ATD2021 Jim Robson Divisional Semi-Final: Pittsburgh AC vs. Ottawa Senators

BenchBrawl

Registered User
Jul 26, 2010
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Pittsburgh AC:

Original Red and White colours of the AC

"Speed is the essence of war"
Sun Tzu


pittsburgh-ac-red-and-white-front-jpg.340201


pittsburgh-ac-red-and-white-back-jpg.340202



Coach: Pete Green

Captain: Scott Stevens
Alternate: Bobby Orr
Alternate: Yvan Cournoyer
Alternate: Joe Malone


ROSTER:

Johnny Bucyk - Joe Malone (A) - Vladimir Martinec

Bun Cook - Jacques Lemaire - Yvan Cournoyer (A)
Rusty Crawford - Dale Hawerchuk - Glenn Anderson

Nick Metz - Phil Goyette - Bill Guerin

Spares: Dave Poulin, Alex Tanguay

Scott Stevens (C) - Bobby Orr (A)
Jacques Laperriere - Earl Seibert
Flash Hollett - Ken Morrow

Spares: Gennadiy Tsygankov

Johnny Bower
Hap Holmes


Special Teams:

PP1

Malone
Seibert - Cournoyer - Bucyk
Orr


PP2

Martinec - Lemaire - Anderson/Hawerchuk
Hawerchuk/Orr - Hollett


PK1

Cook - Metz
Stevens - Orr


PK2

Goyette/Poulin - Crawford/Martinec
Laperriere - Morrow/Tsygankov


vs.



Power Play 1: Moore - Savard - Bossy - Kelly - Gonchar
Power Play 2: Kapustin - Fedorov - Larionov - Kasatonov - Gonchar/Carlson

Penalty Kill 1: Sanderson-Fedorov-Reise-Kasatonov
Penalty Kill 2: Toews-Hossa-Kelly-Goldham
Other PKers: Larionov, Ellis, Carlson





 

ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
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Pittsburgh AC:


Original Red and White colours of the AC

"Speed is the essence of war"
-Sun Tzu



pittsburgh-ac-red-and-white-front-jpg.340201


pittsburgh-ac-red-and-white-back-jpg.340202



Coach: Pete Green

Captain: Scott Stevens
Alternate: Bobby Orr
Alternate: Yvan Cournoyer
Alternate: Joe Malone


ROSTER:




FORWARDS:

Johnny Bucyk - Joe Malone (A) - Vladimir Martinec

(21 minutes)

Bun Cook - Jacques Lemaire - Yvan Cournoyer (A)
(16 minutes)


Rusty Crawford - Dale Hawerchuk - Glenn Anderson
(14 minutes)


Nick Metz - Phil Goyette - Bill Guerin

(9 minutes)


Spares:


Dave Poulin


Sub for Goyette against teams with high end offensive C


Alex Tanguay


Sub for Crawford at 3LW when we need a big upgrade offensively



DEFENSEMEN:

Scott Stevens (C) - Bobby Orr (A)
Orr - 30 minutes

Stevens - 26 minutes

Jacques Laperriere - Earl Seibert
Seibert - 26 minutes
Laperriere - 24 minutes

Flash Hollett - Ken Morrow
Hollett - 10 minutes
Morrow - 4 minutes

Spares:

Gennadiy Tsygankov

Sub for Hollett if Pittsburgh decides to go defensive tilt.




GOALIES:

Johnny Bower

Hap Holmes



SPECIAL TEAMS:

PP1

Malone

Seibert - Cournoyer - Bucyk

Orr


PP2

Martinec - Lemaire - Anderson/Hawerchuk
Hawerchuk/Orr - Hollett


*Orr will rotate with Hawerchuk on the 2nd unit to keep him as fresh as possible for ES. If Orr comes on Hawerchuk will move up to replace Anderson.


PK1

Cook - Metz
Stevens - Orr


*When leading by 1 or more, Laperriere will move up to 1st unit and Orr down to 2nd.
Another way to manufacture Orr an extra shift at ES


PK2

Goyette/Poulin - Crawford/Martinec
Laperriere - Morrow/Tsygankov


*Martinec will play on this unit if trailing​
 
Last edited:

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Pittsburgh AC 7 year VsX and ES VsX scores (Forwards)

NameVsX7ESVsX
Malone 95*62*
Martinec80-85*55*
Bucyk88.760
Hawerchuk86.058
Lemaire 77.955
Cournoyer77.148
Cook76.350*
Goyette75.251
Tanguay 73.458
Anderson 72.955
Guerin 64.148
Crawford51.641*
Metz51.641*
Poulin 46.942
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*estimated relative value

Name7VsXESVsX
Orr114.864
Hollett**58.4
Stevens52.4
Seibert45.8
Laperriere34.6
Morrow
[TBODY] [/TBODY]


7VsX Grand Total = 1,019.2
ESVsX Grand Total = 683
W/Orr 7VsX = 1134
W/Orr ESVsX = 747


*This VsX score is including ALL players. Not just D
**Hollett played games at F throughout his career though was D the majority of time so 58.4 is inflated a bit from a D perspective.


Vs Ottawa:

Pittsburgh Forwards Only - 1019.2
Pittsburgh w/Orr - 1134
vs
Ottawa Senators Forwards Only = 992.3
Ottawa w/ Kelly = 1067.7

*2nd score w/Kelly not true # as Kelly played multiple seasons at F and even still they come in well behind Pittsburgh.


Bossy = 94.8
Savard = 85.5
Moore = 85.4
Hossa = 82.4
Fedorov = 80.8
Kelly = 75.4 (not true D # as he spent multiple years at F)
**Hlinka = 75
Demitra = 74.5
Toews = 73.7
**Larionov = 70
Thomas = 62.3
Ellis = 57.1
**Kapustin = 50
Sanderson = 53.1
Clark = 47.7

**estimated 7 year VsX score for pre consolidation/non NHL Euro players​
 

overpass

Registered User
Jun 7, 2007
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I'll start by discussing Bobby Orr. He's the best player in the series and maybe the best ever at his peak. Pittsburgh has him paired with a better defence partner than he ever had, although he's also lacking a top-end forward to play with.

Here's why the Ottawa Senators are built to slow down Bobby Orr.


1. Coaching. Scotty Bowman is widely considered the greatest hockey coach of all time and gave his team an edge in every playoff series he coached. Bobby Orr did play against a Bowman team in one series and beat them, the 1970 St Louis Blues, but those Blues were completely outclassed on talent. Orr was slowed down by superior coaching in several playoff losses, including 1973 vs Emile Francis and the Rangers, 1974 vs Fred Shero and the Flyers, and whatever happened against Montreal in 1971.

2. Ottawa's centres are going to limit Bobby Orr's ability to skate the puck up the middle of the ice. Sergei Fedorov is almost the perfect centre for this matchup, with all-time skating, hockey IQ, and defensive play, and should be able to do what Henri Richard did to Orr in the 1971 playoffs. Jonathan Toews and Derek Sanderson were great forecheckers and backcheckers. Denis Savard was not a noted checker but at least has top-end skating ability.

3. Which Bobby Orr are you going to get? Orr had absolutely dominant stats in all situations, but those stats didn't always hold up against top teams. As you can see from the chart below, as his knee injuries piled up and limited his skating, he started to have problems against the best teams. From 69-70 through 71-72, Bobby Orr was +42 in 67 games against 0.600+ teams. Which is really impressive! But from 1972-73 through 1974-75, Orr was only +2 in 53 such games, with much higher goals against totals. Bobby Orr could be vulnerable defensively against top teams, especially when his knee injuries had started to limit him.

Bobby Orr vs 0.600+ teams (regular season)
SeasonsGPGAP+/-
1969-70 through 1971-726726588442
1972-73 through 1974-75531956752
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Bobby and the Bruins posted all-time dominant power play and penalty kill numbers, but those were built on running up the score against weaker teams. Against 0.600+ teams, Boston was barely positive at special teams. They were actually outscored in terms of power play goals, but their shorthanded scoring gave them a edge. This is not what all-time great special teams units look like.

Boston Bruins vs 0.600 teams (regular season)
SeasonGPPPGFPPGASHGASHGFNet Special teams goals
69-7032313525-1
70-7118111727-1
71-72181312155
72-7316121434-1
73-74211914016
74-75202219410
Total12510811112238
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Against everyone else
SeasonGPPPGFPPGASHGFSHGANet Special teams goals
69-704450458211
70-7160693618249
71-7260613913134
72-7362552911235
73-7457463411221
74-7560644013631
Total3433452237415181
[TBODY] [/TBODY]


I'm not saying the Ottawa Senators are a 0.600+ team in the ATD and I'm not saying they aren't. I'm saying that 0.600+ teams are the closest thing to ATD teams that Bobby Orr faced in his career, and the results weren't always great.
 
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overpass

Registered User
Jun 7, 2007
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Pittsburgh has the clear edge on the blueline. There's no arguing that. But Ottawa has a big edge at forward despite the VsX numbers, for several reasons.

1. Pittsburgh doesn't have a line that is suited to playing a matchup role against Ottawa's top lines. Not even close. Johnny Bucyk and Joe Malone on the first line, Yvan Cournoyer on the second line, Dale Hawerchuk on the third line, and Phil Goyette and Bill Guerin on the fourth line are all players who basically never played on a tough matchups line in their NHL career.

On the other hand, Demitra-Toews-Hossa is one of the very best matchup lines in this draft, led by the Toews-Hossa combo which was part of the core of a dynasty. The Russian Five is a formidable unit that will give all but the very best lines serious problems. I don't see a line on Pittsburgh that has the talent and style to blow up their puck possession game. And Moore-Savard-Bossy is simply the best line in this series and can play against anyone.

2. Dale Hawerchuk is really out of place on a third line, unless it's an out and out scoring line. During his NHL career, he was on the ice for really high goals against totals for all of his high scoring seasons. See the charts below -- that's a 6 year span where he was second only to Gretzky in ESGA among forwards, followed by a separate 5 year span where he was third to Gretzky and Yzerman in ESGA among forwards. He was even in terms of plus-minus in the first 6 years, and a negative in the next 5 years. From 1987-88 on, his even strength scoring was way down and his high-scoring totals were driven by big numbers on the PP, often playing the point.

1981-82 through 1986-87, highest on-ice ESGA among forwards.
PlayerGPESGFESGAR-ONESGESP
Wayne Gretzky4739805681.73304831
Dale Hawerchuk4795265251.00182414
Peter Stastny4505754941.16166445
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
1987-88 through 1991-92, highest on-ice ESGA among forwards.
PlayerGPESGFESGAR-ONESGESP
Wayne Gretzky3675614631.21140453
Steve Yzerman3824614091.13179375
Dale Hawerchuk3913423850.8992255
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For whatever reason -- maybe he was more of a rush scorer than a zone possession scorer and allowed lots of chances the other way, or maybe he was double-shifted a lot to get his points, or maybe he didn't really play defence -- Hawerchuk bled goals-against for his whole scoring prime. And now you're asking him to take on a completely different role as a third line centre playing on the second PP. I would not expect success. Rusty Crawford was a good defensive player but does not have the offensive skill to help Hawerchuk drive possession on this line. Glenn Anderson could play on a checking line with Mark Messier -- but can he do it with Dale Hawerchuk? I don't think he'll make this line run either.

