ATD 2011 Lineup Advice Thread II

[Sturminator]

In case anyone was wondering, here is a scoring breakdown of Paul Coffey vs Red Kelly. I break it off at the top seven seasons because Kelly only had seven significant offensive seasons as a defenseman.

Paul Coffey: 100 [-63] - 87
Paul Coffey: 98 [-56] - 87
Paul Coffey: 83 [16] - 85
Paul Coffey: 90 [-72] - 76
Paul Coffey: 80 [-19] - 76
Red Kelly: 82 [-59] - 70
Paul Coffey: 71 [-22] - 67
Red Kelly: 73 [-65] - 60
Paul Coffey: 77 [-104] - 56
Red Kelly: 64 [-54] - 53
Red Kelly: 61 [-47] - 52
Red Kelly: 63 [-58] - 51
Red Kelly: 68 [-83] - 51
Red Kelly: 58 [-95] - 39

The comparison is actually not as close as I had expected. The offensive gap between Coffey and Kelly is likely greater than the gap between Kelly and the next best offensive defenseman (Potvin?, Bourque?, Shore?, Clancy?), and this is completely ignoring the time Kelly spent at left wing.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm not surprises the gap is that high. It's partly explained by the fact that kelly couldn't play like Coffey in a pre-Orr world, but I've always thought Coffey was quite a bit better offensively than kelly.

 

[seventieslord]

The difference in offense in favor of Coffey is obviously greater than the difference in D.

The next question then becomes - do we weigh offense and defense as equal for defensemen? Most of us weigh defense more heavily - to some amount.

Good point, it's not as easy as just saying someone's offensive edge is greater than the other's defensive edge.

I'm not surprises the gap is that high. It's partly explained by the fact that kelly couldn't play like Coffey in a pre-Orr world, but I've always thought Coffey was quite a bit better offensively than kelly.

me too, I see it as Orr>>>>>Coffey>>>Kelly>(Clancy, Shore, Bourque, etc)

 

[Sturminator]

me too, I see it as Orr>>>>>Coffey>>>Kelly>(Clancy, Shore, Bourque, etc)

Yep...I think you've got it. Understanding how Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey fit into hockey history means understanding how large those gaps really are - something that gets badly glossed over by your standard "Greatest Offensive Defenseman" list (1. Orr 2. Coffey 3. Kelly 4. Somebody, etc.). The gaps from 1st to 2nd and from 2nd to 3rd are large.

 

[Sturminator]

Here is a complete comparison of Orr, Coffey and Kelly all together, which I think pretty well represents the offensive differences at the top. Kelly is basically the start of "the field" among the all-time greatest offensive defensemen (broken off at top-6 here as Orr had a six season offensive peak):

Bobby Orr: 121 [21] - 125
Bobby Orr: 106 [6] - 107
Bobby Orr: 100 [-9] - 98
Bobby Orr: 100 [-14] - 97
Bobby Orr: 100 [-19] - 96
Bobby Orr: 97 [-29] - 91
Paul Coffey: 100 [-63] - 87
Paul Coffey: 98 [-56] - 87
Paul Coffey: 83 [16] - 85
Paul Coffey: 90 [-72] - 76
Paul Coffey: 80 [-19] - 76
Red Kelly: 82 [-59] - 70
Paul Coffey: 71 [-22] - 67
Red Kelly: 73 [-65] - 60
Red Kelly: 64 [-54] - 53
Red Kelly: 61 [-47] - 52
Red Kelly: 63 [-58] - 51
Red Kelly: 68 [-83] - 51

- average seasonal gap between Orr and Coffey over this period: 22.67

- average seasonal gap between Coffey and Kelly over this period: 23.50

So the gaps from Orr to Coffey and from Coffey to Kelly end up being roughly the same. Overall, I think Coffey moves up somewhat with respect to the other two owing to his longevity relative to Orr (the dropoff from Bobby's 6th to 7th best offensive seasons is enormous) and to Kelly's time at left wing (Coffey has greater longevity than Kelly as a defenseman, but I don't think it's fair to hold it against Kelly that he was converted to center in Toronto). Ultimately, it looks like Coffey is a bit closer to Orr than Kelly is to Coffey, which is rather surprising.

