ATD Chat Thread XVIII

[Say Hey Kid]

Roy couldn't carry Price's sliders now, let alone during his peak. This is all historian bias. Not sure why we can't admit the obvious. ...

What's next? The great Larry Robinson couldn't carry Darnell Nurse's jock strap? I may have to watch the first round to see if you take Price.

 

[Professor What]

I'm someone who thinks that had Lemieux been healthy, he likely would have ended up ahead of Gretzky. But the fact is, he wasn't, and I don't believe he did. In reality, size does matter. Lemieux had that, where Gretzky didn't. But, if you can't stay healthy, size fails to manifest its reward. I'm not talking about something like cancer here. That can strike anyone. But Lemieux didn't seem to be able to hold up to the physical aspect of the game the way he might have been expected to.

At the end of the day, the point for me is that Gretzky milked the most out of his abilities, and Lemieux didn't. I think it's entirely debatable as to who had the better tool kit, but no matter who's was better, it's close enough that Gretzky's far superior execution of his kit means that he's the clear winner between the two of them in my mind.

As for Roy vs. Price? I think it's worth mentioning that Roy finished 7th on the board's top 100 players list. While that's a bit high for my taste, it's far from unreasonable. Price is up for discussion in the 181-185 range right now. My gut says he's probably going to make it in there. Again, while I'm not as high on him, I'm not going to say it's absurd either. But basically, we're looking at a gap of ~175 spots between the two of them, assuming Price goes in now. There's plenty of room for disagreement among people about how players rank, but there are enough very smart people on this board that have been involved in those projects (not trying to lift myself to that status, but I've been working with some very smart people in the top 200 project), and it's totally inconceivable to me that those folks are going to miss something that badly. Price over Roy is a total non-starter.

 

[tinyzombies]

I'm someone who thinks that had Lemieux been healthy, he likely would have ended up ahead of Gretzky. But the fact is, he wasn't, and I don't believe he did. In reality, size does matter. Lemieux had that, where Gretzky didn't. But, if you can't stay healthy, size fails to manifest its reward. I'm not talking about something like cancer here. That can strike anyone. But Lemieux didn't seem to be able to hold up to the physical aspect of the game the way he might have been expected to.

At the end of the day, the point for me is that Gretzky milked the most out of his abilities, and Lemieux didn't. I think it's entirely debatable as to who had the better tool kit, but no matter who's was better, it's close enough that Gretzky's far superior execution of his kit means that he's the clear winner between the two of them in my mind.

As for Roy vs. Price? I think it's worth mentioning that Roy finished 7th on the board's top 100 players list. While that's a bit high for my taste, it's far from unreasonable. Price is up for discussion in the 181-185 range right now. My gut says he's probably going to make it in there. Again, while I'm not as high on him, I'm not going to say it's absurd either. But basically, we're looking at a gap of ~175 spots between the two of them, assuming Price goes in now. There's plenty of room for disagreement among people about how players rank, but there are enough very smart people on this board that have been involved in those projects (not trying to lift myself to that status, but I've been working with some very smart people in the top 200 project), and it's totally inconceivable to me that those folks are going to miss something that badly. Price over Roy is a total non-starter.

Once again, you are distorting what I said. Mano-a-mano Price is head and shoulders the better goalie, I'm not talking about numbers against your peers, and Price has some of those too without the luxury of playing on a contender even once. And once again, this is something Gretzky says all the time- the players are bigger, stronger faster now. And I would add vastly more skilled. And the secondary players are more intelligent and FAR more talented than the secondary players of yesteryear, which makes the jobs of the elite players even harder.

 

[Professor What]

Once again, you are distorting what I said. Mano-a-mano Price is head and shoulders the better goalie, I'm not talking about numbers against your peers, and Price has some of those too without the luxury of playing on a contender even once.

Unless I'm horribly misunderstanding what you're saying, we're not looking at it differently, and I'm not distorting anything. I'm looking at it as a matter of individual performance, independent of teams. I think that's what you're doing too. I just happen to think that you're very wrong, and I'm not about to budge from it being a non-starter. I'm not trying to be rude, I just don't see any case whatsoever.

 

[VanIslander]

Lemieux was slow and was at times intimidated.

Gretzky wasn't slow but he wasn't fast and he was always smaller than his rivals, all the way back in his youth (the genius adaptation of necessity: he was elusive, hyper-aware).