I realize Hawerchuk played good two-way hockey on LW in Canada Cup 87 for a few games. I don't think that translates to driving a line as a third line C at the ATD level. Hawerchuk has zero track record of playing on an outscoring line in his whole NHL career.

3. There's a lot of empty calories in Pittsburgh's VsX numbers. My esteemed opponent has drafted several players who played as the second banana or third wheel to superstars, and he's posting their VsX numbers and comparing them to players who were the lead dog on their lines or at least equal partners.

Johnny Bucyk -- lots of early 70s Boston inflation, especially against weaker teams.
Bun Cook -- third wheel on a line with 2 superstars, Bill Cook and Frank Boucher
Jacques Lemaire -- his ES numbers are inflated by 2.5 seasons with Guy Lafleur
Glenn Anderson -- longtime linemate and clear second banana to superstar C Messier, as well as some time with Gretzky earlier in his career.
Alex Tanguay -- I hope you're not including his numbers because he's not dressed, but he had the good fortune to play LW for the peak seasons of Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, and Jarome Iginla. I'm willing to give him some credit for their success but he was definitely a complementary player, not someone who drove his own line.
Phil Goyette -- he was a fourth liner on Montreal and a scorer with the Rangers, Blues, and Sabres. You're deploying him as a fourth liner but using his first line stats.
Dale Hawerchuk -- already mentioned, but he's going from huge PP minutes and double shifting at ES in his prime to playing a limited 3rd line and 2nd PP role here. You can't just take his VsX at face value.


In contrast, Ottawa's forwards were more likely to be the best players on their line and are playing in roles that more closely match their actual careers.

Dickie Moore -- you could argue Henri Richard was his co-#1 on his line, but it's hard to argue against two Art Ross trophies.
Denis Savard - clear #1
Mike Bossy - clear #1 offensive player on his line
Sergei Kapustin - Never really played with a better player regularly and was arguably the best player on his line for his scoring prime
Sergei Fedorov -- always the best player on his line during his prime
Igor Larionov -- now here we have a player who was a second banana or even third wheel in his scoring prime. But he played at an MVP candidate level in San Jose, showing he could lead a line. And he was the #1 centre on the #1 or #2 hockey country for almost a decade. My opponent only credited him with 70 VsX anyway, less than Phil Goyette(!) or Alex Tanguay(!!), so there's no air to let out of the tires here.
Pavol Demitra -- usually the leader or co-leader of a line
Jonathan Toews -- Always the best player on his line
Marian Hossa -- Always the best player on his line in his scoring prime except for the partial season with Crosby. Had a terrific extended prime playing with Jonathan Toews as the matchup line on a dynasty...which is exactly where he is playing for Ottawa!
Wendel Clark -- played with notably poor centres for his first 8 seasons, then erupted as a scoring threat when he got to play with Doug Gilmour and Joe Sakic. He's not playing with Gilmour or Sakic but Sanderson and Ellis are better linemates than he had for most of his career.
Sanderson -- he was a third line checker on Boston and he's a fourth line checker here. Not much of a difference in role, just a smaller role.
Ellis -- was often the second banana on his line to Norm Ullman or Dave Keon, so you could bump his numbers down a bit when he plays with Sanderson on the fourth line.

But isn't it a problem to have too many players who were used to being #1 players on their line? Can they work together and complement each other? Is there enough puck to go around? I think there is. Dickie Moore, Mike Bossy, Fedorov, Larionov, Toews, and Demitra all played very intelligent games, weren't puck hogs, and worked together well with other top scorers. Marian Hossa could dominate the puck when he was the best player on his line but he also showed he could fit really well with players like Crosby, Datsyuk, and Toews when given the chance. I think Moore and Bossy in particular would make Denis Savard look really good.

Overall, Ottawa has a very strong forward corps, especially the top 3 lines. The talent is there and the lines all fit together perfectly in terms of style. And Ottawa has a strong offensive defenceman on each pairing as well to create width and depth in the attack, sustain puck possession, and pressure the opponent's net.
 

tabness

be a playa
Apr 4, 2014
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I think Ottawa is the best matchup against powerhouse Pittsburgh.

Ottawa is a bit small in general though, but despite common stereotypes, I don’t think the first line is in too much trouble against Stevens. Mike Bossy wouldn’t be intimidated and would play through punishment, and Denis Savard is probably the next finesse player after Gretzky who paradoxically may improve his game by avoiding the rough stuff, and he has the skating and vision to do so.

I feel giving Pittsburgh’s third line a bit more ice time and let them run and gun would do wonders for the team and go some way to nullifying Ottawa’s two way depth.
 

overpass

Registered User
Jun 7, 2007
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I'd like to point out that Mike Bossy was a superstar whose game held up very well against top competition. His play should translate 100% to the All Time Draft level.

85 goals in 129 playoff games. 13 goals in 15 Canada Cup games.

Bossy also maintained his scoring level very well against 0.600+ teams in the regular season. Over his career he played 167 games against 0.600+ regular season teams, and scored 117 goals and 113 assists. Here's how that compares to his results against all other teams.

Mike Bossy
OppositionGPGAP+/-ESGESPPPGPPPSHGSHP
Total752573553112638038573918037889
0.600+ opponents1671171132304681145348322
Less than 0.60058545644089633430459414629567
Total per 80 games806159120404179194011
0.600+ per 80 games805654110223969164011
Less than 0.600 per 80 gams806260123464281204011
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Bossy scored about 10 fewer points per season against 0.600/teams. His power play scoring held up, and his even strength goal scoring held up, but his even strength assists dropped. So Bossy was almost 100% resilient as a goal scorer, scoring at a similar rate against all opposition. His plus-minus dropped from 46 per 80 games against lower opposition to 22 per 80 games against top teams, still a strong total.

How do Johnny Bucyk and Bobby Orr, two of the core players of my opponent, compare? Let's just say that neither of them held up nearly as well against top teams. I'll start with Johnny Bucyk. He spent most of the 60s playing against top competition in the Original Six, but after expansion he put up a lot of points against weaker teams.

Johnny Bucyk, 1968-69 through 1974-75

OppositionGPGAP+/-ESGESPPPGPPPSHGSHP
Total6062683846521261703909726110
0.600+ opponents1395165116-102458275800
Less than 0.6004672173195361361463327020310
Total per 80 games80355186172251133400
0.600+ per 80 games80375592232557123500
Less than 0.600 per 80 gams80293767-61433163300
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Bucyk's scoring dropped from 86 points/80 overall to just 67 points/80 against top teams. His power play scoring held up, but his even strength scoring dropped almost in half. From 25 ESG and 57 ESP per 80 games against <0.600 teams, to 14 ESG and 33 ESP against 0.600+ teams. He was a minus player despite playing in front of Bobby Orr in these games. All while playing on the second line behind Cashman-Esposito-Hodge. That's not promising for his outlook on an ATD first line!

Bobby Orr, 1969-70 through 1974-75

I already made this point but I'll just post the same tables so you can see how much Orr's numbers dropped against the top teams. Especially from 72-73 on.

Bobby Orr, 1969-70 through 1971-72
OppositionGPGAP+/-ESGESPPPGPPPSHGSHP
Total23010726937626169214271351127
0.600+ opponents6726588442164253458
Less than 0.600163812112922195317222101619
Total per 80 games80379413191247494749
0.600+ per 80 games803169100501950641610
Less than 0.600 per 80 gams80401041431072684115039
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Bobby Orr, 1972-73 through 1974-75

OppositionGPGAP+/-ESGESPPPGPPPSHGSHP
Total2171072513582197022334122313
0.600+ opponents5319567521242103000
Less than 0.60016488195283217581812492313
Total per 80 games803993132812682134515
0.600+ per 80 games80298511331863154500
Less than 0.600 per 80 gams8043951381062888124516
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You can see Orr scored 30% less at even strength against the top teams. His plus-minus took a big hit against them from 1969-70 through 1971-72 (but was still very good), and then he was basically even against top teams from 1972-73 through 1974-75, a huge drop from the +106 per 80 games he posted against all other teams.
 

ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
Jun 18, 2013
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Why Pittsburgh Should Win:


1. Ottawa simply doesn't have the horses to consistently score against Pittsburgh top 4.

7 Year VsX points:

Ottawa Top 6 = 466.5 (70 for Larionov and 50 for Kapustin)
Pittsburgh Top 6 = 497.5 (95 for Malone and 82.5 for Martinec)

Despite not drafting a F until after the 100th pick, Pittsburgh actually possess better overall offensive potential in the top 6. Now consider what Ottawa's top 6 will be slamming into on the back end for Pittsburgh and vice versa.

7 Year VsX Points:

Ottawa Bottom 6 = 388.5
Pittsburgh Bottom 6 = 401.4 (51.6 for Crawford)

Again, Pittsburgh comes out ahead, though a smaller gap this time. There is simply no way to look at the groups of F's side by side and conclude that Ottawa F's will have more success against Pittsburgh's top 4/goalie vs what The AC's forwards will generate vs their counterparts.

Feel free to chime in if you think the scores for Larionov and Kapustin are too low.


2. Consider who is driving the puck transition from the back end?

Orr
Seibert
Hollett

vs
Kelly
Gonchar
Carlson

Orr is essentially Gretzky in this arena. As good as Red Kelly is at moving the puck and generating strong offensive totals, he's nowhere near Orr and Kelly skated with a better assortment of F's during his prime in Detroit. The quality of players heavily favors Pittsburgh and the overall offensive output of these 2 corps do as well.

Orr and Seibert are going to play a combined 55/56 minutes a night down the right side. That's an incredible wealth of push from the back end over a huge portion of the game.

Orr's 114.8 is like splitting the atom from the blueline in terms of how he impacts a game offensively speaking.

Anytime he steps onto the ice the overall potential offensive output for Pittsburgh skyrockets. He can greatly enhance ANY line offensively, and Pittsburgh is already ahead in that metric just looking at the F groups side by side.

Unlike Gretzky, Orr is not confined to enhancing a single unit (two if you count the PP). Even a 4th line of Metz-Goyette-Guerin cannot be taken for granted when Orr is out there with them.


And to be sure, Kelly, Gonchar, and Carlsson are actually a strong trio of puck movers collectively. But they still trail Pittsburgh’s group and they aren't connecting with a F group that in any way bridges the gap that exists overall between the two defenses.

So you have more offensive output up front for Pittsburgh, and more coming from the back end. And they’re going against a much weaker D and a slightly lesser goalie.


3. Consider who the primary defensive presences on the back end are?

Stevens
Laperriere
Morrow (4/5 minutes a night at RD)

vs

Goldham
Kasatonov
Reise Jr

Short and sweet, this is a major mismatch.

And looking at the primary puck movers, who are better defensively? Pittsburgh’s by mile. Gonchar and Carlson, at this level are liabilities to at least a small degree. They’re playing what, 32 minutes combined a night? Kelly is good defensively, probably in the same boat as Orr or Seibert. But the difference is Kelly can’t play 55 minutes a night like Orr and Seibert can.

Fortunately for Pittsburgh, the one guy who could get exposed at times (Hollett) won’t have to play much due to the quality of the players ahead of him. His presence is a luxury and one that plays well in an insulated and role specific capacity.


