At 15th Overall (via Trade) the Red Wings Select G Sebastian Cossa

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I'm really unsure things have been disrupted so much I'm clueless at this point. Always was but this time I didn't have a chance.

Back to Cossa I'm a little unnerved about late birthdate and a strong jr team but I think that's just a previous trauma and similarities thankfully end there.

Late birthdate (closer to last draft by being born in Q1 or Q4 of the year) has a more positive correlation than early birthdates (Born in Q2 or Q3 of the year)

Age Bias at the NHL Draft

Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft

Want to Play in the NHL? Better Hope You Were Born in the Right Month

 

[bellringer77]

This is the perfect example of a cherry picked statline to construct a biased narrative while ignoring context.

Only 23 goalies in NHL history have over 350 wins.

Furthermore, The NHL draft didn't exist in its modern form until 1969, when teams could no longer sponsor junior players and sign them directly, as had been the case up to that point.
There are 5 goalies with 350+ wins that are pre-draft era, Sawchuck, Plante, Esposito, Hall, and Vachon.

So only 18 goalies in the draft era have 350+ wins. That's an incredibly small sample size.

In a sport where you have 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 1 goalie on the ice at any given time, it makes perfect sense that success in goal would be much more of a crap shoot.

If you want to make a legitimate point use your same metrics for every other position given your criteria and adjust accordingly. For simplicities sake, a forward has 12x the chance of getting in a game over a goalie, and a defensemen 6x the chance.

How many forwards drafted in the first round are top 23 all time in goals or points vs how many played 72 games or less NHL games?
How many defensemen drafted in the first round are in the top 23 all time in goals or points vs how many played in 36 or less NHL games?

Compare those ratios to what you found with goalies and see if there's a significant difference.

You missed the entire point.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Around 74% of first round picks play at least 100 NHL games, 44% for goalies drafted in the same round (in the last 20 years).



And almost all of those goalies have since signed elsewhere as free agents or been traded. Unless your position is that once a player gets traded he can never win another cup i'm not sure you're getting my point.

There are only 32 jobs available so there is always going to be someone available if your pro scouts can identify him, like Yzermans did in acquiring Ned.

Maybe I overstated by saying I'd never take one in any round, but I certainly wouldn't ever take one in round 1, and I definitely would never trade up to take a goalie.

This also isn't anything against Cossa who looks like a stud, I just feel like goalies are at the best of times a gamble and if you're going to gamble you should be looking to tilt the odds in your favor. I'd rather pick up a young goalie later in his development so I have a better idea of what I'm getting.
Look at the Ned trade, that to me is a perfect example of what we should be looking for. It cost us only Bernier's rights and a 3rd. Cossa cost us the #23 pick a 2nd rounder and a fifth and statistics say he has generously a 50/50 chance of developing to where Ned is already.

The idea is that Nedeljkovic is here for the time it takes Cossa to get ready... and it's a "hedge" against Nedeljkovic being the flash in the pan Carolina was worried he is.

But the real issue here is that in the middle of the first round, you want to get a true impact player. While guys like Svechkov or Fedotenko or Pinelli or whoever you want were available... are they any more likely to be a hit than a guy like Riley Sheahan was at 21? If there was ever a year to be super aggressive and go after a goalie who has the exact measureables and everything you could want... it was this year where you'd be kinda hoping that you're making the right pick on these guys sight unseen.

I can definitely understand wanting to wait on a goalie. One, goalies are a literal crapshoot. Lundqvist was a 7th rounder and Thomas McCollum was a 1st rounder. who knows. And the Wings went on a 25 year playoff streak in which they had a high priced, top flight goaltender for 3 of the years? Hasek and Joseph's time. Otherwise, they filled out the rest of the roster and got guys like an end of his career Vernon, Osgood, Howard, Legace, and Conklin with whatever was left.

I love Cossa and I'm biased towards goalies as a matter of course, but I truly do think that if you can get a gamechanger in the middle of the 1st round, you do it. No matter the position.

 

[newfy]

Nothing wrong with taking what you hope is a franchise goalie when you have an extra first rounder and a bunch of picks. This is good where it happened, would be bad if it was at 6.

Should get to see him at the World Juniors for a couple years as Canadas starter

 

[TheClap]

You missed the entire point.

I didn't. Your point is based on a flawed analysis.

 

[Red Stanley]

He looks like he has the tools to be a dominant goalie and that makes him a good prospect. Couldn't care less about the average statistical probabilities of all goalies taken in the 1st round. His name is Sebastian Cossa, not 44%. Can't wait to see him in a Wings jersey.

 

[TheOtherOne]

The idea is that Nedeljkovic is here for the time it takes Cossa to get ready... and it's a "hedge" against Nedeljkovic being the flash in the pan Carolina was worried he is.

But the real issue here is that in the middle of the first round, you want to get a true impact player. While guys like Svechkov or Fedotenko or Pinelli or whoever you want were available... are they any more likely to be a hit than a guy like Riley Sheahan was at 21? If there was ever a year to be super aggressive and go after a goalie who has the exact measureables and everything you could want... it was this year where you'd be kinda hoping that you're making the right pick on these guys sight unseen.

I can definitely understand wanting to wait on a goalie. One, goalies are a literal crapshoot. Lundqvist was a 7th rounder and Thomas McCollum was a 1st rounder. who knows. And the Wings went on a 25 year playoff streak in which they had a high priced, top flight goaltender for 3 of the years? Hasek and Joseph's time. Otherwise, they filled out the rest of the roster and got guys like an end of his career Vernon, Osgood, Howard, Legace, and Conklin with whatever was left.

