ATD2011 Sam Pollock Semi: (2) Gwinnett Gladiators vs. (3) Chicago Steelers

[Hawkey Town 18]

What the series comes down to is basically this:

- Chicago has a small advantage on the first unit. The defensive pairings are similar in quality, and Gwinnett has the best forward in the series in Frank Boucher, while Chicago has the next two best in Ovechkin / Fedorov. Gwinnett also has an outstanding clutch all-around performer on Boucher's wing in Foyston. The last matchup of Alfredsson vs. Guerin is a lot closer than Chicago would like it to be.

- Gwinnett has an enormous advantage on the second unit. Paul Coffey is far and away the best player on either second unit, and Smith and Fredrickson are the second and third best, also by margins. Burrows is a better #4 than Tsygankov, being a good deal more proven defensively. Heatley vs. Thompson is the single matchup of the units where Chicago can claim rough equality. This matchup is murder for the Steelers, who do not have the goods to handle the players coming at them.

- Gwinnett has the better special teams units, with a substantial advantage on the powerplay and a smaller one on the penalty kill.

- Third lines are roughly equal.

- Gwinnett has a quite strong third pairing in Tinordi / Timonen, and while Bubla is a good #5, Gregg is a career depth defenseman who is among the worst blueliners in the draft.

- 4th lines are a wash / it doesn't much matter.

Basically, the only significant advantage Chicago has is the Ovechkin vs. Foyston comparison, and that advantage narrows a good deal in the postseason, where Foyston was the dominant scorer of his generation. Gwinnett's three huge comparative advantages on the second unit (Coffey vs. Talbot, Fredrickson vs Roenick, Smith vs Recchi) are sufficient to simply dominate, and there's nothing Chicago can do about it.

Not enough time to go through all of it, but a few quick hits...

How do you not think Vasiliev - Savard is a better Dpair than Laperriere - G. Boucher?

Again, how is our 1st PK unit not better than yours? Fedorov is the best PKing forward on either unit and Savard - Vasiliev are one of the best Dpairs defensively in the ATD.

I do not accept that the 3rd lines are roughly equal, the wingers are basically a wash, but McKenney has a fairly large advantage on Steen, being better both defensively and offensively (It should also be noted that Steen was hardly ever going up against the opponents' best checkers as Hawerchuck was the focus).

I think the 3rd pairs are a wash. Bubla is the best of the 4 and Gregg the worst, but not as bad as you make him out to be. You listed 4-5 guys that he sometimes played behind, but they were all ATD players. As the big defensive defenseman to compliment an above average partner, he's just fine.

You conveniently forgot to mention that Chicago has the Coaching edge (Tarasov/F. Patrick > Hart) and the Goaltending edge (Fuhr > Barrasso)

 

[Sturminator]

Oh really? I am sure we can. Tarasov can simply use our first line against your second. You'd be lucky to throw a shot at Fuhr when you play against Savard-Vasiliev.

Heh...ok.

 

[Sturminator]

How do you not think Vasiliev - Savard is a better Dpair than Laperriere - G. Boucher?

You haven't been paying attention.

Again, how is our 1st PK unit not better than yours? Fedorov is the best PKing forward on either unit and Savard - Vasiliev are one of the best Dpairs defensively in the ATD.

Umm...what? Fedorov is definitely not as good a PKer as Rolston, and probably not as good as Smith, either.

I do not accept that the 3rd lines are roughly equal, the wingers are basically a wash...

Uhhhh...Balon is quite a bit better than Lonsberry, and you know it.

I think the 3rd pairs are a wash. Bubla is the best of the 4 and Gregg the worst, but not as bad as you make him out to be. You listed 4-5 guys that he sometimes played behind, but they were all ATD players. As the big defensive defenseman to compliment an above average partner, he's just fine.

Bubla the best of the 4? Actually, I'm pretty sure Timonen is the best of the four overall.

You conveniently forgot to mention that Chicago has the Coaching edge (Tarasov/F. Patrick > Hart) and the Goaltending edge (Fuhr > Barrasso)

Both small.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

You haven't been paying attention.

At least do me the courtesy of quoting your old post

Umm...what? Fedorov is definitely not as good a PKer as Rolston, and probably not as good as Smith, either.

HOH section has 3 different coaches polls where Fedorov was voted 1st, 2nd, and 2nd as best PKer in the NHL. Not to mention his countless accolades as being one of or the top defensive forward in the NHL.

Uhhhh...Balon is quite a bit better than Lonsberry, and you know it.

If anything I would say Balon and MacLean are about equal with Paiement having a small edge on Lonsberry, but not close to the big edge McKenney has on Steen

Bubla the best of the 4? Actually, I'm pretty sure Timonen is the best of the four overall.