4. Disparity on the blue line is the single biggest gap of the series

Stevens-Orr vs Kelly-Goldham

Orr to Kelly isn't a massive gap and in most series Kelly would be the best #1 on either team but here he's comfortably behind Orr.

Orr simply does everything better across the board. There really isn't much we can discuss that we don't already know about the two of them.

Goldham on a top pair? Yeesh. I think he's a solid #4 in a draft this size and I acknowledge the real life chemistry is there with Kelly but it's still a stretch to see a player like Goldham riding shotgun on a top pair IMO. This is an exploitable player IMO. I particularly like the LW’s for Pittsburgh with their physicality and speed, getting in and really forcing the issue on a player like Goldham.

Stevens is miles better than BG so it significantly tilts the pairing toward Pittsburgh.

Laperriere-Seibert vs Kasatonov-Gonchar

The gap continues to widen significantly here.

This was the idea in mind when I decided to use 4 of my first 6 picks on the blue line. It's not that Kasatonov and Gonchar are subpar for a 3 and 4 role it's just they don't present the same challenge for the other team that Pitt's 2nd pairing does.


Ottawa’s 2nd pair is pretty average. Pittburgh’s duo is better than half of the leagues TOP pairs. This is a mammoth gap.

In home games especially, Pittsburgh can get the Malone line out there against Kasa and Gonch. We can get any of our lines out there against that unit AND a bottom pairing which will have to play its fair share of minutes whereas Pittsburgh's bottom pairing is much less exposed. And with Goyette in the lineup for this series, Pittsburgh has 4 lines that can put the puck in the net relative to their roles.


5. Key match-ups favor Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is well positioned to stamp out and neutralize the best offensive players for Ottawa.

How will Mike Bossy, Red Kelly, and company fare?

Bossy will be checked hard and well by Crawford who has 3 plus attributes here. Defensive play, elite physicality and speed. Add in the fact he’s a big body and he definitely should make Bossy’s life pretty miserable. Cook and Metz are also fabulous defensive wingers meaning Bossy will never really get away from a tough check.

Pete Green was clearly shown to use match up based defensive tactics depending on the opposing player. Here he has 3 clear plus defensive wingers to continually harass and body Mikey B but do we need to match up specifically?

That's the beauty of having a rolling group of plus defensive players down the left side. I don't need to line match here. No matter where Bossy goes, he's got a tough check and we haven't even discussed the LD's yet. Oh wait!

THEN consider you are staring down the welcoming duo of Stevens and Laperriere
. I'd say that's about as air tight defensively as you can get, while also being an incredibly physical duo which doesn't bode well for a finesse player like Bossy. Him getting into prime scoring areas unabated is likely a rare occurrence here. Certainly won’t get there without paying a price.

Bossy doesn't have a line mate that will come to his rescue when he gets put on his ass.

Hossa (2nd best RW for Ottawa) faces the same hurdles. He’s not a type that will push back much against the speed and more importantly physicality of the Pittsburgh LW’s and LD.


Expecting premium performances from the right side of Ottawa especially would be an interesting take to say the least.

Red Kelly on the left side has to contend with an array of skaters and scoring talents (Orr, Martinec, Cournoyer, Anderson, Seibert namely). He’s going to be forced to skate back and defend a lot in this series IMO and will endure a great mix of physical hammers (Anderson and Guerin) and skating/scorers (Orr, Seibert, Martinec, Roadrunner).

How aggressive is Kelly willing to play knowing Orr and Seibert are the ice generals staring back at him, not to mention the overall skating ability of the players on that side of the ice particularly? Going headlong into the Pittsburgh top pairings leaving Bob Goldham and a F to cover up?

Will Ottawa’s scoring line C’s hold up physically? Savard and Fedorov aren’t exactly rough and tumble players. Pittsburgh has the skaters to match them and the muscle to add the pain when they get lower in the zone.


Can Ottawa bridge the huge gap that exists between the Defensemen with their Forward Group? No.

As I showed in the 7 Year VsX comparison in an earlier post, Ottawa doesn’t even match Pittsburgh collectively when looking at the figures side by side, among forwards, be it top or bottom 6.

Pittsburgh will take the Malone vs Toews matchup on home ice in particular for one reason. Martinec vs Demitra is a recipe for success for Pittsburgh and I think Bucyk's physicality is going to play very well against Hossa and he’ll make for a rough experience in the corners against a Gonchar or Carlson when they’re on the ice, as will all the LW’ers for Pittsburgh for that matter.

I want to touch on Bucyk a bit here.

I knew when I picked him the initial reaction would be “meh” from most. The big drawback on him in most drafts is his VsX score is hammered as being overrated due to the “Orr factor”. Well, considering Orr just happens to be on the squad, that 88.7, 7 year score is legit. Especially with Malone replicating the Espo role and Martinec/Orr driving the group from the right side.

He brings more offensive value than Dickie Moore and held his scoring ability longer. People routinely overlook how damn consistent Bucyk was over a long, long career. His 10 year score nearly matches Moore's 7.


Bucyk 7 year = 88.7
Bucyk 10 year = 83.9
-4.8


Moore 7 year = 85.4
Moore 10 year = 74.3
-11.1

Dickie Moore is obviously a better hockey player than Bucyk, but which player is in a familiar situation compared to real life?


This is one of the reasons I dislike “fudging” numbers much for anything other than the war years (43/45). Trying to penalize Bucyk for instance because of Orr and not extending the same alterations to other players who obviously benefited from insanely strong/better teammates is odd. And it doesn’t even belong in the discussion here anyway since Orr is present.

Moore regularly skated with Beliveau, Richard, Geoffrion, etc at ES. Not to mention Doug Harvey controlling everything from the back end. Let’s not pretend the 5th or 6th best player on the 50’s Montreal teams didn’t benefit significantly from the talent surrounding him.

Savard is a large drop from any of those forwards. Bossy is obviously on the same tier as Geo, but who is going to fore-check on the line? Who is going to be the primary defensive conscious? Won’t be Bossy. Won’t be Savard.

With Moore doing the dirty work down low, as he should be, I think this line will have trouble at times covering up the other way, especially considering the 3rd line of Pittsburgh has plenty of counter offensive ability w/Hawerchuk and Anderson. And again, Pitt’s 3rd line is an elite skating conglomerate w/Hawershuk and Anderson grading extremely well at ES which is crucial for bottom 6 F’s. This line can fly and supported by players like Orr and Seibert, are going to blow the doors off teams in transition, especially those teams that have 2 weak defensive F’s (Savard/Bossy) with the one guy who’s solid in that area, playing low in the offensive zone routinely.

Bucyk brings a ton of intangibles to the table, and fills in the 2 biggest needs on a line with Malone/Martinec. Winning puck battles in the corners/along the boards and fore-checking heavily on the Goldham/Gonchar/Carlson trio.

There aren’t many wingers you can get outside the top 100 that possess the VsX score of Bucyk plus those traits mentioned above. With Bobby Orr in the fold, the normal avenue of attack/criticism against JB is largely nullified here.

Pittsburgh's 2nd line is one of the few that can legitimately boast it's as good if not better skating wise as the Russian trio Ottawa is sending out. Cook-Lemaire-Cournoyer is certainly in the conversation for best skating line in the ATD (along with Pitt’s 3rd line). Ottawa's 2nd line isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse with Fedorov only slightly better offensively than Lemaire, and Cook/Cournoyuer certainly providing more offensive impact vs Kapustin/Larionov. And the biggest advantage the Ottawa trio would normally have is absolutely neutralized by the elite skating ability of Pitt's 2nd group.


Is that Russian line going to hold up against the physicality of Pittsburgh’s top 4? They won’t outskate Orr or Seibert nor multiple Pittsburgh forwards.

That pits Crawford-Hawerchuk-Anderson (and to lesser degree 4th line) vs Moore-Savard-Bossy.

Obviously from a talent standpoint the wingers for Ottawa are significantly better. But Crawford and Anderson are the type of wingers I'd like to have in this match up. Super physical, plus defensively, especially Crawford, and you’re not going to outskate them. This line will generate lot on the fore check and hem teams in with their elite skating and physicality down low. Attached to Hawerchuk, they collectively provide good offensive punch to keep viewers from concluding this will be a one sided affair, possession wise or other.

The beauty of Pittsburgh's lineup is that it possess ridiculous wealth of skating, especially on the flanks and blue line. Trying to neutralize this team at center ice, trying to take away Orr's (or Seibert) ability to skate the puck up through neutral ice, is playing right into one of the best abilities of Pittsburgh's roster. Bucyk is an all time great forechecker, puck retrieval and cornerman. Cook will be on top of players all game long given his own speed and playing style. Lemaire was quite aggressive and physical. Anderson and Crawford? Absolute wrecking balls w/elite wheels. Metz and Guerin? More of the same, though probably only above average skaters vs elite.

But every line has at least one plus defensive player on it, to play a 3rd F high system with aggressive offensive contributions from the blueline. Pete Green's first tenure as HC for Ottawa played this exact style of hockey in large part as he was the man who moved Cyclone Taylor to point and took advantage of his and later Hamby Shore's skating and offensive acumen.

I'm confident in Bucyk/Martinec covering up when Orr/Seibert gets in deep. Same thing with Cook and Lemaire. Same thing with the wingers on the 3rd line or any of the guys on the 4th unit.

The point is this. Pick your poison. If you think playing a stationary game around C ice is the best course of action against this roster, w/ these skaters, be my guest. We'll make life miserable getting to the puck on the forecheck and have the skaters/physicality to do it well IMO.


Looking at this in “standard” format:

Moore>Bucyk
Malone>Savard
Bossy>Martinec


Cook=Kapustin
Fedorov>Lemaire
Cournoyer>Larionov


Crawford>Demitra
Hawerchuk=Toews
Hossa>Anderson


Metz>Clark
Goyette>Sanderson
Guerin>Ellis


Consider that. Then consider how massive the gap is on the blueline. Then consider the next position.


Goaltending edge to the AC

Bower, in a playoff series has to be the favorite here. While I think I was able to point out in an earlier debate that Durnan, despite a few rough playoff runs, also had some stellar performances for Montreal, he still doesn’t quite hold up to Bower who backstopped a dynasty in Toronto, after he had wrapped up the greatest career in the AHL to that point (and still to this day). Overall the gap is basically nonexistent in an all-time sense (I have Bower 13 and Durnan 15) but in the playoffs, on home ice, behind Pitt’s top 4, I have to feel good about Bower in this one.

Regular season peak favors Bower (best goalie in world over Plante. Hall, Sawchuk)

Regular season longevity probably = if you give Bower credit for his AHL dominance. Durnan only played 7 years but was a 1st team AS for 6 of them whereas Bower won 3 consecutive league MVP's in the AHL (was a 6 time AS) and then managed to at least be the best goalie in the world once, against 3 of the top 6 guys all time.

Postseason peak favors Bower (without the AHL).

Postseason longevity favors Bower (same).



Strong playoff performers abound for Pittsburgh:

As if the top 4 for Pittsburgh isn’t enough, 3 of those 4 players were Conn Smythe winners (Orr x2, Stevens and Seibert once each. Seibert being a retro winner). And Jacques Laperriere is certainly above average, the only “negative” being he missed a few series over the years due to different injuries. However, the playoff runs he was a part of, proved to be an integral part of the 60’s dynasty and early 70’s title teams.

