ATD2011 Milt Dunnell Cup Final: Regina Pats vs. Ottawa Senators

Discussion in 'All Time Draft' started by Velociraptor, May 25, 2011.

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  1. Velociraptor

    Velociraptor Registered User

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    special teams (so far):

    PP1: Bucyk-Messier-Selanne-Clancy-Day
    PP2: Adams-Turgeon-Cashman-Neilson-Redden
    PK1: Messier-Nevin-Neilson-Day
    PK2: Bridgman-Oliver-Watson-Reise

    vs.

    Ottawa Senators

    [​IMG]

    Coach: Dick Irvin Sr
    Captain: Eddie Gerard
    Alternates: Jaromir Jagr and Bill Hay at home, Johnny Gottselig and Dan Bain on the road.

    Doug Bentley
    - Henrik Zetterberg - Jaromir Jagr
    Johnny Gottselig - Mike Modano - Claude Provost
    Rick Nash - Dan Bain - Paul Henderson
    Camille Henry - Bill "Red" Hay - Jim Peplinski
    Martin Straka, Art Gagne

    Eddie Gerard - Chris Pronger
    Gary Bergman - Joe Simpson
    Alexei Gusarov - Kjell Samuelsson
    Pekka Rautakillio, Adrian Aucoin

    Curtis Joseph
    Vladimir Dzurilla

    Even strength roles:

    2nd line gets tough matchups
    Other 3 lines are balanced.
    3rd line w/Nash goes against power RWs.
    Jagr gets double shifted/long shifts where possible in offensive zone.

    Pronger-Gerard get big minutes, all situations, tough matchups
    Bergman-Simpson get a more offensive role
    Gusarov-Samuelsson get a more defensive role

    Power play options

    Core forwards: Henry around the net, Jagr on the right half boards.
    Other forwards: Modano, Bain, Zetterberg, Nash, Bentley

    Point: Simpson, Pronger, Bentley, Gerard (mostly first 3, and Bentley may also play up front with Gerard replacing him)

    Modano - Henry - Jagr
    Bentley - Simpson

    Nash - Bain - Zetterberg
    Pronger - Gerard

    or

    Bentley - Henry - Jagr
    Pronger - Simpson

    Nash - Modano - Bain
    Gerard - Simpson/Zetterberg

    In any case the power play runs through Jagr, with Henry finding space around the net to score goals.

    Penalty kill units

    Provost - Zetterberg
    Pronger - Gerard

    Gottselig - Hay
    Gusarov - Samuelsson

    Nash - Modano
    Bergman

    ...with Jagr's line up next.
     
  2. VanIslander

    VanIslander Don't waste my time

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    Tony O vs. Cujo for the cup!

    Two fantastic coaches.

    An interesting match-up. Clutch performers on both sides.

    Pronger vs. Messier would be worth the price of admission. Strength and cheapshots galore.

    Here's hoping McCabe and Aucoin see no ice time.
     
  3. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    And the "need a good coach, not a good goalie" trend of the ATD continues!
     
  4. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    Looking forward to a good series, 70s. Is this the first time the Pats have made the finals?
     
  5. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    Ottawa Senators matchup focus

    Stop Bucyk-Messier-Selanne. Gerard-Pronger is the primary counter to them. Gottselig-Modano-Provost is the preferred forward matchup against them.
     
  6. Stoneberg

    Stoneberg Bored

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    I'm never taking a top 20 goalie again, that's for sure.
     
  7. markrander87

    markrander87 Registered User

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    Agreed.
     
  8. vecens24

    vecens24 Registered User

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    So do we think anyone got helped more by the 2010-11 season than seventies did with Selanne? He pretty much solidified himself as a top 100 player ever, giving seventies maybe the best first line in the draft(not that it wasn't beast before, just didn't really think about it til after the season ha.)
     
  9. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    Indeed it is.

    You know, I was wondering if anything was going to change in my life, but here I am, at work as usual. It turns out I still have to go - can you believe it?

    Hey! I have a top-20 goalie.

    The key, as with a lot of positions, is to just get good value on your goalie. I think both teams did. And by waiting on the goalie a few rounds longer, we were able to get stronger in other areas.

