ATD2021 Foster Hewitt Divisional Semi-Final: Orillia Terriers vs. Philadelphia Phantoms

[BenchBrawl]

Lester Patrick

Tommy Phillips - Wayne Gretzky "C" - Charlie Conacher "A"
Brad Marchand - Marty Barry - Bobby Bauer
Artemi Panarin - Cooney Weiland - Claude Provost
Brian Sutter - Camille Henry - Floyd Curry

Scott Niedermayer "A" - Drew Doughty
Pat Stapleton - Bill White
Ryan McDonagh - P.K. Subban

Jacques Plante
Henrik Lundqvist

Spares: Lynn Patrick, Jack Marshall, Carol Vadnais

PP1: Conacher-Gretzky-Henry-Subban-Stapleton
PP2: Marchand-Barry-Bauer-Doughty-Niedermayer

PK1: Weiland-Provost-McDonagh-White
PK2: Phillips-Curry-Niedermayer-Doughty
PK3: Marchand-Gretzky


vs.


Philadelphia Phantoms (ChiTownPhilly)

Home Rink: Philadelphia Spectrum
Coach: Tommy Gorman
Captain: Denis Potvin
Alternates: Henrik Zetterberg, Patrice Bergeron

Cy Denneny - Frank Nighbor -Hooley Smith
Henrik Zetterberg -Milan Novy - Vaclav Nedomansky
John Madden -Patrice Bergeron - Claude Lemieux
Daniel Sedin - Henrik Sedin -Odie Cleghorn

Denis Potvin -Shea Weber
Alex Ragulin - Jan Suchy
Mark Giordano-Terry Harper

Bernie Parent
Vladimir Dzurilla

Extras:
Vsevolod Bobrov
Jack Darragh
Yury Lyapkin

​

Click to read more...

 

[Dreakmur]

All offense versus all defence. Should be interesting.

Good luck Philly.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

All offense versus all defence. Should be interesting.

Good luck Philly.

Congratulations to you for your First Place finish and home-ice advantage. I, too, expect an interesting series.

First, the Huskies- now, the Terriers. Another dogfight is assured. Good luck, Dreak.

Edit: I've noted, belatedly, that the initial post once again doesn't contain my Special Teams. Therefore, for the sake of full disclosure, here follows the Special Teams set-ups for The Phantoms:

PK-1: Madden-Bergeron-Giordano-Weber
PK1a: Nighbor-H. Smith-Potvin-Harper
Spare PKers: Zetterberg, Suchý, Ragulin

PP1: Denneny (Net Front)- Nighbor (Facilitator/Office Manager)- H. Smith (Half-Wall)
Suchý (QB)- Potvin (Trigger)

PP2: C. Lemieux (L Net-Front to Corners)- H. Sedin (Top of Circle to Slot)- D. Sedin (R Net-Front to Top of Circle) >> Weber (L Point)- Nový (R Point)
Spare PPers: Zetterberg, Nedomanský, O. Cleghorn, Giordano

I observe with some satisfaction that all of these Special Teams Units have an additional Centre-capable alternative for taking draws- and three of the four of them have a LH & RH option for that function.

 

[Dreakmur]

I suppose I'll start with a few comparisons to start.

My re-calculated benchmarks for the split-league era is complete, and both Denneny and Nighbor take significant jumps compared to where they were in my assassination breakdown that had this as one of the weakest offensive top lines. With the adjustments, they end up as the low end of the mid-pack.

Frank Nighbor ends with a score of 88.1. That puts his scoring ability in the same category as guys like Ron Francis, Peter Stastny, and Jean Ratelle. I think that make more sense then where I had him before.

Cy Denneny ends up with a score of exactly 100. That makes him one of the elite scoring LWs, which is where I had him already.

Offensively, the Phantoms' line combines for a total of 266.1.

The Orillia unit leads the draft, and it's a wide margin. Gretzky and Conacher alone combine for a total of 262. I've given Phillips a conservative score of 75, which drives the line up to a total of 337.

Orillia has a significant edge in offensive play on these top units.


Nighbor is among the super-elite defensive forwards. I'm sure Philadelphia will argue that Nighbor can significantly slow down Gretzky. I'll obviously argue the opposite. We can get into those issues later.

Even with the advantage on these top lines, I think Orillia's depth scoring is going to cause further issues, especially on the third lines, there Philadelphia gets almost nothing.

