Player Discussion At 47 the Senators Select Alex Formenton

[toxic poster]

As of now Formenton is a lot more comparable to Dzingel than he is to Hoffman. Although I think Formenton is better around the net and has a stronger presence on the ice.

Thats a much more apt comparison to a current roster player.

 

[JD1]

Formenton is 18 and a 2nd rounder. His development pace took off from draft day and he ended up playing WJC at 18 which is very rare for a 2nd rounder.

Formenton is going to be a lot bigger and stronger than Hoffman and worst case equally as fast.

At this point I don't see any scenario with Formenton where his best years in Ottawa aren't better than what Hoffman provided.

 

[Tuna99]

I get we don't like Mike Hoffman the person but you shouldn't let that cloud your judgement in evaluating him as a hockey player. He had one if the best releases in the league and was one of the few guys on our roster who could cleanly enter the offensive zone carrying the puck through the NZ.

Tell me this- if you were a scoring threat would you pass to Tom Pyatt and Zack Smith? You have to set those guys up if you want them to be 3ffective at all, you can't expect them to create their own offense. Look at when he played with a legitimate scoring centre in Duchene. He was incredible. He passed the puck, forechecked hard and was responsible in the neutral zone.

He played amazing with Duchesne? he had less goals then the year before. He had less goals then Ryan Dzingel. He had 22 goals last year, if he has one of the best releases in the NHL why is he only scoring 22 goals? If he was forecheking so hard why does everyone who watches hockey comment on his lack of effort.

Hoffman is what he is, a finisher with little interest in his teamtes success, team success or being a part of the team through his coaching staff - he was a baby to Dave Cameron, he treated EK horribly and he's the type of guy I;d hate to play with.

 

[God Says No]

Formenton is 18 and a 2nd rounder. His development pace took off from draft day and he ended up playing WJC at 18 which is very rare for a 2nd rounder.

Formenton is going to be a lot bigger and stronger than Hoffman and worst case equally as fast.

At this point I don't see any scenario with Formenton where his best years in Ottawa aren't better than what Hoffman provided.

One problem with that. He doesn't have Hoffman's shot. That's why Dzingel is more of an apt comparison. I just don't see Formenton putting up Hoffman numbers. I think tops out as a 3rd liner.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Formenton got more skill than he's getting credit for, he's not just a 3rd liner. Essentially a 2nd liner in my books, he doesn't have the deadly elite shot that Hoffman does, but has enough skill for a top 6 role. I see more of a Dzingel that plays bigger and better defensively, with a skill to get under people's skin. He is a very unique player, but in terms of production, I can see 40-50 points from him, which is a 2nd liner.

 

[SPF6ty9]

Would like another year in junior for Formenton. Excited about where he will be in a couple years, but the only reason he may make the team this year is because the team is so damn bad. Him going back to London and trying to be a top scorer, which I'm not sure he's shown at any level yet, could only be a benefit in unlocking his offensive game.

 

[JD1]

One problem with that. He doesn't have Hoffman's shot. That's why Dzingel is more of an apt comparison. I just don't see Formenton putting up Hoffman numbers. I think tops out as a 3rd liner.

I never mentioned his shot. few in the world have Hoffman's release. I said his best years would be betier than what Hoffman provided. he's tracking to be a better player.

 

[JD1]

Would like another year in junior for Formenton. Excited about where he will be in a couple years, but the only reason he may make the team this year is because the team is so damn bad. Him going back to London and trying to be a top scorer, which I'm not sure he's shown at any level yet, could only be a benefit in unlocking his offensive game.

he scored 29 in 48 games this year....that's a 40+ pace. Not bad for an 18 year old.

that said nothing wrong with a little extra formenton

 

[Boud]

Formenton is 18 and a 2nd rounder. His development pace took off from draft day and he ended up playing WJC at 18 which is very rare for a 2nd rounder.

Formenton is going to be a lot bigger and stronger than Hoffman and worst case equally as fast.

At this point I don't see any scenario with Formenton where his best years in Ottawa aren't better than what Hoffman provided.

Woof that's heavy expectations let me tell you. I think it's unreasonnable to expect 27-30 goals from him and 60 points. Formenton has the speed and the size yes, that is very true, but he does not have the same skill as Hoffman with the puck and most certainly does not have a shot even close to Hoffman. Hoffman can dangle and make plays at high speed, Formenton still has some work to do there.

Formenton could become a 55-60 point guy like Hoffman but that is a very long shot. To say there is no way he could be lesser than Hoffman means you think he'd be a 65-70 point guy... That's very very very unlikely. Formenton needs his hands and shot to catch up to his feet right now. He's worked on it and is better now but certainly not a guy I see piling up points like Hoffman.

