantanen should have been called up early in the season. That really depletes the players who are not just AHL lifers and that make a difference to a team's success.

 

[DarioinDenver]

At the "macro" level here is where the Avalanche are (in my opinion).

The core has been rebuilt with Duchene, Mackinnon, Landeskog, Johnson and Varlamov. Rantanen is trending to become a part of that core group but until he proves it he's not in that circle of trust.

This process was painful and expensive because of the failed decisions of 2000 to 2008. A time when the drafting and development was abysmal. If you choose to look at the Avs pipeline as a failure in current management it should be noted that a lot of their development pool was promoted to the NHL club at an accelerated rate.

In sum the Avs core is at 3, with possibly 4 forwards. One defenseman and one goalie. All of them young. I'm sure there's debate about Barrie being a core player. Maybe he is. We will know soon enough if the Avs lock him up.

The gold standard since 2010 for playoff teams are Chicago, LA and Boston. Chicago has a core of 3 forwards, 3 defenseman and recently the goalie. LA has had 3 forwards, 1 defenseman and a goalie. You can debate my counts but that's close to what they generally carried. What can't be debated is that each team had some highly paid pieces they needed to lose to keep their core in tact. Chicago has made some pretty famous sacrifices like Byfuglien, Campbell, Bolland, Bickel, Frolik and recently Versteeg and Sharp. They sacrified those players at the alter of the Stanley cup to retain their core of Kane, Toews, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook and yes, Hjalmarsson.

The Avs need to solidify the core of their defense, an area that' been neglected and seems to only build through free agency or trades. Barrie is a specialist and EJ on any given night is a 1,2 or 3 D man but hasn't proven to be an elite number 1 that can carry a line.

What concerns me about the structure of the Avalanche moving forward is that they depending a lot of the development of Zadarov and Bigras. It could pay off but a lot of their success going forward is going to be on these two kids. The other part I think fans will have a hard time coming to terms with is that you can't pay for four elite forwards in your core group if you want any depth in your organization for your defense. If Rantanen is as good as he's projecting there's going to be a really interesting cap decision to be made down the road. They might hold on with these four guys like Chicago did with Sharp, but guys important to the club will just have to go (like O'Reilly).

The other concern is that the Avs can't seem to get every day players outside of their top picks in the draft. Chicago see success because of the Frolik, Kruger, Panarin, Bickell, Bolland, Byfugliens they cycle through their system and trade away. I think what will really launch the organization to that next level is getting depth players that can jump in to a top six/four role on the cheap. They need to get those McGinn kind of players and then move them out as they get expensive. It sucks, but such is the reality of a cap world.

 

[Barklez]

Werent Tampa's affiliate, Norfolk? i believe pretty good too right? Hell they even brought up Coop from there along with his boys that played for him.
I dont know , I cant see the problem with winning..anywhere. Its sports. Why would you want a losing atmosphere to tie your club to?

They were, but they got dropped in 2012 when Tampa picked up Syracuse instead. Tampa and Anaheim actually ended up swapping AHL affiliates.