 

[Dreakmur]

Second Lines:
Marchand-Barry-Bauer = 254.7
Zetterberg-Novy-Nedomasnky = 235.0

Third Lines:
Panarin-Weiland-Provost = 244.6
Madden-Bergeron-Lemieux = 176.4 (even before accounting for Madden being unable to play LW)

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

Second Lines:
Marchand-Barry-Bauer = 254.7
Zetterberg-Novy-Nedomasnky = 235.0

Third Lines:
Panarin-Weiland-Provost = 244.6
Madden-Bergeron-Lemieux = 176.4 (even before accounting for Madden being unable to play LW)

I'll set aside the idea of citing 7-year Regular Season VsX, and the matter of taking conjectural suppositions such as the offensive rate-figures for Nový & Nedomanský and putting them into an equation that purports to calculate to within a decimal-point. I'll also add that Jaromir Jágr is currently unavailable for comment on the contention that John Madden is unable to play Left Wing.

Instead, I'd like to compare players position-by-position, and juxtapose them in a manner where they're most likely to meet on-the-ice. A careful viewing of each grouping will show that this figures to be a very, very close series-

Orillia LWs vs. Philadelphia RDs
T. Phillips/Marchand/Panarin/Bri. Sutter vs. S. Weber/Suchý/T. Harper
I really don't see this as anything worse than a wash. Shea Weber is the stoutest player of the seven- and will be spending the most time on-the-ice. Marchand's burgeoning reputation as a high-skill superpest and Panarin's waxing career are not to be minimized, but neither is Jan Suchý's formidable skill-set.

Orillia Centers vs. Philadelphia Centers
Gretzky/M. Barry/C. Weiland/C. Henry vs. Nighbor/Nový/Bergeron/H. Sedin
This grouping contains Gretzky- and ANY grouping including Gretzky has to be presumed to hold pride-of-place. I will not entertain any nonsense talk of stopping Gretzky- nor will it even be clear that he can be "slowed down considerably." The goal, of course, is to mitigate his impact somewhat- and Nighbor & Bergeron bring defensive credentials as good as any for such a mission. I'll acknowledge an advantage to our rival here- but with one upper-Division Hall-of-Famer and two future inductees of our own here, Philly's not to be dismissed outright.

Orillia RWs vs. Philadelphia LDs
C. Conacher/B. Bauer/Provost/Curry vs. D. Potvin/Ragulin/Giordano
To me, this is the most interesting side-by-side comparison of all. Few bigger fans of Conacher than I- and I've said many times that I think his negative defensive reputation is overblown. That said, he comes up second-best in contrast to Denis Potvin- and if you think as little of Bauer's defense as I do, and/or as little of Conacher's defense as a lot of people do, are these the guys you'd want to try to slow down Potvin's (or even Giordano's) break-outs? I'll call this slight edge Phantoms- only because I admire Conacher more than most.

Philadelphia LWs vs. Orillia RDs
C. Denneny/Zetterberg/Madden/D. Sedin vs. Doughty/White/Subban
Denneny is an upper-division Hall-of-Famer... the only one in this grouping. Doughty will be a mainstream Hall-of-Famer, and brings some Playoff cred. Zetterberg will be a Hall-of-Famer, and has no small amount of Playoff cred, himself. White, Subban? Not Hall-of-Famers. Madden, of course, is there for his defense- and Daniel Sedin will eventually get his plaque in Toronto. Here the edge belongs to Philadelphia. It's not really close.

Philadelphia RWs vs. Orillia LDs
Hooley Smith/Nedomanský/C. Lemieux/O. Cleghorn vs. Niedermayer/Stapleton/McDonagh
When the First Units are on-the-ice, the Niedermayer/Hooley Smith match-up will be one that astute fans will want to watch. Niedermayer's a heady defenceman who provides transition offense. Smith's a heady forward who brings defensive acumen. Both are solid Hall-of-Famers. I'll cede a slight edge to Niedermayer on account of his extra usage. Nedomanský is a worthy Hall-of-Famer- and Claude Lemieux is a Playoff Beast. Whitey Stapleton is neither of those. Odie Cleghorn is there to give snarl to the Sedin line, and McDonagh is there to give back-line succour to the Terriers' PK1. I'd say the Nedomanský talent edge and Claude Lemieux Playoff edge over Stapleton more than makes up for any slight plus for Niedermayer over Hooley Smith. This is sufficient for me to frame this as slight edge Philly.