You are underrating Bubla, he was the top defenseman for quite a while on a very strong CSSR Team.

Both small.

This is just not true.

 

[overpass]

Cecil Hart coached around the time teams started using multiple lines, right? Was he ahead of the curve or behind in that regard? IMO some coaches probably started to match lines to some degree as soon as there were lines. It only makes sense. And with 3+ minute shifts it wouldn't be too hard. In any case, whatever Hart was doing, it worked.

Sturm, do you really think Rolston>Fedorov at anything? Based on the eye test, or what?

 

[Sturminator]

Sturm, do you really think Rolston>Fedorov at anything? Based on the eye test, or what?

Yeah. I'm no expert on the rest of Rolston's career, but I saw a lot of him in his Devils days because they were constantly in the playoffs. It's debatable, of course, but I've got a very high opinion of Rolston as a penalty killer. Fedorov wasn't made of pure win. Lots of lesser players had individual skills or sets of skills which surpassed his. In Rolston's case, he is one of the best players I've ever seen at creating turnovers at the point on the PK.

 

[jarek]

I would hesitate to say Smith is a better PKer than anybody. As far as I am aware, penalties didn't ACTUALLY exist during Smith's day. The players that went off were subbed.

 

[Rick Middleton]

Out of curiousity, when did the NHL adopt the current power play/penalty kill format?

 

[Sturminator]

I can ACTUALLY answer that question, Rick. I'll post the relevant material in the dirt thread. Suffice it to say, Smith played his whole career under a penalty system which was, if anything, harsher than the modern system.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Game 1: Gwinnett comes out firing on all cylinders. Frank Boucher has 3 assists, Coffey a goal and 2 assists. Foyston has 2 goals. Gwinnett wins 5-2.

Game 2. Serge Savard takes Boucher out of the game, but Paul Coffey runs rampant, assisting on goals by Fredrickson and Smith. Gwinnett wins 3-1.

Game 3. Sergei Fedorov makes it his personal mission to harrass Paul Coffey. Late in the 3rd period. Game tied at 2. Paul Coffey comes out from behind his own net, makes a nifty move to get by Feds and... Leaves the puck on Fedorov's stick! Fedorov feeds Ovechkin for an easy GWG with less than 2 minutes left. Chicago wins 2-1.

Game 4. Fedorov is a force at both ends, disrupting the transition game of Coffey and coming up with a 3 point night himself. Chicago wins 5-2.

This one is tied at 2 games apiece.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Since we just care about results and it's bedtime:

Gwinnett in 6. Stars:

1. Fedorov
2. Boucher
3. Coffey

 

[Sturminator]

Good series, Johnny and Reds. I thought very highly of your team and I believe voted them first in the division (our team excluded, of course). You guys built two very strong scoringlines, a tough first pairing and a good third line. The rest of the team was fairly average, in my opinion, but your strengths were sufficient that I think this team would have been a division winner in a couple of divisions in this draft.

Of your picks, I thought Ovechkin at #92 was your best move. He was probably the last truly game-breaking offensive player on the board, and I thought you got him at fine value there. I'd have loved it if he'd have fallen to pick #100. You guys drafted an extremely modern team, and given that constraint, did so very well. If there was one notable imbalance that tipped this series, it was probably the fact that Grant Fuhr and Tom Barrasso are near equals, but I was able to get Barrasso 250 picks later than you took Fuhr.

 

[Reds4Life]

This is quite disappointing to be honest, I thought we had the better playoff team. Anyway, good series and good luck in the next round, Sturminator and Rick Middleton, you've built a good team.

Our division was pretty good, one of the best in the draft IMHO.

 

[Dreakmur]

Good series, Johnny and Reds. I thought very highly of your team and I believe voted them first in the division (our team excluded, of course). You guys built two very strong scoringlines, a tough first pairing and a good third line. The rest of the team was fairly average, in my opinion, but your strengths were sufficient that I think this team would have been a division winner in a couple of divisions in this draft.

Of your picks, I thought Ovechkin at #92 was your best move. He was probably the last truly game-breaking offensive player on the board, and I thought you got him at fine value there. I'd have loved it if he'd have fallen to pick #100. You guys drafted an extremely modern team, and given that constraint, did so very well. If there was one notable imbalance that tipped this series, it was probably the fact that Grant Fuhr and Tom Barrasso are near equals, but I was able to get Barrasso 250 picks later than you took Fuhr.

Good sereis both of you. I enjoyed reading it, and look forward to facing Gwinnett next round.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Good series. If we had to lose, I'm glad it was at least to a strong, well built team. This was my first ATD, and I had a ton of fun. Big thanks to Reds4Life for bringing me on as a late addition Co-GM. Good luck to Gwinnett, I look forward to seeing how the rest of the ATD plays out.