ATD2021 Foster Hewitt Divisional Semi-Final: Orillia Terriers vs. Philadelphia Phantoms

[ChiTownPhilly]

But VsX, nabby!

VsX!!!!!

No, no! Not just VsX! But 7-year, Regular Season VsX!!

Suchy =< Stapleton

Does anyone- and I mean, literally anybody else at all- hold this position?!?

It has the feel of statement that, if presented in the form of a motion, would risk dying for lack of a "second."

In the HoH Top-60 Defensemen Project roughly 5 years ago, Suchý came in at #49, and Stapleton wound up omitted. [Stapleton didn't entirely escape consideration, having leaked into the discussion in the penultimate round.] In the HoH Top-100 projects, half-a-dozen panelists found room for Suchý on their lists of 120... and zero-zip gave Stapleton any such consideration.

Break down my analysis and explain why it’s wrong.

Time grows short, and there are over 3-dozen other interesting players who could be discussed... but the 'Coles-Notes' response is that we go astray by averting our eyes from Nation v. Nation Play and disregarding the work of video-analysts.

Jacques Plante Effect:
Obviously, Orillia has a significant advantage in puck-stopping

Advantage? Yes- all right. Significant advantage?!
Plante's Playoff Save Percentage is .922. Parent's Playoff Save Percentage is .916. [And, as @Hockey Outsider has pointed out, Parent is almost certainly undervalued by the Save Percentage stat, as his often short-handed team faced more high-danger scoring chances.] Even without considering that aspect of the equation, an .006 edge in Save Percentage, over the course of a seven-game series, counts for about one (1) goal.

Chemistry is underrated.

Denneny with Nighbor,
Novy with Nedomansky,
Sedin with Sedin...

Dang, that's good.

Teasing my closing argument, I see.

Thanks.

 

[Dreakmur]

Does anyone- and I mean, literally anybody else at all- hold this position?!?

Yes, and I explained why I think it’s the right position.

Do you think Suchy’s offensive accomplishments are equivalent to 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 6th, and 9th in the NHL? I don’t.

Do you think his offensive accomplishments are equivalent to a 7 season vs.x score of 92.5? I don’t.

Do you think Suchy’s defensive game is better than Stapleton’s? I don’t.

In the HoH Top-60 Defensemen Project roughly 5 years ago, Suchý came in at #49, and Stapleton wound up omitted. [Stapleton didn't entirely escape consideration, having leaked into the discussion in the penultimate round.] In the HoH Top-100 projects, half-a-dozen panelists found room for Suchý on their lists of 120... and zero-zip gave Stapleton any such consideration.
Time grows short, and there are over 3-dozen other interesting players who could be discussed... but the 'Coles-Notes' response is that we go astray by averting our eyes from Nation v. Nation Play and disregarding the work of video-analysts.
Advantage? Yes- all right. Significant advantage?!

Yes, the lists where people want to rank a certain number of non-NHL talent regardless of debate. There’s a reason I stopped participating in those years ago.

Plante's Playoff Save Percentage is .922. Parent's Playoff Save Percentage is .916. [And, as @Hockey Outsider has pointed out, Parent is almost certainly undervalued by the Save Percentage stat, as his often short-handed team faced more high-danger scoring chances.] Even without considering that aspect of the equation, an .006 edge in Save Percentage, over the course of a seven-game series, counts for about one (1) goal.

Using career save percentage is misleading. For starters, league wide shooting percentages fluctuated over the years, so the only way to really evaluate their save percentages is to compare them to the league average on a yearly basis.

Also, Plante played a much longer career, and sustained greatness is better.

Jaqcues Plante led the playoffs in save percentage six times. Bernie Parent did that twice.

Jacques Plante is very significantly better than Bernie Parent.

 

[Dreakmur]

Coaching and Team Tactics:
Lester Patrick is one of the elite ATD coaches. He's got the winning pedigree. He was an innovator. He's got the contemporary support. Most importantly, he has the versatility to coach different kinds of teams and coach different types of styles to adjust to opposing tactics. He led the New York Rangers offensive powerhouse for years, but before that, he ran the defensive Victoria squad that famously shut down Howie Morenz.

