Blue Jays Discussion: At least part of the system is winning (Vancouver Canadians NWL champs)

[Discoverer]

Again, the point here is not to pick apart particular signings or non-signings - just to illustrate the hairswidth there can be between contending and "not close".

Is signing two of the biggest free agent names available and making an additional $100 million in commitments really a "hairs width" though?

 

[Discoverer]

Honestly, the next three/four months will do a lot to tell me how I feel about this year.

If they attempt to overwrite some of the bad moves this year, keep the payroll up and legitimately try to win, then good on them and they just messed up this year. And if it doesn't work then screw it just really blow it up and build around Guerrero/Bichette/Stroman

If they decide this team doesn't have it anymore, trade some of the guys who probably are going to decrease in value over the next couple of years (Donaldson, Happ, Pillar), play the kids and aim to quickly retool for a year and a ridiculous FA class after 2018, I'm also fine with that.

If they make a half-assed effort a la the JP Ricciardi days which is one of those 'if everything breaks right, and our historically injured players don't get hurt and our declining players revert to their norms from three years ago,' then screw it all they may as well have just blown it up last November.

Basically, yeah. Donaldson complicates it a bit for me, though, because the upcoming new core is now close enough that, even if they're not going big in 2018, I would be happy to see them work out an extension to keep him around for a few years of his decline while Guerrero/Bichette/Alford/Jansen/etc. start to emerge.

Guerrero is going to be the best hitter in baseball at some point regardless, but if you think Donaldson can maintain anything close to what he's done the last couple of years that would be a hell of a lineup to put together.

 

[theaub]

The optimal move is trading him in the offseason, re-tooling in 2018 and then signing him to a FA deal.

Of course, those things work out as planned about 0% of the time.

 

[zeke]

Is signing two of the biggest free agent names available and making an additional $100 million in commitments really a "hairs width" though?

yeah, spending the same payroll on better and younger FAs is.

 

[Kurtz]

Is it fair to say that the only clearly unacceptable move with Donaldson is to lose him to free agency?

Re-signing him is justifiable. Trading him in the off-season or deadline is justifiable. But could anyone justify just letting him go next-off season, even if we're in the mix for the wild card near the deadline?

 

[Discoverer]

yeah, spending the same payroll on better and younger FAs is.

Why are you so completely incapable of seeing beyond the current season?

 

[Discoverer]

Is it fair to say that the only clearly unacceptable move with Donaldson is to lose him to free agency?

Re-signing him is justifiable. Trading him in the off-season or deadline is justifiable. But could anyone justify just letting him go next-off season, even if we're in the mix for the wild card near the deadline?

That's the way I see it, too. I would take it a step further and say it's unacceptable to go to arbitration with him since there's pretty much only downside in going into the season with him as a pending free agent. There are ways it can work out, but the risk is just way too high.

Just decide on him this offseason.

 

[Cor]

The Vancouver Canadiens manager got fired?

 

[habamillions]

The Vancouver Canadiens manager got fired?

Dont see that everyday. Wins the championship then gets fired

 

[Muston Atthews]

The Vancouver Canadiens manager got fired?

The league doesn't want any filthy Habs on the team

 

[phillipmike]

Report: Jays nearing an extension with Estrada as per Morsoi

 

[Judas Tavares]

Honestly, the next three/four months will do a lot to tell me how I feel about this year.

If they attempt to overwrite some of the bad moves this year, keep the payroll up and legitimately try to win, then good on them and they just messed up this year. And if it doesn't work then screw it just really blow it up and build around Guerrero/Bichette/Stroman

If they decide this team doesn't have it anymore, trade some of the guys who probably are going to decrease in value over the next couple of years (Donaldson, Happ, Pillar), play the kids and aim to quickly retool for a year and a ridiculous FA class after 2018, I'm also fine with that.

If they make a half-assed effort a la the JP Ricciardi days which is one of those 'if everything breaks right, and our historically injured players don't get hurt and our declining players revert to their norms from three years ago,' then screw it all they may as well have just blown it up last November.

