Article: It's time for Kenny to go

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Lazlo Hollyfeld

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Mar 4, 2004
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If I tell you tomorrow there's a 29 year old 6'2" 220 lb power forward who kills penalties, hits, fights, and has scored 42 goals over his past two regular seasons coming up as a UFA there is not a single person in the entire known universe who says "you know what, I'm tapping out of the bidding at 4 x 4."

Knowing it's Abdelkader, and considering that familiarity, there are fans here who would... because here like few other places familiarity breeds contempt.

Not a single person in the entire known universe. Being a whee bit dramatic maybe?

Once they found it was Abdelkader their excitement would be tempered a bit because they'd look further than those last two seasons you cherry picked. Add to that a power forward's game dropping off in their 30s.

It's not contempt, it's context. Most of the people bashing Helm and Abby's contracts often go out of their way to say they like the players but hate the deals.
 

Heaton

Moderator
Feb 13, 2004
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I'd want some context first. No one is going to be shelling out 7m for Patrick Maroon after he scores 30+ with McDavid. Abdelkader scored 42 goals in 2 seasons because of his linemates, not because of his offensive ability.
 

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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Even at his best, Abby wasn't in the mold of a traditional power forward at all. The guy was much more a Maltby with some extra scoring, than a junior version of a Tkachuk or a Shanahan.

True. He was more physical than both and less offensive than either.

The notion of paying him as a potential power forward was flawed to begin with, because his identity was 'talented pest', not 'future 4-star forward'.

If he was a future 4-star forward his AAV would have been 6+ mil a year, not the 4.25 you're upset about.
 

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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When you remove all of the context (that strongly suggests that the production might not be sustainable), sure...

These hesitations rarely come up when talking about some other teams' UFA because... UPSIDE!
 

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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I'd want some context first. No one is going to be shelling out 7m for Patrick Maroon after he scores 30+ with McDavid. Abdelkader scored 42 goals in 2 seasons because of his linemates, not because of his offensive ability.

15:
32.27% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - NYQUIST,GUSTAV - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
20.43% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - DATSYUK,PAVEL - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
10.02% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - COLE,ERIK - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
5.18% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - SHEAHAN,RILEY - TATAR,TOMAS
4.53% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - NYQUIST,GUSTAV - SHEAHAN,RILEY
3.25% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - PULKKINEN,TEEMU - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
3.1% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - DATSYUK,PAVEL - TATAR,TOMAS
2.88% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - FRANZEN,JOHAN - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
2.43% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - TATAR,TOMAS - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
1% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK

16:
45.5% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - LARKIN,DYLAN - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
15.59% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - DATSYUK,PAVEL - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
15.22% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - NYQUIST,GUSTAV - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
3.64% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - GLENDENING,LUKE - ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
1.03% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - DATSYUK,PAVEL - GLENDENING,LUKE
1.01% EV ABDELKADER,JUSTIN - GLENDENING,LUKE - HELM,DARREN

HFBoards rips the roster for being abysmal and demands the GM be fired for assembling such an atrocity. Guy plays ~25% of his ES time with Datsyuk one year and less the next and that selfsame roster is now credited with his production.
 

ArGarBarGar

What do we want!? Unfair!
Sep 8, 2008
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I don't think scoring 42 goals over two seasons when you spend almost all of the time with one or both of Zetterberg or Datsyuk is exactly enticing, either.
 

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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Once they found it was Abdelkader their excitement would be tempered a bit because they'd look further than those last two seasons you cherry picked.

I don't think you understand how 'cherry picking' works. I didn't take his first two years, or his first and fifth, or his 3rd and 4th. I took the last two years before he was a UFA, when he was a top 6 ish forward. Those are the years anyone will look at.

It's not contempt, it's context. Most of the people bashing Helm and Abby's contracts often go out of their way to say they like the players but hate the deals.

It's contempt excused with "context", where what passes for context is a very narrow field of vision. If we were talking about actual context people would be looking at what similar players get as UFAs, but that's not what happens. What happens is people look at what Abby gets and think 'dumb. Holland should have just kicked him out the door and given his role to (prospect name here)' because their goal isn't the same as Holland's, so the standards they use to process risk-reward are different.
 

ArGarBarGar

What do we want!? Unfair!
Sep 8, 2008
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If we were in 2007, heck yeah.

I'm not saying Abdelkader is completely made by D+Z, but both of those guys drive/drove whatever lines they were/are on, so to act like Abdelkader was not a beneficiary of that talent (even if they weren't scoring close to 100 points in the 2010s) is being disingenuous.

Without those two I do not see Abdelkader scoring close to 20 goals each season.
 

