ATD2011 Jim Coleman Semi: New Jersey Swamp Devils vs. Guelph Platers

BraveCanadian

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Lol @ Gretzky vs everyone else.

And yeah, everyone knows Trottier can score I hope. I don't think he's overrated by the HOH Top 100 for example, but Henri Richard is underrated (what exactly is the justification for the gap between Milt Schmidt and Henri?)

hehe yeah when you think about the names on that list, and the fact they were all basically in their prime, and then see Gretzky lapping the field.. it really is something even now.

I think Trottier is close to where he should be, once you're talking about the top 25-30 hockey players of all time you start splitting the hairs very finely to move around.

I agree about Henri though.. he is maybe not underrated but maybe under appreciated because as a kind of ES "specialist" he didn't get to pad his totals as much and get to that top level of fame or what have you.

Then again, he played on a dynasty and won more cups as a player than anyone so I'm sure he doesn't lose too much sleep over it. ;)
 

seventieslord

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Lol @ Gretzky vs everyone else.

And yeah, everyone knows Trottier can score I hope. I don't think he's overrated by the HOH Top 100 for example, but Henri Richard is underrated (what exactly is the justification for the gap between Milt Schmidt and Henri?)

Problem is, both were overrated by THN, then for some reason we continued to overrate Schmidt while (probably over-) correcting Henri's ranking. They definitely each need to move at least 10 spots closer together.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Problem is, both were overrated by THN, then for some reason we continued to overrate Schmidt while (probably over-) correcting Henri's ranking. They definitely each need to move at least 10 spots closer together.

Oh, of course. Schmidt was 28 and Henri 30 on the THN list. Both should be 15 or so spots later, I'd guess. Henri Richard out of the top 50 though... That would never happen if we were aware of his even strength scoring before the 2009 list project started though.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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Depth defensemen quickly, since I did everything else:

Bilyaletdinov - Pratt
Ley - Boyle

Smith - Desjardins
Macoun - Ruotsalainen

I'm a big fan of Eric Desjardins. You took him higher than he usually goes, but I really think this is the first time he was taken where he should be taken. His quiet, two-way game makes him one of the best even-strength defensemen on a second pairing. If Quackenbush is Lidstrom-lite, then Desjardins is perhaps Quackenbush-lite.

Babe Pratt is a more high-risk high-reward defenseman than Desjardins. He's better on the powerplay (better offense, better at keeping the puck in the zone) and perhaps better on the penalty kill (his shot blocking and physical play in front of the net are especially useful there). But I think Desjardins has to have at least something of an advantage over Pratt at even strength.

I think Steve Smith and Bilyaletdinov are close in value as standout middle defensemen for dynasty-level teams. Both compliment their partners nicely - Smith brings a hard-hitting game with production on both ends of the ice and Bilyaletdinov is the stay-at-home guy Pratt needs to be most effective.

-Overall, advantage to Guelph on the second pair because I think Desjardins is a better even strength defenseman than Pratt. Their partners are close in value and compliment them well.

-However, I think Pratt-Boyle is a great offensively oriented pair when they are put together (offensive zone draws at the end of periods, last half of 3rd period when trailing), which is better than what Guelph could do with their depth defensemen for those limited offensive situations only.

-NJ has the better bottom pair when they do play together because they gap between Boyle and Ruotsalainen as overall defensemen is much greater than any advantage Macoun has over Ley as a physical shutdown guy.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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Special teams:

I think NJ has a better powerplay.

Lapointe is the best PP QB in the series, but I like Boyle and Pratt both more than Desjardins here. NJ has the better forwards on the first unit though with Maurice Richard more than making up for Trottier's PP excellence. I'd also take Henri Richard/Starshinov over the Middleton/Vaive combo. Starshinov's main value is his ability to get goals from in tight.

I also like NJ's forwards on the second PP unit better, particularly Zigmund Palffy, but Todd Bertuzzi's giant body in front of the net will definitely help too. Quackenbush is the best second unit pointman I think, though Coulter may be worse than Steve Smith.

