Speculation: Avs macro issues thread

Alex Jones

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I feel that this discussion is kind of bleeding into every thread, so I think it would be nice to try and corral talk about the larger direction of the organization into one place.

I'll start off the discussion...

What do you guys feel that the Avs organizational objectives are at this point, and how have our recent moves impacted this???
 

Alex Jones

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Another point. I think it is time to start expressing serious concern about the Avs ability to select defensemen. I realize that you are not going to find a lot of sure things to fill your bottom three spots but the Avs have cycled through....


Guenin
Holden
Bodnarchuck
Gormley
Stuart
Redmond


We can go further back to guys like

Hunwick
Zanon
ROB
SOB

I know that you are going to have to take guys with flaws for these spots, but Avs have been going after guys every year for these positions and have never found anybody decent. That is a concern
 

CB Joe

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The price of defenseman is through the roof and availability is slim. I don't expect that to change until expansion comes in and teams have to shuffle players around.

Holden is fine in the top 6 and I'm thinking Guenin, Bodnarchuk, Gormley, and Redmond are gone after this season. That leaves Stuart who might not play another NHL game.

Avs have Bigras and Zadorov to work into the line-up. I don't think the defense will be as much of an issue going forward, perhaps a few growing pains next season but overall pretty good.
 

Freudian

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I think part of the reason for the long list of failed #6 defenders is pro scouting and also coach preferences. Roy and Sakic have been in a arms race to beat the Kings and Blues so they love size and tend to underrate poise and puck skill in players. Even adding Matthias as their type of possession player illustrated this.

The problem with this thinking is we just had a Chicago-Tampa final, which is a different style of hockey.

I don't necessarily think adding all these bums is one of the major problems in the long run. It's just annoying seeing them here, they take up contract and roster spots for no real reason. Eventually they'll be replaced with more skilled players like Bigras/Zadorov because the difference in ability is so significant it will break the spell of Holden love. I hope at least.

As for the long term direction of the team. I think they'll fly the Mission Accomplished banner when the team makes the playoffs. While I think they were genuine when they wanted Avs to be patient and build like Detroit and Tampa, I think the competitive nature of Roy makes them shift away from it when they have short term struggles. This is why I don't like having Roy being so involved in team building. Coaches have short term thinking. It's not a problem. It might even be healthy. But the GM must have the long term health of the team in mind. When GMs start thinking about short term because they are desperate, that's when they trade Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat. I know Sakic is the GM and in theory have last word but it's obvious Roy is as much running things as Sakic does.
 

CB Joe

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I agree that Roy's preference for size at the expense of skill contributed to the addition of some of the dead weight to the roster, but I don't agree it was poor pro scouting.

The availability of established defenseman is slim and prices are high. You can pay a high price or an established bottom pairing defenseman or you can have free shots at boarderline nhl defenseman. I don't blame the front office for trying the lost cost solution first, but they went a little overboard. While a better bottom pair defender would be great, it's not going to fix the Avs, the issues run much deeper than that.
 

Balthazar

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Quit blaming dmen. Even Doughty, who relies mainly on puck possession, would suck playing in our "system".
 

Balthazar

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While you guys focus on dmen, let me ask you a question...

How come our 3 star players (Duchene, Mack and Landy) never became significantly better than they were during their rookie seasons? Did all 3 peak at 18? Or maybe, just maybe, something, somewhere, is wrong?

Remember rookie Landy? Pretty much everyone around the league was like "wow, this guy is going to be a monster". Nope. He's still the same player 4 years later. How about Mack? Mack was poised to become the next superstar after that Calder. Not a sure thing superstar material anymore it seems. He's still virtually the same player today and not many people talk about him. Duchene has a similar path, too. Why? That's not normal. Could happen once, maybe. But not 3 players out of 3. We all had high expectations for these players and none of them are delivering to their (perceived) potential. They all plateaued extremely early.
 
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InjuredChoker

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While you guys focus on dmen, let me ask you a question...

How come our 3 star players (Duchene, Mack and Landy) never became significantly better than they were during their rookie seasons? Did all 3 peak at 18? Or maybe, just maybe, something, somewhere, is wrong?

mack is still so young so i don't think it's fair to say 'never'. 'yet' would fit better. maybe for landeskog too.

i think duchene is quite a bit better than he was on his rookie season.

but yeah, it's a legitimate question. at least there hasn't been significant development since 13-14. maybe it's something else or maybe they just don't have more upside.
 

CB Joe

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This team can't even cycle the puck. I'm not surprised that our top talent is struggling.
 