 

[God Says No]

I never mentioned his shot. few in the world have Hoffman's release. I said his best years would be betier than what Hoffman provided. he's tracking to be a better player.

I know you didn't mention it. But I did to correct you.

Woof that's heavy expectations let me tell you. I think it's unreasonnable to expect 27-30 goals from him and 60 points. Formenton has the speed and the size yes, that is very true, but he does not have the same skill as Hoffman with the puck and most certainly does not have a shot even close to Hoffman. Hoffman can dangle and make plays at high speed, Formenton still has some work to do there.

Formenton could become a 55-60 point guy like Hoffman but that is a very long shot. To say there is no way he could be lesser than Hoffman means you think he'd be a 65-70 point guy... That's very very very unlikely. Formenton needs his hands and shot to catch up to his feet right now. He's worked on it and is better now but certainly not a guy I see piling up points like Hoffman.

Exactly.

 

[BondraTime]

He doesn't need to score as much as Hoffman to have better seasons then him (He will never beat Hoff in goals or points in a season IMO).

I still don't know if he will be as good as Hoffman though, I project him as a 15/20g-15/20a guy in his prime who is high energy and effort.

Grabner had a 52 point season as a 20 year old, and since then has been a high energy guy who is good for ~35 points. That's a close comparable in my opinion, both career year and career projection.

 

[Sensinitis]

He doesn't need to score as much as Hoffman to have better seasons then him (He will never beat Hoff in goals or points in a season IMO).

I still don't know if he will be as good as Hoffman though, I project him as a 15/20g-15/20a guy in his prime who is high energy and effort.

Grabner had a 52 point season as a 20 year old, and since then has been a high energy guy who is good for ~35 points. That's a close comparable in my opinion, both career year and career projection.

I think Forms has better IQ and finish than Grabner, I guess we’ll see soon enough.

 

[JD1]

To say there is no way he could be lesser than Hoffman means you think he'd be a 65-70 point guy

here's an idea....rather than tell me what I think you could ask a clarifying question or two.

I don't think Formenton will be a 65-70 point guy.

I do think he'll be a better pro than Mike Hoffman. Hoffman has many attributes as a professional hockey player, unfortunately he has more negative attributes than positive ones. He has a world class shot and not much else to go with it.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Woof that's heavy expectations let me tell you. I think it's unreasonnable to expect 27-30 goals from him and 60 points. Formenton has the speed and the size yes, that is very true, but he does not have the same skill as Hoffman with the puck and most certainly does not have a shot even close to Hoffman. Hoffman can dangle and make plays at high speed, Formenton still has some work to do there.

Formenton could become a 55-60 point guy like Hoffman but that is a very long shot. To say there is no way he could be lesser than Hoffman means you think he'd be a 65-70 point guy... That's very very very unlikely. Formenton needs his hands and shot to catch up to his feet right now. He's worked on it and is better now but certainly not a guy I see piling up points like Hoffman.

All fair points. I'd like to add a couple of things though.

1. It could be that the poster above meant that Formenton's overall contribution will be greater than Hoff's. Given his motor, speed, frame and defensive awareness at a young age that is not as much of a long shot as purely outscoring Hoffman. I agree that it's extremely unlikely that Formenton scores close to 70 points in the NHL. That being said...

2. At Formenton's age right now I don't think many people, if any, thought that Mike Hoffman would even be an NHL player much less a consistent 25 goal scorer. Formenton is probably ahead of Hoffman at the same age.

 

[BondraTime]

All fair points. I'd like to add a couple of things though.

1. It could be that the poster above meant that Formenton's overall contribution will be greater than Hoff's. Given his motor, speed, frame and defensive awareness at a young age that is not as much of a long shot as purely outscoring Hoffman. I agree that it's extremely unlikely that Formenton scores close to 70 points in the NHL. That being said...

2. At Formenton's age right now I don't think many people, if any, thought that Mike Hoffman would even be an NHL player much less a consistent 25 goal scorer. Formenton is probably ahead of Hoffman at the same age.

Considering Hoffman wasn't drafted yet that's a safe assumption.

 

[Boud]

All fair points. I'd like to add a couple of things though.

1. It could be that the poster above meant that Formenton's overall contribution will be greater than Hoff's. Given his motor, speed, frame and defensive awareness at a young age that is not as much of a long shot as purely outscoring Hoffman. I agree that it's extremely unlikely that Formenton scores close to 70 points in the NHL. That being said...

2. At Formenton's age right now I don't think many people, if any, thought that Mike Hoffman would even be an NHL player much less a consistent 25 goal scorer. Formenton is probably ahead of Hoffman at the same age.