Pitt has an incredibly battle tested and proven top 4 in postseason hockey.

Malone dominated the 1912 and 13 Cup challenges (14 goals in 3 games) when he led the Bulldogs to back to back titles, though the comp was weak. In 1919 he had a strong series against Nighbor/Ottawa though Lalonde was the most dominant player for Montreal.

Martinec was a very strong international player for the Czech’s, especially against the best competition at the time, the Soviets. The Soviets in fact feared him so much they tried to deliberately injure him. And he fared very well when facing North American competition in a handful of instances. 4 consecutive AS nods at the WC’s over Mikhailov speaks to his performances in the preeminent tournament in Europe at the time. 1976 being his absolutely peak which saw him dominate in the Olympics, WC, and CC, all inside a calendar year.

Bucyk was a sneaky good playoff performer as well, something that seems to get overlooked. 103 points in 124 playoff games. During the 1972 the Cup winning run he tied Espo and Hodge for the playoff lead in goals scored with 9. Consider he scored 39 points in 29 games (20+19) and was a +19 for Boston during their 70 and 72 Cup winning runs combined. He led the playoffs in PP goals both years as well (5 and 4).

To expand the sample size, from 1969 (age 33) through 76 (age 40), Bucyk played in 82 games and scored 88 points and was a +33. Those are stellar numbers for a player of that age, one of the biggest highlights of his career being how consistent he was as a secondary scorer for Boston and he clearly showed that in the playoffs.

Lemaire and Cournoyer (Smythe winner) were both very good playoff performers and had their best years skating side by side for Montreal so I really like their presence as a 2nd scoring line here.

Glenn Anderson has 214 career playoff points. But more importantly than the overall raw total is he scored 162 of those points (75.7%) at ES.

Compare that percentage to his Oiler counterparts:

Kurri 144 of 230 = 62.6%
Messier 173 of 280 = 61.8%
Gretzky 214 of 359 = 59.6%


Anderson was a money player for Edmonton time and time again. Every scouting report and reminiscing person old enough to have seen his career attests to this.

Only Maurice Richard, Claude Lemieux, Sakic, Gretzky, and Brett Hull have more GW playoff goals all time.

Only Maurice Richard and Joe Sakic have more playoff overtime goals all time.

Nick Metz was a key checking line player on the Toronto dynasty in the 40’s (4 titles). Phil Goyette was a checking line player on the last 4 Montreal’s title teams of the late mid to late 50’s under Toe Blake.

And last, but certainly not least, Bower was a money goalie for Toronto. His playoff record, including save % and shot volume against is tremendous, all time or against his peers in the 60’s, which were the likes of Plante, Sawchuk, Hall.

This is a team that is largely battle tested and proven top to bottom.
 

overpass

Registered User
Jun 7, 2007
5,254
2,730
Why Ottawa will win

1. Coaching. Scotty Bowman is widely considered greatest coach of all time and has an unmatched track record of success. Furthermore, this roster fits Scotty Bowman well, with a high skill level and two-way winning players throughout the lineup. Pete Green is a clear step down, and is coaching a team without strong defensive forwards.

2. Goaltending. Bill Durnan is a clear step up from Johnny Bower. Durnan was ranked #82 in HOH's last top 100 players and Bower was not ranked. Durnan was ranked #14 in the top goalies project and Bower was ranked #19. Kevin Allen and Bob Duff ranked Durnan 6th all time and Bower 18th all time in their 2002 book Without Fear -- and this is a book that Bower contributed to! Durnan was rated among the best of all time by some and Bower never really reached that level.

3. Forwards. Ottawa has three very strong two-way lines that can play against the highest competition. Pittsburgh has patched together forward lines with high VsX but did so by consistently drafting players who were overrated by the VxX model, such as secondary players who played with superstars.

Mike Bossy was an elite goal scorer with a completely resilient game who scored against all opposition and couldn't be slowed down. Dickie Moore peaked as arguably the best forward on the greatest team of all time, pairing a high-skill game with unmatched grit, will to win, and hard work. This is a pair of wingers whose game holds up against the best. Pittsburgh doesn't have a forward who can touch either of them. Johnny Bucyk was a paper tiger whose scoring dried up against top teams and who relied on an Orr/Esposito power play to score. Joe Malone was a top early era scorer who is miscast as the best player on an ATD first line. Vladimir Martinec is a decent ATD first liner but you can't rely on him to drive a line either.

Ottawa's Russian Five unit fits with Scotty Bowman and fits with the players. It is the ideal situation for Igor Larionov and Alexei Kasatonov to thrive. Sergei Kapustin should get a ton of goals -- remember he scored 60+ goals in under 100 games in top international tournaments for the Soviet National team, and he's playing with some great playmakers here. And Sergei Gonchar's high-skill, high IQ game combined with his penchant for pinching will absolutely thrive in this situation. Compare to Pittsburgh's second line. I actually like the Lemaire-Cournoyer core better than Pittsburgh's first line, but Bun Cook is a bit over his head here. Ottawa's line is just at another level for driving possession and scoring chances.

Toews-Hossa is a duo for the ages, playing like a coach's dream while shutting down top lines and posting big plus-minus numbers, both on the road and at home, for a dynasty. Pavol Demitra brings the Team Slovakia chemistry and some additional east-west creativity to put them over the top offensively. Pittsburgh's third line is a scoring duo of Hawerchuk and Anderson with Rusty Crawford tacked on. I don't see the line cohesion or purpose.

4. Why will Ottawa's edge at forward outplay Pittsburgh's edge at defence? Balanced teams beat unbalanced teams. I can't think of a Stanley Cup winner in history who was so unbalanced towards their defence corps. The 70s Canadiens at least had Guy Lafleur and Pittsburgh is sorely missing an offensive catalyst like Lafleur or Bossy. Maybe the 07 Ducks, but they at least had the best checking line in the league. Pittsburgh doesn't even have a checking line.

Ottawa's forward lines are built to apply two-way pressure and win puck possession all over the ice. Pittsburgh's forward lines are not. While the strong Pittsburgh defence may help create possessions from the back end, Pittsburgh's forward lines are not built to sustain this pressure.

A few specific notes to respond to my opponent.

1. Ottawa simply doesn't have the horses to consistently score against Pittsburgh top 4.

7 Year VsX points:

Ottawa Top 6 = 466.5 (70 for Larionov and 50 for Kapustin)
Pittsburgh Top 6 = 497.5 (95 for Malone and 82.5 for Martinec)

Despite not drafting a F until after the 100th pick, Pittsburgh actually possess better overall offensive potential in the top 6. Now consider what Ottawa's top 6 will be slamming into on the back end for Pittsburgh and vice versa.

7 Year VsX Points:

Ottawa Bottom 6 = 388.5
Pittsburgh Bottom 6 = 401.4 (51.6 for Crawford)

Again, Pittsburgh comes out ahead, though a smaller gap this time. There is simply no way to look at the groups of F's side by side and conclude that Ottawa F's will have more success against Pittsburgh's top 4/goalie vs what The AC's forwards will generate vs their counterparts.

Feel free to chime in if you think the scores for Larionov and Kapustin are too low.


70 for Larionov and 50 for Kapustin? 50 for Kapustin????

That doesn't even deserve a response. Come on.

This monomania with the VsX model has led you to draft players who are overrated by the model. We all know there are many factors that aren't considered by the model, especially the quality of ice time and teammates. I think we're better than just adding up VsX.

2. Consider who is driving the puck transition from the back end?

Orr
Seibert
Hollett

vs
Kelly
Gonchar
Carlson

Orr is essentially Gretzky in this arena. As good as Red Kelly is at moving the puck and generating strong offensive totals, he's nowhere near Orr and Kelly skated with a better assortment of F's during his prime in Detroit. The quality of players heavily favors Pittsburgh and the overall offensive output of these 2 corps do as well.

Orr and Seibert are going to play a combined 55/56 minutes a night down the right side. That's an incredible wealth of push from the back end over a huge portion of the game.

Orr's 114.8 is like splitting the atom from the blueline in terms of how he impacts a game offensively speaking.

Anytime he steps onto the ice the overall potential offensive output for Pittsburgh skyrockets. He can greatly enhance ANY line offensively, and Pittsburgh is already ahead in that metric just looking at the F groups side by side.

Unlike Gretzky, Orr is not confined to enhancing a single unit (two if you count the PP). Even a 4th line of Metz-Goyette-Guerin cannot be taken for granted when Orr is out there with them.


And to be sure, Kelly, Gonchar, and Carlsson are actually a strong trio of puck movers collectively. But they still trail Pittsburgh’s group and they aren't connecting with a F group that in any way bridges the gap that exists overall between the two defenses.

So you have more offensive output up front for Pittsburgh, and more coming from the back end. And they’re going against a much weaker D and a slightly lesser goalie.


Yeah, Bobby Orr was the all-time great puck mover from the back end. He also spent much of his short career being a liability against top teams burning him the other way, due to his knees deteriorating and limiting his mobility. Red Kelly was a great puck-mover himself, sometimes called the most valuable player on the Detroit dynasty, and he didn't have any defensive issues against anyone.

Seibert is hard for me to rate. I understand why you rate him so highly, but he was largely forgotten by history and spent his prime years unable to make the first all-star team, both when voted by writers and coaches. Yes he can rush the puck but does he integrate well into a successful team attack?

Sergei Gonchar was the best puck-moving defenceman of his generation and John Carlson is right there among his generation. Hollett is clearly the #6 out of the 6 defencemen mentioned here.

3. Consider who the primary defensive presences on the back end are?

Stevens
Laperriere
Morrow (4/5 minutes a night at RD)

vs

Goldham
Kasatonov
Reise Jr

Short and sweet, this is a major mismatch.

And looking at the primary puck movers, who are better defensively? Pittsburgh’s by mile. Gonchar and Carlson, at this level are liabilities to at least a small degree. They’re playing what, 32 minutes combined a night? Kelly is good defensively, probably in the same boat as Orr or Seibert. But the difference is Kelly can’t play 55 minutes a night like Orr and Seibert can.

Fortunately for Pittsburgh, the one guy who could get exposed at times (Hollett) won’t have to play much due to the quality of the players ahead of him. His presence is a luxury and one that plays well in an insulated and role specific capacity.

Don't forget that Bobby Orr himself can be exposed at times. And Ottawa's forwards provide much better support to the defencemen.


5. Key match-ups favor Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is well positioned to stamp out and neutralize the best offensive players for Ottawa.

How will Mike Bossy, Red Kelly, and company fare?

Bossy will be checked hard and well by Crawford who has 3 plus attributes here. Defensive play, elite physicality and speed. Add in the fact he’s a big body and he definitely should make Bossy’s life pretty miserable. Cook and Metz are also fabulous defensive wingers meaning Bossy will never really get away from a tough check.

Pete Green was clearly shown to use match up based defensive tactics depending on the opposing player. Here he has 3 clear plus defensive wingers to continually harass and body Mikey B but do we need to match up specifically?

That's the beauty of having a rolling group of plus defensive players down the left side. I don't need to line match here. No matter where Bossy goes, he's got a tough check and we haven't even discussed the LD's yet. Oh wait!