Balthazar

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mack is still so young so i don't think it's fair to say 'never'. 'yet' would fit better. maybe for landeskog too.

i think duchene is quite a bit better than he was on his rookie season.

but yeah, it's a legitimate question. at least there hasn't been significant development since 13-14. maybe it's something else or maybe they just don't have more upside.

I think all 3 players had their development halted for some reason. They are more talented than what their stats are showing and there's no doubt about that. Duchene and Mack have the raw talent for PPG+ while Landy possess the abilities to become a real power forward.
 

Alex Jones

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I mean it's hard to develop as a skill player when you're having to chase the puck on D most the game. I do think Landeskog and Duchene have improved, Mackinnon hasn't really, that is a concern. I don't know what needs to happen. I think it is a little too easy to just point the finger at Roy for everything.
 

ArWKo

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To me the biggest issue it boils down to is that I think they are more likely to give up on this core before they give up on Patrick (or he gives up on himself). I've said in other threads that I'm not necessarily opposed to moving a core piece to bring in another #1 dman, but that position is primarily held on the basis that I don't think there's anyway Roy isn't coaching this team before a move like that is made.

Criticizing Roy seems to be one sacred cow too far for some people around these parts, but my opinion is that this team would improve most quickly with new HC. Keep Roy in the front office if you want, that's fine, but I can't see this team having more than middling success with Roy at the helm.

Before anyone asks I'm no systems expert so no, I can't lay out an essay for anyone on why I think Roy's system doesn't work, what I do know is this team relies on goaltending WAY to much, they're constantly outshot, even when they've improved SOG differentials, their possession differentials are still through the roof. The team seems incapable of playing a competent 3rd period, some of that is on the players, yeah, but these are the same players that can play really strong 1sts and 2nds and whatever bad habits they might have, they developed them from somewhere and I don't think every guy in the team just unprovoked developed a "sit back, don't make the mistake" mentality out of nothing. Roy now sounds like a broken record with his "we played a solid 40 minutes" mantra and sounds like a coach out of answers when he again feels the need to criticize Corsi and show again that either he doesn't really understand the underlying philosophy or he is just so apathetic to it that he plays it off like it's just another number to bump guys pay come next contract.

I don't think Roy is a terrible coach, I just think he's a thoroughly mediocre coach, and a guy like Dale Hunter who could have all the success in the world in the CHL, but just doesn't have a style of coaching that succeds in the NHL where the fact that every guy is bigger and faster and stronger and smarter means a lot of that stuff from junior won't work, and you can't run a system where you're giving teams so many chances.

I know players are not blameless here, but beyond a thin defense which should hopefully improve in the next couple of years, I still see a forward core that I think is more talented than the product on the ice right now, and to me it's because of the way they are coached.
 

Drij

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What if we trade the rights to say Mikkel Boedker for a defender.
 

ABasin

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While you guys focus on dmen, let me ask you a question...

How come our 3 star players (Duchene, Mack and Landy) never became significantly better than they were during their rookie seasons? Did all 3 peak at 18? Or maybe, just maybe, something, somewhere, is wrong?

Remember rookie Landy? Pretty much everyone around the league was like "wow, this guy is going to be a monster". Nope. He's still the same player 4 years later. How about Mack? Mack was poised to become the next superstar after that Calder. Not a sure thing superstar material anymore it seems. He's still virtually the same player today and not many people talk about him. Duchene has a similar path, too. Why? That's not normal. Could happen once, maybe. But not 3 players out of 3. We all had high expectations for these players and none of them are delivering to their (perceived) potential. They all plateaued extremely early.

This is as big a problem as the lack of depth, IMO. All of these #1/2/3 picks are looking like good players, not great ones.

Good post.
 

Drij

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To me the biggest issue it boils down to is that I think they are more likely to give up on this core before they give up on Patrick (or he gives up on himself). I've said in other threads that I'm not necessarily opposed to moving a core piece to bring in another #1 dman, but that position is primarily held on the basis that I don't think there's anyway Roy isn't coaching this team before a move like that is made.

Criticizing Roy seems to be one sacred cow too far for some people around these parts, but my opinion is that this team would improve most quickly with new HC. Keep Roy in the front office if you want, that's fine, but I can't see this team having more than middling success with Roy at the helm.

Before anyone asks I'm no systems expert so no, I can't lay out an essay for anyone on why I think Roy's system doesn't work, what I do know is this team relies on goaltending WAY to much, they're constantly outshot, even when they've improved SOG differentials, their possession differentials are still through the roof. The team seems incapable of playing a competent 3rd period, some of that is on the players, yeah, but these are the same players that can play really strong 1sts and 2nds and whatever bad habits they might have, they developed them from somewhere and I don't think every guy in the team just unprovoked developed a "sit back, don't make the mistake" mentality out of nothing. Roy now sounds like a broken record with his "we played a solid 40 minutes" mantra and sounds like a coach out of answers when he again feels the need to criticize Corsi and show again that either he doesn't really understand the underlying philosophy or he is just so apathetic to it that he plays it off like it's just another number to bump guys pay come next contract.