Tommy Gorman is in the very large group of good ATD coaches. Like most of the guys in that group, he's a coach that works best with a very specific type of team. If he can employ his specific strategy with a team that fits, he's a very good coach. If not, he's rather mediocre. Philadelphia put together a team that fits Gorman's dump and chase style pretty well.

In this series, as I mentioned, Jacques Plante's puck-handling ability will be a huge obstacle for Philadelphia's forechecking tactics. As the guy who started it all, I'm not sure he shouldn't be considered the best puck-handling goalie of all time.

Combined with Plante, Orillia's defensemen are very strong in terms of retrieving pucks and moving it up ice quickly. With a very mobile group of defenders, most of who make consistent breakout passes, it's going to be extremely difficult for Philadelphia to get in n the forecheck.

Advantage Orillia


Goaltending:
Jacques Plante is among the elite goalies. He combines an excellent peak with a very long career, as well as impressive play-off success.
Bernie Parent is among the mediocre goalies in this draft. He's got good play-off success, but he's still pretty average in a 24 team draft.

Large Advantage Orillia


Defensemen:
Denis Potvin is clearly the best defenseman in the series, and he's an excellent play-off performer. After that, the bluelines are very close.
Neidermayer vs. Weber
Stapleton vs. Suchy
White vs. Ragulin
Subban vs. Giordano
McDonagh vs. Harris

I'm sure many opinions vary on who's better in each slot, but I'm not sure either team can claim any significant advantage in any of these slots.

Advantage Philadelphia


Forwards:
Obviously, Orillia has a huge edge in scoring, and Philadelphia has a huge edge in defending.

Orillia's top line is easily the most dangerous scoring line in the draft. Gretzky is the engine. Conacher is an elite scorer who brings a physical presence. Phillips is an elite defensive winger who brings speed and decent offensive skills. All three line mates are also proven play-off difference-makers. The wingers on these lines are pretty close, so the difference remains Gretzky vs. Nighbor, which is a very significant edge for Orillia.

Orillia's second line isn't particularly explosive, but each of it's three players is a good contributor. Marchand has caught Zetterberg now, right? His 4 consecutive top-11 in Hart voting is pretty impressive. Tough to really evaluate Novy and Nedomansky, but I think Barry and Bauer are better respectively. Bauer has 5 all-star calibre seasons sandwiched around World War II. Both Marchand and Barry are play-off difference-makers.

Orillia's third line also brings loads of scoring. Panarin and Provost are excellent scorers at even strength, and Weiland brings a well-rounded two-way game. Bergeron is an elite defensive centre, though his scoring is very weak if you account for his high PP usage in Boston. Claude Lemieux is a 4th line agitator and Madden is a 4th line centre playing out of position. Weiland is a play-off difference maker.

Orillia's fourth line is essentially a mix-and-match group of specialists. Henry gives my PP some bite. Curry gives my PK some depth. Sutter gives me some toughness and leadership. It likely doesn't function all that well as a unit at 5 on 5. Philadelphia's line, however, is a legit unit. I think it might be better than their second line.

Orillia has a large edge on the 1st and 3rd lines, and an edge on the 2nd line. Philadelphia has a large edge on the 4th line.

Large Advantage Orillia


Match-ups:
Philadelphia has two players worthy of defensive matchups - Cy Denneny and Denis Potvin. Claude Provost lines up in the perfect position to take either of those duties.


Play-off Pedigree:
Gretzky - 2x Conn Smythe, 6x Play-off scoring leader
Phillips - 2x Cup Challenge scoring leader
Conacher - Conn Smythe, Play-off scoring leader
Barry - 2x Play-off scoring leader
Marchand - Play-off scoring leader
Weiland - 2x Play-off scoring leader
Curry - Play-off scoring leader

Niedermayer - Conn Smythe, Play-off scoring leader
Doughty - 2x Play-off scoring leader
Stapleton - 2x Play-off scoring leader

Jacques Plante - Conn Smythe, 6x Play-off save percentage leader​

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

Dreak definitely upped his advocacy game with his most recent post- but the double-post impels to to go back and address a couple of points from the earlier, not quite as well-reasoned post:

Suchy =< Stapleton

Does anyone- and I mean, literally anybody else at all- hold this position?!?