THEN consider you are staring down the welcoming duo of Stevens and Laperriere
. I'd say that's about as air tight defensively as you can get, while also being an incredibly physical duo which doesn't bode well for a finesse player like Bossy. Him getting into prime scoring areas unabated is likely a rare occurrence here. Certainly won’t get there without paying a price.

Bossy doesn't have a line mate that will come to his rescue when he gets put on his ass.

Hossa (2nd best RW for Ottawa) faces the same hurdles. He’s not a type that will push back much against the speed and more importantly physicality of the Pittsburgh LW’s and LD.


Expecting premium performances from the right side of Ottawa especially would be an interesting take to say the least.

Red Kelly on the left side has to contend with an array of skaters and scoring talents (Orr, Martinec, Cournoyer, Anderson, Seibert namely). He’s going to be forced to skate back and defend a lot in this series IMO and will endure a great mix of physical hammers (Anderson and Guerin) and skating/scorers (Orr, Seibert, Martinec, Roadrunner).

How aggressive is Kelly willing to play knowing Orr and Seibert are the ice generals staring back at him, not to mention the overall skating ability of the players on that side of the ice particularly? Going headlong into the Pittsburgh top pairings leaving Bob Goldham and a F to cover up?

Will Ottawa’s scoring line C’s hold up physically? Savard and Fedorov aren’t exactly rough and tumble players. Pittsburgh has the skaters to match them and the muscle to add the pain when they get lower in the zone.

Sure, go ahead and check Bossy with Rusty Crawford. Bossy played against much better LWs and still scored. He scored in the playoffs, he scored in the Canada Cups, he scored against top teams. Mike Bossy could not be shut down and Rusty Crawford is not the man to do it.

When was Sergei Fedorov ever shut down in the playoffs? He was an absolute playoff monster. Saying he's going to be shut down by physical play sounds like a Don Cherry take circa 1995.

I will concede Marian Hossa had some playoff struggles as the #1 offensive player on his line. While he could dominate possession, he lacked the creativity and vision to break down a set defence and generate dangerous scoring chances. Fortunately he's playing with linemates who have the vision and creativity to create those chances. However, I don't ever remember Hossa being ineffective because of physicality in the playoffs. Can you point to a playoff series where he was ineffective because of physicality (not because he was asked to do too much offensively)?

I want to touch on Bucyk a bit here.
I knew when I picked him the initial reaction would be “meh” from most. The big drawback on him in most drafts is his VsX score is hammered as being overrated due to the “Orr factor”. Well, considering Orr just happens to be on the squad, that 88.7, 7 year score is legit. Especially with Malone replicating the Espo role and Martinec/Orr driving the group from the right side.

He brings more offensive value than Dickie Moore and held his scoring ability longer. People routinely overlook how damn consistent Bucyk was over a long, long career. His 10 year score nearly matches Moore's 7.


Bucyk 7 year = 88.7
Bucyk 10 year = 83.9
-4.8


Moore 7 year = 85.4
Moore 10 year = 74.3
-11.1

Dickie Moore is obviously a better hockey player than Bucyk, but which player is in a familiar situation compared to real life?


This is one of the reasons I dislike “fudging” numbers much for anything other than the war years (43/45). Trying to penalize Bucyk for instance because of Orr and not extending the same alterations to other players who obviously benefited from insanely strong/better teammates is odd. And it doesn’t even belong in the discussion here anyway since Orr is present.


What do you think about the fact that Bucyk's even strength scoring dried up against top opponents, even when playing with Bobby Orr?

Moore regularly skated with Beliveau, Richard, Geoffrion, etc at ES. Not to mention Doug Harvey controlling everything from the back end. Let’s not pretend the 5th or 6th best player on the 50’s Montreal teams didn’t benefit significantly from the talent surrounding him.
Savard is a large drop from any of those forwards. Bossy is obviously on the same tier as Geo, but who is going to fore-check on the line? Who is going to be the primary defensive conscious? Won’t be Bossy. Won’t be Savard.


Moore won two Art Ross trophies. That's not what you see from a 5th or 6th best player on a team. Maybe he had the 5th or 6th best career but his peak was legit. The Moore-Richard-Richard was Montreal's best line and Dickie Moore was as good as anyone on that line.

With Moore doing the dirty work down low, as he should be, I think this line will have trouble at times covering up the other way, especially considering the 3rd line of Pittsburgh has plenty of counter offensive ability w/Hawerchuk and Anderson. And again, Pitt’s 3rd line is an elite skating conglomerate w/Hawershuk and Anderson grading extremely well at ES which is crucial for bottom 6 F’s. This line can fly and supported by players like Orr and Seibert, are going to blow the doors off teams in transition, especially those teams that have 2 weak defensive F’s (Savard/Bossy) with the one guy who’s solid in that area, playing low in the offensive zone routinely.


Can you provide anything to back up your contention that Bossy was weak defensively? I will concede Bossy was weak defensively when he entered the league, and Al Arbour would take him off the ice in defensive situations when he was a rookie. But Bossy was a very proud man who hated to be taken off the ice and hated to be subpar in any area, and he worked his ass off to become a good defensive player on a dominant two-way line.

Pittsburgh's 2nd line is one of the few that can legitimately boast it's as good if not better skating wise as the Russian trio Ottawa is sending out. Cook-Lemaire-Cournoyer is certainly in the conversation for best skating line in the ATD (along with Pitt’s 3rd line). Ottawa's 2nd line isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse with Fedorov only slightly better offensively than Lemaire, and Cook/Cournoyuer certainly providing more offensive impact vs Kapustin/Larionov. And the biggest advantage the Ottawa trio would normally have is absolutely neutralized by the elite skating ability of Pitt's 2nd group.

Is that Russian line going to hold up against the physicality of Pittsburgh’s top 4? They won’t outskate Orr or Seibert nor multiple Pittsburgh forwards.


Cook/Cournoyer certanily better offensively than Kapustin/Larionov? I like Cournoyer but this is Bun Cook, not Bill Cook. Let's be serious.

I can only assume you know very little about Sergei Kapustin when you assign him a VsX of 50. In 98 games for the Soviet national team at the World Championships, Olympic Games, and Canada Cups from 1974 to 1983, Kapustin scored 66 goals and 106 points in 98 games.

The Russian line does not rely on outskating on an individual basis. They rely on having two players attack one defender to force small-area 2-on-1s and winning those battles, and on skating between checks rather than at checks. When they beat you with speed, they do it by circling back and sending a pass to a player coming at full speed against the flat-footed defence. It's not because they're faster skaters as individuals but because they create speed differentials with their tactical play.
 
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ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
Jun 18, 2013
18,775
7,802
Oblivion Express
@ImporterExporter, in the 2018 top 100 project you ranked Bill Durnan #82 and Johnny Bower #105. How has your thinking on those two changed since then?

I answered all this with the AHL study I was working on. His 3 consecutive MVP's in the AHL, 6 time AS's, in a league that had more than few NHL regulars, including the likes of a 24 year old Pierre Pilote (1st MVP run). He won AS nods in the AHL, over NHL regulars like Gump Worsely and Gerry McNeil. I posted yearly AS teams for the AHL to highlight the quality of the league, which previous to my research wasn't really known or talked about. I think his AHL career, a HOF one at that, is absolutely worth moving the needle in an all time light.

Bower is now 13th all time IMO. I posted my updated G rankings here. Lots of discussion pre/post dates) this if you're so inclined.

Dishing the Dirt
 

ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
Jun 18, 2013
18,775
7,802
Oblivion Express
Why Ottawa will win

1. Coaching. Scotty Bowman is widely considered greatest coach of all time and has an unmatched track record of success. Furthermore, this roster fits Scotty Bowman well, with a high skill level and two-way winning players throughout the lineup. Pete Green is a clear step down, and is coaching a team without strong defensive forwards.

2. Goaltending. Bill Durnan is a clear step up from Johnny Bower. Durnan was ranked #82 in HOH's last top 100 players and Bower was not ranked. Durnan was ranked #14 in the top goalies project and Bower was ranked #19. Kevin Allen and Bob Duff ranked Durnan 6th all time and Bower 18th all time in their 2002 book Without Fear -- and this is a book that Bower contributed to! Durnan was rated among the best of all time by some and Bower never really reached that level.

3. Forwards. Ottawa has three very strong two-way lines that can play against the highest competition. Pittsburgh has patched together forward lines with high VsX but did so by consistently drafting players who were overrated by the VxX model, such as secondary players who played with superstars.

Mike Bossy was an elite goal scorer with a completely resilient game who scored against all opposition and couldn't be slowed down. Dickie Moore peaked as arguably the best forward on the greatest team of all time, pairing a high-skill game with unmatched grit, will to win, and hard work. This is a pair of wingers whose game holds up against the best. Pittsburgh doesn't have a forward who can touch either of them. Johnny Bucyk was a paper tiger whose scoring dried up against top teams and who relied on an Orr/Esposito power play to score. Joe Malone was a top early era scorer who is miscast as the best player on an ATD first line. Vladimir Martinec is a decent ATD first liner but you can't rely on him to drive a line either.

Ottawa's Russian Five unit fits with Scotty Bowman and fits with the players. It is the ideal situation for Igor Larionov and Alexei Kasatonov to thrive. Sergei Kapustin should get a ton of goals -- remember he scored 60+ goals in under 100 games in top international tournaments for the Soviet National team, and he's playing with some great playmakers here. And Sergei Gonchar's high-skill, high IQ game combined with his penchant for pinching will absolutely thrive in this situation. Compare to Pittsburgh's second line. I actually like the Lemaire-Cournoyer core better than Pittsburgh's first line, but Bun Cook is a bit over his head here. Ottawa's line is just at another level for driving possession and scoring chances.

Toews-Hossa is a duo for the ages, playing like a coach's dream while shutting down top lines and posting big plus-minus numbers, both on the road and at home, for a dynasty. Pavol Demitra brings the Team Slovakia chemistry and some additional east-west creativity to put them over the top offensively. Pittsburgh's third line is a scoring duo of Hawerchuk and Anderson with Rusty Crawford tacked on. I don't see the line cohesion or purpose.

4. Why will Ottawa's edge at forward outplay Pittsburgh's edge at defence? Balanced teams beat unbalanced teams. I can't think of a Stanley Cup winner in history who was so unbalanced towards their defence corps. The 70s Canadiens at least had Guy Lafleur and Pittsburgh is sorely missing an offensive catalyst like Lafleur or Bossy. Maybe the 07 Ducks, but they at least had the best checking line in the league. Pittsburgh doesn't even have a checking line.

Ottawa's forward lines are built to apply two-way pressure and win puck possession all over the ice. Pittsburgh's forward lines are not. While the strong Pittsburgh defence may help create possessions from the back end, Pittsburgh's forward lines are not built to sustain this pressure.

A few specific notes to respond to my opponent.



70 for Larionov and 50 for Kapustin? 50 for Kapustin????

That doesn't even deserve a response. Come on.

This monomania with the VsX model has led you to draft players who are overrated by the model. We all know there are many factors that aren't considered by the model, especially the quality of ice time and teammates. I think we're better than just adding up VsX.