I don't think Roy is a terrible coach, I just think he's a thoroughly mediocre coach, and a guy like Dale Hunter who could have all the success in the world in the CHL, but just doesn't have a style of coaching that succeds in the NHL where the fact that every guy is bigger and faster and stronger and smarter means a lot of that stuff from junior won't work, and you can't run a system where you're giving teams so many chances.

I know players are not blameless here, but beyond a thin defense which should hopefully improve in the next couple of years, I still see a forward core that I think is more talented than the product on the ice right now, and to me it's because of the way they are coached.

The players have had many coaches now and still they play the same way.
 
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ArWKo

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I'm talking about head coaches, since the coaching staff will coalesce around a head coaches philosophy, and these guys have had all of two (or just one depending on who were talking about) and those two are Sacco and Roy.
 

JoemAvs

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The players have had many coaches now and still they play the same way.


What?

I mean seriously?
For the majority of those guys Roy is their first and only coach so far. Only Duchene, Varly and EJ were more than rookies or sophomores under Sacco.

Everyone else has basically only seen Roy since they have established themselves in the league and played for the Avs..

I get that Patty is the sacred cow around here for some but can we please be honest and stop with the myth that this team has somehow had so many coaches that it obviously has to be on the players (like you could make a case for in Edmonton).

This current core has only had Roy. A few of them had to suffer through the dark Sacco days (a very awful coach) but not for long.


I mean seriously. Stop it. It is a lie.
 
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ArWKo

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I think that pretty to deny that if the current head coach was not also the team's legendary, HoF, arguably greatest of all time goaltender - that he would be catching a LOT more flack for the way the team plays.

Now obviously this isn't a situation where the team is a bottom feeder, they made the playoffs two years back, they were in the hunt most of last season (without getting into the semantics of how close or far off they really were last year) and here we are again in a position to make the playoffs, but on the outside looking. I know when people talk about getting rid of the coach you think about a team at the bottom of the table which isn't the case here, but I think when you look around the league, it's a lot more common to see the coach go and see what happens before you decide to make major changes to your core players - but instead what we're hearing is if they don't make the playoffs that's exactly what might happen. To me, that's happening because Roy is so integral as part of the front office as well as being HC - if he was just a FO guy, I think he would probably do the same thing, try another coach first then if it's still not working you move on to making big changes with the core - but I don't see Roy stepping aside from head coaching, not at least before making some of these "shake ups" that have been alluded to if they miss the playoffs this year.

Roy HAS showed some adaptability and willingness to embrace some new ideas, but it's been slow, small in scale, and I worry about how far he's both willing to go with adapting to a new league and also how quickly it will all revert when he gets frustrated with changes or the changes aren't going well right away.

He's obviously an extremely competitive and passionate guy and you wonder how much of that affects his ability to take things slower than he might like and handle speed bumps both coaching on the ice and in making personnel moves. When he was a player he could just go out and win games - as a coach it has to be a lot more difficult when you aren't out there on the ice yourself and we've seen him grasp at it with his carousel of lines combinations, some people would argue with the moves he has made in personnel, and it makes me wonder if he's got the patience as a coach to make changes that might need to happen for the team to see long term success.
 

Alex Jones

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I know some of you hate the win now mentality, but if not now when?? Our best players have been together for several years now, and this team is not a regular in the playoffs.

This is not baseball, it is super easy to make the NHL playoffs, over half of the league makes it every year. You simply have to be an average team to play in the playoffs. Yea, we have a poor coach, and yea the depth is not good, but if we really think that we have core that can allow us to compete for a championship we should at least be able to be an average ****ing team.


Some of these guys are not so young anymore. It is apparent ( and not entirely these guys's fault) that this team is still a few years from being decent, I really think we should start looking to recoup some value from guys like EJ, Soda and potentially Varly, if the offers are there.
 

ABasin

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I know some of you hate the win now mentality, but if not now when?? Our best players have been together for several years now, and this team is not a regular in the playoffs.

Because the rebuild in which we got all of said best players.....failed.
 

agentblack

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I feel that this discussion is kind of bleeding into every thread, so I think it would be nice to try and corral talk about the larger direction of the organization into one place.

I'll start off the discussion...

What do you guys feel that the Avs organizational objectives are at this point, and how have our recent moves impacted this???