Shaman464

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May 1, 2009
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I don't think you understand how 'cherry picking' works. I didn't take his first two years, or his first and fifth, or his 3rd and 4th. I took the last two years before he was a UFA, when he was a top 6 ish forward. Those are the years anyone will look at.



It's contempt excused with "context", where what passes for context is a very narrow field of vision. If we were talking about actual context people would be looking at what similar players get as UFAs, but that's not what happens. What happens is people look at what Abby gets and think 'dumb. Holland should have just kicked him out the door and given his role to (prospect name here)' because their goal isn't the same as Holland's, so the standards they use to process risk-reward are different.

How about the context that his shooting percentage doubled? How about all the context of that happening to players and it not being sustainable? How about the fact that besides those two seasons his career high in goals is 10? How about when the team became less deep offensively he returned to being an offensive blackhole?

Abdelkader is a guy you lock down for 2-4 years when you have a core and have space. He is not a guy you lock down with a contract you give a core player when your core is crumbling. He's the exact type of player you trade at the TDL and get a kings ransom for, and start developing the next Abdelkader. This is why Detroit has gone **** up since 2008. Because KH doesn't know which players to sell high on and which ones he should hold on to.
 

Lazlo Hollyfeld

The jersey ad still sucks
Mar 4, 2004
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I don't think you understand how 'cherry picking' works. I didn't take his first two years, or his first and fifth, or his 3rd and 4th. I took the last two years before he was a UFA, when he was a top 6 ish forward. Those are the years anyone will look at.



It's contempt excused with "context", where what passes for context is a very narrow field of vision. If we were talking about actual context people would be looking at what similar players get as UFAs, but that's not what happens. What happens is people look at what Abby gets and think 'dumb. Holland should have just kicked him out the door and given his role to (prospect name here)' because their goal isn't the same as Holland's, so the standards they use to process risk-reward are different.

:laugh: Out of a seven year career, you took the last two. Not to mention the contract was signed in Nov of 2015, so at that point he had exactly one 40+ point season under his belt. Obviously those are meaningful, but they're not going to disregard the five before them. Or who his linemates were when he put up his best season.

You can lecture all us Wings fans here as you are fond to do, but plenty of hockey writers outside of Detroit were questioning that signing. As much as you paint it that way, it isn't simply us spoiled Wings fans complaining again. With the Abby contract, you're picking the wrong hill to die on.
 

vladdy16

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Aug 2, 2005
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4 million dollars is nothing for a little bit of stability. Abdelkader doesn't have much competition for his role in his age group on our team or around the league.

He isn't a 90's era power forward, and he's not getting paid like one. He's a good athlete heading into his prime, with an underwhelming but proven skill set.

Just letting guys waltz out the door in hopes of a 1in30 shot at the next Stamkos isn't productive use of cap space. I feel more secure in the development environment that our young forwards will be stepping into having Abdelkader on board for the next half decade.

Last year sucked, but the jury is still out on the contract, so using it as an example of gross incompetence is very far fetched.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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These hesitations rarely come up when talking about some other teams' UFA because... UPSIDE!

Examples? Or are you just going to lazily toss a blanket statement out there to defend your original point?
 

Lazlo Hollyfeld

The jersey ad still sucks
Mar 4, 2004
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4 million dollars is nothing for a little bit of stability. Abdelkader doesn't have much competition for his role in his age group on our team or around the league.

He isn't a 90's era power forward, and he's not getting paid like one. He's a good athlete heading into his prime, with an underwhelming but proven skill set.

Just letting guys waltz out the door in hopes of a 1in30 shot at the next Stamkos isn't productive use of cap space. I feel more secure in the development environment that our young forwards will be stepping into having Abdelkader on board for the next half decade.

Last year sucked, but the jury is still out on the contract, so using it as an example of gross incompetence is very far fetched.

Abby is 30 years old. He got this contract as he was leaving his prime, not entering it. He certainly isn't a power forward. He's a
bigger Dan Cleary, at best. Cleary was a consistent 20ish goals, 40 point player at Abby's age.

What does Abdelkader's contract have to do with odds at Stamkos?? A bad contract is a bad contract, regardless of hypotheticals on how the money is spent.

It's not far fetched. Maybe Abby will earn this contract but given his age, his game, and trends based on many NHL players in the past, it seems unlikely.
 

vladdy16

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Aug 2, 2005
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Abby is 30 years old. He got this contract as he was leaving his prime, not entering it. He certainly isn't a power forward. He's a
bigger Dan Cleary, at best. Cleary was a consistent 20ish goals, 40 point player at Abby's age.