Philadelphia Starting Goaltending [Bernie Parent]
vs. Orillia Starting Goaltending [Jacques Plante]
Plante holds an edge by any honest reckoning. Having said that, Parent's Playoff Chops keep Philadelphia from getting lapped in this comparison. Fun fact- Bernie Parent's record in the Second Round of the Playoffs is really pretty good. [I'm engaging in a little intentional understatement here.]

Put it all together, and you get-
Measured Edge Orillia:
Centers (because Gretzky)
Goaltending

Measured Edge Philadelphia:
Philadelphia LWs>Orillia RDs

Slight Edge Philadelphia:
Philadelphia RWs>Orillia LDs
Philadelphia LDs>Orillia RWs

Possible Wash:
Orillia LWs=Philadelphia RDs

I bring this to light because, after an overview of all of the areas where the on-ice battles will occur, it's going to be really, really tight. Extraordinarily close. In this match-up of Terrier-Dogs versus UnderDogs, we really should take a look at Playoff C.V.s, provable chemistry, Special Teams, depth, snarl, and grit before we make a definitive judgement as to how this series will turn out.

 

[Dreakmur]

Sweet, looks like we’re going to have a discussion!

Some good points made, some I disagree with. I’ll unpack it in pieces as I have time today, and so it’s easier to discuss each of the points.

 

[Dreakmur]

Orillia LWs vs. Philadelphia RDs
T. Phillips/Marchand/Panarin/Bri. Sutter vs. S. Weber/Suchý/T. Harper
I really don't see this as anything worse than a wash. Shea Weber is the stoutest player of the seven- and will be spending the most time on-the-ice. Marchand's burgeoning reputation as a high-skill superpest and Panarin's waxing career are not to be minimized, but neither is Jan Suchý's formidable skill-set.

I find this a really odd way to evaluate two teams. These battles don't happen in a vaccuum, so these encounters will rarely happen in 1 on 1 circumstances. Regardless, I'll go through these, and see what we can discuss.

I think our biggest disagreement is going to be on Jan Suchy. I would agree he had an excellent peak, but he seriously lacks longevity to back it up. How good exactly was his peak? If we can determine that, then we can evaluate how a lack of longevity impacts that.

With these non-NHLers, it's often tricky to figure out exactly how good they were. Maybe I'm out to lunch, but I look at each of them and try to create a world-wide ranking, and build them a Norris record from that.

1969, Suchy led all Czech players in scoring. Bobby Orr had yet to explode, so I think Suchy probably deserves the world-wide Norris this year.
1968, Suchy led Czech defensemen in scoring. Based on what the NHL looked like that year, that's probably good for about 5th or 6th.
1970, Suchy led Czech defensemen in scoring. The margin was closer, so this is likely a 9th or 10th
1972, Suchy was a distant second in scoring among defensemen. That's not good enough for a top-10, but likely good enough for a top-20.

Did he do anything significant beyond those years? If not, he has a world-wide Norris record of 1st, 5th, 10th, 15th. Based on that, he looks to be a lot close to a guy like PK Subban than a legit top-4 defenseman in this draft.

I like Weber - he's a decent #2 here, though he's a lot more valuable on special teams than at even strength. He's also much better at defending in his zone than he is in open ice, and susceptible to getting beat on the rush by fast forwards, which I have in abundance.

Ted Harris is an excellent defensive 3rd pairing defenseman.

As for Orillia's wingers, Phillips is tough to evaluate on his own. His scoring is almost impossible to truly evaluate, which is why I tend to be conservative with him. Also, he's easily the line's 3rd wheel, so he won't be relied on to create offense, but more to be a complimentary player.

Brad Marchand has become a borderline first line winger in a draft this size. His well-rounded and energetic game has always been useful, but lately, he has shown an ability to carry his line offensively.

Even right now, Panarin is adding significance to his resume. He's 3rd in PPG this season, ahead of Patrick Kane. With this season included, his even strength scoring is amazing, with a 7 season score of 83.9. He's not great defensively, but he does play a reliable defensive game.