I think NJ has a slightly better PK:

Mainly because Coulter is the best penalty killing defenseman in the series. On the other hand, Poulin is the best PKing forward in the series. Trottier-Middleton is a great second forward pair. NJ's second forward pair isn't as good, but our third forward pair might be better than our second (Henri and Phillips take the last shift of the PK to try to exploit a tired PP). Neither team has any holes in the PK lineup - I expect both units to be quite effective. I think defensemen are more important to the PK than forwards, so I prefer NJ's PK, but it's not by the same margin as the PP.
 
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overpass

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Oh, of course. Schmidt was 28 and Henri 30 on the THN list. Both should be 15 or so spots later, I'd guess. Henri Richard out of the top 50 though... That would never happen if we were aware of his even strength scoring before the 2009 list project started though.

The younger, stats-oriented crowd was pretty down on Henri when discussing the original list. A lot of suggestions that he was a support player overrated by playing on great teams. FissionFire led the charge against him and I was in that camp too. On the other hand the more reputation-oriented (older) voters were his biggest supporters. God Bless Canada and others.

He was one of the more polarizing options at the time. I think the additional info we have now means there's a bit more consensus on him.
 

BraveCanadian

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Poweplay:

I think NJ has a better powerplay.

Special teams are one area I have to disagree with you about.

I've gotten beaten up about my second line all draft and I'm surprised no one has brought this up about your PP before now.

Guelph has the better special teams and that is going to close a lot of the gaps offensively between our teams and give us the edge in this series.

Here is why:

Lapointe is the best PP QB in the series,

I agree with you here, Lapointe was great on special teams.

but I like Boyle and Pratt both more than Desjardins here.

This is very debatable.

Pratt for example "exploded" offensively in the war years and then "imploded" again as soon as they were over. Boyle has the benefit of playing post lockout against weak competition, although he certainly is talented.

Even if what you say is true by some margin, Desjardins was a very capable powerplay point man in his long career and, playing with Lapointe and Trottier, he doesn't have to do the heavy lifting.

Furthermore, having him on our first unit assisting Lapointe leaves us with a second great, creative quarterback for our second unit.

NJ has the better forwards on the first unit though with Maurice Richard more than making up for Trottier's PP excellence.

I'd agree that Maurice is the best individual goal scoring weapon on either of our poweplays, of course. (Trottier can score OR make plays which is very dangerous in itself).

However, as a group our 1st PP is easily stronger in goalscoring and everything else for that matter.

The problem is that after Maurice Richard on your 1st forward unit.. you drop off considerably.

I'd also take Henri Richard/Starshinov over the Middleton/Vaive combo. Starshinov's main value is his ability to get goals from in tight.

Middleton and Vaive are proven to be hugely more effective on the powerplay than either H. Richard or the unknown Starshinov.

Starshinov
Unknown in this setting, but I'll give the benefit of the doubt and assume "effective".

H. Richard
46 PP goals in his career. 155 PP points in his 1200+ game career.

Brian Trottier
161 PP goals, 4 times top 10 PP goals (8 times top 20 I believe) and an elite playmaker in addition.

Rick Middleton
115 PP goals, 3 times top 10 in PP goals and a "nifty" playmaker.

Rick Vaive
143 PP goals, 2 times top 10 in PP goals.

Of course, era plays a part in these numbers, for sure. However, those are staggering differences and my three guys, which include an elite playmaker and the best powerplay quarterback in the series, will surely outweigh what Maurice Richard can do without a playmaker.

You'll say: "Henri is the playmaker."

Henri, as you have pointed out yourself earlier in the thread, was largely unused on the powerplay. I have dug into this some more now. I'll put forward that this is because he was not a particularly effective powerplay player. He is undersized to retrieve pucks off the boards (and you put him there here) and I'll say was probably most offensively effective rushing, not setup in the zone.

He will be relied on very heavily for his playmaking ability up front on this powerplay (if we give Starshinov the benefit of the doubt and assume his league stats translate somewhat to this setting and he is at least effective as a butt in front of the net) because of our outstanding penalty killing forwards.