Abdelkader isn't a hyper fast twitch athlete, he's a solid and lumbering technician, his prime years are ahead of him imo. A bigger Dan Cleary sounds awesome, and well worth 1/18th of your cap space.

What does Abdelkader's contract have to do with odds at Stamkos?? A bad contract is a bad contract, regardless of hypotheticals on how the money is spent.

The odds at landing high priced and impactful free agents are not hypothetical. What happens to that 9 million dollars you clear by walking away from 8 and 43 if you don't land an increasingly rare FA? That 9 million dollars slowly gets eaten up by the revolving door of 23 players coming back to the negotiating table in intervals.

At the time Abdelkader signed it was a market value contract, with a couple bonus years thrown in. The incentive to walk away from a proven player was pretty limited imo.

It's not far fetched. Maybe Abby will earn this contract but given his age, his game, and trends based on many NHL players in the past, it seems unlikely.

Can you elaborate on those trends? Thinking of the grizzled grinder player type you would almost assume a guy in his early 30's no?

Still thinking it's far fetched to use the Abdelkader contract as evidence of gross incompetence from the gm.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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. At the time Abdelkader signed it was a market value contract, with a couple bonus years thrown in. The incentive to walk away from a proven player was pretty limited imo.

***Market value based on a small//incomplete//premature sample size***

At the time of Abdelkader's contract he had 71 games of playing like a 4.25 million dollar player, preceded by 257 games of looking like a ~2 million dollar bottom 6 grinder.
 
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Winger98

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Feb 27, 2002
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Another issue with Gator and his ability to put up points is going to become opportunity. There's already a lack of room in the top6 and on the powerplay. Push Gator into the bottom half of the lineup and off a top powerplay unit, and I'm not sure how he stands a chance at putting up enough points to justify his deal. And the competition for spots is only going to get worse for him as the Wings continue to pick high and have more and more younger, more skilled forwards drift into the lineup.

Someone mentioned eating a bit of Ericsson's deal to facilitate a move next summer, but the guy we should be bending over backwards to move is Gator. If we eat a million of his deal, and he doesn't look like an incompetent whirling dervish on skates this year, he might draw some interest.
 

vladdy16

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Aug 2, 2005
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***Market value based on a small//incomplete//premature sample size***

At the time of Abdelkader's contract he had 71 games of playing like a 4.25 million dollar player, preceded by 257 games of looking like a ~2 million dollar bottom 6 grinder.

No, market value based on the likes of Matt Belesky. I'm not going to base a pro abdelkader argument based on offensive production.

I'd be curious if there were any bottom 6 grinders making ~2 mil on a ufa contract that are better than Abdelkader. I think it'd be an unimpressive list(matt martin etc) but might be wrong.
 

Lazlo Hollyfeld

The jersey ad still sucks
Mar 4, 2004
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Abdelkader isn't a hyper fast twitch athlete, he's a solid and lumbering technician, his prime years are ahead of him imo. A bigger Dan Cleary sounds awesome, and well worth 1/18th of your cap space.
Because all the negative effects of aging will somehow make him a better player?

A bigger Dan Cleary would be awesome. I doubt Abby rebounds and puts up several more years as a 40 point guy to become a Dan Cleary. I'm hoping I'm wrong though.

Nice spin on the cap space. It's the term that's the biggest problem.

The odds at landing high priced and impactful free agents are not hypothetical. What happens to that 9 million dollars you clear by walking away from 8 and 43 if you don't land an increasingly rare FA? That 9 million dollars slowly gets eaten up by the revolving door of 23 players coming back to the negotiating table in intervals.

At the time Abdelkader signed it was a market value contract, with a couple bonus years thrown in. The incentive to walk away from a proven player was pretty limited imo.
You linked Abby's signing to getting Stamkos, as if that was the either or situation the Wings were in.


Can you elaborate on those trends? Thinking of the grizzled grinder player type you would almost assume a guy in his early 30's no?

Still thinking it's far fetched to use the Abdelkader contract as evidence of gross incompetence from the gm.
See all the data on NHL players where they study age and scoring.

Plus Abdelkader's two best scoring years he was playing with Datsyuk and Zetterberg and had a shooting % of 14.9 and 12.3%. Most other full seasons his shooting percentage was around 6%, including last season. Maybe he'll score like that again but it seems more likely that was an aberration.

I will concede that if someone was going to start with gross incompetence for the GM, they should start with Helm's contract.
 
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WingedWheel1987

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Jan 11, 2011
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Danny Cleary was far more talented offensively than Gator will ever be. Gator needed 18+ minutes a night to come close to Cleary's career best years which saw him only averaging 15-16 minutes a night. Not to mention Cleary put up more points in fewer games.

