ATD10-ML Sir Montagu Allen semifinal: #1 Regina Capitals vs. #4 The Soo Greyhounds

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
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7-Game Second Round Playoff Series

Sir Montagu Allan division:


Sault St. Marie Greyhounds

Coach: Randy Carlyle

Anton Stastny - Paul Ronty - Paul MacLean (A)
Ray Whitney - Dave Gagner - Ulf Dahlen
Mark Osborne - Alexander Almetov - Stu Barnes
Eric Vail - Laurie Boschman - Bulldog Fairbairn
Marion Gaborik

Dick Redmond - Jeff Beukeboom
Paul Shmyr (C) - Doug Bodger (A)
Rick Green - Jay Bouwmeester
Curt Giles, Dennis Kearns

Ron Hextall
Bouse Hutton


at


Regina Capitals

Coach: Eddie Gerard

Steve Payne - Kent Nilsson - Yevgeny Babich (A)
Slava Kozlov - Paul Haynes - Tony Amonte
Brian Rolston - Brian Skrudland (A) - Jimmy Peters
Bob Probert - Syl Apps Jr. - Alf Skinner
Mike Krushelnyski, Cal Gardner

Glen Wesley (C) - Goldie Prodger
Robert Svehla - Hy Buller
Jeff Brown - Robyn Regehr
Yevgeny Paladiev

Miikka Kiprusoff
Ed Johnston

 

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
35,294
6,487
South Korea
The second round discussion runs from Saturday through Tuesday.

Wednesday is Voting Day.

Here's hoping the second round discussions are as lively as the first round ones were!!
 

seventieslord

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Mar 16, 2006
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Papershoes and SSM: Best of luck. I expect to be back later today to post some arguments.

After a long and hard preliminary series you guys will need to dig deep.
 

seventieslord

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Mar 16, 2006
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Sorry that I haven't yet had the time to make some arguments. Life is hectic and it's only going to get more difficult. I have a very tough week of work ahead of me with long OT, and then I'm gone for my honeymoon for 14 days - I will have limited connectivity.

My co-GM needs to play a major part in any victories going forward.
 

vancityluongo

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Sorry that I haven't yet had the time to make some arguments. Life is hectic and it's only going to get more difficult. I have a very tough week of work ahead of me with long OT, and then I'm gone for my honeymoon for 14 days - I will have limited connectivity.

My co-GM needs to play a major part in any victories going forward.

I'm dying too. I don't even know what's going on in my life, but I'll definitely do my best here.

All right, to start off, good luck to our opponents, on what will hopefully be a respectful and close series.

As for the actual arguments, I'll make some minor points, and maybe we can get some discussion going based on that.

-We have the best offensive player in the series, and arguably the draft in Nilsson. He was I believe a PPG in every season he played in except one. Ronty is solid, but I think we have an advantage here.

-Team defence. When I saw we got voted for top seed without a all-star, I right away felt that it was because of our blueline depth. 1-6, I think we have the best defenceman, hell make that 1-7. Combine that with responsible forwards, and a solid goalie in Kipper, we've got a bunch of guys that will be hard to score against.

-Speaking of goalies, I'd say that's one area the Greyhounds have an advantage. Hextall was top on my list for goalies for this draft, however, we have a guy who we feel isn't much worse. There are advantages and disadvantages to both, but I think I should give credit here where it's due.

-It's kinda hard to say this to a team that has a guy named Bulldog, but I think we probably have the grittier team from top to bottom. Guys like Whitney and Stastny will be pushed around often.

-I don't want to be hypocritical considering how much I pushed in the main draft that coaching wasn't important, because it kinda isn't. However, I've said before that I feel it's more crucial in the MLD, and still do feel that way. So I'm glad we have a bit of a coaching advantage, IMO, which could be a factor. All kudos has to go to seventies on this who found Gerard, and I have to say, we have a guy who seems to have flown under the ATD/MLD radar despite an impressive resume. Carlyle is a nice coach with a cup, but he hasn't been around that long, and now that he no longer has a star filled roster and guys are starting to figure his tendencies out, his job seems to be jeopardy.