That's all very true. I completely agree with this, I think JD1 is downplaying Hoffman's ability and right now we don't even know how Formenton will be as a pro. It's not like prospects have never busted before. We see guys that are fast and big that never pan out. We know that Mike Hoffman is a 55-60 point guy in the NHL, that's a fact.

To say "At this point I don't see any scenario with Formenton where his best years in Ottawa aren't better than what Hoffman provided" is simply not logical.

I love Formenton but Holy hell let's be realistic here. For all we know he could be Jiri Sekac.

 

[JD1]

That's all very true. I completely agree with this, I think JD1 is downplaying Hoffman's ability and right now we don't even know how Formenton will be as a pro. It's not like prospects have never busted before. We see guys that are fast and big that never pan out. We know that Mike Hoffman is a 55-60 point guy in the NHL, that's a fact.

To say "At this point I don't see any scenario with Formenton where his best years in Ottawa aren't better than what Hoffman provided" is simply not logical.

I haven't been a Hoffman fan for a long time and I've been quite vocal about it. Long before the EK Hoffman thing came out. before the shit show of the past 12 months.

I never liked Hoffman as a player and I've thought it evident for two years that his teammates didn't like him. He's got a world class shot and appears to have a similar calibre ego and opinion of himself. I'm glad he's gone.

I do think Formenton is going to have a long career and be a great pro. It's certainly true that not all prospects pan out but in this particular case his stock has risen dramatically from his draft position 14 months ago.

And he is miles ahead of where Hoffman was at a similar age. When Hoffman became a full time nhl hockey player he turned 26 that year. His draft year plus 7 (I know he wasn't drafted in his draft year but I'm counting that year) . He's currently sitting on 107 career goals. I think there is a possibility that Formenton has 107 career goals prior to the season in which Hoffman became a full time NHLer meaning prior to his draft year plus 7.

 

[JD1]

That's all very true. I completely agree with this, I think JD1 is downplaying Hoffman's ability and right now we don't even know how Formenton will be as a pro. It's not like prospects have never busted before. We see guys that are fast and big that never pan out. We know that Mike Hoffman is a 55-60 point guy in the NHL, that's a fact.

To say "At this point I don't see any scenario with Formenton where his best years in Ottawa aren't better than what Hoffman provided" is simply not logical.

I love Formenton but Holy hell let's be realistic here. For all we know he could be Jiri Sekac.

part of being realistic is realistically assessing Mike Hoffman.

 

[Boud]

part of being realistic is realistically assessing Mike Hoffman.

That's fair and I don't think I'm being unrealistic. I haven't really talked about Hoffman other than pointing out point totals. All I said is that it's certainly not fair to say that there isn't a scenario where Formenton could become a lesser player than Hoffman.

I know Hoffman has flaws, all players do and Hoffman is no different. It's easy to see that you are biased against Hoffman. Even pointing out his behavior off the ice, his ego and opinion of himself, the situation with Karlsson - all of which have nothing to do with his abilities as a hockey player.

 

[aragorn]

One problem with that. He doesn't have Hoffman's shot. That's why Dzingel is more of an apt comparison. I just don't see Formenton putting up Hoffman numbers. I think tops out as a 3rd liner.

If we are looking at just individual pure skill set than I would agree with you that Formenton looks to have a 3rd line skill set with top six potential. However, it's also quite possible that he could play with, for example, Brown & Stone who are both excellent passers & all he needs to do is get himself open to produce pts. Playing with two playmakers could help increase his stats if all he needs to do is get open, depending on who else is going to challenge him for a top six role on LW. At some point one would think that Tkachuk will probably occupy a top six LW spot which leaves one spot open for Formenton to challenge along with whoever else in the organization can play top six LW.

Personally, I would play Formenton with Brown & Tkachuk with White if & when they all reach Ottawa. Formenton's speed makes up for Brown's lack of speed & Tkachuk brings an element of size, skill & grit to White's line. Batherson could compliment either line IMO.

 

[Micklebot]

part of being realistic is realistically assessing Mike Hoffman.

I think everyone will admit Hoffman is far from perfect, and that to equal his contribution doesn't require matching his production, but in order to get a better idea of what you feel is a realistic assessment of Hoffman, could you tell us what Formenton would have to do at the NHL level in your opionion to match what Hoffman has done?

30 pts 3rd liner with good 2-way game?
45 pts middle six'er with strong 2-way game?
2nd line 50+ pts, all purpose winger?

You also mentioned Formenton was tracking better than Hoffman at the same age, which frankly is a bit meaningless since Hoffman clearly exceeded expectations he set for himself at that age (as Bondra pointed out, he wasn't even drafted yet at the same age). Might as well say Formenton is tracking better than Martin St.Louis too, HOF here we come. Hoffman's not perfect, but countless far better prospects from his draft year busted, it's certainly a posibility that Formenton never lives up to expectations you've set for him.

