Average draft positions

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Tap on the Ankle, Sep 26, 2005.

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  1. Tap on the Ankle

    Tap on the Ankle expert analysis

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    Did a little number crunching and came up with the average first pick draft position of every team over the past 10 years. By that I mean the average position of a team's first pick (whether it be 1st round, 2nd, 3rd, etc.. whichever their first pick is, acquired by trade or not) in each entry draft from 1996-2005. Only their first pick though, so when the Canucks drafted 2nd and 3rd overall in 1999, I only counted their first pick in that draft, which was the 2nd overall selection.

    For example, the "18.8" that LA has means that, on average, their first pick of each draft was around 18th-19th overall.

    Not all teams have been around for the past 10 years, so those ones (basically the top 4 on this list) have their first draft year written in brackets. As for Carolina, they didn't start drafting as the Hurricanes until 1997, so I counted Hartford's first 1996 pick into their totals.

    Some of the results are quite surprising, namely Detroit's. I could believe the number when I saw it. Pretty amazing that they've managed to snag up as many good prospects as they have while drafting so low. I mean geez, they're almost taking their first guy in the 3rd round every year.

    While these numbers don't have any real significant meaning, it's interesting to see where every team stacks in terms of average drafting position.

    Code:
    [FONT=Courier New]CBJ      5.1 (2000)
    ATL      5.7 (1999)
    MIN      8.8 (2000)
    NAS      9.0 (1998)
    ANA      13.0
    CAL      12.8
    PIT      12.9
    CHI      14.4
    BUF      14.5
    SJ       14.5
    MTL      15.1
    EDM      15.2
    OTT      15.4
    CAR      16.4
    VAN      17.5
    FLA      17.7
    LA       18.8
    NYR      18.9
    NYI      19.1
    WAS      19.8
    PHO      23.1
    TB       23.6
    BOS      23.9
    NJ       25.4
    DAL      26.7
    PHI      28.0
    STL      30.1
    COL      31.1
    TOR      36.0
    DET      54.9[/FONT]
     
  2. LOL, look at the last 6 teams and compare the $$$$$ to the rest of the teams.



    I don't think Detroit has had to do much development in the past 10 years. All they had to do is wait until the prospects reach 31 (by which time they are stars in the league), then use Edmonton (for example) as a farm team.

    But Kronwall is going to be excellent.
     
  3. GoneAway

    GoneAway Guest

    Have you forgotten 2 guys like Datsyuk and Zetterburg? They were HUGE UFA signings considering they're both 31 and...hey wait a minute :sarcasm:
     
  4. x-bob

    x-bob Registered User

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    Teams like LA, Mon and FLO have done some really good picks for those draft positions.
     
  5. Tap on the Ankle

    Tap on the Ankle expert analysis

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    Yup, as have Ottawa, Detroit, and Philly. Especially Philly, though. Bottom 5 on this list, excellent prospect depth, and widely considered to be one of the Cup favourites. Definitely a good time to be a Flyers fan.
     
  6. Dallas

    Dallas Registered User

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    The Florida Panthers at 17.7 caught my eye right away, so I looked up their drafting history and in statistical terms, there are some significant outlier effects going on.

    Here are their picks over the last 10 years:

    20, 7, 3, 3, 4, 58, 12, 30, 20, 20

    One of these things is not like the others. If you remove that one draft year, and add the Panthers draft position from 1995 (10th), their new average is 12.9. That is where I would expect the Panthers to be, right there with the rest of the expansion teams, and the Flames. ;)
     
  7. Claypool_*

    Claypool_* Guest


    How many significant players have the Wings signed away from poor teams in the last decade?


    0
     
  8. Beef03

    Beef03 Registered User

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    Of the big spending teams out there - or formerly I should say - I always respected the way Detroit put their team together, they did it the right way, developing around their picks or young players acquired early on in their careers. When their payroll became inflated it was because they had to pay the big bucks to keep their stars. Now outside of one year - the year they signed Robitaille, Cujo, etc. - they did things the right way. Plus they always draft real well, considering their lack of a decent draft position their scouting staff has done a phenominal job of picking up gems late in the proceedings.
     
  9. steafo

    steafo Registered User

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    ...Hasek?
     
  10. Douggy

    Douggy Registered User

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    Good work Fisher. :handclap:

    Given the Leafs average position being a second round pick, the amount of talent we've developed in those years is moderately impressive.
     
  11. oil slick

    oil slick Registered User

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    Basically meaningless statistic if you ask me. Consider a hypothetical team that trades away their 1st and 2nd rounders in a single year, they could easily end up with the following numbers over 6 years:

    Team A
    1st overall, 1st overall, 1st overall, 1st overall, 1st overall, 90th overall = average of over 15.8

    compares to

    Team B
    1st overall, 1st overall, 1st overall, 30th overall, 30th overall, 30th overall = average of 15.5

    compares to

    Team C
    15th overall, 15th overall, 15th overall, 15th overall,15th overall = average of 15.0

    If I were picking which picks I would want, I would say

    Team A >>>>>>> Team B >>>>>>>> Team C by a huge margin. I think you see this with a lot of the numbers.


    Edmon:6 14 13 12 17 13 22 14 25
    Florida:20 20 30 13 58 4 3 7 20

    I don't know about you, but give me the 3rd, 4th, and 7th pick plus a few 2nd rounders in exchange for the 6th + mid round picks every time
     
  12. Dallas

    Dallas Registered User

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    This is true, but if you go through the list, the only team that has an average draft position that isn't indicative of where they have typically drafted, is the Florida Panthers. For the most part the other rankings give a good idea of where teams have drafted. But I agree, the average draft positions listed are by no means a great statistic.
     
  13. oil slick

    oil slick Registered User

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    Tampa: 1st, 3rd, 7th - 23.6 overall
    San Jose: 2nd, 2nd, 3rd - 14.5 overall
    Washington:1st, 4th, 7th, 9th - 19.8 overall

    IMO - a much more meaningful statistic would be this: take a long period(>10 years) from the 70's-80's-early 90's. Take the average number of games that each draft position played (so 1st overall would be #games played by Lemieux + Clarke + Murphy +... and take the average.

    This should give a good indication of the relative power of a draft position. I would guess the number of games played by an average 1st overall pick + the average of 30th overall pick >>> 2*average of a 15th overall pick, which is as it should be.

    Now I would just sum everyones numbers (so Edmonton would be average of 6th overall + 12th oveall + 13th + 13th + ...). I would think this would be more meaningful.
     
  14. Claypool_*

    Claypool_* Guest


    Detroit traded for him.
     
  15. KingPurpleDinosaur

    KingPurpleDinosaur Bandwagon Kings Fan

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    if someone were bored enough, u could calculate the standard deviation in order to atone to oil slick's complaints. it'd hlep give mroe weight to the statistic.

    playing off of oil slick's suggestion, it'd be interesting to see how much value each team gets out of their draft picks. like he said, if u get the last 10+ years and average out the number of games played per position picked then use that information to compare it to that of the number of games the picks actually played, it'd show whether or not that team is making use of their draft picks. very interesting proposition
     
  16. Birko19

    Birko19 Registered User

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    Slava Kozlov and a 1st rounder for that one, we did't sign him via free agencey.
     
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