ATD10-ML Sir Montagu semifinal: #2 Peterborough Petes vs. #3 Melville Millionaires
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VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
The second round discussion runs from Saturday through Tuesday.
Wednesday is Voting Day.
Here's hoping the second round discussions are as lively as the first round ones were!!
Wednesday is Voting Day.
Here's hoping the second round discussions are as lively as the first round ones were!!
Good luck to TC.
I've been looking forward to this since the conferences were announced. A rematch of last year's MLD final.
Two best-coached teams in the draft. I think we have a slight edge, with the Johnson/McMillan good cop-bad cop tandem. But it's really, really close. Not the difference-maker that we'd have in most series.
I think our biggest edge is team toughness. We're going to hit these guys early and often. Wear them down. Use our imposing forecheck to make their defence hesitant. Fredrick Olausson is one defenceman, in particular, who will really struggle against the forechecking skills of guys like Smyth, Hextall, Crowder, Gee, Niedermayer, Mike Richards and Wensink.
I've been looking forward to this since the conferences were announced. A rematch of last year's MLD final.
Two best-coached teams in the draft. I think we have a slight edge, with the Johnson/McMillan good cop-bad cop tandem. But it's really, really close. Not the difference-maker that we'd have in most series.
I think our biggest edge is team toughness. We're going to hit these guys early and often. Wear them down. Use our imposing forecheck to make their defence hesitant. Fredrick Olausson is one defenceman, in particular, who will really struggle against the forechecking skills of guys like Smyth, Hextall, Crowder, Gee, Niedermayer, Mike Richards and Wensink.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
The Petes' Pilous is the coach of the draft according to voting and Johnson isn't the one who's even a close second. And as for assistant coaches, both teams in this series have a longtime successful junior hockey bench boss, the Milionaires the most wins and the Petes the best peak with a Stanley Cup as assistant coach and a better career winning percentage.
Edge in goaltending goes to Peterborough in the series.
The Petes #3 dman won't struggle as much as the Millionaires #3 blueliner in Jovanovski!
Olausson scored the series clinching OT goal against Colorado on his way to winning the stanley cup in Detroit in '02 to cap off a career which spanned the high flying eighties and tight checking nineties. I didn't see 6'1, 195 lbs. smart Freddie struggle much against speedy forecheckers and don't expect Melville will totally nip his rushing style either.
Jovanovski is as good defensively as McCabe except he fights a lot more. Expect him to sit in the box after fighting Tucker in this series.
No advantage with #3 dman here.
First off, how does Freddie Olausson scored "the series-winning OT goal against Colorado" for Detroit in 2002 when Detroit won Game 7 7-0? Oops.
I watched Olausson throughout his career. He had the skill and the ability to be an ATDer. He has excellent skill, and one of the hardest shots in the draft. There were years when he was a marvel to watch offensively. But the cold, hard reality is he topped 50 points only once after 1992-93, even though, based on age, 1993-94 should have been the start of his prime. A lot of seasons, he left you wanting more.
Olausson has a lot more upside than Dave Ellett, but I would say Ellett was the better player.
Second, I'm assuming you didn't see much of Jovo last year in Phoenix. Really settled down and played a strong all-round game, while piecing together a 50-plus-point season. Jovo's a risky proposition, but when he has settled down and tried not too much, he's been really good. Watch last year in Phoenix, the 2002 Olympics, the second half of 1999-2000 in Vancouver, his rookie year in Florida...
And playing behind George Owen, he plays a simpler game, as he doesn't have to carry the defence. While he brings more to the defence than any other defenceman in the MLD - a combination of size, skill and toughness - he's at his best when he doesn't try to do too much.
In this series, Samuelsson and Lefebvre will likely be second and third on our team in ice time for defencemen. They were rocks in their respective careers. We're confident playing them against either of the Petes' top lines.
In terms of goaltending, I think McLean's better in the playoffs than Liut. Liut never had a playoff like McLean in 1994, and I would doubt he had a playoff as good as McLean in 1992 or 1995. (McLean's 95 stats were skewered by an 8-2 loss to St. Louis). Liut only had two playoffs below 3.00 GAA. McLean's career playoff GAA is below 3.00.
I think a lot of people underestimate Tom Johnson's coaching ability. He only spent two-and-a-half years as a head coach, but he was an excellent player's coach, the kind of coach who's perfect for Pierre Larouche.
The Mills assistant coach also has two national titles and two world championships, for what it's worth.
I think the world of the Petes' coaches. I had Pilous as my No. 1-rated coach (although I think Johnson is a better fit for our team). But I think our coaching, overall, is every bit as good.
I want to know how the Petes second line will do physically. I understand that Hergesheimer is a good second line scorer who drives well to the front of the net, but is he tough enough to open up room for his linemates, and how will he do in the corners against guys like Samuelsson, Galley, Lefebvre and Jovanovski, not to mention the gritty wingers we have on the bottom three lines?
Sanderson and Pederson are offensive dynamos, to be certain, especially at this level. But they still need somebody to open up room for them if their skill is going to be maximized.
I don't have the same concerns about their first line. Tony McKegney is a little like Ryan Smyth in that he isn't the true rough-and-tumble power forward, like say, a Deadmarsh or a Crowder. But he's strong in front of the net, he's good in the corners, he'll finish his checks and he's good on the forecheck. He's probably a little more natural of a goal-scorer than Smyth, and he has a harder shot, but Smyth is better in front of the net and in the corners.
Sanderson and Pederson are offensive dynamos, to be certain, especially at this level. But they still need somebody to open up room for them if their skill is going to be maximized.