That's the couple quick points that I got. :)
 

seventieslord

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Mar 16, 2006
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Regina, SK
Thanks for coming in to help out, VI. It appears that this series has cooincided with a vacation or family emergency or computer catastrophe of our esteemed opponent. It is only right to come in and state our case - I wouldn't want to receive any votes "just because".

I have handled each series I've been in, just a little differently from the last, and this one will be no exception. I thought I'd start with brief and simple position-by-position comparisons.

Steve Payne and Anton Stastny: Stastny is the more skilled player. Payne at his best was a better goal-scorer but Stastny kept it up for longer, because he didn't get wrecked by injuries. Stastny was the better playmaker. Payne was bigger, stronger, and grittier, although not as punishing as some would have liked. Although Anton's playoff record is not bad, Payne is a playoff warrior with three very strong playoffs under his belt, including one outstanding one.

Kent Nilsson and Paul Ronty: Ronty is one of the very best offensive centers in this draft. I believe Nilsson is the best. Ronty was a decent scorer and an excellent playmaker. Nilsson was excellent in both areas. Neither is going to provide a physical dimension. Nilsson's playoff struggles are well-documented, and part of that is because of how successful he was during the regular season. As I mentioned when drafting him, his production did drop a lot in the playoffs, but what it dropped to (0.88 PPG) was still quite good. This link shows the leading playoff scorers from 1980-1987, Nilsson's playoff years. Nilsson's 38th in points per game. Eliminate players drafted in ATD10, and he's 6th. Lysiak, Larouche, Payne, Maruk and an undrafted player would be ahead. Ronty's playoff resume could be described as incomplete; however, in those 21 playoff goals, would it be asking a lot of him to get more than a goal and 7 assists?

Evgeny Babich & Paul MacLean: Obviously it is very difficult to compare these two players a continent and three decades apart. I won't try to. I posted some very flattering quotes about Babich's fortitude and style of play. I believe he complements this line well, giving Nilsson two bookends who will help give him the courage he needs to produce in the playoffs. MacLean is similar to Payne - same goalscoring credentials, size, and opposite wing, but without the sparkling playoff resume.

Slava Kozlov & Ray Whitney: a couple of undersized active oldies who manage to keep producing no matter where they go. Whitney is probably a little better than Kozlov in terms of regular season scoring talent. Kozlov is more of an intangibles guy to even things out. The playoffs is where the difference lies. Kozlov is a two-time cup winner and big-time clutch scorer. Whitney has won a cup and was great, but hasn't done much aside from that. In playoff games, goals, assists, and per-game averages, Kozlov has him beat.

Paul Haynes & Dave Gagner: I like Gagner a lot. He was gutsy and had a good amount of talent. He never made the top-10 in anything but was top-15 in goals twice. But he is no Paul Haynes. Paul Haynes was one of the top passers of his day, as evidenced by his 5 top-12 assists finishes and the quotes about his passing from the NY Times. (Haynes peaked at a time of slightly weaker competition, but it was not pre-consolidation and it was not WW2) Goal-scoring was not his forte, but he did make the top-15 in goals once. Gagner had a fantastic playoff in 1991, (6th in goals, 8th in assists, 5th in points) and his playoff averages are higher than his regular season averages, but this is not enough to bridge the serious gap in credentials. (Haynes saw a 16% drop in his playoff numbers but league scoring as a whole dropped by 30% on average, and he was on the assists and points leaderboards twice each)

Tony Amonte & Ulf Dahlen: Dahlen is a hell of a player. A decent scorer and a fantastic corner guy. The perfect player to be a glue guy on a scoring line - like Kozlov. I was going to say Dahlen was better defensively, but I was surprised to learn today that he had 7 PP goals scored against him in his entire career. In all honesty, Kozlov/Dahlen is a more appropriate comparison. similar career numbers but the 87-93 period helped Dahlen post bigger numbers. Both good two-way guys. The big difference is playoffs - Dahlen has no cup and weaker playoff numbers. Amonte is one of the best goalscorers in the draft. He's obviously a better player than Dahlen but maybe it's more appropriate to compare to Whitney. Amonte has been top-3 in goals twice; Whitney peaked at 10th. Amonte's playoff numbers are underwhelming but Whitney's manage to be worse, despite the cup. Amonte's preference to score goals will mesh perfectly with Haynes' elite setup ability. And this entire line is speedy.
 