Gretzky shows a nimble David defeats Goliath ... how often? ... 7 consecutive Hart trophies by age 26. (Oh, and.ge wasn't finished).

 

[Professor What]

Lemieux was slow and was at times intimidated.

Gretzky wasn't slow but he wasn't fast and he was always smaller than his rivals, all the way back in his youth (the genius adaptation of necessity: he was elusive, hyper-aware).

Gretzky shows a nimble David defeats Goliath ... how often? ... 7 consecutive Hart trophies by age 26. (Oh, and.ge wasn't finished).

If we're ranking players all-time, I take Orr and Howe, in that order over Gretzky. I just think they had aspects of their games that Gretzky didn't have, and as such, they deserve the higher rating. BUT, if we're talking about who amazes me the most by what he did as compared to what he probably should have been able to do, I'm taking Gretzky eight days a week and twice on whatever the eighth day is. I like the bolded phrase very much.

 

[Johnny Engine]

I thought you'd all like to know that I got down a rabbit hole looking at game logs from Alexei Kovalev's 1994 season where he somehowracked up 154 penalty minutes and finished ahead of teammates Kocur and Kypreos in that regard.

My favourite part was where he got thrown out of 2 different games for high sticking in the space of November 6-8, 1993.

The kind of toughness that wins cups right there, fellas.

 

[The Macho King]

If we're ranking players all-time, I take Orr and Howe, in that order over Gretzky. I just think they had aspects of their games that Gretzky didn't have, and as such, they deserve the higher rating. BUT, if we're talking about who amazes me the most by what he did as compared to what he probably should have been able to do, I'm taking Gretzky eight days a week and twice on whatever the eighth day is. I like the bolded phrase very much.

I just don't see an argument for Howe over 99. Yeah tough yeah two way or whatever, but only 4 Cups in a 6 team league - all at the beginning of his career - I think Wayne is more impressive.

Orr is interesting and I have time for that argument. Ultimately his short career works against him but man his peak is absolutely nuts.

 

[Professor What]

I just don't see an argument for Howe over 99. Yeah tough yeah two way or whatever, but only 4 Cups in a 6 team league - all at the beginning of his career - I think Wayne is more impressive.

Orr is interesting and I have time for that argument. Ultimately his short career works against him but man his peak is absolutely nuts.

I think there's a case for those three in any order. But Howe walks away from Gretzky when talking about defense and physical play. There's an argument for Gretzky regarding defense in saying that he tilted the ice so greatly on offense that it didn't matter, but Howe did too, and he played "real" defense on top of it. I can't really buy the Cups criticism fully because the teams that existed were simply stacked. What would the doormat New York Rangers teams of the O6 era look like in the post-expansion era? Gretzky's Oilers in the 80s played in a league that was much watered-down from Howe's best years. But ultimately, if you give me a team of five Howes and a goalie and put them agaisnt five Gretzkys and a goalie, I'm taking Gordie every single time without any question. I don't worry about Howe anywhere on the ice, and I can't say that about Gretzky.

Orr is the ultimate peak vs longevity question. Give him a full-length,healthy career, and I think it's likely beyond question that he'd be the nearly universally accepted GOAT -- probably even more definitively than Gretzky is right now, if it weren't for stat obsession.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Thanks to all the "spread-necks" here in Alberta, we're opening vaccination appointments for everyone 12+ on Monday.

Good news, but quite ashamed in my fellow Albertans

Eventually, vaccination will likely be required to fly or to attend school. Maybe to attend very large indoor events. Suddenly a lot of the hesitation will go away...

I've been vaccinated for a little while through my job, but the instant my girlfriend became eligible, I camped out on the internet refreshing all the sites and got her a same-day appointment. She's officially "fully vaccinated" as of today... and on Friday we are flying for the first time since the pandemic began.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

I think there will be lawsuits and some will claim religious freedom.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Broadway finally has a reopening date (in Sept), and it looks like theatres will require proof of either vaccination or a negative test result.

 

[VanIslander]

Gordie was top 5 in NHL scoring for 20 consecutive years while not playing a Marleau-like non-physical game.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I thought you'd all like to know that I got down a rabbit hole looking at game logs from Alexei Kovalev's 1994 season where he somehowracked up 154 penalty minutes and finished ahead of teammates Kocur and Kypreos in that regard.

My favourite part was where he got thrown out of 2 different games for high sticking in the space of November 6-8, 1993.