I don't have the same concerns about their first line. Tony McKegney is a little like Ryan Smyth in that he isn't the true rough-and-tumble power forward, like say, a Deadmarsh or a Crowder. But he's strong in front of the net, he's good in the corners, he'll finish his checks and he's good on the forecheck. He's probably a little more natural of a goal-scorer than Smyth, and he has a harder shot, but Smyth is better in front of the net and in the corners.
A couple other things:
*It's on the rosters page, but not here: Rob Niedermayer is on our third line, and Doug Brown is on our fourth line. Don't expect much (anything?) from the easily-intimidated Sanderson when he's matched up with Niedermayer.
*Brad Richards also sports an A on our team. So that should be Smyth and the Richards sporting "A's."
*These are our full penalty killing units:
PK1: Pandolfo-Gee-Samuelsson-Lefebvre
PK2: Smyth-B. Richards-Owen-Markov
PK3: Crowder-M. Richards-Jovanovski-Galley
PK 4: Brown-Niedermayer-Samuelsson-Owen
*It's on the rosters page, but not here: Rob Niedermayer is on our third line, and Doug Brown is on our fourth line. Don't expect much (anything?) from the easily-intimidated Sanderson when he's matched up with Niedermayer.
*Brad Richards also sports an A on our team. So that should be Smyth and the Richards sporting "A's."
*These are our full penalty killing units:
PK1: Pandolfo-Gee-Samuelsson-Lefebvre
PK2: Smyth-B. Richards-Owen-Markov
PK3: Crowder-M. Richards-Jovanovski-Galley
PK 4: Brown-Niedermayer-Samuelsson-Owen
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VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
My memory failed me... indeed the OT goal came earlier in that series.
On this we agree. And he was smart positionally, not like Jovo.
True, I didn't. He could have put it all together. I did watch his rookie year in Florida and went to his Spitfires games when I was in grad school in Windsor (saw Spezza and Ott there too) and he simply struggled with 'hockey sense' at the NHL level, had trouble adjusting to the speed of the game with bad passes and out of position plays to go along with his greatness. He was a work in progress. In Vancouver he was no Ohlund. I can't express enough how smart Mattias was as a rookie compared to Jovo, like night and day.
I still don't think Jovo is a top-3 defenseman on any all-time context team, even a second tier one. Put him in the #5 slot, third pairing, and benefit from his powerplay and hitting and fighting and not have him log heavy minutes. Maybe in the future I'll change my mind by watching more Phoenix games (Phoenix, LA and St. Louis,... I simply have avoided watching these days).
ah... maybe you'd like to adjust the line-up accordingly
Definite edge to Captain Kirk.
Under 3 years as head coach is a factor. He may be an above average pick for this draft but there is a clear advantage to the Petes in coaching imo.
Pilous only spent five-and-a-half years as a head coach, so longevity isn't exactly a strength for Pilous either. Both guys won a Stanley Cup. Ironically, Pilous only has 20 more regular season wins, and three more playoff wins, than Johnson.
I think you're underrating Jovanovski. When he has settled down in his career, he has sown he can dominate. It's the old "less is more" adage. I've seen times in which he has struggled. And struggled for prolonged periods. I've also seen him go through stretches where he has dominated, like last year, like the first half of 2003-04 (he was a strong Norris candidate until injuries sunk in), and like the second half of 1999-2000, when he was one of the Canucks' best players when they had one of the best records after the all-star break.
He has been selected to four best-on-best tournaments for Canada in his career, too. (Missed the 06 Olys due to injury, and was on the taxi squad for the 96 World Cup).
I think this situation is the best type for him. Outside of McKegney, I don't see a really dangerous forechecker on this Petes team. He's probably going to be fourth or fifth in MP for our defencemen in this series. He isn't in a situation where there is a lot of expectations, which will yield a simpler game, in which he doesn't have to do too much. Owen and Samuelsson are the guys who face the big expectations on our team.
Incidentally, Jovo was a Calder finalist in his rookie year, so he must have been doing something right.
I think the best-of-seven format favours Melville. We will benefit in Game 1 from playing in the first round, while Peterborough was sitting and waiting. And with our physical advantages, a long, seven-game series favours us. That second line for the Petes won't survive seven games. Not unless Hergesheimer can bring that physical dimension that second line needs. Seven games for that line is not a favourable situation. Seven games for a guy like Andrew Cassels won't be a good situation, either.
I have a lot of respect for the Petes third line. I have a lot of respect for any line with Ray Getliffe on it. He's the best defensive forward remaining. But we already dispatched the team with the best defensive forward in the draft, and the best two-way line in the draft. And the Petes third line is the only one well-suited to matching up against a scoring line. That's going to leave the Mills with a favourable match-up for their scoring lines.
I have a lot of respect for the Petes third line. I have a lot of respect for any line with Ray Getliffe on it. He's the best defensive forward remaining. But we already dispatched the team with the best defensive forward in the draft, and the best two-way line in the draft. And the Petes third line is the only one well-suited to matching up against a scoring line. That's going to leave the Mills with a favourable match-up for their scoring lines.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
raleh
Registered User
- Feb 24, 2003
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Thanks for the series, TC.Or whatever you're called now. Feels pretty good to beat you (more than it normally would for the MLD) after you beat me in the final of the last draft. (Of course, it would mean more if we beat you in the final).
Maybe we can do it again sometime.
Now if only raleh and I could beat HO...
Maybe we can do it again sometime.
Now if only raleh and I could beat HO...