    Haha... in fairness, Selanne was already 2/3 through this outstanding season when I took him in February so his standing was pretty solidified. In retrospect, getting him in the 130s was an incredible steal, although at the time I only saw it as "good value".

    Every year since the lockout I keep expecting Selanne no drop off mid-season or to finally show his age and peter out... I admit, this was another one of those years. But he got even better towards the end. And saved his best for the playoffs. I'm really impressed with the guy.
     
  10. Stoneberg

    Stoneberg Bored

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    I knew I should have included "unless one falls to me at good value" because I had a feeling this may come.:laugh:

    Of course I agree Tony O is top 20, took me to the conference finals last year and I got hime even later than you did this time!

    It just seems that having a better goalie than your opponent is not as big a factor in the voting as few (like myself) think it is, so it'll be my own personal strategy to not bother taking one before round 10 anymore.
     
  11. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    Home Ice:

    I can't say 100% for sure which team has home ice advantage. here's what I do know:

    - Regina was 1st in their conference in regular season points.
    - Ottawa was 2nd in their conference in regular season points (behind NJ)
    - Regina's point total was apparently 137 out of a possible 192
    - Ottawa's point total, as compiled by me, was 121 out of a possible 155.

    I had 31 sets of votes and I used a 5-4-3-2-1 system to assign regular season point totals. So the average points per team was 93.

    Stoneberg used a system that was out of 6 points and had 32 sets of votes, hence the 192 max. You would think that this means I could just knock 32 points off all those totals to have an apples-to-apples comparison to the other conference. However, I'm not sure that math checks out either, because even with the highest point total in the conference, I would have had just 105 points and only one other would have 100. The top point totals in the other conference were 133.5, 121, 119.5, 114.5, 113, and 106, so it's really unlikely that 6 teams would have had more than the highest total on the other side.

    If anyone can try to make sense of this, please feel free.
     
  12. Hawkey Town 18

    Hawkey Town 18 Registered User

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    Something is off. Why not just release the results, eliminate same finishes, and compare?
     
  13. Dreakmur

    Dreakmur Registered User

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    I would just go by who earned the highest percentage of possible points. Regina earned 71% of their possible 192, and Ottawa earned 78% of their possible 155.
     
  14. BraveCanadian

    BraveCanadian Registered User

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    I'm with you - I value goaltenders (and coaching) quite a bit, myself.

    Apparently we were in the minority this time around, though.

    No one can make more of an overall difference in a team than those two.

    A good goalie can cover up a lot of mistakes and warts playing the whole 60 minutes and a good coach can raise a whole team up by getting players to buy into an appropriate gameplan that maximizes their strengths and minimizes their weaknesses.
     
  15. Hawkey Town 18

    Hawkey Town 18 Registered User

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    Was Stoneberg's system just 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or was it something else?
     
  16. VanIslander

    VanIslander Don't waste my time

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    If in the future a Presidents' Trophy ranking of divisional winners is done at regular season's end, then home ice advantage could be decided accordingly. For instance, if a number two seed from one division meets a number two seed from another division in the conference semifinals, final or cup final then whichever divisional number one seed had been ranked higher will determine home ice advantage. It assumes there isn't a great disparity between seeds within a division (ie. one division having a great number one and then a drop off to number two whereas another division having a close race for number one) but it's a better method than one of the NHL's ideas to have all-star games determine conference home ice advantage and no worse than trying to compare voting points between conferences (which itself assumes one conference isn't inherently more competitive than another).
     
  17. Hawkey Town 18

    Hawkey Town 18 Registered User

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    One of the main problems with goalies is that it is a one player position, so relatively teams are going to be much closer than when looking at other team aspects like forwards or defensemen.

    Imagine if every team just drafted one defenseman and that's all you had to go off of when comparing teams. There is no goalie equivalent to Orr, so let's pretend he doesn't exist. How would it look? The top 5 or so guys would be given a little extra credit, but how much weight would you give the difference between Chris Chelios and Mark Howe when you can look at 4 different forward lines with 3 players each. There's way more room for analysis and disparity when looking at the forwards, so you would naturally put more weight on them than the one player D.