It's interesting to see it quantified like this, and really it's a remarkably even descent through the numbers with the ends of each players' peak touching nicely (Orr's weakest peak season is comparable to Coffey's best and Coffey's weakest is comparable to Kelly's best).

 

[vecens24]

That's an amazing breakdown of Coffey. Him not going first round in a 40 team draft is kind of incredible I thought beforehand, now I know it.

 

[Sturminator]

I'm not surprises the gap is that high. It's partly explained by the fact that kelly couldn't play like Coffey in a pre-Orr world...

Of course, this factor has surely helped Kelly's defensive reputation with respect to Coffey.

 

[markrander87]

I'm sorry but I guess I have to be the one who says it....If I did draft a team with Paul Coffey as my number 1, i'd sure as hell want to have a better starter than Tom Barrasso.

 

[Sturminator]

I'm sorry but I guess I have to be the one who says it....If I did draft a team with Paul Coffey as my number 1, i'd sure as hell want to have a better starter than Tom Barrasso.

Barrasso won a Cup with Paul Coffey as his #1 defenseman. Coffey's also got an elite defensive partner covering for him in Jacques Laperriere, which I consider more important than the goalie.

Let's not overstate the point here, mark. Paul Coffey's teams are I guess pretty much destined to play run and gun hockey by virtue of having him as their #1 defenseman, but he's not so weak defensively that you have to build a fortress around him. Tom Barrasso is actually one of the goalies in this thing who is most in his element when handling a heavy load of shots against. Tommy's best years were behind a run and gun team.

 

[arrbez]

Barrasso won a Cup with Paul Coffey as his #1 defenseman.

lies! all lies!

 

[EagleBelfour]

I m a stickler to NHL rules, so I only list 2 As. In the past, GMs listed 3 because it was allowed on junior. Last time, VI specifically said you needed a C and two As. In guess nobody really talked about it his time.

I always gave 1 C's and 3 A's since I'm in those drafts. I don't know if we ever made a ruling on this or if it even matter. Unless you have a crybaby that will play less effectively without a letter, I don't see a big deal behind this.

 

[Leafs Forever]

PP1: Babe Siebert-Nels Stewart-Martin St.Louis-Pierre Pilote-Art Ross
PP2: Bernie Nicholls-Bernie Morris-Dave Taylor-Ron Francis-Doug Barkley

PK1: Charlie Burns-Eric Nesterenko-Brian Engblom- Ed Van Impe
PK2: Ron Francis-Martin St. Louis-Babe Siebert-Pierre Pilote
PK3: Bernie Nicholls-Percy Galbraith-Brian Engblom-Ed Van Impe

So I got a lot of people chiming in on my special teams, figured I'd bring it back here on deciding how to make them the best possible.

Other guys who could go in: Gerard Gallant, Harry Watson.

First point: I think people seem to like replacing Siebert for Engblom on the PK, and I agree with it. It might detract from my PP a bit though.

Choice 1: Switch Francis with Siebert on the PP, switch Siebert with Engblom on the PK.

Choice 2: Replace Siebert with Taylor on the PP, who is also a digger.

Choice 3: Keep it as is.

Choice 4: Anything someone thinks might be better.

Second point: Art Ross on the PK- he's actually fairly substantied defensively, and I think he might be good to replace Pilote on the PK, though I'd like more views on it- should I swap them? I could also swap him with Engblom, though I doubt he's a better PKer.

Third Point: Since I receieved a complaint on it; is putting Francis and St. Louis (my second and third best forwards) on the second PK unit pushing them too hard? I can't really change Francis, but would swapping Galbraith with St. Louis on the PK be a good idea?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

LF, it would be easier to answer ifnyou did an ice time chart. Heh. I see no improvement swapping pilote out for Ross. Pilote should see at least as many minutes as seibert I think.

 

[Leafs Forever]

LF, it would be easier to answer ifnyou did an ice time chart. Heh. I see no improvement swapping pilote out for Ross. Pilote should see at least as many minutes as seibert I think.

I could argue it'd be easier to make an ice-time chart if I knew what my special teams were going to be

Not sure where to start with that.