Yeah, Bobby Orr was the all-time great puck mover from the back end. He also spent much of his short career being a liability against top teams burning him the other way, due to his knees deteriorating and limiting his mobility. Red Kelly was a great puck-mover himself, sometimes called the most valuable player on the Detroit dynasty, and he didn't have any defensive issues against anyone.

Seibert is hard for me to rate. I understand why you rate him so highly, but he was largely forgotten by history and spent his prime years unable to make the first all-star team, both when voted by writers and coaches. Yes he can rush the puck but does he integrate well into a successful team attack?

Sergei Gonchar was the best puck-moving defenceman of his generation and John Carlson is right there among his generation. Hollett is clearly the #6 out of the 6 defencemen mentioned here.



Don't forget that Bobby Orr himself can be exposed at times. And Ottawa's forwards provide much better support to the defencemen.




Sure, go ahead and check Bossy with Rusty Crawford. Bossy played against much better LWs and still scored. He scored in the playoffs, he scored in the Canada Cups, he scored against top teams. Mike Bossy could not be shut down and Rusty Crawford is not the man to do it.

When was Sergei Fedorov ever shut down in the playoffs? He was an absolute playoff monster. Saying he's going to be shut down by physical play sounds like a Don Cherry take circa 1995.

I will concede Marian Hossa had some playoff struggles as the #1 offensive player on his line. While he could dominate possession, he lacked the creativity and vision to break down a set defence and generate dangerous scoring chances. Fortunately he's playing with linemates who have the vision and creativity to create those chances. However, I don't ever remember Hossa being ineffective because of physicality in the playoffs. Can you point to a playoff series where he was ineffective because of physicality (not because he was asked to do too much offensively)?




What do you think about the fact that Bucyk's even strength scoring dried up against top opponents, even when playing with Bobby Orr?



Moore won two Art Ross trophies. That's not what you see from a 5th or 6th best player on a team. Maybe he had the 5th or 6th best career but his peak was legit. The Moore-Richard-Richard was Montreal's best line and Dickie Moore was as good as anyone on that line.



Can you provide anything to back up your contention that Bossy was weak defensively? I will concede Bossy was weak defensively when he entered the league, and Al Arbour would take him off the ice in defensive situations when he was a rookie. But Bossy was a very proud man who hated to be taken off the ice and hated to be subpar in any area, and he worked his ass off to become a good defensive player on a dominant two-way line.



Cook/Cournoyer certanily better offensively than Kapustin/Larionov? I like Cournoyer but this is Bun Cook, not Bill Cook. Let's be serious.

I can only assume you know very little about Sergei Kapustin when you assign him a VsX of 50. In 98 games for the Soviet national team at the World Championships, Olympic Games, and Canada Cups from 1974 to 1983, Kapustin scored 66 goals and 106 points in 98 games.

The Russian line does not rely on outskating on an individual basis. They rely on having two players attack one defender to force small-area 2-on-1s and winning those battles, and on skating between checks rather than at checks. When they beat you with speed, they do it by circling back and sending a pass to a player coming at full speed against the flat-footed defence. It's not because they're faster skaters as individuals but because they create speed differentials with their tactical play.



1. Ottawa is blown out of the water on the blue line

Ottawa's forwards, which are not offensively superior (collectively) to Pittsburgh's are facing a pair of insanely good #1 pairings, that are going to eat up 90-95% of the game, time wise. This is significant in match up hockey.

You have at least slight liabilities defensively there with Gonchar and Carlson, who will collective play 30+ minutes a night.

Pittsburgh has no such issue on the blue line, unless you want to include Hollett, the guy who's playing at most, 10 minutes a night, largely on the PP and offensive only situations.

Where are the liabilities for Pittsburgh on the back end?

Orr?

Rather comical considering he's playing next to Stevens, a top 20 defensemen and probably on the Mount Rushmore of Defensive Dmen, ever. I can throw Laperriere up there and we'd still be laughing at Bob Goldham playing on a top pairing in a draft this size. I can't stress how massive the gap is here, not just in overall talent but the historical rankings.

Seibert? One of the greatest shot blockers of his time? A hard lock top 20 Dman of all time, some have him inside top 15. A Chris Pronger esque player for a more modern comparison. Liability? Relative to whom? Gonchar? Don't make me die an early death there sir. And again, he’s supported by Laperriere, one of the best stay at home players post Harvey.

The fact is the 2 guys who are the primary rushers from the back end are both regarded as at least good defensively all time and relative to their era were certainly better than that. Orr’s dominance on the PK for example is hard to ignore. Might have been more about puck possession than shot blocking and flipping the puck down the ice but it worked and working next to Scott Stevens there or at ES?

Bobby Orr can go in as he would in peak performance KNOWING Scotty Stevens is back there covering up at a minimum.

That’s a major blunder I think most teams make when drafting Orr. They think the job is done on the back end for a while and over commit on F’s when F’s are far deeper a position to pull from.

Pittsburgh is built like Ottawa's first dynasty. I have responsible and/or outright good defensive F's on every single line, which means you'll see the rotation of F's to cover up the D men pinching and outright rushing into the offensive zone.

This is EXACTLY how Pete Green coached the Ottawa teams during his first tenure. You can see their insane offensive dominance during this time period in the Pete Green bio.

Always have a 3rd F high, cover up for the point/cover point (Dman) going in deep. This really took off when Green literally (like in real life) moved Cyclone Taylor back to the point position to take advantage of his speed and overall skill, over the length of a hockey rink rather than constraining him to a F spot where you were more restricted because of no forward passing. It continued on with Hamby Shore when Taylor moved out West. It was a distinct style, specifically highlighted in the bio on Green.

This way of playing is TAILOR MADE for Bobby Orr and Earl Seibert and Pete Green used his players in such a fashion, in real life.


2. Defensive ability of the Pittsburgh F’s is being glossed over.

Defensively how are Pitt's forwards?

Bucyk = responsible
Martinec = above average
Hell even Malone was shown BY YOU to be at least responsible during his time period which not all the scoring C's of the early eras can lay claim to.

Just to sidetrack into the offensive comparison quickly:

Bucyk = 88.7 (don’t forget about Bobby)
Malone = 95*
Martinec = 82.5*

266.2

vs

Moore = 85.4
Savard = 85.5
Bossy = 94.8

265.7

Ottawa's top line is a wash from a pure statistical output standpoint and you are running them into Stevens-Orr and then Lappy-Seibert all night long. It's night and day brother.

*95 is per Dreak's calculations and I settled on 82.5 (Hossa's a good comp) after originally placing him higher in the 85-90 range.

So even if you want to dock Malone a few points or Martinec further, it still doesn't present much of a gap.

And you're going to try and throw the odd "you drafted a bunch of overrated VsX players" argument as if any of the players you're talking about are being asked to carry a burden more than they did in real life, i can shut that down completely:

Consider:

Joe Malone was the primary offensive weapon on many of his teams. He literally won scoring titles over the likes of Newsy Lalonde and Frank Nighbor and Cy Denneny or finished just behind the likes. As others have said, he was a strong/fortunte pick as he absolutely represents quality 1st line scoring ability, namely putting the puck in the net, which is kind of great next to Bucyk and Martinec, w/the likes of Orr/Seibert pushing the pace from the back end.

He represents from a purely offensive standpoint AS MUCH as your 2nd round pick, Mike Bossy. It’s certainly not much of a gap even if one exists. Unless of course the 90 to 95 range is high for Malone.

Dickie Moore was never the best player on his team. He was never the unquestioned best player on his own line unless I’m crazy. I may be. Back to back scoring titles. Yep. Can’t argue it. Finished rather low in the Hart voting though despite those Art Ross wins. Let's not sleep on that.

Let’s also not pretend like Moore’s got Henri Richard here. THAT is a major point that needs to be brought up. Moore doesn’t have a C who’s going to do any of the things Richard did away from the puck. Certainly not remotely close to it.

Moore doesn’t scare me that much in this series. His 7 year VsX is barely better than Bucyk’s 10 year score. He doesn’t have a C remotely like Richard and Mike Bossy doesn’t play like Maurice Richard. Scoring goals? Sure. But he doesn’t have Richard’s edge. It’s a very different set of line mates.

Again, this is why I hate this fudge game as it pertains to painting with a broad brush. I think Bucyk is in a hellova lot more advantageous situation to replicate that oft cited "overrated" VsX score. Not only did Bucyk have a nice scoring peak, has the man most responsible for getting there, on this roster, and his longevity can't be denied either, something you can deny w/Moore.

I already touched on Bossy’s issues. One it’s match up based. Two, he doesn’t have a C remotely like Trottier or a LW like Gillies or Tonelli who are going to fly at any opposing players who go near him (Bossy).

Bossy simply will almost never have an “easy” shift out there. There is no super-duper Scotty Bowman way of getting him off a tough defensive winger or elite defensive defensemen.

Getting back to the defensive abilities of Pittsburgh:

Cook = great (against Bossy)
Lemaire = above average/good
Cournoyer = likely below average though he lasted a long time under Bowman so how bad was he really in the 70’s?

Crawford = great (against Bossy)
Hawerchuk = responsible
Anderson = average to above average

Metz = great (against Bossy)
Goyettte = above average
Guerin = responsible

You can spin it however you’d like but Bossy never had to endure a team that could roll 3 great defensive LWer’s all series, right on into the duo of Stevens and Laperriere. I will absolutely argue strongly that facing those prospects doesn’t = a strong series for Bossy. Pittsburgh is very well positioned to make his life or any RW’s miserable.

And unlike real life, Bossy doesn’t have anyone to stand up for him when he surely gets put out on his keister floating around the offensive zone in this series.

Martinec
was a dominant offensive hockey force in Europe through the 70’s. Must have been considering the Soviets went out of their way to intentionally injure him during international play. He drove a line often, was an absolute wizard with the puck on his stick, adept of passing or scoring. Clearly shown to be a plus defensive player thanks to added research in recent years.

How is Bucyk overrated again here? Or in a spot where he is being asked to do more than he did in real life? The fudge simply doesn't work as it usually does in years past. He's the 3rd wheel on the top unit and Orr is present and his skillsets fit the line/team perfectly.

Jacques Lemaire and Yvan Cournoyer are both underrated by VsX (BB has fleshed this out nicely, as did C1958 years ago) standards.

But even if you don’t think that to be true, they absolutely had their best years skating together as the primary offensive forces of the line (1971 through 73 specifically). This was when Cournoyer was an AS winger in consecutive years, winning a Smythe in 73, etc.

So yeah, before Lafleur arrived and really took off in 1974, there were a few years where Lemaire and Cournoyer WERE counted on to be primary offensive forces (along with Mahovlich). Lemaire literally led the Habs in scoring in 1973 (95 points) with Cournoyer to his right.

There is very legit chemistry, and they’re playing a supporting offensive role with a line above and below them that can score at a nice rate relative to the competition here. It’s a below average 2nd scoring line, but the 3rd and 4th lines of Pittsburgh supplement the 2nd unit well and again, there is a wealth of offense coming from the back end and those skaters can impact every line of Pittsburgh. Certainly more than Ottawa's counterparts.