 

[Dreakmur]

IOrillia RWs vs. Philadelphia LDs
C. Conacher/B. Bauer/Provost/Curry vs. D. Potvin/Ragulin/Giordano
To me, this is the most interesting side-by-side comparison of all. Few bigger fans of Conacher than I- and I've said many times that I think his negative defensive reputation is overblown. That said, he comes up second-best in contrast to Denis Potvin- and if you think as little of Bauer's defense as I do, and/or as little of Conacher's defense as a lot of people do, are these the guys you'd want to try to slow down Potvin's (or even Giordano's) break-outs? I'll call this slight edge Phantoms- only because I admire Conacher more than most.

Neither Conacher nor Bauer are players I would choose to defend against Denis Potvin, but that's not what makes them effective. In situations where that is important, however, Provost and Curry would certainly go out first, and both are well equipped for that task if needed. Depending on how your team gets deployed, Provost may very well get that assignment - Potvin and Denneny being the only two offensive threats worthy of any match-up attention.

Hockey is a chaotic game - offense can change to defence in an instant, and vica versa. It's not about who would beat who in one very narrow selected situation. It's about who beats who in an overall game.

Maybe more importantly, none of these players operate independently. Denis Potvin is a better player than Charlie Conacher. In a game of 1-on-1, he would win. While hockey tends to break down into a huge string of battles, not many are solely 1-on-1s, and they often happen between a huge variety of players.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

I find this a really odd way to evaluate two teams. These battles don't happen in a vaccuum, so these encounters will rarely happen in 1 on 1 circumstances. Regardless, I'll go through these, and see what we can discuss.

Actually, I don't find it that odd, at all. Also (as experienced readers of my input may recall) I've analysed teams in this manner, as a third party, on previous occasions. [So it's not like this is something I cooked up just for this encounter.] The way I look at it is- in cases where there isn't a huge talent-gap, why WOULDN'T you want to look at the match-ups by quadrant, to see how the players would appear in contrast to the opponents whom they'd be most likely to encounter.

If anything, I'd say it's more organic to apply that perspective than to say something like "Team A's 2nd Line 7-year Regular Season VsX is 30 points higher than the parallel figure for Team B- so Playoff Advantage Team A."

I think our biggest disagreement is going to be on Jan Suchy. I would agree he had an excellent peak, but he seriously lacks longevity to back it up.

I have freely admitted that I have a bizarre outlier opinion on Jan Suchý. Still, I'm NOT trying to sell my bizarre outlier opinion- I'm trying to sell Suchý as a worthy top-4 Defenceman in a 24-team league. I believe I've certainly set a reasonable sale-price on Suchý.

I selected Suchý at position 154. In the previous half-dozen drafts, his average draft position (rounded to the nearest) is 150. In the previous four ATDs, he's been on someone's first-pairing. At least one of those teams was a Division-winner. In the current conclave re: the HoH Top-200 project, Suchý landed in spot 155, ahead of Shea Weber and not too far behind Ebbie Goodfellow. As a second-pairing D, he's closer to "luxury casting" than "casting stretch."

If I'm at peace with people judging Suchý as reasonably close to Ebbie Goodfellow, and you're trying to assert that Suchý is in-the-neighborhood of Subban, then I'm comfortable with that sound-bite fresh in-the-ears of the jury as they prepare for deliberations.

A couple of quotes pertaining to Suchý:

I probably listed Jan Suchy higher than anyone else. Thing is there isn't really much to say in terms of statistics and awards that hasn't been said numerous times. He dominated the European amateur scene during the late 60s and early 70s. The reason I hold him very highly is from what I hear from people who were around back then. Jan Suchy seems to have been idolized nearly as much in Sweden as in Czechoslovakia. Ask people from back then and they'll say Jan Suchy was something else. Never before seen (at least on this side of the pond.) offensive output and skating ability. Tenacious defense and the sacrifice of his body to cover and block shots. I can't recall having seen any list of Czech hockey players that doesn't list Suchy as their top defenseman.

A couple of years ago I spoke to a personal acquaintance of mine who played on the 1968 Swedish Olympic team. He was convinced that he was playing against one of the best players of all time. He claims that he has still not seen a European hockey player who had such poise, elegance and vision on the ice.

Call it a hunch, or gut feeling. But I think that Jan Suchy's game would translate to virtually any era of hockey, anywhere. His career never got back on the same illustrious track after the car crash that he caused. Who knows what might have transcribed had his car, and consequently his career, taken a different path in 1971. I reckon we'd be talking of him in the same sense as we do Fetisov or Lidström. His career may not live up to the title of 'Europe's Bobby Orr'. But the reason for the title is not his career, but his game. I don't often reside to hunches, but in this case, I am going to list Jan Suchy highly. A truly unique player. Now he doesn't deserve a high rank for what he could have been, he deserves to be considered because of what he was.