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seventieslord

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Mar 16, 2006
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Regina, SK
Brian Rolston & Mark Osborne: I assume these are both meant to be two-way/defensive lines. Regina's certainly is. Rolston, offensively, is far better than Osborne. He has posted more goals, assists, and points in a much lower-scoring era. His per-game averages in both the regular season and playoffs are better. Defensively, the edge also goes to Rolston. He has been a consistent plus player while Osborne was a consistent minus player. Part of this is due to teams as well, but overpass' adjusted numbers show their contributions to still be at +47 and -42 over their respective careers. Osborne was a decent penalty killer but not to the extent that Rolston is. Rolston is the more experienced penalty killer as well, having killed roughly 35% more penalties over his career (217 career PGA to 160)

Brian Skrudland & Alex Almetov: Almetov is a fantastic defensive forward. So is Skrudland and comparing the two is difficult. If Almetov had been an NHL player, it's feasible to imagine him being a Selke finalist like Skrudland. Could he be a five-time cup finalist and two-time winner? Maybe, maybe not. Skrudland was.

Jimmy Peters & Stu Barnes: Considering the two have almost identical career PPG averages and both were in pretty low-scoring eras, this is a wash offensively. Both had a flash of offensive eliteness, barnes tying for 20th in goals and Peters placing 8th. To barnes' credit, he has been able to maintain his regular season production in the playoffs and Peters hasn't. But as the NY times quotes show, Peters was busy shutting down the Kraut line and the Bentleys en route to three Stanley Cups. there are no such tales of Barnes. As a budget 2nd-liner, I'd take Barnes. To play on a 3rd line, shut down the other team, and win playoff battles, I'd take Peters. But that's no indictment on barnes; he is the quintessential "good guy".

Bob Probert & Eric Vail: Although he fizzled very quickly, there is no question that Vail is the more talented player. Of course, we didn't draft Probert for his skill, though he can play. The biggest difference between the two, and this is beginning to sound like a broken record, is the playoffs. Vail's production drops significantly in the playoffs, Probert's rises significantly. Vail got into 20 playoff games, Probert 81. Vail never had more than 4 points in a playoff, Probert had 7 or more three times, including a memorable 1988 run where he led the Wings in Yzerman's absence.

Syl Apps Jr. & Laurie Boschman: Boschman is the perfect "type" of player for a 4th-liner. He is gritty, good size, defensive-minded, and can provide some offense. With Syl Apps we have found a similar type of player, except that he can provide a lot of offense. Apps put up more points in a lot less games, and was top-10 in assists three times. Boschman's career high of 76 points didn't put him near any leaderboard. Although Apps can play the physical game, Boschman the sparkplug certainly trumps him in this category. And he can fight. As far as playoffs go, Apps did more per-game, but Boschman is a playoff-tested warrior who played, and fought in a lot of series. It's a case of each being better than the other in one area, while the other is no slouch in the area he's beaten in.

Alf Skinner & Bill Fairbairn: It's impossible not to like Fairbairn. he brought a lot to the table. But Skinner brought more. He was frequently among the leaderboards in goals and points in the PCHA and the NHL. I make a point of not giving too much credit to pre-consolidation achievements, and even with adjustments, I have Skinner as a top-20 goalscorer in hockey in five seasons, and top-10 twice. Fairbairn scored some goals but was never a top-20 scorer. Skinner also had two huge playoffs, upstaging Cyclone to win a cup for Toronto, and then nearly willing his team to another cup win in 1921 before the great Jack Darragh took over the game. Despite playing in the days of one total-goals series and a five game cup final, Skinner played in almost as many playoff matchups as Fairbairn, and like Bulldog, managed to maintain his PPG in the tighter checking cup matches throughout his career. Skinner was also a bit of a bulldog himself, being described as "peppery" in "The Trail Of the Stanley Cup" and picking up a fair number of PIMs. His preference to score goals will mesh perfectly with Apps' preference to set them up. This whole line can score and it can battle. Apps' playoff inexperience is offset by his wingmen.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
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Regina, SK
Goaltending & Coaching