The kind of toughness that wins cups right there, fellas.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Also featuring noted rage monsters Tomas Kaberle, Kyle Wellwood and Nik Antropov.
IIRC, Sundin was injured at some point early in 06/07 and 16, 42 and 80 was their first line for the time being. Not awesome forward depth there, when you consider that a Matthews-less Leafs team this year could go back to the Hyman-Tavares-Marner line that combined for 223 points in 18/19.
It's kind of ironic that when Kovalev, a strong and skilled winger, got bumped, poked and prodded so much he just hulked out and tried to end a guy, nobody was calling it "old time hockey", despite the shades of Bob Dill evident in that sequence.
Here would be the time to get going about anti-Russian bias, but I think it's maybe more pertinent that for a lot of people "old time hockey" just means the way the game was played in the 1980s.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Gordie was top 5 in NHL scoring for 20 consecutive years while not playing a Marleau-like non-physical game.

It is remarkable. Even if you remove the consecutive he and Gretzky are the only ones over 9.

 

[The Macho King]

Gordie was top 5 in NHL scoring for 20 consecutive years while not playing a Marleau-like non-physical game.

Yeah - but context is important. He was the best player on his team that entire time, and in a six team league, being the best player on a team that was always at least good (at forward) gives you quite the leg up on becoming a top 5 scorer in a league with six teams (especially when the Bruins, Blackhawks, and Rangers were at various stages of irrelevancy throughout that period generally leaving us with 4 quality teams at any one time).

Top 5 in the O6 era is basically just the benchmark of an elite scorer. While this is an oversimplification, from a numbers perspective it's similar to being a top 23 scorer now. Obviously talent dilution makes that comparison fall apart if you look at it too closely, but I do think it's a fair point to consider. Obviously his longevity is impressive - that's why he's consensus Big 4. But within the Big 4, that particular fact doesn't impress me terribly much. I'm more impressed by his peak in ranking him (which is incredibly underrated because the raw totals don't seem high after the expansion era).

 

[Say Hey Kid]

The 5 Gretzky argument was so dumb and had no connection to reality. Also, he's the best passer ever by far and would annilate the other clone team easily.

 

[Professor What]

The 5 Gretzky argument was so dumb and had no connection to reality. Also, he's the best passer ever by far and would annilate the other clone team easily.

How was it dumb? The point was that I'd much more completely trust Howe at any position than Gretzky. I really think that should have been obvious, and I fully stand by it. I'd say the same thing about a team of Orrs. Unrealistic? Sure. Any clone team is. But to make a point? I think it's completely valid to demonstrate the versatility. At the level of the players we're talking about, every little detail like that matters. And a team of Gretzkys would be so thoroughly dominated physically by a team of Howes that there's no way they'd anihilate them.

 

[tinyzombies]

Unless I'm horribly misunderstanding what you're saying, we're not looking at it differently, and I'm not distorting anything. I'm looking at it as a matter of individual performance, independent of teams. I think that's what you're doing too. I just happen to think that you're very wrong, and I'm not about to budge from it being a non-starter. I'm not trying to be rude, I just don't see any case whatsoever.

Go back and look at the dogcrap goaltending in the 80s and 90s again to refresh your memory, and Roy is no innocent. And those shooters don't hold a candle to today's shooters - and all through the lineup too. It's not even close.

 

[tinyzombies]

Lemieux was slow and was at times intimidated.

Gretzky wasn't slow but he wasn't fast and he was always smaller than his rivals, all the way back in his youth (the genius adaptation of necessity: he was elusive, hyper-aware).

Gretzky shows a nimble David defeats Goliath ... how often? ... 7 consecutive Hart trophies by age 26. (Oh, and.ge wasn't finished).

You've never seen Mario while sitting on the glass I guess. He was fast, he just took few strides.

 

[ted2019]

Gordie was top 5 in NHL scoring for 20 consecutive years while not playing a Marleau-like non-physical game.

Thanks for telling everyone something that they didn't know.

 

[tinyzombies]

Victoria Cougars Hockey T-shirt（#547)

 

[tinyzombies]

How many points would McDavid score in the 80s? We can use VsX to reverse calculate, no?

 

[Johnny Engine]

Yes, you could use it to calculate how much a player with an identical season-to-season level of dominance over a typical #2 would score in the 80s.

Any model purporting to do much more than that, I'd be very suspicious of.