Hawerchuk was Winnipeg. He was the guy forever and his offensive totals are hard to ignore, especially considering the lack of talent around him (and against him in that division). He is absolutely used to driving a line and not working with much so I think he’d be perfectly fine with an elite skating grinder who always saved his biggest goals for the playoffs (Anderson) and most importantly scored A LOT at ES. They both bring quality ES scoring to the table here.

Nowhere am I expecting a depth player (Bucyk, Anderson, Cook) to carry a line. None of them are on a line where they are needed to produce above the relative expectation. Bucyk, for all intents and purposes is the 3rd best offensive player on his line. And he’s got Orr. I like his chances.

Cook certainly doesn’t have Boucher or Bill here, but again he’s an elite skater, who can forecheck, strongly back check and chip in offensively. He’s not going to get left in the dust by the 2 Habs and his skillset fills the line out nicely. The empty boxes left by the 2 Habs are checked by Cook.

Crawford is what he is. A very physical, elite skating hell raiser who is going to do wonders on the fore-back check of that 3rd unit. A little less offense than I’d ideally like in his spot but then again Hawerchuk and Anderson represent well above average scoring at ES for a 3rd line. I’m not asking Crawford to overextend at all.

Goyette will play as he did in NY. Good skater, solid defensively, good on the fore check and quite competent offensively. Metz brings very strong defensively ability and Guerin can skate, hit like a brick shit house, and pot some goals. This line isn’t a pure defensive or offensive unit but all fill a role nicely for the group. As a whole, the line should absolutely work. The boxes are checked across the board.

Just as they are on each line.

Where is the F group on Pitt that will routinely forget to check back/cover up?


Doesn’t exist. A big point of going 4 of 6 D early was knowing I didn’t have to draft many pure checking F’s or entire lines to counter a top scoring group. They just need to be solid and responsible across the board. And I think I pretty clearly pulled that off.

Pittsburgh (me) long conned you and I think most everyone for that matter into thinking I was building a team very much slanted to the defensive. Doing so would rob Orr of his most powerful attributes specifically and doing such is, well, dumb. The forwards are collectively, a solid group defensively. Are they as good as Ottawa's top to bottom, defensively? No. But they don't have to be. They can score with Ottawa, line to line, and the blue line + goalie heavily favors Pittsburgh.


2. Bill Durnan is not a better goalie.

He didn't face better competition for awards/recognition not even remotely so.

Are we really going to compare Plante, Hall, Sawchuk to Brimsek, Broda, and enter whoever else you like further down the ladder and conclude that one didn't have a far bigger obstacle in obtaining recognition?

Yet despite that, Bower DID manage a 1st team AS over all of them. Being the best goalie in the world (and Hart runner up btw) in 1961 is a better apex than anything Durnan did on a stacked Habitant roster, one which took advantage of a very depleted league early in his career.

Bower beat the Plante’s and Hall’s like rented mules, all of them head to head in the postseason. Bower has one of the greatest SV% in league history, in the postseason. Not only did Bower post better numbers than most of his counterparts, he did it facing MORE shots, often, which was always the assumed legit argument against him.

“He was just a product of a great team in front of him.” Rubbish. The shots against, especially in the postseason don't tell that tale.

Some of the more esteemed statistical guru’s showed that in the Top 200 project and I outlined the playoff series where Bower faced more volume and still dominated better HOF’ers head to head.

Durnan had a few great playoff runs (one of them came during the height of the war depleted 1944 season) and he also had a few duds. He stepped into the NHL during the most depleted time in the history of the sport and was in the league for 7 years total. Not exactly a long period of time.

The only area you can get Durnan ahead is regular season longevity and that's only a gap if you give zero credence to Bower's dominance in the AHL, where he was a 3 time MVP and HOF, the only player in the history of hockey to have a plaque in both leagues btw.

And I believe I highlighted the fact he wasn't the only legitimate NHL regular in the AHL at this time. You had a 24 year old Pierre Pilote in the AHL during his first of 3 straight MVP campaigns for example. There is a thread in the HoH section outlining the year by year breakdown.

Regardless, on home ice, with the top 4 he has in front of him, in the playoffs, Bower has to be a slight edge here. Best case for Ottawa is a wash IMO.


3. By all means, give me a better idea of VsX for the 2 Russian wingers.

Kapustin was a checking man first no? What were his domestic scoring finishes and who did he skate with at ES? Those international stats, how do they compare to the stars of the Soviet team? Give him a 60? 70? Is he Vlad Martinec in the 80’s? I don't get the impression he was close to that level. I'm certainly open to be convinced otherwise. My knowledge of him is pretty limited at the current moment.

Larionov is absolutely rated where he should be. Please, if anyone thinks a 70 is underrating him I’m all eyes. He’s nowhere near that at the NHL level and while I’m guessing his Soviet numbers would put him more towards the 80’s range, it’s still an issue of line mates and usage and you can’t ignore the NHL offensive totals to begin with. What is his NHL 7 year score? 50, 55?

He was nothing remotely special offensively in the NHL and was flanked by Krutov and Makarov (99% sure) for years if you want to strictly focus on prime.

If you want to start “fudging” numbers you’ll lose that battle given Bucyk has his man in Orr riding with him to battle.

Larionov is playing out of his primary position at RW, no?

Even IF you think he’s a 70 (or better) that would take into account him playing with elite scoring wingers. Fedorov is not Makarov and Kapustin ain’t Krutov.

Also, the problem with your beatable 2 on 1 theory for this Soviet line is that you have to be able to get the puck off Orr and Seibert first and foremost. You're system is definitely built to take advantage of teams that don't have the transition game to beat it. Pittsburgh has no issues there. Or as close to no issue as possible in the ATD.

You aren’t going to win the races to the puck in Pittsburgh’s zone on the dump. You certainly aren’t going to skate by or around them. Won’t go through them.

So if you can't routinely skate the puck in, and you're not going to routinely win the race to it on the dump, you have to force them into a turnover, which is how likely exactly?

Orr, the greatest skater and greatest offensive threat/mind to ever grace the ice from the blue line and one of the most dominant offensive blueliners of his time, in Seibert, again an absolutely elite skater and puck handler in his day. This is well documented in his bio's if folks want to browse.

Do you really want to play chase the puck against the blue line of Pittsburgh? Especially with the speed and support their going to get from the F's under Green?

And their partners are Stevens and Laperriere, hardly incompetent with the puck or slow footed. These guys collectively are insanely good, insanely battle tested and quite frankly aren’t facing that strong a F group, offensively speaking. That’s not me lying. That’s the numbers speaking point blank.

You have, at the very least, in the conversation for best skating team in the ATD in Pittsburgh. We have elite fore checkers like Bucyk, Crawford, Anderson, with varying degrees of pluses being Cook, Guerin, Lemaire, Goyette. It's a never ending stream of pressure w/ the most important aspect in that pressure being skating and physicality.

Do you really think your team is going to consistently beat those forecheckers out of the zone, with skaters like Orr and Seibert and Stevens able to step up into the neutral zone on people expecting to take a breakout, if they aren’t harassed into a turnover first? Knowing the Pittsburgh F’s have the speed and defensive conscious to cover up in this scenario?

The 2nd and 3r lines of Pittsburgh are going to be particularly difficult to handle because they not only can score, they are 6 incredible skaters, supported by Orr/Seibert, who are more of the same. You have the fore-checking ability, the goal scoring, play making, the 2 way play. These groups are going to inherently push Ottawa back on their heels. and as I stated last night, force Kelly into playing a more reactive game.

I didn’t just throw some VsX numbers at a wall and hope it stuck. Been playing too long to get that lazy. I built a roster around Orr, focused on skating, puck possession and an ability to generate offensive pressure with all 4 lines while being at the very least solid defensively at F, so that I can accurately say Pittsburgh will cover up when the Orr and Seibert’s go in deep.

Go line by line for Pittsburgh. There isn’t a bad fit anywhere IMO. Not by traditional standards. And nowhere are those “overrated Vsx” players in a position where Pittsburgh needs to rely on their overrated scores to be successful.

I think it absurd to say the offensive lines of Pittsburgh aren't built to sustain offensive pressure.

The top line has every box checked.

Elite puck winning w/Bucyk who was adept at scoring or setting up goals. Goal scoring dominant C. Offensive wizard in Martinec who is essentially a more lethal Hossa (their respective ranking back up my comparison) capable of driving a line but he doesn't have to every time when Orr is around, which will be often. If you don't think that line is built to sustain pressure or generate chances through skill or scrap, I don't know what to tell you.

The 2nd line is probably the one line that is built more on transition but even that is a stretch to claim in absolute terms. Even still, this is a line that will generate legit scoring chances and at least a few scores simply based on their speed/skill. It would be a treat to watch Orr skating in full flight supported by the 2 Habs players, w/Cook playing the primary defensive conscious when the others go in deep. When he goes in on the forecheck, you know Lemaire will cover up. So on and so forth.

Cook was clearly shown to be a puck winning winger. Doesn't read as good as Bill but the updated research certainly shows him to be a scrapper be it fighting or battling in the corners. He had elite wheels, was plenty physical and possessed a ton of intangibles. He clearly drove the Bread Line at times and was absolutely integral to its success. Again, it's all right in the updated bio, from city papers outside NY to boot.

Lemaire was strong as an ox, was a good checker, in both directions. Both Lemaire and Cournoyer thrived and lasted the duration of Bowman's tenure in Montreal no? If Scotty approves, you know they can play the 2 way game. Obviously you'd like a better score somewhere in a VsX realm, but the line itself is well balanced, it has legit and strong chemistry with that chemistry being 2 very, very good postseason players.

The 3rd line doesn't have cohesion or purpose? It's obviously a line built to supplement the lower offensive output on the 2nd group without being weak defensively.

Crawford and Anderson present an incredible duo at getting in on the forecheck. Like all time great at doing it. That's based on sheer skating speed/ability coupled with elite physicality. Anderson, again as noted earlier, scored A LOT at ES.

Hawershuk, as noted above, drove an entire team forever. He is absolutely the type of player who can drive a depth scoring line and was used to playing with subpar linemates so I don't think he'll have trouble working with 2 guys that can skate and generate pressure on the forecheck w/Anderson more than capable of finishing as a goal scorer. Certainly from a 3rd liner standpoint.

Crawford isn't a good or even average scorer but he's certainly not a black hole, and again, checks off many of the glue guy boxes and isn't being asked to contribute more than normal.

This is a line that will put so much strain on Ottawa w/ their skating and relentless physical play on the flanks along with a premium offensive force at C, again as a 3rd line player. You have skill and finishing ability and heavy play on both wings. Is it hard to see this line struggling to get a cycle going or pushing teams back/blowing by them w/ their speed?

4th line is again, built to keep up the pressure. Metz presents a great defensive player, and underrated offensive contributions especially as a playoff performer.

Goyette was good in both directions. Even in NY his +/- numbers look better at a passing glance than the other scoring line players. He was a good check as a younger player in Montreal and he certainly doesn't seemed to have bled goals like other Rangers. He's a nice playmaker for a 4th liner, especially looking at ES figures.

Guerin was actually a good skater for a big dude. He was very physical and peaked as a postseason AS. Was a good goal scorer at his peak as well. So again, you have all the elements you want from a depth unit. This line could hurt you offensively in a limited role, and they aren't a liability defensively.