I suppose I phrased this imprecisely- but for me, the operative word here was "else." In other words, having heard the preach, was there anybody (other than yourself) out there willing to give you an "amen!(?)"

Using career save percentage is misleading. For starters, league wide shooting percentages fluctuated over the years, so the only way to really evaluate their save percentages is to compare them to the league average on a yearly basis.

My reading of NHL statistics suggests that shooting percentage was lower in Plante's time than it was in Parent's era. Therefore, if we think that Save Percentage vs. League Average is relevant (and honestly, I don't- it's really unfair to Plante to use such a statistic), then that metric would redound to the benefit of Parent.

I would never be so disingenuous as to use a "Goals-Saved-Above-Average" statistical framing and use it to pimp Parent at the expense of Plante. Everyone knows that average goaltending in Plante's era was so much better than average goaltending in Parent's time. A much better way to perform this function would be to compare how the goalies performed against the other elite competition of their respective eras. The last time I took the Vernier Calipers to Plante, I created this post as evidence that you basically need Vernier Calipers to measure the difference between Prime Plante and Prime Dryden.

Plante's better than Dryden. Dryden's better than Parent. Prime Plante (all told) stops 1-2 pucks a season (tops!) more than Prime Dryden does. Playoff Plante stops (maybe!) one puck a series more than Playoff Parent.

Tommy Gorman is in the very large group of good ATD coaches. Like most of the guys in that group, he's a coach that works best with a very specific type of team. If he can employ his specific strategy with a team that fits, he's a very good coach. If not, he's rather mediocre. Philadelphia put together a team that fits Gorman's dump and chase style pretty well.

This is one of your more subtle points- and it contains a premise that I'd like to explore a bit further. First of all, I appreciate that you've judged the coach suitable for the Philly squad. One of the little joys of drafting a defensively-oriented team is that it expands options on the coaching front. Having said that, I utterly reject the premise that old-time coaches are bound by their old-time tactics when assessing ATD. Most ordinary pro-coaches have an arsenal of tactics, accumulated over a century-plus of hockey history, and will choose the ones they believe most suitable for the relevant situations. If ordinary coaches can do this, then all-time ones surely would be able to do so, too. The idea that Gorman would be ossified in commitment to the tactics of his time is about as credible as saying that Conacher would be ossified in commitment to use period-specific equipment.

No honest encounter with a team containing one of the 'Big-4' should go by without an answer to the question "what do we do about THAT guy?!" In in our case, it's the biggest of the big-4, #99 himself. Daunting. Daunting, but certainly not hopeless. In the case of The Phantoms, we have not one but two epicly great Defensive Centers- Nighbor & Bergeron. Bergeron has advanced defensive metrics that, when placed on a 'scatter-gram' alongside his contemporaries, basically show that he is hors catégorie. Nighbor, of course, is hors catégorie on an all-time basis. While it might be over-the-top to say, as one long-time contributor has, that he's "a one-man neutral-zone trap," you can at least see how the statistical record would give rise to such turns-of-phrase. While we'd prefer Nighbor, a fresh Bergeron would be all right, if it's his turn on rivet.

Continuing with our Gretzky mitigation protocol, we would want an occasional circuit-breaker to his primary passing option. Doug Harvey would be optimal- but Denis Potvin should be okay in that role. Finally, we'd want a top-flight Goaltender- and there are a handful of options better than Parent- but Parent IS something of a "High-Danger-Scoring-Chance-Denied" specialist- (and he has as many Smythes as that opponent to which we refer)! PLUS he's never lost in the Second Round of The Playoffs.

If, as Ian Fleming famously said: "once is happenstance; twice, coincidence, but three times is enemy action;" then what's four times?!