Miikka Kiprusoff & Ron Hextall: Both goalies have one Vezina. Both have come painfully close to the cup, backstopping them to the finals before losing a close game 7. Hextall earned a Smythe for his performance, so good for him for that. But Kipper's performance was probably just as strong. Hextall had two other pretty good runs in 1995 and 1996 while Kipper has suffered three consecutive first round defeats, despite standing on his head (.920 and 34.2 shots against per 60 minutes) - In the regular season, Besides his win, Kipper has placed 2nd, 3rd, and 5th for the Vezina and is sure to be a finalist this season too. He is also a two-time Hart candidate. Hextall was 5th for the Vezina once, and never a hart candidate. I believe Hextall is one of the best goalies in this draft. I like Kipper better. And if anyone disagrees, I can't fault them for it, but there's no way Hextall is superior enough to steal this series from our grasp.

Eddie Gerard & Randy Carlyle: Both are two of the best coaches of their generation. At this time, there is no question who accomplished more. Gerard coached for longer, won the same amount of cups, and was a great student of the game. The chart I produced showed that despite having less hall of famers in his lineup, he's been able to win at the same rate as everyone else. Carlyle has a great record so far, but in his entire tenure as coach he has had either Scott Niedermayer or Chris Pronger, or both, as well as a rejuvenated Teemu Selanne - all hall of famers. Could he do it without them?

I'm really glad we found Gerard. Although we were after Boucher or Pilous, now that I have learned about Gerard, I'd feel comfortable putting him up against either of them too. In your preliminary series, your opponent pointed out that he hasn't been around long enough to accomplish enough to get to Babcock's level. Likewise with Gerard's level. The quotes I posted about him certainly indicate that we will be prepared right from the start - there will be no shaking off the rust in game 1.
 

seventieslord

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Mar 16, 2006
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After analyzing the forwards, one thing has really stood out - playoff performance. And I'm not a fan of cup-counting, but when one team's forwards have won 10 cups and the other's have one, that's worth noting. Regina's forwards have been to 20 combined cup finals - SSM's forwards have been to four. This is because SSM's roster is peppered with players with disappointing playoff resumes (Ronty, MacLean, Whitney, Osborne, Vail) and not enough guys who came up big like Gagner did. Regina has plenty of that in Skinner, Payne, Probert, Peters, Kozlov, and don't forget that even though Nilsson has "only" 0.88 playoff PPG, this is the 2nd-highest average in this series, after his linemate, Payne.

It's getting late. I'll post some defense comparisons tomorrow. I really like our defense corps - very balanced. It's really anyone's guess who our #1, 2, and 3 are. I could argue any of them to be our most valuable defenseman. It should come as no surprise that I like our defense corps the best, but there is a lot to like about SSM's defense too.
 
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vancityluongo

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Thanks for coming in to help out, VI. It appears that this series has cooincided with a vacation or family emergency or computer catastrophe of our esteemed opponent. It is only right to come in and state our case - I wouldn't want to receive any votes "just because".

Hey! :D Probably a typo, but it's me, VCL. ;) I know the ever changng avys from Obama to whatever the hell this Nucks board theme is, is confusing, but yeah.

Thanks for making some more comments for us seventies. I think you're right that we seem to have caught our opponents at a bad time - so any other GM's or even outsider posters who would like to comment on this series, it'd be awesome if you did in place of the Soo GM's, so we can have (last minute) fair, unbiased analysis of this series. I'm sure seventies probably feels the same way.
 

seventieslord

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Mar 16, 2006
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Regina, SK
Hey! :D Probably a typo, but it's me, VCL. ;) I know the ever changng avys from Obama to whatever the hell this Nucks board theme is, is confusing, but yeah.