 

[aragorn]

I think everyone will admit Hoffman is far from perfect, and that to equal his contribution doesn't require matching his production, but in order to get a better idea of what you feel is a realistic assessment of Hoffman, could you tell us what Formenton would have to do at the NHL level in your opionion to match what Hoffman has done?

30 pts 3rd liner with good 2-way game?
45 pts middle six'er with strong 2-way game?
2nd line 50+ pts, all purpose winger?

You also mentioned Formenton was tracking better than Hoffman at the same age, which frankly is a bit meaningless since Hoffman clearly exceeded expectations he set for himself at that age (as Bondra pointed out, he wasn't even drafted yet at the same age). Might as well say Formenton is tracking better than Martin St.Louis too, HOF here we come. Hoffman's not perfect, but countless far better prospects from his draft year busted, it's certainly a posibility that Formenton never lives up to expectations you've set for him.

Don't you think with a player like Formenton that it depends who he plays with whether he has 30 pts or 50 plus pts? IMO if he plays with a couple of playmakers he could end up with closer to 50 pts but if he is on a checking line than it's likely he will be closer to 30 pts if he is lucky. When Smith played with Stone he had twice as many pts as was his normal production & now that GB is coach & has him playing strictly a defensive role his production has dropped significantly. I wonder how Dzingel would do if he played with Duchene & Stone?

Hoffman on the other hand doesn't matter who he played with, his stick handling, skating, skill & mostly his lethal shot assured him of scoring from anywhere at anytime on any line. Definitely the more skilled & gifted player & threat.

 

[JD1]

I think everyone will admit Hoffman is far from perfect, and that to equal his contribution doesn't require matching his production, but in order to get a better idea of what you feel is a realistic assessment of Hoffman, could you tell us what Formenton would have to do at the NHL level in your opionion to match what Hoffman has done?

30 pts 3rd liner with good 2-way game?
45 pts middle six'er with strong 2-way game?
2nd line 50+ pts, all purpose winger?

You also mentioned Formenton was tracking better than Hoffman at the same age, which frankly is a bit meaningless since Hoffman clearly exceeded expectations he set for himself at that age (as Bondra pointed out, he wasn't even drafted yet at the same age). Might as well say Formenton is tracking better than Martin St.Louis too, HOF here we come. Hoffman's not perfect, but countless far better prospects from his draft year busted, it's certainly a posibility that Formenton never lives up to expectations you've set for him.

I see Formenton spending the majority of his career in the 40 to 60 point range with 60 being a career year. He'll have size, speed and he's got a compete level that will play well with the fans. And he'll be a guy that shows up when it matters.

Imo Hoffman is a soft perimeter player that has some world class skills but has never been overly interested in going all out for team success.

Your point about "might as well... " you are just looking for an argument and I don't feel like indulging that today.

 

[Micklebot]

Don't you think with a player like Formenton that it depends who he plays with whether he has 30 pts or 50 plus pts? IMO if he plays with a couple of playmakers he could end up with closer to 50 pts but if he is on a checking line than it's likely he will be closer to 30 pts if he is lucky. When Smith played with Stone he had twice as many pts as was his normal production & now that GB is coach & has him playing strictly a defensive role his production has dropped significantly. I wonder how Dzingel would do if he played with Duchene & Stone?

Hoffman on the other hand doesn't matter who he played with, his stick handling, skating, skill & mostly his lethal shot assured him of scoring from anywhere at anytime on any line. Definitely the more skilled & gifted player & threat.

That's true, 50 pts creating your own chances on the third line is worth more to a team than 50 pts from Stone banking puck off you.

At the end of the day though, Formenton and Hoffman are very different stylistically, aside from being fast, there isn't much similar, so however anyone wants to identify their respective contributions, I just am looking for a threshold that Formenton needs to hit in order to contribute equally.

 

[Micklebot]

I see Formenton spending the majority of his career in the 40 to 60 point range with 60 being a career year. He'll have size, speed and he's got a compete level that will play well with the fans. And he'll be a guy that shows up when it matters.

Imo Hoffman is a soft perimeter player that has some world class skills but has never been overly interested in going all out for team success.

Your point about "might as well... " you are just looking for an argument and I don't feel like indulging that today.

Ok. I can see preferring a 40 to 60 pts Formenton over Hoffman. I do think it's unreasonable to suggest, as you did, that he's a sure thing to reach that benchmark, or even the he most likely will.

Personally I think Formenton will be similar to Grabner, or a pesky Vermette but I don't see it as a sure thing.

My tongue in cheek comment was just that, not looking to argue, I just think your pointing out their respective place on the development curve at the same age was equally irrelevant.