If we consider Starshinov a lesser Espo/Kerr/Andreychuk guy planting himself in front of the net, he obviously isn't much of a playmaker. And we know Maurice is not a playmaker despite anyones protestations otherwise.

Now I know the counter argument you're going to make is "the Canadiens had Beliveau playing first unit". That is true, but if Henri was a good powerplay player, couldn't they have played him some more second line minutes or occasionally out of position as you have him here? Was Toe Blake a bad coach at evaluating what he had?

How about when Beliveau was hurt?

For example, the first time Henri was the league leader in assists was 57-58 when Beliveau missed 15 games and Henri got to play more.

This is also the year that he had his highest powerplay point total of his career with 20. That seems to support your argument except that three other times in his career he hit 15,16,17 PP points. Outside those four seasons he was basically a powerplay non-factor, maxing out at 11 powerplay points on a season.

So basically giving him 15 games of increased responsibility on the powerplay didn't really do a lot. He scored an extra 3-5 points in 15 games on a dynasty club known for its powerplay.

Basically Henri Richard had a point on an average of less than 10 powerplay markers a year during his career. Second unit time doesn't pass the smell test explaining that considering the quality of the teams he played on.

Combined with the threat of our PKers that I'll get into later, we have a decided edge on the first powerplay units because yours is largely non-functional as a sum of its parts up front.

I also like NJ's forwards on the second PP unit better, particularly Zigmund Palffy, but Todd Bertuzzi's giant body in front of the net will definitely help too. Quackenbush is the best second unit pointman I think, though Coulter may be worse than Steve Smith.

Zigmund Palffy
3 top 10 poweplay goals

Todd Bertuzzi
2 top 10 powerplay goals

Clint Smith
0? but the "playmaker"
However Clint Smith's peak of 49 assists was 18 higher than his next highest.. and the peak year was 1944. I'll put an * on that one. Take out the war years boost and he is still a good playmaker, though.

John Ogrodnick
3 times top 10 powerplay goals

Rick MacLeish
2 times top 10 powerplay goals.

Rene Robert
1 time top 10 powerplay goals.

I know the question for the 1000th time will be, yeah, but who is the playmaker up front on your second line?

MacLeish: 125 career PP assists.
Robert: 183 career PP assists.

Both significantly more than the playmaker on your front line (yes, I know, era, but still they are more than adequate).

If Smith is better than Coulter by a bit then the points are going to wash because our Finn is very good.

I'd call the second PP units pretty even overall, which I am fine with when enjoying a large advantage on the first unit.


Penalty Killing
I think NJ has a slightly better PK:

Mainly because Coulter is the best penalty killing defenseman in the series. On the other hand, Poulin is the best PKing forward in the series.

Yes, Poulin is the best PK forward in this in my opinion too. He is also playing with MacLeish so your first powerplay unit will need to be very careful.

In addition to being a great defensive forward, Poulin was great at faceoffs and a great shorthanded threat.

5 times he was top 10 in the league in SH goals and is 6th all time with 39 SH goals.

MacLeish isn't as good defensively as Poulin (obviously) but his speed will help take away your space and his threat on the PK will keep you honest.

6 times he was top 10 in the league in SH goals. (admittedly two of those are only 2 goals though) and he has 23 in his career.

Trottier-Middleton is a great second forward pair. NJ's second forward pair isn't as good, but our third forward pair might be better than our second (Henri and Phillips take the last shift of the PK to try to exploit a tired PP). Neither team has any holes in the PK lineup - I expect both units to be quite effective. I think defensemen are more important to the PK than forwards, so I prefer NJ's PK, but it's not by the same margin as the PP.

Trottier-Middleton is outstanding. They can both skate, both are excellent defensively and both are a SH threat. Trottier is outstanding at faceoffs too.

Trottier was twice in the top 10 for SH goals and has 19 on his career.

Middleton was in the top 10 for SH goals three times and has 25 on his career.