Thanks for making some more comments for us seventies. I think you're right that we seem to have caught our opponents at a bad time - so any other GM's or even outsider posters who would like to comment on this series, it'd be awesome if you did in place of the Soo GM's, so we can have (last minute) fair, unbiased analysis of this series. I'm sure seventies probably feels the same way.

Haha! Yeah, sorry about that. That's my fault. You're right though, part of it is the avatars you guys have used, and that you both start with V. But don't worry, I know the difference between you guys.

I wish I had the time to do a defense comparison just to do this excellent series justice. But I'm leaving work now to go straight out for dinner. Care to whip up a quick comparison, my protege? :P
 

papershoes

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Dec 28, 2007
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Kenora, Ontario
seventies and vcl - you provided some very compelling analysis to what is a fantastic match-up.

my apologies for disappearing - my fiancee flew up to visit me here in nunavut just as the playoffs were getting underway. needless to say, since i hadn't seen her in 4ish months, i haven't had much time for the atd.

you built an excellent team (and one of my favourites) - best of luck.
 

vancityluongo

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seventies and vcl - you provided some very compelling analysis to what is a fantastic match-up.

my apologies for disappearing - my fiancee flew up to visit me here in nunavut just as the playoffs were getting underway. needless to say, since i hadn't seen her in 4ish months, i haven't had much time for the atd.

you built an excellent team (and one of my favourites) - best of luck.

Pfft, you and "your wife visiting" and seventies and his "honeymoon". :sarcasm:

Haha! Yeah, sorry about that. That's my fault. You're right though, part of it is the avatars you guys have used, and that you both start with V. But don't worry, I know the difference between you guys.

I wish I had the time to do a defense comparison just to do this excellent series justice. But I'm leaving work now to go straight out for dinner. Care to whip up a quick comparison, my protege?

lol. It's pretty late now for you Easterners who I'm assuming have already voted, but for the sake of discussion, okay, here's a bit more of an in-depth defense comparison I guess. I'm not all that familiar with some of your guys, so bear with me paper. This "analysis" isn't going to be that great, but I have limited time, so this is off the top of my head.

The top pairing:

Redmond-Beukeboom is a pretty solid top pairing. Redmond seems like a solid offensive guy, a PP QB type. However, from what I know, I wouldn't say he's at all a liability. Beukeboom is of course the beastly, physical team-first kinda guy. I don't remember, but I think he might've had occasional defensive gaffes. Redmond seems like a great partner. We counter that with Wesley, who I see as the glue of our backend. He doesn't specialize in anything, but he has no flaws; whereas a guy like Beukeboom may be looked at as someone who may take stupid penalties at awkward times. Prodger is our offensive go-to guy, and could arguably be called our top defensemen. Fast, physical, and quick hands, I'd think he's the top offensive defensemen in this series.

The second pairing:

Shmyr is a helluva defenseman. Great defensively, and I can see why he was named your captain. Great work pairing him with the smooth skating Bodger who is a guy I like. For a offensive guy, he had a pretty good defensive game I think. I really like this pairing, although we have a decent couple of our own. Svehla is a tough cookie, and has some offensive game to boot. Not to mention he was quite the playoff performer. Buller played the same way, although his career was more "short and sweet".

The third pairing:

I think this could be called the Greyhounds shutdown pairing? Green is I believe quite the defensive specialist, while Jay-Bo, although a great skater, has a pretty solid defensive game as well. As for us, Brown is our high-risk, offensive puck rusher. He'll have his mistakes, but more often than not, he'll get the puck in the attacking zone. Regher is a ideal partner for him IMO. Not flashy, just solid, this is a guy that is used to playing with guys like Brown. Watching a Flames fan, ******* gets all the attention, however Regehr is the backbone there, and is the reason Celine can play the flashy style he does.

