ATD2021 René Lecavalier Divisional Semi-Final: Guelph Platers vs. Vegas Knights

[BenchBrawl]

Guelph Platers
1986 Memorial Cup Champions

Home Rink: Guelph Memorial Gardens (1948)
GM: BraveCanadian
Coach: Al Arbour
Captain: Syl Apps Sr.
Alternates: Hap Day / Sylvio Mantha


Alexander Ovechkin - Adam Oates - Bryan Hextall Sr.
Paul Thompson - Syl Apps Sr. - Alf Smith
Kevin Stevens - John Tavares - Bobby Rousseau
Gilles Tremblay - Don Luce - Jean Pronovost

"Moose" Johnson - Brad Park
Hap Day - Sylvio Mantha
Andrei Markov - Jiri Bubla

Ken Dryden
Pekka Rinne

Reserves
Nathan MacKinnon - Bill Hajt - Jason Pominville

Powerplay:
PP1: Alexander Ovechkin - Syl Apps Sr. - Bryan Hextall Sr. - Andrei Markov - Brad Park
PP2: Paul Thompson - Adam Oates - Kevin Stevens - Bobby Rousseau - Jiri Bubla

Penalty Kill:
PK1: Don Luce - Gilles Tremblay - Moose Johnson - Sylvio Mantha
PK2: Adam Oates - Jean Pronovost - Hap Day - Brad Park​

vs.​

COACH -Vladimir Kostka
CAPTAIN - Nicklas Lidstrom
ASSISTANT CAPTAINS - Leo Boivin, Guy Carbonneau

Mahovlich-Thornton-Makarov
Naslund- Forsberg-Hodge
Watson-Ratelle-Gartner
Sid Smith/Draper-Carbo-Finnigan
McGee

Lidstrom - Tom Johnson
Vasko - Karlsson
Boivin - Konstantinov
Carlyle

Grant Fuhr
Chuck Rayner

PP1:
Hodge (46%/1.42)
Gartner (52%/1.00) - Makarov (47%/1.11-NHL) - Forsberg (72%/1.14)
Lidstrom (73%/1.23)

PP2:​

Thornton (67%/1.08)
Naslund - Mahovlich (67%/1.04)- Ratelle (53%/1.18)
Karlsson (75%/.94)​

PK1: Carbonneau (53%/.91)-Finnigan (Best penalty killer 1930's - Ultimate Hockey) -Lidstrom (52%/.81)-Johnson (77%/.91)

PK2: Draper (33%/.82)-Mahovlich (13%/.83)/Forsberg (21%/.88)-Vasko (53%/1.00)-​

Konstantinov (42%/.76)

Click to read more...

 

[tinyzombies]

Cursory glance:

Edge for me:

1. Blueline scoring (Lidstrom/Karlsson vs Park/Markov)
   
2. Centers: Oates-Thornton about the same, Forsberg-Apps about teh same, Ratelle edge over Tavares. (Oates avg defensively, Tavares below avg, Apps and Luce excellent; Ratelle, Forsberg and Carbo ex defensively, Thornton average)
   
3. 2nd line
4. PK1
5. PP2
6. Strong defensively: Lidstrom, Tom Johnson, Vasko, Konstantinov and Boivin (in a third pairing role), Makarov, Forsberg, Ratelle, Watson, Carbo, Finnigan, Draper.
7. Speed: Makarov, Mahovlich, Forsberg, Gartner, Finnigan. Not bad: Johnson, Ratelle, Konstantinov, Naslund, Karlsson, Smith.
   

Edge for you:

1. Coach
2. 4th line
   
3. PP1
4. Goalie (since this is a playoff series - slight edge to you? Fuhr faced more heat than Dryden, other than 71, and came through and has the second best or best all-time playoff record)
5. Strong defensively: Apps, Thompson, Luce, Tremblay, Park, Day, Moose
6. Speed: Ovechkin, Apps, Moose, Thompson, Rousseau, Luce.

I think what's decisive is my 2nd line (Forsberg) and a more offense from the blueline (Lidstrom/Karlsson), and an overall better team defense and more speed through my lineup. Over to you.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Which Naslund is this?

 

[tinyzombies]

Markus Naslund

 

[Dreakmur]

Edge for me:

1. Top 3 centers are stronger all around (Oates and Tavares suspect defensively, Apps and Luce excellent; Ratelle, Forsberg and Carbo ex defensively, Thornton average)

Adam Oates was pretty good defensively if I remember right. He was an excellent PKer.

Tavares and Thornton are pretty similar defensively - both pretty mediocre at the ATD level.

 

[tinyzombies]

Adam Oates was pretty good defensively if I remember right. He was an excellent PKer.

Tavares and Thornton are pretty similar defensively - both pretty mediocre at the ATD level.

Being a good penalty killer doesn't mean he was good defensively. I took the rating from a reputed member on here, I think seventies? I'll have to find it. He rated a bunch of old Bruins defensively and Oates got an 82/100.

Oates: AEV+/- /82 of 6.
R+/- of 8.67

-12 in the playoffs

Excellent faceoff man.

I defer to those wiser than me.

 

[tinyzombies]

Seventieslord: "Defense: Adam Oates was glorified by the media defensively, in a Joe Nieuwendyk kind of way. I think that he was good at best, not great. The defensive reputation that he somehow got, appears to have a lot to do with his faceoff abilities and not a lot to do with actual goal production, as his ESGA/GP stats are very high for a player of his stature. For example, he averaged 0.95 adjusted ESGA/GP. Turgeon averaged 0.74. Oates was the beneficiary of better goaltending (Cujo/Kolzig vs. Puppa and late career Fuhr) and better defensemen (Bourque, an extremely solid and balanced WSH corps vs. Housley - who would have made things worse - Malakhov/Norton/Krupp/Kurvers - seriously! - and finally greener pastures with the MacInnis/Pronger situation in STL)

The numbers don't indicate Oates was a better defensive player and though their reputations say that he was, the extreme gap that we're seeing in the numbers is a good indication that even if they're lying to us a bit, these two players are even."