Really don't see any option other than this. They aren't going to sell cause they want butts in the seats. They don't have the prospects to trade for upgrades and I doubt they sign a big ticket.

Basically Shatkins have provided bandaid solutions to an aging core since their time here and nothing suggests next offseason will be any different (some of that is ownership's fault).

 

[theaub]

Really don't see any option other than this. They aren't going to sell cause they want butts in the seats. They don't have the prospects to trade for upgrades and I doubt they sign a big ticket.

Basically Shatkins have provided bandaid solutions since their time here and nothing suggests next offseason will be any different (some of that is ownership's fault).

Deep down we all know its going to happen.

I don't mind this Estrada extension, assuming they go out and get someone above him. A guaranteed 180 IP of mediocre pitching from a #5 starter remains criminally undervalued in baseball.

 

[phillipmike]

Estrada stays true to his word and actually wants to stay in Toronto and doesnt need to go to the market. Wonder if Lacava gets credit for this one.

 

[Woodman19]

Good for Estrada, he's earned it here.

 

[phillipmike]

Apparently it is a 1 year deal.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Apparently it is a 1 year deal.

I'm gonna guess that there will be an option(s) most likely of the team variety.

 

[Leafin]

Good for Estrada. I like him as a rotation piece next season. Now we should go out and sign 1 more starter to solidify that depth. An Alex Cobb/Lance Lynn type would be pretty good.

Any word on the contract details? I wonder if we see a vesting option here or a team option.

 

[phillipmike]

Morsoi is on the Fan.

-Says the Estrada deal could have options.
-He also says he expects the Jays to make a run at McCutchen in the off-season.
-One year deal could set them up to have flexibility to be active in the 2019 free agency though thinks of the available players they would only go after Donaldson.
-Shapiro has a great relationship with Estrada's agent Paul Cohen... also Tulo's agent

 

[canucksfan]

Morsoi is on the Fan.

-Says the Estrada deal could have options.
-He also says he expects the Jays to make a run at McCutchen in the off-season.
-One year deal could set them up to have flexibility to be active in the 2019 free agency though thinks of the available players they would only go after Donaldson.
-Shapiro has a great relationship with Estrada's agent Paul Cohen... also Tulo's agent

I wonder what they would need to give up to get McCutchen?

 

[hoc123]

Morsoi is on the Fan.

-Says the Estrada deal could have options.
-He also says he expects the Jays to make a run at McCutchen in the off-season.
-One year deal could set them up to have flexibility to be active in the 2019 free agency though thinks of the available players they would only go after Donaldson.
-Shapiro has a great relationship with Estrada's agent Paul Cohen... also Tulo's agent

Was this speculation or does he has a source? Because I really don't see the Jays giving up someone like Alford or Bichette for a 1 year rental.

 

[hoc123]

I wonder what they would need to give up to get McCutchen?

I would imagine Alford+ would make the most sense. The Jays wouldn't give up Vlad Jr or Bichette, and I can't imagine any other prospect would be enough to be the headliner for McCutchen.

 

[zeke]

Why are you so completely incapable of seeing beyond the current season?

20yrs of no playoffs - not even september playoff races - makes one appreciate a playoff team.

besides, who cares about payroll committments to older players in later years when we're just going to sign crappy old vets every year with that "savings" anyways? especially when all those contracts will be done by the time the next core is ready to contend?

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Leafin]

I would imagine Alford+ would make the most sense. The Jays wouldn't give up Vlad Jr or Bichette, and I can't imagine any other prospect would be enough to be the headliner for McCutchen.

That goes against everything they've done up to now. McCutchen doesn't seem like a guy they would go after in trade as he's old and is a free agent after next season. If we are giving up and Alford type prospect i see us targeting someone younger and with a few years of control. Maybe a Christian Yelich if the Marlins are desperate to move salary.

In all likelihood we go the free agent route and sign Jay Bruce.