Blue Jays Discussion: At least part of the system is winning (Vancouver Canadians NWL champs)

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Leafin

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Apr 2, 2009
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20yrs of no playoffs - not even september playoff races - makes one appreciate a playoff team.

besides, who cares about payroll committments to older players in later years when we're just going to sign crappy old vets every year with that "savings" anyways? especially when all those contracts will be done by the time the next core is ready to contend?

I agree with this to a degree. This is why the Donaldson scenario will be interesting to watch. Martin, Tulo, Morales, Estrada, Happ will all expire in the next few seasons. Most of that money will be used to resign Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna but at the moment we have little else we'll be paying.
 

TF97

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Jul 4, 2010
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Good job locking Marco up for another year. $13M is a fair price as well. If they can pick up another starter in free agency, the rotation will be looking very nice heading into 2018.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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20yrs of no playoffs - not even september playoff races - makes one appreciate a playoff team.

besides, who cares about payroll committments to older players in later years when we're just going to sign crappy old vets every year with that "savings" anyways? especially when all those contracts will be done by the time the next core is ready to contend?

Your scenario includes at least $76.5 million in commitments during the 2019 season to four players who have been worth a combined 6.8 fWAR in 2017. They've all shown some signs of decline in the last year or two, and at that point they'll be between 33 and 36 years old.

Can you afford to even consider a Donaldson extension in that scenario? $100 million+ for five players over 33? With a third year arb salary to Stroman and second year for Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, Travis, etc.? You're up around $150 million while missing three starters, a couple position players, a bench, and a bullpen, and most of that $150 million is going to players who project to be well below league average at that point. Yes, things would mostly start to clear up after 2019, but dear god that 2019 season would be a disaster.

I'm comfortable with the direction the team is heading. I think they're in a position where they can look at a Donaldson extension (along with Sanchez and Stroman) and see how they fit with the future core because, while they have two expensive players going forward, they can work around them fairly easily (as opposed to having 4+ expensive players who are nowhere close to living up to their salary).
 

zeke

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Source: Marco Estrada, #BlueJays in agreement on one-year, $13 million contract. @MLB @MLBNetwork

value is there, of course. but i sure hope 35yr old estrada is better than 34yr old estrada.
 

Longshot

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Jul 2, 2008
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I'm happy with the Estrada deal. It's a contract that can be traded if things go south next year and gives them a solid front four (assuming good health from Sanchez) in the rotation going into next year.

There is really no downside to the move. It's nice to have it taken care of and in the bank going into the winter.
 

Discoverer

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yeah, we might even miss the playoffs in 2019 in that scenario!

Given the quality of the expensive players on that roster and the amount of money available to improve it, missing the playoffs would be all but guaranteed.
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Fyi Jays tickets are dirt cheap tonight and tomorrow. I just got 2 aisle tickets 27 rows behind the vistors dugout for $11CDN each.
 

GoonieFace

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Jun 24, 2013
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I still think that trading Donaldson is the better course of action, rather than a 5 year extension. Even with Marco back, it doesn't mean they are going to try to be competitive next year.

They can certainly be competitive next year. Taking into account the following:

Injuries to Sanchez, Tulo, Donaldson, Happ, Martin, Travis etc. Staying even somewhat healthy gives them a shot.

Osuna not blowing the most saves in baseball, cut out half of those and thats an extra 5-6 wins.

Replacing Bautista/Pearce with Hernandez and Alford or player via trade or free agency will be a potential boost. Not having those 2 guys in the field so much will help. Pearce can go back to rotational player where he is better suited.

Adding some depth to the infield or a starting 2B will also help, to make sure we are ready for the inevitable Travis injury.

This team is not far off contending for at least a wild card next year. A few smart additions and we are back in the thick of things.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
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I still think that trading Donaldson is the better course of action, rather than a 5 year extension. Even with Marco back, it doesn't mean they are going to try to be competitive next year.

1. What leads you to believe they are not going to try to be competitive in 2018?
2. What is the likelihood of getting player(s) back in trade whose production will match age 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36 Donaldson?
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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I prefer Biagini in the pen but it looks like he will at least battle for the 5th spot or be the 6th starter in AAA. Ideally you get a young player or someone with control and upside to take the 5th spot in hopes he grows as a contributor long term.

But if Anderson finishes his last 3 starts strong then i dont mind him back on a 1 year deal around 5M to be the 5th starter. Biagini, Rowley and Borucki are ready in AAA if/when he gets hurt.

Would also be interested in sign Liriano for the pen. He can fill many roles; 1st would be LOOGY but if you need him to be a swingman/emergency starter then he can do that too. Again 1 year at 4-5M to be a LOOGY could be possible.

Starting depth could be;

Stroman
Happ
Sanchez
Estrada
Anderson
Biagini
Rowley
Liriano
Borucki

Which is a lot better than our depth after our top 5 in 2017 that consisted of Latos, Lawrence, Bolsinger, Biagini bouncing around and Rowley.
 

Gargyn

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Oct 19, 2006
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They can certainly be competitive next year. Taking into account the following:

Injuries to Sanchez, Tulo, Donaldson, Happ, Martin, Travis etc. Staying even somewhat healthy gives them a shot.

Osuna not blowing the most saves in baseball, cut out half of those and thats an extra 5-6 wins.

Replacing Bautista/Pearce with Hernandez and Alford or player via trade or free agency will be a potential boost. Not having those 2 guys in the field so much will help. Pearce can go back to rotational player where he is better suited.

Adding some depth to the infield or a starting 2B will also help, to make sure we are ready for the inevitable Travis injury.

This team is not far off contending for at least a wild card next year. A few smart additions and we are back in the thick of things.
What makes you think guys like Tulo, Martin and Travis, who get injured every year, won't be injured again? And what's going to change with Osuna? I just see the same thing every year in all sports...well if we didn't have injuries, etc for excuses. Fact is Toronto will be even older, so they will get more injuries. They have a mediocre roster when healthy so not sure why people think they'll have a chance next season. They would get a huge haul for Donaldson. Get prospects who's timeline lines up with Guerrero and Bichette. Make a few other moves to compete in 2-3 years. Martin and Tulo are untradeable but still decent when they're in the lineup. Get some exciting prospects and still field an entertaining team in the short term but realize the team realistically isn't competing next season.
 
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