I'm glad Jan Suchý finally made it. Most likely the best non-NHL Euro left. Currently, I only have Hod Stuart above him.

Things in favor of Suchý:

- First thing that comes to mind is... Firsov. The 60 or 70 spots of gap between Firsov and Suchý on the list is crazy and has no bearing in reality of how well they played and how they were viewed by contemporaries. A consensus Firsov>Suchý seems to be set on these parts, which is fine... I also have Firsov ahead but only thanks to Firsov's reliability/discipline. If only on-ice impact were to be considered I'd personally picked Suchý (just like probably most people during 1968-1971 timeframe).

- Second thing. Suchý was the embodiment of "big game player". His peak or prime easily outclassed whatever 4 best years of Vasiliev's career were (or Kasatonov's... or Petrov's). Again, it's OK to rank Vasiliev ahead of Suchý due to length of prime issue... But something needs to be said about Suchý's ability to always up his game in crucial moments regardless of the level he played.

- Third thing. If you put stock on things like "star power", "fame", "artistry", you'll also have to rank Suchý very highly this vote.

 

[Dreakmur]

Actually, I don't find it that odd, at all. Also (as experienced readers of my input may recall) I've analysed teams in this manner, as a third party, on previous occasions. [So it's not like this is something I cooked up just for this encounter.] The way I look at it is- in cases where there isn't a huge talent-gap, why WOULDN'T you want to look at the match-ups by quadrant, to see how the players would appear in contrast to the opponents whom they'd be most likely to encounter.

If your team is actually going the play the game in quadrants, you’re in big trouble.

Is Conacher likely going down against your left defensemen? Yes. Which one matters. Discussion about Conacher vs Potvin would be useful if that’s a matchup you want.

Also, as I said, it won’t be just Potvin and Conacher in a 1 on 1. Conacher and Gretzky would be coming down that side against Potvin and whoever else your system places in that defensive position.

Perhaps it was more your analysis that struck me, rather than the actual style.

If anything, I'd say it's more organic to apply that perspective than the vs.x system

Discussion about where each team has an advantage is pretty standard. It’s an obvious place to start. Maybe you don't like the vs.X system, but it's the best thing we have to measure offensive production. Yeah, situation matters, context comes after math.

I look at the rosters and see that Philadelphia has a better 1st pairing and 4th line. Orillia has a better 1st line, 2nd line, 3rd line, goalie and coach.

2nd and 3rd pairs are pretty close.

What matchups might swing the advantages one way or another?

What styles of play would work best against each team, and can the opponent implement that strategy effectively?

I have freely admitted that I have a bizarre outlier opinion on Jan Suchý. Still, I'm NOT trying to sell my bizarre outlier opinion- I'm trying to sell Suchý as a worthy top-4 Defenceman in a 24-team league. I believe I've certainly set a reasonable sale-price on Suchý.

I selected Suchý at position 154. In the previous half-dozen drafts, his average draft position (rounded to the nearest) is 150. In the previous four ATDs, he's been on someone's first-pairing. At least one of those teams was a Division-winner. In the current conclave re: the HoH Top-200 project, Suchý landed in spot 155, ahead of Shea Weber and not too far behind Ebbie Goodfellow. As a second-pairing D, he's closer to "luxury casting" than "casting stretch."

I’m all for being sold on players. Telling me where he was drafted in the past does nothing to convince anyone.

We know he had 1 elite offensive season, 2 good offensive seasons, and 1 decent offensive season. What else did he do?

Was he good defensively? Did he bring anything outside of scoring?

Is his peak really better than a 3-time Norris Finalist?

If I'm at peace with people judging Suchý as reasonably close to Ebbie Goodfellow, and you're trying to assert that Suchý is in-the-neighborhood of Subban, then I'm comfortable with that sound-bite fresh in-the-ears of the jury as they prepare for deliberations.

Break down my analysis and explain why it’s wrong.

 

[VanIslander]

Chemistry is underrated.

Denneny with Nighbor,
Novy with Nedomansky,
Sedin with Sedin...

Dang, that's good.

 

[Dreakmur]

On the blueline, Denis Potvin is a considerable advantage for the Phantoms. After that, it's almost a wash.