    Another problem is that it's seems to be tough to think of some of these goalies as being "bad" or worst in the league when you know they have the capability to single handidly steal a series. Probably every goalie in the ATD has done it, just the best did it more often.
     
  18. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    Couple of points before I dive into the series.

    First, I wouldn't write off top goalies so quickly. Just two drafts ago, in ATD12, several teams with first round goalies went a long way, and Terry Sawchuk won it.

    IMO the differences between goaltenders are not that large once you get past the elite. But if you disagree, make the case.

    Hard to say without knowing Stoneberg's system. It's possible that one system holds down point totals.

    It's also possible that one conference had a wider spread in team "strength" (or voter opinion) than the other.
     
  19. BraveCanadian

    BraveCanadian Registered User

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    That proves my point exactly.

    They can make a huge difference in any game (and therefore any series) more singlehanded than any other player.

    So if you have one of those guys who did it more often it should carry some weight.
     
  20. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    We don't have the results for my conferences at this point - only the totals. Stoneberg did them at a cousin's house and I'm pretty sure they are now erased. He left the file there and he just got the results by phone on a need-to-know basis during the divisional finals. So I know just those 8 teams' point totals.

    If Stoneberg's system was 6-5-4-3-2, for example, then a 2nd place vote would be an 83% share as opposed to 80% in a 5-4-3-2-1 system. It would be inherently biased to one conference.

    Goalies can make a big difference. They also might not. Recently there have been plenty of goalies who wouldn't make anyone's top-10 list, getting deep in the playoffs, and even teams advancing deep despite mediocre goaltending.

    That would be my best guess, but as I said, that math doesn't really check out... unless... (see below)

    If the conferences were split up 20/20 randomly, it's highly unlikely that there can be that much of a difference between the two. A statistician could tell you for sure, but I know it would be very remote.

    That is more plausible than the above. Again though, I think it's unlikely that the differences would be that drastic. But they could be.

    I'm hoping Stoneberg could come in and explain for certain what he used for a points system. Even though this isn't incredibly important.
     
  21. tony d

    tony d Registered User Sponsor

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    Congrats to both teams on making it to the finals, looking forward to a good series.
     
  22. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    I don't think it's necessarily a given that Tony O is top 20.
     
  23. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    My thing with the goalies is that I don't think there's much difference between the 10th best and the 18th best. After the Belfour/Gardiner/Vezina* group goes, there is a fairly steep drop IMO. Obviously others don't agree.

    *I think he should be included now
     
  24. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    It should be a given.

    In point form:

    - A regular season resume of team accomplishments that would serve as a reasonable facsimile to Martin Brodeur's (i.e. top-2 in wins, shutouts, GAA)
    - The 2nd-most durable goaltender of the 2-goalie era, after Brodeur
    - 5 all-star teams, exceeded by only 9 goalies since 1931
    - 3 1st all-star teams, exceeded by only 5 goalies since 1931
    - An overall all-star/Vezina voting record exceeded in weight by perhaps three goalies post-expansion
    - A hart voting record exceeded by just three goalies post-expansion, and five goalies since 1924
    - A career regular season save% record that, when compared to the league average throughout his career, is 4th-best post-expansion, after Hasek, Dryden & Parent
    - A 5-year peak sv% that, when compared to the league average during that time, is 3rd-best post-expansion, after Hasek & Roy
    - A "with or without you" score in his 12-year prime, right in the realm of Parent, Roy, Dryden, Brodeur, and Plante, with only Hasek significantly ahead

    Not a single one of these things constitutes a top-10 goalie, or even a top-20 goalie. All of them combined, on the other hand... well, it gets pretty impossible to keep the guy out of the top-20, or even top-15.

    14th-16th is what I claimed when I took him.
     
  25. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    I think the case for Tony O in the top 18 is very flimsy. He's 19-24 in my book.

    I mean, in the last series, you had Tony O very slightly behind Belfour, which I think is fair, but how high do you have Belfour?

    Bernie Parent is 10th at best (I have him 11th), and he was without a doubt better than Tony O.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2011

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