Any of those lines can skate or muck their way into offensive position and again, that isn't even factoring in Orr/Seibert.

If people see it differently, no biggie.
 

overpass

Registered User
Jun 7, 2007
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I answered all this with the AHL study I was working on. His 3 consecutive MVP's in the AHL, 6 time AS's, in a league that had more than few NHL regulars, including the likes of a 24 year old Pierre Pilote (1st MVP run). He won AS nods in the AHL, over NHL regulars like Gump Worsely and Gerry McNeil. I posted yearly AS teams for the AHL to highlight the quality of the league, which previous to my research wasn't really known or talked about. I think his AHL career, a HOF one at that, is absolutely worth moving the needle in an all time light.

Bower is now 13th all time IMO. I posted my updated G rankings here. Lots of discussion pre/post dates) this if you're so inclined.

Dishing the Dirt

If Johnny Bower's AHL career impressed you, wait until you hear about Bill Durnan's senior league career!

Durnan was a Toronto Maple Leafs prospect in his teens, but they dropped him when he suffered off-ice injuries. Durnan became embittered toward pro hockey and decided he wouldn't play in the NHL. He spent several years refusing NHL offers while playing top level senior hockey. He was in the Allan Cup playoffs in 1939, 1940, and 1941, and in 1940 he was the goaltender for the Allan Cup winning Kirkland Lake Blue Devils.

After winning the Allan Cup, Durnan moved to Montreal for a good job and a position with the senior amateur Montreal Royals, where he played for three seasons. Dick Irvin Jr wrote in "In The Crease," "The most frustrating of the many frustrating experiences (my father) endured during his first three seasons in Montreal was watching Durnan play his home games for the Royals right in the Forum. It was obvious the amateur team had much better goaltending than the professional team that played in the same building." But Durnan repeatedly refused all offers to go professional, and only gave in hours before the start of the 1943-44 season when the Canadiens finally offered him $4,200.

Voices from the Past: Bill Durnan

Bill Durnan: 100 Greatest NHL Players
 

ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
Jun 18, 2013
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Oblivion Express
If Johnny Bower's AHL career impressed you, wait until you hear about Bill Durnan's senior league career!

Durnan was a Toronto Maple Leafs prospect in his teens, but they dropped him when he suffered off-ice injuries. Durnan became embittered toward pro hockey and decided he wouldn't play in the NHL. He spent several years refusing NHL offers while playing top level senior hockey. He was in the Allan Cup playoffs in 1939, 1940, and 1941, and in 1940 he was the goaltender for the Allan Cup winning Kirkland Lake Blue Devils.

After winning the Allan Cup, Durnan moved to Montreal for a good job and a position with the senior amateur Montreal Royals, where he played for three seasons. Dick Irvin Jr wrote in "In The Crease," "The most frustrating of the many frustrating experiences (my father) endured during his first three seasons in Montreal was watching Durnan play his home games for the Royals right in the Forum. It was obvious the amateur team had much better goaltending than the professional team that played in the same building." But Durnan repeatedly refused all offers to go professional, and only gave in hours before the start of the 1943-44 season when the Canadiens finally offered him $4,200.

Voices from the Past: Bill Durnan

Bill Durnan: 100 Greatest NHL Players

I would respectfully say there is a big difference between Sr. level hockey and AHL hockey where you had young, future NHL HOF'ers litter the league during Bower's timeframe (Hall, Sawchuk, Horton, Pilote, etc, etc).

Just as there is a difference between being on some playoff teams w/one title vs a guy who was literally the first G to be voted MVP of said league, and he did it three consecutive years. A feat that's never been duplicated (Fred Glover is only other player with 3 total wins). Bower also won 3 Calder Cups, 2 of which he was the full time starter.

Not playing in the NHL during the 50's, had a lot more to do with financials then lack of ability in Bower's case. Again, these things have been fleshed out. So he and Durnan were likely robbed off more regular season meat based on limited spaces in a 6 team league and haggling over costs. In that, they do share some similarities.

There were a good many NHL regulars/fringe types in the AHL, in their early to mid 20's during the 50's and 60's. There were even some NHL HOF'ers. It's not like Bower was dominant in a league void of actual talent. Pretty easily the 2nd best league in the world, certainly through the mid to late 60's when Bower was in the NHL anyway.

If people don't give credence to the AHL portion of his career, most of which wasn't known prior to me actually going year by year to see who was actually playing in the league and know Bower was beating out for accolades, and not just looking at the bullet points like 3 MVP's, I'm not going to kick and scream. Is what it is. I literally moved Bower up about 5 odd spots in the goalie rankings and 25ish in an overall time sense based on all my AHL findings. I don't think that extravagant.

As I said before. Imagine having a HOF career in 1960's USSR (comparable talent/depth to Bower's time in the AHL) and then still doing enough to have a HOF career in the NHL? Into your 40's.

The vast majority of Bower's value was always tied to his NHL career. So if that gets him ranking 18-20th all time among goalies, I think a dominant HOF career (as in like a decade) in the 2nd best league in the world honestly validates bumping him up a few spots on the goalie ladder. It's not like I'm catapulting him into the top 10. Really, I simply have him higher up on the same tier he was already on to begin with. There are 7 or 8 goalies from Belfour down that all reside on one hill basically.

Again, if people disagree (I know some do from previous discussions) no problem.

In this series, being a best of 7, with home ice advantage, with the top 4 in front of him, I think Bower represents a very slight edge for Pittsburgh. Or a wash.
 

ResilientBeast

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Jul 1, 2012
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70 for Larionov and 50 for Kapustin? 50 for Kapustin????

That doesn't even deserve a response. Come on.

This monomania with the VsX model has led you to draft players who are overrated by the model. We all know there are many factors that aren't considered by the model, especially the quality of ice time and teammates. I think we're better than just adding up VsX.

This is especially confusing for me, those values are way off and seemingly are just given as nice round numbers to devalue these two

Edit: Like I have fairly open issues to playing Larionov on the wing but 70 is stupid low. And 50 for Kasputin is a joke
 

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I so love being accused of intentionally doing stuff every year. It really gets old. Nobody else gets treated this way. Nobody. f***ing sick of it....

Then what should they be? I honestly don't know. I'm going by what I've read. I asked that and nobody has answered.

Larionov is stupid low at 70? Are you kidding me? The guy who was flanked by Krutov and Makarov? The guy who's NHL VsX is what? 55?

Are you going to seriously say he's as good as Martinec offensively? Really? A low 80's player? It's rubbish.

Kapustin? What is he? Where did he finish domestically? Where did he finish among Soviet forwards in tournaments?
 

ResilientBeast

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I so love being accused of intentionally doing stuff every year. It really gets old. Nobody else gets treated this way. Nobody. f***ing sick of it....

Then what should they be? I honestly don't know. I'm going by what I've read. I asked that and nobody has answered.

Larionov is stupid low at 70? Are you kidding me? The guy who was flanked by Krutov and Makarov? The guy who's NHL VsX is what? 55?

Are you going to seriously say he's as good as Martinec offensively? Really? A low 80's player? It's rubbish.

Kapustin? What is he? Where did he finish domestically? Where did he finish among Soviet forwards in tournaments?

So you threw a number out there without even looking at his record?
 

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Honestly, given that nobody has said much of anything on this topic, I can either conclude, that A, nobody is reading these write ups, or B, not that many people think those scores are that offensive.

I'll wait for someone to break down what their relative VsX should look like. I'm pretty sure 70 is a very acceptable score for a defensive first C who absolutely benefited playing off 2 superstar wingers internationally and never did anything of note offensively in the NHL from 30 onward. No chance he's worth more than 70, maybe mid 70's.

He's certainly not worth his C score playing out the RW, so it's irrelevant anyway. And I'll be shocked if other ATD voters come in here and say 70 is "stupid low".

As I said from the beginning, I'm fully open to being swayed on Kapustin. But until someone puts his domestic scoring finishes, who he was skating with domestically, how his international scoring finishes stack up, I'm not convinced.

You make it sound like Kapustin is as offensively gifted as a guy who ranked just outside the top 100 (Martinec) and was shouted down when I tried to put a 85-90 relative score on him. Thus settling on 82.5

So again, please, I want to see the HoH and ATD members that are going to say Kapustin is worth even 10% less than Martinec's offensive value.
 

ResilientBeast

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You make it sound like Kapustin is as offensively gifted as a guy who ranked just outside the top 100 (Martinec) and was shouted down when I tried to put a 85-90 relative score on him. Thus settling on 82.5

So again, please, I want to see the HoH and ATD members that are going to say Kapustin is worth even 10% less than Martinec's offensive value.

What? I just said 50 is plain wrong
 

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So you threw a number out there without even looking at his record?

I read his bio. Any numbers were lost in the migration.

I went off his traits, his draft position and other players that seemed to be of similar quality. I do not get the impression he was any sort of dominant offensive force. Change my mind.

Like I said above. I'm all eyes and ears as to what you or anyone else thinks. I'm guessing you think he's worth 20 more points? 30? If that's the case then Martinec's a 90+ because in nobody's world do people think Sergei Kapustin was on the same level offensively. If that were the case, he'd be ranked a lot higher than he is first and foremost.

ATD 2013 BIO Thread (quotes, stats, pics, sources, everything)
 

ResilientBeast

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Honestly, given that nobody has said much of anything on this topic, I can either conclude, that A, nobody is reading these write ups, or B, not that many people think those scores are that offensive.

Also @overpass already commented on it...and given you're his opponent I let them call something out first generally speaking
 

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What? I just said 50 is plain wrong

That's fine sir. I don't object to that. I object to it being called "a joke" or "stupid low" in Larionov's case. Especially if people aren't going to even attempt to come up with a number. I hate just saying "that's BS" without offering a sensible counter.

I mean I did highlight, in bold in my overview, that Larionov is out of position and with far less talent than Makarov/Krutov. So, one, I don't think 70 is at all low for him, and two, even IF it is a bit low, he's not playing remotely the same way or in the same position he did in real life. So....

Kapustin is the wild card. I'm certainly open to seeing that number jump. It just takes discussion which I'm all for! Been doing this too long and have reformed myself well the past few years I think and in no way am trying to short anyone. It's simply a case of a rough guess that MAY be off more than I thought.

But even if you want to bump Sergei to a 75, +25 points still doesn't create a gap in collective VsX. Ottawa is already behind by 30 odd points in the top 6 with the 70 and 50 for the 2 Soviets. You can give them another 30 points and it only evens up the top 6's.

And if there is relative equal between the 2 forward groups, who do you think is going to have more success generating scoring chances when you consider who each team is rolling over the bench on the blueline? Pittsburgh has no liability back there. How well do Gonch and Carlson hold up playing 30+ minutes a night? We can essentially play 2 pairings 95% of the series. There are no easy matchups to exploit and frankly Ottawa doesn't have the horses to consistently threaten Pittsburgh's citadel. Bossy and Hossa especially are up against about as tough a series as you'll ever see. Again, because they get no easy shifts or exploitable matchups.

Sure, the Senators have wonderful defensive C's but that doesn't really help them considering Pittsburgh is built, in this matchup, to make their C's beat us, and I don't think Savard, Fedorov, Toews, and Sanderson is capable of doing that. That is, a very weak collection of scorers in a draft this size.
 

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