To make the playoffs. I think thats really it. I honestly dont think they have thought past that point. The problem here is that we arent even a playoff team..yet. We are probably a couple years from that. Which isnt the end of the world really. You just hope they can play competitively and battle till they get to that point. I think another last place season would really hurt this young group. But to fight till the end and just miss at least leaves them with something to hang their hats on. Id rather they have that than make it one year be last the next and so on till eternity.

Another point. I think it is time to start expressing serious concern about the Avs ability to select defensemen. I realize that you are not going to find a lot of sure things to fill your bottom three spots but the Avs have cycled through....


Guenin
Holden
Bodnarchuck
Gormley
Stuart
Redmond


We can go further back to guys like

Hunwick
Zanon
ROB
SOB

I know that you are going to have to take guys with flaws for these spots, but Avs have been going after guys every year for these positions and have never found anybody decent. That is a concern

This is tough question to answer..for me anyway.
I mean you could argue this franchise dating back to the QUE days this franchise has had a difficult time drafting and developing thier own defenceman. Idk maybe its just our "thing" Like how EDM and PIT will always have elite forwards and NJ and MTL will always have great goaltenders. The Avs will always have good to great forwards and an amazing goalie.

But to try to answer specifically yeah there is an issue with this bottom pairing problem cause right now its going to be a rotating mix of "incoming prospect" and "sub NHLer--should be in the AHL" guys for the foreseeable future. It would be nice to have a legit bottom pairing guy that isnt "graduating" at some point creating another hole and a guy that really shouldnt be there.
 

InjuredChoker

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I know some of you hate the win now mentality, but if not now when?? Our best players have been together for several years now, and this team is not a regular in the playoffs.

This is not baseball, it is super easy to make the NHL playoffs, over half of the league makes it every year. You simply have to be an average team to play in the playoffs. Yea, we have a poor coach, and yea the depth is not good, but if we really think that we have core that can allow us to compete for a championship we should at least be able to be an average ****ing team.


Some of these guys are not so young anymore. It is apparent ( and not entirely these guys's fault) that this team is still a few years from being decent, I really think we should start looking to recoup some value from guys like EJ, Soda and potentially Varly, if the offers are there.

EJ just signed 7yr extension last september earlier this season. i don't think it would be smart to trade him.
 

Drij

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What?

I mean seriously?
For the majority of those guys Roy is their first and only coach so far. Only Duchene, Varly and EJ were more than rookies or sophomores under Sacco.

Everyone else has basically only seen Roy since they have established themselves in the league and played for the Avs..

I get that Patty is the sacred cow around here for some but can we please be honest and stop with the myth that this team has somehow had so many coaches that it obviously has to be on the players (like you could make a case for in Edmonton).

This current core has only had Roy. A few of them had to suffer through the dark Sacco days (a very awful coach) but not for long.


I mean seriously. Stop it. It is a lie.

Did you think maybe our best players just suck? seriously when do we stop blaming the coach and not putting the blame on the players ourselves.
 
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ArWKo

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I think having a "win now" mentality is fine - I think this is team in a position to both win and improve at the same time, it's not a bottom feeding team that needs to tear it down, it's not a team a la Vancouver that is past its prime but is still fighting just for the sake of fighting instead of going into the rebuild.

This team CAN win now and continue to improve as its talent flows up the pipelines.

I saw it put well on Twitter this morning, when it comes to coaches you need to ask how many wins is the coach adding as opposed to where the talent would get you. I think there's a lot of talent there with the Avs and more coming up the pipeline, the question for me is can Roy tangibly add wins to the talented group his has.
 

ArWKo

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Did you think maybe our best players just suck? seriously when do we stop blaming the coach and not putting the blame on the players ourselves.

What makes you so sure the players are just awful and that it has nothing to do with coaching. The only head coach other than Roy this team has ever had is Joe Sacco and nobody in the world is going to stand up and defend his coaching skills.

Not just on these boards, but around hockey you will find a ton of people who question Roy's abilities and strategies as a coach, but what, since he's a team legend he's beyond reproach?

When a team with what looks to have a ton of talent isn't succeeding like you would expect, how often is the first move to just ship out and blame the talent? It almost never happens that way, it's the coach that goes first - see Minny, Columbus, Pittsburgh, and that's just this season.

Could it be the players? Absolutely, but it's a lot harder to find and develop talent than it is try a coaching change. Obviously there's only so many Babcocks and Quenvilles or Sutters out there so you can argue a great coach is harder to find than a great player - but do you really think Roy is a great coach who is worth sticking with over players like MacK, Duchene, Barrie, and Landeskog? I certainly haven't seen anything out of his coaching that would make give up on those kids before I gave up on Roy as a coach.
 

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