Auston Matthews Discussion Thread

[zeke]

“fake” .... except that they actually happened

Ice time also happened.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

When you say “player x predicts to score y points in a/b ice time” it’s a prediction. When you say “Matthew’s has scored 18 goals in 18 games”, it’s a true stat. No manipulation or prediction necessary. The player still needs to score the points, which no prediction can ever account for.

.....and when the results fall in line with the predictions, perhaps it's time to step back and realize some things?

 

[Strangle]

.....and when the results fall in line with the predictions, perhaps it's time to step back and realize some things?

What happens when they don’t, though? Do you say the player underperformed? Or do you think “maybe these projections aren’t real numbers and are just made up?”

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Points / 60 isn't a projection though. It's no different than points / game, you're just dividing by every 60 minutes played instead of every game played (duh). Not sure why people have any issue with this stat LOL

 

[Strangle]

Ice time also happened.

A player either scores the goals or they don’t. The most egregious examples of this is trying to normalize Gretzky’s ridiculous numbers.

I’ve read literally thousands of posts using math to bring Gretzky down to earth. It’s just ridiculous. The numbers speak for themselves, or they don’t. No matter how much era adjustment, games played (which is ice time, too) matters. All that matters is what actually happens on the ice.

 

[Strangle]

Points / 60 isn't a projection though. It's no different than points / game, you're just dividing by every 60 minutes played instead of every game played (duh). Not sure why people have any issue with this stat LOL

Because we don’t track points per minute. It’s not how the record book is written.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Because we don’t track points per minute. It’s not how the record book is written.

You are trying very hard to find an issue here that doesn't exist.

 

[Mess]

I think Matthews would score 50 goals this year if this were a normal regular season and full 82 games based on how he is playing and win the Rocket Richard.

However I think he has a real chance to score 50 goals in 55 games in the all CDN div.

Because of this unique situation I think Matthews could score 50 goals but in 30 less games due to QofC.

 

[MattySnipes]

NHL 1st star of the week baby. Nuff said.

12 points (7 goals) in FOUR games.

3 PPG.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When you say “player x predicts to score y points in a/b ice time” it’s a prediction.

I didn't say "player X predicts to score Y points in a/b ice time". I'm discussing what player X DID score. It factually happened. It is reality. The only difference is that I am including critical time opportunity information, to be more complete, accurate, and get a better understanding of the abilities of those players. It is all based on the exact same points that were actually scored in the actual games. There is no manipulation, or prediction, or anything like that. Just pure, solid facts.

When you say “Matthew’s has scored 18 goals in 18 games”, it’s a true stat.

When you say "Matthews has scored 18 goals in 18 games", you are also using a rate statistic. You are providing opportunity information in the form of games played. Providing opportunity information in the form of minutes played is no different.

Because we don’t track points per minute.

Per-60 information is literally on NHL.com.

 

[zeke]

A player either scores the goals or they don’t. The most egregious examples of this is trying to normalize Gretzky’s ridiculous numbers.

I’ve read literally thousands of posts using math to bring Gretzky down to earth. It’s just ridiculous. The numbers speak for themselves, or they don’t. No matter how much era adjustment, games played (which is ice time, too) matters. All that matters is what actually happens on the ice.

p60 actually happens on the ice.

we don't have to argue about it, really.

some of us predicted that exactly this would happen if Matthews and Marner were given superstar ice time.

while others predicted that ice time was irrelevant, and that it wouldn't make a difference.

and now we see the real life results of that argument happening on the ice in real time.

 

[Sypher04]

Because we don’t track points per minute. It’s not how the record book is written.

And yet it's still a perfectly legitimate form of showing actual production.

 

[zeke]

Because we don’t track points per minute. It’s not how the record book is written.

funny that the nhl is one of the only leagues that works this way.

baseball uses batting average and on base percentage rather than just total hits.

basketball uses per game stats always, never total stats.

because it obviously, unarguably, matters.

 

[Sypher04]

I think Matthews would score 50 goals this year if this were a normal regular season and full 82 games based on how he is playing and win the Rocket Richard.

However I think he has a real chance to score 50 goals in 55 games in the all CDN div.

Because of this unique situation I think Matthews could score 50 goals but in 30 less games due to QofC.

The North Division is not even remotely as bad as you are implying.
Matthews' goalscoring has taken a clear step this year, which is scary considering how elite it already was.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

The North Division is not even remotely as bad as you are implying.
Matthews' goalscoring has taken a clear step this year, which is scary considering how elite it already was.

Funny how people were saying Montreal is the best team in the division and then Matthews goes and drops 4 points against them.

Honestly the whole division argument is stupid anyways because the majority of the world agrees that McDavid is the best player on the planet, and he is playing in the same division... And Matthews is scoring more and overall putting up points at a very similar pace. Not to mention you don't hear anyone saying MacKinnon's 18 points in 13 don't count because he gets to beat up on the Cali teams.

 

[Mess]

The North Division is not even remotely as bad as you are implying.
Matthews' goalscoring has taken a clear step this year, which is scary considering how elite it already was.

Do you think Matthews has a chance at 50 goals this season, if so he will only have 55 games to do it?

 

[Sypher04]

Do you think Matthews has a chance at 50 goals this season, if so he will only have 55 games to do it?

As cool as it'd be, I don't expect Matthews to continue scoring at or above a goal per game 50 games in. It's a super fun story line, but it's not likely to happen.
And if it did that speaks more to the insane season he has than divisional competitiveness.

 

[RogerR]

Do you think Matthews has a chance at 50 goals this season, if so he will only have 55 games to do it?

I take it you're very imptressed with Leafs D playing against all this firepower in the North?

 

[CanadasTeam]

 

[Confucius]

Mathews is 23, Gretzky, Stamkos, Ovi, Crosby all had their peak goal scoring years at or by 23. Too bad last year and this year were not full seasons. At least Mathews is at the optimal age to do it.

 

[1specter]

Mathews is 23, Gretzky, Stamkos, Ovi, Crosby all had their peak goal scoring years at or by 23. Too bad last year and this year were not full seasons. At least Mathews is at the optimal age to do it.

Maybe all the minute management from Babcock earlier in his career will pay off later with less wear and tear on Matthews

 

[Mess]

I take it you're very impressed with Leafs D playing against all this firepower in the North?

Auston Matthews has scored 18 goals against only 7 goalies.

For a sniper like him to break down tape and only need to focus on such a small and select group is a huge advantage.

I think Freddy A is pretty happy he is not one of those 7 goalies that needs to face AM in a game and only in practice..

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

What happens when they don’t, though? Do you say the player underperformed? Or do you think “maybe these projections aren’t real numbers and are just made up?”

I think if you see people using reasonable logic and data, you won't be surprised by the outcomes. For example, all data suggests OV and Matthews are comparable. Most would also agree that both are elite talents . Now most who argue against things like P60 do so using examples of X 3rd or 4th liner compared to say Matthews. It's a patently stupid argument. Obviously the results won't pan out across the board (take Boyd as an example). That said, when you have reams of evidence and relatively equal parameters, it shouldn't surprise anyone.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

A player either scores the goals or they don’t.

.

.....and when given the ice time and opportunity to do so, they have done exactly that, as was predicted.

Not even sure what point you are trying to make?

 

[Mickey Marner]

Too bad his streak is over, but we were due for a game where nothing went in.