 

[seventieslord]

Here is a complete comparison of Orr, Coffey and Kelly all together, which I think pretty well represents the offensive differences at the top. Kelly is basically the start of "the field" among the all-time greatest offensive defensemen (broken off at top-6 here as Orr had a six season offensive peak):

Bobby Orr: 121 [21] - 125
Bobby Orr: 106 [6] - 107
Bobby Orr: 100 [-9] - 98
Bobby Orr: 100 [-14] - 97
Bobby Orr: 100 [-19] - 96
Bobby Orr: 97 [-29] - 91
Paul Coffey: 100 [-63] - 87
Paul Coffey: 98 [-56] - 87
Paul Coffey: 83 [16] - 85
Paul Coffey: 90 [-72] - 76
Paul Coffey: 80 [-19] - 76
Red Kelly: 82 [-59] - 70
Paul Coffey: 71 [-22] - 67
Red Kelly: 73 [-65] - 60
Red Kelly: 64 [-54] - 53
Red Kelly: 61 [-47] - 52
Red Kelly: 63 [-58] - 51
Red Kelly: 68 [-83] - 51

- average seasonal gap between Orr and Coffey over this period: 22.67

- average seasonal gap between Coffey and Kelly over this period: 23.50

So the gaps from Orr to Coffey and from Coffey to Kelly end up being roughly the same. Overall, I think Coffey moves up somewhat with respect to the other two owing to his longevity relative to Orr (the dropoff from Bobby's 6th to 7th best offensive seasons is enormous) and to Kelly's time at left wing (Coffey has greater longevity than Kelly as a defenseman, but I don't think it's fair to hold it against Kelly that he was converted to center in Toronto). Ultimately, it looks like Coffey is a bit closer to Orr than Kelly is to Coffey, which is rather surprising.

It's interesting to see it quantified like this, and really it's a remarkably even descent through the numbers with the ends of each players' peak touching nicely (Orr's weakest peak season is comparable to Coffey's best and Coffey's weakest is comparable to Kelly's best).

it really is amazing how basically all of Orr's best are better than all of Coffey's best, and same with Coffey vs. Kelly.

Excitement over Coffey's results in this are needs to be tempered with a reminder that he was on the greates offensive powerhouse team of all-time, but I don't think that takes away from this enough that you could call him anything but far and away the 2nd best offensive defenseman of all-time.

I always gave 1 C's and 3 A's since I'm in those drafts. I don't know if we ever made a ruling on this or if it even matter. Unless you have a crybaby that will play less effectively without a letter, I don't see a big deal behind this.

I was going with 2 because I thought that was the standard. I'd love to have 3. But, should we?

 

[MXD]

Third Point: Since I receieved a complaint on it; is putting Francis and St. Louis (my second and third best forwards) on the second PK unit pushing them too hard? I can't really change Francis, but would swapping Galbraith with St. Louis on the PK be a good idea?

Definitely. Galbraith is golden defensively, but might just be the worst offensive forward of the draft, so if he ends up playing 6 minutes a game (all on the PK), you'd lose nothing.

And St-Louis already plays a lot.

 

[Sturminator]

Excitement over Coffey's results in this are needs to be tempered with a reminder that he was on the greates offensive powerhouse team of all-time, but I don't think that takes away from this enough that you could call him anything but far and away the 2nd best offensive defenseman of all-time.

Coffey's third best offensive season in the above was actually his Norris year in Detroit, and his 5th and 6th best were in Pittsburgh in seasons when Lemieux was hurt (thus the small VsNext differences). It is not the case that Coffey was only offensively dominant behind superstar forwards. At any rate, I think incorporating VsNext numbers (with a straight-up comparison to Gretzky and Lemieux's scoring therefore built in) pretty well corrects for what you're talking about - that's the entire point of the VsNext mechanic. Hell, Coffey finished 6th in NHL scoring in 1988-89 and that season of his doesn't even make his top-6 because Lemieux/Gretzky are #1/#2 in scoring and Lemieux had 199 points! I think Paul Coffey has been punished enough for playing with great teammates by the VsNext numbers. Punishing him again is inappropriate.