Now (as I said before) none of this is intended to say that Gretzky will be anything other than the very best player on the ice no matter what the match-up- AND he goes into the encounter as favorite for Series MVP, independent of the forces arrayed against him. However, if one seeks to take a little edge off of his potential impact, one could do worse than what's assembled here in Philly.

Next, I'd like to question the premise that 3rd-line is some sort of obvious edge for the Terriers. The Orillia line is Panarin-Weiland-Provost, and the Phantoms 3rd line is Madden/Zetterberg-Bergeron-Claude Lemieux. If playing an All-Star Game, or an all Forwards parlour-trick 3-on-3 overtime, we'd clearly favour the former grouping. However, this is Playoff Hockey, with tight whistles and tighter checking, where quarter is neither given nor sought. I think my crew will be fine here.

Phantoms have much better chemistry and good camaraderie as a lot of guys are familiar with one another. I’m sure they’d go through a wall for each other during this playoff run.

Will be tough to beat!

Yes- I expect our team WILL have great camderaderie and esprit de corps. We have Denneny-Highbor. We have Nový-Nedomansky. We have the Sedins together. We have back-to-front chemistry with Suchý to Nový/Nedomanský. When Madden and Claude Lemieux were playing together, Lemieux was in his lion-in-winter phase, and Madden waa a Calder candidate- but they have Championship experience together. When the game's over, we'll absolutely OWN the 4th Period. [Though I expect Darragh will be in-the-background, holding back a temptation to roll his eyes, while Denneny and Nighbor say to him that he should understand the boys wanting to blow off some steam every now-and-then.]

If we want to look at what chemistry can mean to an apparently unequal match-up, one need look no further than one of Hockey History's most famous events- The Summit Series. If assessing on sheer talent, there would be reason to think that it would be the 8-0 blow-out that many on this side of the world were predicting. Instead- it went to the very brink- and chemistry was precisely the reason it was such a near-run thing.

We sense a certain nervousness creeping into the Orillia Front-Office- as shown by such miscues as

Ted Harris is an excellent defensive 3rd pairing defenseman.

and

Harris >= McDonagh
McDonagh is making a career that will probably be better than Harris'. It's getting close, but he's not there yet.

Now, of course Ted Harris can be found on the ATD virtual golf-course. We should know, because we're the ones who gave him a little extra time on-the-links. I suppose this is a triviality- and Orillia is a squad suffused with many battle-tested elite players- and earned their top-seeding the old-fashioned way. But if that Front-Office unsteadiness creeps into other aspects of the organization, it could complicate their task.

We're the Bohemians & Boa Constrictors. We're going to leave it all out on-the-ice, and we're playing with house-money. We're going to let 'er rip, having absolutely nothing-to-lose. That has much to do with why we're actually pretty dangerous.

 

[Dreakmur]

Dreak definitely upped his advocacy game with his most recent post- but the double-post impels to to go back and address a couple of points from the earlier, not quite as well-reasoned post:I suppose I phrased this imprecisely- but for me, the operative word here was "else." In other words, having heard the preach, was there anybody (other than yourself) out there willing to give you an "amen!(?)"

I think Stapleton is just very under-rated. He has a really strong offensive resume, he's good defensively, and he's an excellent play-off performer.

Suchy is just such a mystery. I know lots of people like to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I would rather truly analyse his career. His lack of longevity really hurts his value in my books.

My reading of NHL statistics suggests that shooting percentage was lower in Plante's time than it was in Parent's era. Therefore, if we think that Save Percentage vs. League Average is relevant (and honestly, I don't- it's really unfair to Plante to use such a statistic), then that metric would redound to the benefit of Parent.

I would never be so disingenuous as to use a "Goals-Saved-Above-Average" statistical framing and use it to pimp Parent at the expense of Plante. Everyone knows that average goaltending in Plante's era was so much better than average goaltending in Parent's time. A much better way to perform this function would be to compare how the goalies performed against the other elite competition of their respective eras. The last time I took the Vernier Calipers to Plante, I created this post as evidence that you basically need Vernier Calipers to measure the difference between Prime Plante and Prime Dryden.