I like our defensemen too. Both our units have a large physical guy to keep the front of the net clean and a guy who can skate, anticipate, and move the puck out smartly when we get possession.

I don't think our edge on the PK is as strong as our one on the PP, and you're right that both our teams feature strong penalty killing.. but in my eyes I see us having the advantage on the PK as well.
 
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seventieslord

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BC, I fully realize that using Henri Richard in a major role on the PP can be risky business in the ATD because he's not nearly as "proven" there as a multitude of lesser players.

However - using his size against him, as a reason why he wouldn't be effective on the PP, is a little dirty pool. To me, it sounds a little manipulative. For example, what scouting report have you heard about countless small players before? "Good in the open ice, so he is an excellent PP weapon, but due to his size, has some trouble in traffic, which limits his even strength effectiveness". I've never heard "excellent at even strength, but due to his size, less effective on the PP." - it's backwards.
 

BraveCanadian

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BC, I fully realize that using Henri Richard in a major role on the PP can be risky business in the ATD because he's not nearly as "proven" there as a multitude of lesser players.

Yeah, not to knock Henri because I like him and he is a valuable player.. but once I dug into it, I believe that is a very poorly constructed 1st powerplay despite having Maurice Richard.

However - using his size against him, as a reason why he wouldn't be effective on the PP, is a little dirty pool. To me, it sounds a little manipulative. For example, what scouting report have you heard about countless small players before? "Good in the open ice, so he is an excellent PP weapon, but due to his size, has some trouble in traffic, which limits his even strength effectiveness". I've never heard "excellent at even strength, but due to his size, less effective on the PP." - it's backwards.

All things being equal that is probably generally true. At even strength though, Henri is a center. I'm sure you know why many smaller players are centermen - to generally keep them off the boards against bigger players. Gilmour, Ronning, the list goes on and on. If you're a small forward you get "encouraged" to play center. Marty St. Louis is a real exception to the rule today. Fleury would be one from the past. Maybe Henri can be here.. I don't know. Based on his PP record though, I think the odds are against him.

Here he is on the boards, and at a decided disadvantage against my right defensemen who can skate well enough to stay with him and can easily overpower him on the boards. Putting him on the boards automatically takes away some of that extra space he would have benefited from in the rule of thumb.

My sense from what I have seen of Henri is that he is a player who creates offense off the rush.
 
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seventieslord

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I know lots of big centers and lots of small centers, lots of big wingere and lots of small wingers... not saying you're wrong, but my gut instinct is that the average size for wingers and centers is virtually the same. Can anyone confirm or refute this with some data?
 

BraveCanadian

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I know lots of big centers and lots of small centers, lots of big wingere and lots of small wingers... not saying you're wrong, but my gut instinct is that the average size for wingers and centers is virtually the same. Can anyone confirm or refute this with some data?

You wouldn't be looking for the average.

You'd be looking for the number of players who are "small" playing each position to get a sense of where they play primarily.

I'm not sure about these days but certainly for the majority of the time I have been watching hockey, I was under the impression that smaller forwards by and large played center.

In any case it isn't the main argument here.
 
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overpass

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Yeah, not to knock Henri because I like him and he is a valuable player.. but once I dug into it, I believe that is a very poorly constructed 1st powerplay despite having Maurice Richard.



All things being equal that is probably generally true. At even strength though, Henri is a center. I'm sure you know why many smaller players are centermen - to generally keep them off the boards against bigger players. Gilmour, Ronning, the list goes on and on. If you're a small forward you get "encouraged" to play center. Marty St. Louis is a real exception to the rule today. Fleury would be one from the past. Maybe Henri can be here.. I don't know. Based on his PP record though, I think the odds are against him.

Here he is on the boards, and at a decided disadvantage against my right defensemen who can skate well enough to stay with him and can easily overpower him on the boards. Putting him on the boards automatically takes away some of that extra space he would have benefited from in the rule of thumb.

My sense from what I have seen of Henri is that he is a player who creates offense off the rush.