Potvin >> Doughty
Doughty is probably on the edge of being a legit #1 defenseman here. Potvin is one of the elite. Both guys are excellent in the play-offs.

Funny that Doughty's draft day comparison was Denis Potvin. Strange that it's the offensive side of the game that Doughty has fallen most short in that comparison. Who would have guessed that in 2008?

Weber =< Neidermayer
In the regular season, I have these guys just about even. Neidermayer gets a slight edge here by being an excellent play-off performer, which is something Weber hasn't been.

Suchy =< Stapleton
Offensively, I think they're pretty comparable. Stapleton was 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 4th, 6th, and 9th in scoring among defensemen, and he did that without the benefit of a dominant powerplay. Suchy had some good offensive seasons, but were they equal to top-4s in the NHL?

Stapleton was also a consistent clever defensive player. He played well positionally and excelled at stripping the puck without engaging physically. He appears to have been used as one half of Canada's shut-down pairing in the 1972 Summit Series, where he didn't score much, but played top-end defensive hockey. Was Suchy good defensively?

Stapleton was also an excellent play-off performer. Without playing for a dynasty team, he put up scoring finishes of 1st, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, and 8th.

Ragulin < White
Both defensive defensemen who could make a reliable first pass. Ragulin played a much more physical style, while White played a finesse version of defence.

White was pretty widely viewed as the best defensive defenseman in the world for a while. That's not something Ragulin ever matched.

Giordano = Subban
Subban is an impact player.... both good and bad. He made big plays and for a lot of his career he made big mistakes. Giordano doesn't match Subban's beak, but he's been a lot more consistent.

Harris >= McDonagh
McDonagh is making a career that will probably be better than Harris'. It's getting close, but he's not there yet.

 

[nabby12]

Chemistry is underrated.

Denneny with Nighbor,
Novy with Nedomansky,
Sedin with Sedin...

Dang, that's good.

I noticed that too. Phantoms have much better chemistry and good camaraderie as a lot of guys are familiar with one another. I’m sure they’d go through a wall for each other during this playoff run.

Will be tough to beat!

 

[Habsfan18]

I noticed that too. Phantoms have much better chemistry and good camaraderie as a lot of guys are familiar with one another. I’m sure they’d go through a wall for each other during this playoff run.

Will be tough to beat!

But VsX, nabby!

VsX!!!!!

 

[Dreakmur]

I noticed that too. Phantoms have much better chemistry and good camaraderie as a lot of guys are familiar with one another. I’m sure they’d go through a wall for each other during this playoff run.

Will be tough to beat!

Chemistry means those guys will play exactly as they did when they played together. Why would it mean anything extra?

Sure, questionable chemistry will cause players to be less effectively, but which players on these rosters will have poor chemistry?

 

[Dreakmur]

But VsX, nabby!

VsX!!!!!

If you have a better way to measure offensive production, please share it. I’m sure we would all like to see it.

 

[Habsfan18]

If you have a better way to measure offensive production, please share it. I’m sure we would all like to see it.

I don’t need to, when you seem to have found the be-all end-all stat to measure how good these teams would be. Like I’ve stated in the past, we should just skip the voting process altogether and use your fancy stat to determine the winner. Highest VsX wins!

 

[Dreakmur]

I don’t need to, when you seem to have found the be-all end-all stat to measure how good these teams would be. Like I’ve stated in the past, we should just skip the voting process altogether and use your fancy stat to determine the winner. Highest VsX wins!

Highest vs.X has the most proven offensive production.

That doesn't mean they work best together. That doesn't mean they are the better players. That doesn't mean they are the better team. It just means they have the best offensive resumes.

 

[rmartin65]

I don’t need to, when you seem to have found the be-all end-all stat to measure how good these teams would be. Like I’ve stated in the past, we should just skip the voting process altogether and use your fancy stat to determine the winner. Highest VsX wins!

While I agree that VsX may be overused-

1) To the best of my knowledge, it is the best tool we have to compare offense and is thus worth noting (I am not saying it is perfect, however),

and

2) I haven't run the numbers, but I doubt that past ATD champs were always the highest VsX clubs.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I think you're both raising an important point. overpass has done the same in one of the other threads.

VsX is the best system we have to compare offensive players across eras but we have to be careful not to be too reductionist and to consider a lot more factors. Even when talking strictly about offense, the context in which players produced their VsX scores is important in understanding their value as players. The fit they have on their lines here (and teams here) in comparison to their real life situations could affect those scores positively or negatively.