I love Cossa and I'm biased towards goalies as a matter of course, but I truly do think that if you can get a gamechanger in the middle of the 1st round, you do it. No matter the position.

I didn't even read this post, I just liked it for the username.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

He looks like he has the tools to be a dominant goalie and that makes him a good prospect. Couldn't care less about the average statistical probabilities of all goalies taken in the 1st round. His name is Sebastian Cossa, not 44%. Can't wait to see him in a Wings jersey.

If I wasn't all in on Lil' Sebastian, I would totally nickname him 44%.

 

[bellringer77]

I didn't. Your point is based on a flawed analysis.

You did miss the point but I’m not going to argue with you

 

[Gniwder]

If I wasn't all in on Lil' Sebastian, I would totally nickname him 44%.

That should be his jersey number, lol.

BTW, I like Seabass better.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

That should be his jersey number, lol.

BTW, I like Seabass better.

Yeah, but that's already Cam Neely. That would be like "I want to call Zadina 'Z'" or Jurco "The Magic Man". I don't like re-using nicknames if I don't have to.

 

[Gniwder]

Yeah, but that's already Cam Neely. That would be like "I want to call Zadina 'Z'" or Jurco "The Magic Man". I don't like re-using nicknames if I don't have to.

Seabass wasn't his nickname while he was playing, just the name of the character he played right?

I don't count that as re-using a nickname.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

He puts it on his mask and his brother calls him Seabass, you might not want to use it, but it sure seems like that horse is out of the barn...

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Seabass wasn't his nickname while he was playing, just the name of the character he played right?

I don't count that as re-using a nickname.

You are right. I guess the two are just interlinked in my mind, because by the time Dumb and Dumber was made he was pretty much out of the league (one or two more years). Eh, people don't have to use my nickname. (Because the guy himself doesn't. I'mma still call him it though)

E: All this being said, if he does get into a fight or any kind of physical dustup, I'm totally gonna yell out, kick his ass, Seabass.

 

[TheClap]

You did miss the point but I’m not going to argue with you

How am I missing a point with an invalid premise?

 

[Bench]

He puts it on his mask and his brother calls him Seabass, you might not want to use it, but it sure seems like that horse is out of the barn...

This you

 

[TheAngryHank]

If I wasn't all in on Lil' Sebastian, I would totally nickname him 44%.

His # should be 44

 

[Bench]

You missed the entire point.

I didn't. Your point is based on a flawed analysis.

You did miss the point but I’m not going to argue with you

How am I missing a point with an invalid premise?

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

This is based off absolutely nothing tangible, but I really think this pick may be the one that legitimizes us as long term contenders in 5 years

I’m kind of a f’ing idiot though, so what do I know

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

This is based off absolutely nothing tangible, but I really think this pick may be the one that legitimizes us as long term contenders in 5 years

I’m kind of a f’ing idiot though, so what do I know

Welcome to the club. We're all idiots here. I would love that though.

E: I mean, you see how hard I'm steering into this pick. I literally memed a goalie pick so hard that it actually happened. Now, I never intended to get this far and now I'm too scared to back down.

"I know you got problems... hell, we all do. But you gotta understand that there ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on, till we get to the end of the line."

 

[Gniwder]

Getting back to the subject....

I was just thinking, this is probably the reason why Stevie was being so coy about selecting a goalie with the #6OA pick. A lot of people thought he had his eyes on Wallstedt, and boom, he trades up from 22 to get Cossa instead even while Wallstedt was available.

Heck, if the plan was to get a D and a G in the first round, I guess things couldn't have gone better for him. Let's hope it works out.

 

[Oddbob]

Getting back to the subject....

I was just thinking, this is probably the reason why Stevie was being so coy about selecting a goalie with the #6OA pick. A lot of people thought he had his eyes on Wallstedt, and boom, he trades up from 22 to get Cossa instead even while Wallstedt was available.

Heck, if the plan was to get a D and a G in the first round, I guess things couldn't have gone better for him. Let's hope it works out.

I think this is the 2 guys he wanted. He said in his presser, (sounded like 2nd-4th round ish) that a few guys he wanted, he knew wouldn't make it to their picks. Also, mentioned that for the most part there were no massive surprises of where guys got picked or were still available.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Welcome to the club. We're all idiots here. I would love that though.

E: I mean, you see how hard I'm steering into this pick. I literally memed a goalie pick so hard that it actually happened. Now, I never intended to get this far and now I'm too scared to back down.

"I know you got problems... hell, we all do. But you gotta understand that there ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on, till we get to the end of the line."

Next time meme a 1st line center pick so hard so we can finally steer this ship in the right direction.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Getting back to the subject....

I was just thinking, this is probably the reason why Stevie was being so coy about selecting a goalie with the #6OA pick. A lot of people thought he had his eyes on Wallstedt, and boom, he trades up from 22 to get Cossa instead even while Wallstedt was available.

Heck, if the plan was to get a D and a G in the first round, I guess things couldn't have gone better for him. Let's hope it works out.

It was apparently Osgood that convinced Detroit to take Cossa over Wallstedt.

If he sucks then we have something else to blame Ozzy for.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I think it was Ted Kulfan who asked Yzerman about comparing Cossa to Vasilevskiy and Yzerman told a story about how Al Murray said Vasi was either the best goalie he'd ever seen or the best goalie prospect, I can't remember the exact wording. But Al Murray knew Vasilevskiy was going to be a great goaltender. I wish we had someone with Murray's track record making the call on whether to draft Cossa or Wallstedt and if so which one. We'll have to wait and see but I like what I have heard about Cossa. I do expect this draft to tell us a lot about our NA scouting, hopefully it ends up being a draft that builds confidence, unlike Tyler Wright's drafting in NA.