Henri certainly isn't going to be a Dickie Moore or Bert Olmstead along the boards.
 

BraveCanadian

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I know lots of big centers and lots of small centers, lots of big wingere and lots of small wingers... not saying you're wrong, but my gut instinct is that the average size for wingers and centers is virtually the same. Can anyone confirm or refute this with some data?

I was bored and wanted to confirm that my rule of thumb was just as valid as seventies scouting report rule of thumb (which is also true generally) so as long as I counted all this stuff correctly:

All forwards under 6 feet tall on the nhl.com current rosters and how many of them are listed at center:

Ana 4/6
Atl 3/3
Bos 2/3
Buff 2/3
Cal 2/2
Car 1/4
Chi 2/3
Col 1/1
Cbs 1/2
Dal 2/2
Det 4/5
Edm 3/4
Flo 2/6
La 1/3
Min 1/5
Mon 5/7
Nas 1/4
NJD 3/4
NYI 2/2
NYR 1/3
Ott 1/4
Phi 4/7
Phx 4/6
Pit 5/8
Stl 3/3
Sjs 5/5
Tb 1/4
Tor 1/2
Van 1/3
Was 2/2

Total Players under 6 feet at all forwards: 117
Centermen under 6 feet: 70

So yeah, 70/117 ~ 60% of all forwards under 6 feet are listed at center.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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•To answer one of your questions: *It's well known that Toe Blake placed a huge priority in having his best defensive center (Henri Richard) out there the shift after every PP. *It's also well known that in the O6 era, shifts were longer and the PP unit took the whole 2 minutes, so there was no second wave.

•Henri was noted as being excellent along the boards over his career, similar to another small center named Doug Gilmour. And unlike Gilmour, Henri was a really good fighter. And it's not like he's the only guy on the first unit who can retrieve the puck.

•You really think all-things considered, that Vaive of all people would be more effective on the PP than Henri Richard?

•Starsh was at his best in front of the net, in the goalie's face. Do you even have a guy to get in the goalie's face in the PP?

•Zigmund Palffy and Clint Smith are both playmakers on the powerplay. I described my powerplay's functionality in the link in the original post o this thread. Who is the playmaker on your second unit, again? *Who is standing in front of the net? *I have no doubt my second PP will be more effective than yours. *

•Care to explain how the Finn is even in Quackenbush's league?

•Swamp Devils have the better second PP by far. *First units are closer, but I still prefer mine
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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By the way, if you want to completely discount Henri on the PP, you have to give him full credit at ES, where he was actually statistically more productive than Trottier. I think this would be silly though and ignore the effects of ice time and opportunity, which is why I never claimed an advatage over Trottier at even strength.
 

BraveCanadian

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•To answer one of your questions: *It's well known that Toe Blake placed a huge priority in having his best defensive center (Henri Richard) out there the shift after every PP. *It's also well known that in the O6 era, shifts were longer and the PP unit took the whole 2 minutes, so there was no second wave.

That is true a lot of the time in the O6 but if it was a hard and fast rule.. how did he get powerplay points at all?

Secondly, if he was good enough to be a front line player in the ATD PP why didn't he get time even when Beliveau was past his prime?

•Henri was noted as being excellent along the boards over his career, similar to another small center named Doug Gilmour. **And it's not like he's the only guy on the first unit who can retrieve the puck. *

Gilmour was gritty along the boards and I'm sure that Henri was too.. the issue is that centers go to the boards and then get out of there. They don't stay there long.

Your other two guys problem is neither of them can as effectively move the puck once they do retrieve it which limits your options quite a bit.

•You really think all-things considered, that Vaive of all people would be more effective on the PP than Henri Richard?

The way our powerplays are configured right now, I have almost no doubt. All Vaive has to do is what he did best.

•Starsh was at his best in front of the net, in the goalie's face. *Do you even have a guy to get in the goalie's face in the PP?

Since when do you *need* to have a guy in the goalies face? In today's NHL with all the garbage goals, yes, it appears to be effective pretty often.