The role they play here in comparison to real life should have a huge impact. For example, people often stack 3rd lines with players that traditionally were second liners in the ATD. Their scores look great for a 3rd line here but they would not produce those scores in limited icetime and without PP time in their role here. (Although more depth is always good in case of injury etc). This has led to the death of pure 3rd line checkers for the most part and many of us have picked up players that can pot some ES points on those 3rd and 4th lines more than in the past.

Then of course you have to consider all the other skills players bring (physical and defensive) and intangibles. Matchups. Coaching.

We have a lot to consider!

 

[Habsfan18]

Highest vs.X has the most proven offensive production.

That doesn't mean they work best together. That doesn't mean they are the better players. That doesn't mean they are the better team. It just means they have the best offensive resumes.

Dreak, I can respect the fact that you created the VsX formula. I appreciate the work that was involved in that, and I can see why something like that can have important role in determining offensive production in players.

But as I’ve stated multiple times in the past, when the ATD starts becoming nothing but an exercise in comparing overall VsX scores to determine winners, it completely sucks the energy out of it and turns what should be a fun hockey history game into a predictable math game year after year.

I mean, and I’m not just speaking for myself here, but you can see why it would be frustrating for someone to put a lot of hard work into building what they feel is a good team..only for it to be crapped on and discredited simply because the VsX formula apparently tells us the team wouldn’t be good based on the overall score?

Does it mean that every team should just start using nothing but VsX and try to “out-VSX” everyone else in the division? What’s the fun in that year after year?

 

[Dreakmur]

Dreak, I can respect the fact that you created the VsX formula. I appreciate the work that was involved in that, and I can see why something like that can have important role in determining offensive production in players.

I had nothing to do with it. It is a formula that was batted around and vetted for years. There are threads about it.

But as I’ve stated multiple times in the past, when the ATD starts becoming nothing but an exercise in comparing overall VsX scores to determine winners, it completely sucks the energy out of it and turns what should be a fun hockey history game into a predictable math game year after year.

That's not at all what goes on. You're going way overboard here.

I mean, and I’m not just speaking for myself here, but you can see why it would be frustrating for someone to put a lot of hard work into building what they feel is a good team..only for it to be crapped on and discredited simply because the VsX formula apparently tells us the team wouldn’t be good based on the overall score?

You can build a good team without high vs.X scores. All it measures is offense.

Does it mean that every team should just start using nothing but VsX and try to “out-VSX” everyone else in the division? What’s the fun in that year after year?

Everyone should use it to measure offensive production.

 

[Dreakmur]

I think you're both raising an important point. overpass has done the same in one of the other threads.

VsX is the best system we have to compare offensive players across eras but we have to be careful not to be too reductionist and to consider a lot more factors. Even when talking strictly about offense, the context in which players produced their VsX scores is important in understanding their value as players. The fit they have on their lines here (and teams here) in comparison to their real life situations could affect those scores positively or negatively.

The role they play here in comparison to real life should have a huge impact. For example, people often stack 3rd lines with players that traditionally were second liners in the ATD. Their scores look great for a 3rd line here but they would not produce those scores in limited icetime and without PP time in their role here. (Although more depth is always good in case of injury etc). This has led to the death of pure 3rd line checkers for the most part and many of us have picked up players that can pot some ES points on those 3rd and 4th lines more than in the past.

Then of course you have to consider all the other skills players bring (physical and defensive) and intangibles. Matchups. Coaching.

We have a lot to consider!

As I've said in the past, Vs.X is where I start, and I expand on the analysis from there. It's a lot easier to start from an easily measurable point.

 

[Dreakmur]

Jacques Plante Effect:
Obviously, Orillia has a significant advantage in puck-stopping, but that's not the only way Jacques Plante will impact this series.

Tommy Gorman's biggest strength as a coach was his early development and implementation of what eventually evolved into modern forechecking. As a coach, that's what he does best. If he's not going to rely on a forechecking system to drive his team's offense, then I'm not sure how effective he would be. Based on their coach, Ottawa will be employing a strong dump and chase system, which can be hard on defensemen.

That's where Plante plays a big role. As the pioneer of puck-handling goalies, he should be viewed as one of the elite goalies in that regard. His ability to play the puck is going to take a huge bite out of Philly's forechecking plans, which is Gorman's primary contribution to his teams.