I won't go into the spare guys because I have to leave. And while that whole thing was done in a bit of a rush, I don't want to get into it. So yeah, that's it I guess.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,163
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Regina, SK
Hey paper, thanks for dropping in. Don't mind my teenaged co-GM. he doesn't "get" the whole "fiancee/wife" thing :sarcasm:

(by the way, VCL, you can mention Phaneuf; he's been drafted!)

As for our defense, it is anyone's guess who our best D-man is, and I am not the least bit surprised that we didn't have an all-star defenseman. If you want to choose a Regina player, who do you choose?

- Wesley started off as a offensive defenseman who was responsible defensively, finishing top-15 in scoring among D-men twice, then was traded for three 1st round picks (which speaks volumes) and anchored the Canes blueline for 13 more years, this time as a defensive specialist who could chip in a few points. Along the way he got to four cup finals, finally winning the last time. He was never elite in any area, and arguably was never one of the game's top-15 defensemen (according to Norris voting he wasn't) but his career was so long and consistent and without warts, that he could be our best.

- Or is our best Goldie Prodger? He was noted for his defensive ability, loved the rough stuff, yet managed to really avoid the penalty box, aside from one season. The seasons in which he was exclusively a defenseman are 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, and 1916. In 1915 he managed to finish behind only Cleghorn and Cameron in NHA scoring so the offensive talent was there. In his NHL seasons, he shuttled back and forth between the blueline and forward, so to rank him among defensemen would be unfair. But he was a top-10 goal scorer in the NHL twice. Yes, it was pre-consolidation, but he was also a half-defenseman. Most compelling about Prodger, though, is his uncanny ability to make a team better. Every team he ever joined, got better overall and defensively, and usually quite significantly too.

- Maybe our best is Jeff Brown. It's no secret that he's not a physical or defensive player, but he is IMO the best offensive D-man we have. This is a guy who made the top-15 in D-man scoring eight times, during the heydays of Bourque, Coffey, Housley, Leetch, MacInnis, Wilson, Suter, and Chelios. His PP expertise is tops in this series, although Redmond is close. If points are what you're after, Brown could be our most valuable defenseman.

- A case could be made for Svehla. He's made the top-15 four times despite languishing on mostly poor teams in Florida. It may sound strange to say this, but I think an offensive Slovak defenseman is the toughest defenseman in this series. This guy blocked shots fearlessly, led the NHL in hits, missed only six games in eight seasons, and was called by Doug MacLean and Peter Worrell "the toughest player I ever saw". He took stitches in the face without Novocaine to save time. And he practically threw 235 pounds of Mario Lemieux with one arm. Considering he was great offensively and physically and was never known as a defensive liability, what stopped him from getting into ATD10?

- Robyn Regehr could even be our best. The list of defensemen who have represented Canada, the deepest hockey nation, in two best-on-best tournaments is not very long, and Regehr's on it. He is widely recognized as one of the very best shutdown defensemen in the game. He's very physical, yet not a penalty liability. All he needs is longevity and he's an Adam Foote.

- Then of course there is Hy Buller. He certainly had the highest peak out of all of our defensemen. he was a 2nd team all-star and was top-3 in scoring by defensemen twice, on a poor Rangers team. Buller, by all accounts, was an excellent power play QB, good defensively, and tough. Longevity is the only knock, but it does not appear any that lack of ability kept him out of the NHL. Anti-semitism allegedly kept him off a few rosters, and those that were prepared to take him were denied by Buller's AHL team. The whole time he was in the AHL, he was one of the best there. If you value peak, Buller's your man.

Aside from Brown defensively and Regehr offensively, I wouldn't say any of them are deficient in any area. Brown is the offensive guy. Regehr is the defensive guy. Svehla is the toughest. Prodger is the most versatile and intangible. Buller had the best peak; Wesley was all about Longevity.
 

vancityluongo

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Wow, didn't expect for this one to go only 5.

Congrats to Sault St. Marie, you guys had a solid team. Looking forward to seeing you around.
 

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