Orr and Kelly also played on great offensive teams. We all know about Bobby's Bruins, but Kelly's Wings placed 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd in league GF over the course of his six year offensive peak, and regularly placed two players in the top-5 in points (Howe and Lindsay). Increasing the multiplier on the VsNext numbers (which would theoretically be the best way to punish Coffey for playing in Edmonton/Pittsburgh) would actually drive Coffey and Kelly further apart in the analysis. Relative to his own teammates, Coffey was less than the second best scorer on his team exactly once (1984-85 - Kurri beat him by 15 points or so) during his offensive prime, while Kelly was better than Detroit's fourth best (generally behind the whole Production Line) only once during his prime. As VsNext only compares production to the best scorer (or second best in the case that the player in question is the team's leading scorer), it likely doesn't punish Kelly enough for being mostly a fourth wheel offensively. Now that I look at it...I may have done Red Kelly a rather big favor in this analysis. He had many more scorers better than him in Detroit than Coffey ever had during his prime. The gap between them is likely a good bit wider than even the above numbers portray.

But anyway, you basically agree that he's far and away better than Kelly offensively, so there's no need to quibble over details.

 

[Leafs Forever]

Somehwat on the Coffey topic: Considering dominance, it would be reasonable to remove him in % comparisons for defensemen like some do with Gretzky and Lemieux for forwards, correct?

 

[Sturminator]

Somehwat on the Coffey topic: Considering dominance, it would be reasonable to remove him in % comparisons for defensemen like some do with Gretzky and Lemieux for forwards, correct?

I dunno. I generally only remove one of Gretzky and Lemieux when they appear #1 / #2 on the leaderboard, because then the Vs2 numbers end up being brutal for basically everyone. In this case, I just compare percentages to the 3rd best scorer and leave it at that.

Coffey was typically alone far out ahead in terms of defenseman scoring at his peak, and as the appropriate comparison would be to the #2 scorer among D, anyway, I think Coffey's presence is pretty much already accounted for. The whole point of the comparison vs the #2 scorer in a given scenario is to weed out the possibility of a single high-end outlier polluting the data. Coffey ends up being that outlier most of the time, but it's not really a Gretzky/Lemieux situation, because Coffey is alone.

 

[Leafs Forever]

Decided to make one of these minute charts. Does this look reasonable:

Forwards

Name|ES|PP|SH|Total
Stewart|15|4|0|19
Francis|15|2|2.5|19.5
Taylor|15|3|0|18
Watson|13|0|0|13
Morris|13|3|0|16
St.Louis|13|4|1.5|18.5
Nesterenko|10|0|3|13
Burns|9|0|3|12
Galbraith|9|0|2.5|11.5
Nicholls|10|3|0|13
Gallant|8|0|0|8
Labine|8|0|0|8

Defensemen

Name|ES|PP|SH|Total
Pilote|20|5|0|25
Siebert|17|4|3|24
Ross|16.5|5|0|22.5
Van Impe|14.5|0|5|19.5
Engblom|12|0|4|17
Barkley|12|2|0|14

Pilote-Siebert: 17 Mins
Ross-Van Impe: 14 mins
Engblom-Barkley: 12 mins
Pilote-Ross: 2.5 mins
Pilote-Impe: 0.5 min

Galbraith-Burns-Nesterenko: 8 mins
Galbraith-Nicholls-Nesterenko: 1 min
Burns-Nicholls-Nesterenko: 1 min

Special Teams:
PP1: Babe Siebert-Nels Stewart-Martin St.Louis-Pierre Pilote-Art Ross
PP2: Bernie Nicholls-Bernie Morris-Dave Taylor-Ron Francis-Doug Barkley

PK1: Charlie Burns-Eric Nesterenko-Babe Siebert- Ed Van Impe
PK2: Percy Galbraith-Ron Francis-Brian Engblom-Pierre Pilote
PK3: Bernie Nicholls-Martin St. Louis-Brian Engblom-Ed Van Impe

Tried to scale back Siebert on ES mins so he could play top special teams, though can't quite get him out there for a more ideal PK time.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm not checking to see if those minutes add up, but nothing really seems out of line.