Plante's better than Dryden. Dryden's better than Parent. Prime Plante (all told) stops 1-2 pucks a season (tops!) more than Prime Dryden does. Playoff Plante stops (maybe!) one puck a series more than Playoff Parent.This is one of your more subtle points- and it contains a premise that I'd like to explore a bit further.

Plante led the league in save percentage five times. Parent managed that just once.

Plante is elite. Parent is average.

First of all, I appreciate that you've judged the coach suitable for the Philly squad. One of the little joys of drafting a defensively-oriented team is that it expands options on the coaching front. Having said that, I utterly reject the premise that old-time coaches are bound by their old-time tactics when assessing ATD. Most ordinary pro-coaches have an arsenal of tactics, accumulated over a century-plus of hockey history, and will choose the ones they believe most suitable for the relevant situations. If ordinary coaches can do this, then all-time ones surely would be able to do so, too. The idea that Gorman would be ossified in commitment to the tactics of his time is about as credible as saying that Conacher would be ossified in commitment to use period-specific equipment.

It's not that Gorman can't employ another tactic - he just won't be as good at it, and that would lower his value as a coach. It would be no different that selecting Jacques Lemaire and having him coach a run-and-gun offensive team.

Gorman's best contribution to coaching was his innovations on the forecheck. That's what makes him a good coach in an all-time sense. Take that away and he's no longer a good coach.

Next, I'd like to question the premise that 3rd-line is some sort of obvious edge for the Terriers. The Orillia line is Panarin-Weiland-Provost, and the Phantoms 3rd line is Madden/Zetterberg-Bergeron-Claude Lemieux. If playing an All-Star Game, or an all Forwards parlour-trick 3-on-3 overtime, we'd clearly favour the former grouping. However, this is Playoff Hockey, with tight whistles and tighter checking, where quarter is neither given nor sought. I think my crew will be fine here.

Orillia has defensively responsible players on each of the top 3 lines, and don't intend to play much match-up hockey. I built the Orillia squad to be on the attack. We'll initiate, and let the opponent react.

In the event that Orillia does need to assemble a defensive unit, Tommy Phillips will take Panarin's place on that line. That won't happen very often.

With a both a coaching advantage and home ice, I am pretty confident Orillia will end up with mostly favourable match-ups.

We sense a certain nervousness creeping into the Orillia Front-Office- as shown by such miscues as
and
Now, of course Ted Harris can be found on the ATD virtual golf-course. We should know, because we're the ones who gave him a little extra time on-the-links. I suppose this is a triviality- and Orillia is a squad suffused with many battle-tested elite players- and earned their top-seeding the old-fashioned way. But if that Front-Office unsteadiness creeps into other aspects of the organization, it could complicate their task.

Harris is an excellent third pairing defenseman. McDonagh is a good third pairing defenseman. I said McDonagh would soon pass Harris, but hasn't yet, so Harris is better. What is inconsistent about that?

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Lynn Patrick - First Team All-Star (1942)
Second Team All-Star (1941)

Hart voting - 3rd(1942)
Center All-Star voting - 7th(1936)
Left Wing All-Star voting - 1st(1942), 2nd(1943), 4th(1938), 4th(1941)

Offensive Accomplishments:
Points - 2nd(1941), 2nd(1942), 4th(1943), 14th(1938), 20th(1940)
Goals - 1st(1942), 5th(1941), 14th(1943), 16th(1940), 18th(1938)
Assists - 6th(1941), 7th(1943), 12th(1939), 14th(1938), 17th(1942)

Dreak, idk if this post is 2nd round worthy, but I like your 4th line LW/C combos. Brian Sutter is your 4th LW. Your 4th C Camille "The Eel" Henry is 5th in shooting % behind only Mike Bossy and 3 others guys who played in the high scoring 70s and 80s and reserve LW/C Lynn Patrick brings grit and toughness if needed at center plus he's a great LW coming off the bench! I doubt every other team has an equal reserve LW/C.