The vast majority of hockey history (with notable exceptions of course), most PPs did not have that non-moving presence screening in front. They went there when it made sense to go there.

Certainly I have guys more than willing to go there if the situation calls for it.

•Zigmund Palffy and Clint Smith are both playmakers on the powerplay. I described my powerplay's functionality in the link in the original post o this thread. *Who is the playmaker on your second unit, again? *Who is standing in front of the net? *I have no doubt my second PP will be more effective than yours. *

I already answered that because I knew it would be brought up yet again. Similarly to you, I have two guys who can create plays on my powerplay.

•Care to explain how the Finn is even in Quackenbush's league?

Care to explain why he isn't? I mean in his role as a powerplay quarterback on a second unit? I have no question Quackenbush is a better overall player.

I see a lot in your bio about how good all around he is, and how good he was at outlet passing and rushing the puck (which are both things that Reijo is also good at).. Reijo is a specialist in this..

•Swamp Devils have the better second PP by far. *First units are closer, but I still prefer mine

I believe I finally found the chink in your armor Swamp Devils! ;)

I stand by my longer post explaining why. I feel we have the decisive edge overall in special teams.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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Why the Swamp Devils should win:

1) Better first unit - these first units will go head to head and the Swamp Devils have the better first unit.

•the gaps between Gillies / Maurice Richard and Ramsey / Coulter are enormous

•if Trottier has an advantage over Henri at even strength, it's relatively small, and largely due to his size and physical edge, something proven to be largely ineffective against Henri.

2) NJ has far more secondary scoring among our depth forwards, without giving up much if anything defensively over the group.

3) Al Arbour is a big advantage behind the bench, he isn't a miracle worker and here, he just doesn't have the horses, especially up front.
 
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BraveCanadian

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Why the Guelph Platers should win:


We have a good edge in coaching which makes our entire team better.

We have the edge in goaltending and, even if it is slight, it is big in the playoffs.

We have enough defensive and two-way horses at ES to limit the damage the Devils can do at ES to a reasonable amount. Trottier is simply a better all around player than H. Richard. Gillies is creamed by M. Richard offensively (obviously), so he'll just concentrate on defending him and being physical against him to draw penalties from Richard's lack of control.

We have a huge edge on the 1st PP, and a small one overall on PK to make up the offensive gaps at ES.

We have the eye of the tiger, and we put the grrr in swinger.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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The way our powerplays are configured right now, I have almost no doubt. All Vaive has to do is what he did best.

All Henri has to do is what he does best - skate / rove around the offensive zone and get the puck to his teammates.

And please stop pretending the other guys can't even make simple passes to teammates. The Rocket did lead the playoffs in assists once, though I'm sure it was something of a fluke, it shows he's not going to shoot like a moron whenever he gets the puck.

Since when do you *need* to have a guy in the goalies face? In today's NHL with all the garbage goals, yes, it appears to be effective pretty often.

The best PPs usually have a net presence. In the playoffs, especially, the only way to beat a hot goalie can be to screen him. Since we both have goalies capable of stealing games, having guys who can harass Broda on the PP gives me a huge advantage.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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Just a note on Quack: in Hy Buller's Pelletier profile, his coach, Frank Boucher compared Hy to Bill and is quoted as saying that Hy, like Quackenbush, was very good on the point of the powerplay.
 

Velociraptor

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Big Smoke
New Jersey Swamp Devils DEFEAT Guelph Platers in OVERTIME of Game 5.

3 STARS:
1. Maurice Richard, NJ
2. Bryan Trottier, GUE
3. Henri Richard, NJ

HM's: Gardiner, Broda
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Thanks for the hard fought battle, BC. You had a really strong team, and with some experience behind your belt next time, I expect you to really be a force.
 

BraveCanadian

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Thanks for the hard fought battle, BC. You had a really strong team, and with some experience behind your belt next time, I expect you to really be a force.

I don't think 5 games counts as a very closely fought battle but congrats on the win. You've got a strong team all around.
 

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