Pierre Turgeon and Adam Oates

Ok, so he wasn't "suspect defensively" as I said.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I think Oates is most likely another case of a high-scoring forward who started off poorly defensively, improved, and continued to look bad by the numbers because of situational use. Being a faceoff whiz, he'd be taking a lot of important defensive zone draws and late game shifts where being scored on or having an EN goal could happen.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...r-his-d/df7bff8c-50cb-4c7a-a669-df4cbf9a2533/

Going from bad to good throughout his career, I think for ATD purposes I'd say Oates averages out to "solid" but unspectacular. Although his faceoff ability is really high which is great.

Luckily, I also unearthed a tidbit that points in the direction of Hextall being a plus defensive player as well, so my front line should have enough defensive capability to be adequate covering for 2nd-half-career Ovechkin, while grinding up people with physical play and contributing a high level of offense.

I'm really pleased with the fit I got there. I'll have more to contribute later this week hopefully.

The short version because this is a very busy time at work right now:

I built the team to have a lot of scoring depth. We've got a lot of scoring depth! Shifting towards favouring more ES scoring in the bottom half where they won't have much PP time, even our 4th liners are legitimate threats at even strength while being a very solid line defensively when we need one.

The sandpaper on the wings (outside Rousseau obviously), was a conscious choice to allow our centers to cheat back defensively somewhat in the offensive zone, and play a triangle with our tough cornermen to take full advantage of their playmaking (in Tavares case more his shooting from center) coming out of the corners where we will win most of the battles.

This is all backed by a steady (for the most part conservative) defensive core, a strong goaltender, and a dynamite first PP unit.

In this round we have huge advantages in the coaching and goaltending departments which may be the key to the series because Vegas also has good scoring depth.

 

[tinyzombies]

Assuming you are going to want to get your top line out there against Karlsson: I have Vasko as his partner. I have posted this elsewhere, but Karlsson's zone entry denials are elite (which is important vs Ovie... and remember 2010 when Spacek shut Ovie's transition game down, which is when he started changing his game, even moving to RW at one point). It's offensive zone positioning where EK is criticized. However, Ovie isn't exactly a set-up type player [EDIT: WRONG] , he's a transition guy at his peak (and a PP scorer). Karlsson was 2nd in the league one year in blocked shots, is an excellent stick-checker and his turnover rate is very low compared to how much he has the puck (he was ranked in the 40's the last 3 years).

I'll be playing modern systems with a 1-2-2 forecheck wary of your rush. So I'll have numbers back and have an overload waiting for you. Ovie and Oates aren't exactly board guys (Ovie likes to dish late hits on the forecheck once the puck has left, but he's not exactly a battler on the boards), so it's Hextall vs Vasko in an overload and you have to get it off the wall to Oates before you can even make a play. You have Moose Johnson and Park. Moose is mainly a rusher I think? Park is a clever player and can get a shot through. It will be a tough line to play against, I'm not saying that, but I think I can limit the damage and come back the other way just as hard in my other line matchups.

 

[tinyzombies]

Ok, so Ovie not just a rusher, I'm happy to admit when I'm wrong. And he's much more than a powerplay scorer too:

 

[Dreakmur]

Assuming you are going to want to get your top line out there against Karlsson: I have Vasko as his partner. I have posted this elsewhere, but Karlsson's zone entry denials are elite (which is important vs Ovie... and remember 2010 when Spacek shut Ovie's transition game down, which is when he started changing his game, even moving to RW at one point). It's offensive zone positioning where EK is criticized. However, Ovie isn't exactly a set-up type player, he's a transition guy at his peak (and a PP scorer). Karlsson was 2nd in the league one year in blocked shots, is an excellent stick-checker and his turnover rate is very low compared to how much he has the puck (he was ranked in the 40's the last 3 years).

I'll be playing modern systems with a 1-2-2 forecheck wary of your rush. So I'll have numbers back and have an overload waiting for you. Ovie and Oates aren't exactly board guys (Ovie likes to dish late hits on the forecheck once the puck has left, but he's not exactly a battler on the boards), so it's Hextall vs Vasko in an overload and you have to get it off the wall to Oates before you can even make a play. You have Moose Johnson and Park. Moose is mainly a rusher I think? Park is a clever player and can get a shot through. It will be a tough line to play against, I'm not saying that, but I think I can limit the damage and come back the other way just as hard in my other line matchups.

Moose Johnson is a defensive defenseman. He skates really well, but doesn’t provide much offensively.

 

[tinyzombies]

VsX7 points:

First line: 280.8 vs 278 (if you give Makarov 95) -- about the same
Second line: 256 to 235 for me (if you give Alf Smith 60).
3rd line: If I have Sid Smith there instead of Watson it's basically a tie 227 to 225. So I assume Watson is similar?
Fourth line: You have the edge in goals here but Sid Smith is a 39 VsX7 goals, and Finnigan also provides offense.

Scoring from my blueline: Lidstrom, Karlsson big edge vs. Park, Markov.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Good series!

 

[tinyzombies]

Good series!

I edited my first post to reflect where I was wrong and with the new facts.

 

[tinyzombies]

Congrats dude!