I can confidently predict that Gator will not have another 20+ goal/40 point season for the remainder of his career.

Abdelkader's contract really is horrendous. It's way worse than Helm's which is a dumpster fire of a contract.

Holland gave Justin Abdelkader a contract that no other organization would have ever even considered giving him. What makes it even more ridiculous is that Holland gave him that contract even though he knew that Datsyuk was gone at the end of the season. That's how short sighted he is.

Every year he continues to be the GM of the Wings is just adding another year to the Wings rebuild. He really is one of the worst GM's in the league. Bottom three at least. Some combination of Benning/Sweeney/Holland.
 
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jkutswings

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Jul 10, 2014
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I don't think you understand how 'cherry picking' works. I didn't take his first two years, or his first and fifth, or his 3rd and 4th. I took the last two years before he was a UFA, when he was a top 6 ish forward. Those are the years anyone will look at.



It's contempt excused with "context", where what passes for context is a very narrow field of vision. If we were talking about actual context people would be looking at what similar players get as UFAs, but that's not what happens. What happens is people look at what Abby gets and think 'dumb. Holland should have just kicked him out the door and given his role to (prospect name here)' because their goal isn't the same as Holland's, so the standards they use to process risk-reward are different.
All I know is that, at the instant they began talking about how important it was to sign Justin Abdelkader, and rumors of numbers started swirling, I thought it was a giant mistake, and that there was no way the kid was even going to sustain his recent production, let alone build on it. He's a third line forward, who was the beneficiary of some temporary increase in production, and got significantly over-signed as a result. Label that however you like, or even outright dismiss it, but it was most definitely not second guessing, because, at the moment it happened, I would've been fine with a 2-3 year deal, been less fine with a 4-5 year deal, been slightly less fine with letting him walk altogether, and yet still preferred any of those options to giving a role player 7 years, especially a guy who's value is tied to physical play.
 

vladdy16

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Because all the negative effects of aging will somehow make him a better player?

No, because the effects of aging will be less pronounced on a player that is already sub-par in the diminishing categories(speed,quickness, reaction, agility, etc), thus there's the chance for experience to trump those losses and for the player to be a better player in age 28-34 than 22-28.

A bigger Dan Cleary would be awesome. I doubt Abby rebounds and puts up several more years as a 40 point guy to become a Dan Cleary. I'm hoping I'm wrong though.

Nice spin on the cap space. It's the term that's the biggest problem.

Yeah I'm really pulling the wool over on you guys. I don't think Abdelkader at 4 mil needs to come close to Dan Cleary level production. Matt Belesky got paid 4mil to put up 8 pts last year.

Not arguing that the Wings didn't throw in extra years, but again how big of a deal is that going to be in 2022 $, less than a fireable offense I'd say.

You linked Abby's signing to getting Stamkos, as if that was the either or situation the Wings were in.

No I didn't. I'm saying if you make moves specifically to clear cap space, that over the course of time, your other contracts will encroach on that space you made, so your window of opportunity to improve your team through the use of 'cap space' has limits. You can't equate the idea of what other players in the league make at 4,5 or 9 mil, and the hope that eventually a player like that will come along to fill that space on your team, with the value of simply having 4,5 or 9 million dollars in cap space.

Timing your contracts to be tradeable/roster to be flexable at the times when you have the opportunity to go after free agents is more the key than being frugal in the mean time.


See all the data on NHL players where they study age and scoring.

Plus Abdelkader's two best scoring years he was playing with Datsyuk and Zetterberg and had a shooting % of 14.9 and 12.3%. Most other full seasons his shooting percentage was around 6%, including last season. Maybe he'll score like that again but it seems more likely that was an aberration.

Nobody here is arguing that Abdelkader is a scorer. The argument is more that 4 million dollars is about what you should expect to pay if you want a player with experience to curate your bottom 6 and also have the skill to contribute 20-40 points from there if your team ever gets good. Put 40 points aside, Matt Martin has never cracked 20.

The fact that Brett Hull and Teemu Selanne slowed down at a certain age shouldn't really impact projections for Abdelkader. There are plenty of grinders that excelled if not played their best hockey in their early 30's.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
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Yeah I'm really pulling the wool over on you guys. I don't think Abdelkader at 4 mil needs to come close to Dan Cleary level production. Matt Belesky got paid 4mil to put up 8 pts last year.

Is citing one of the worst contracts given out in free agency recently, suppose to make Abdelkader's look OK?

And at least Beleskey didn't get a 7 year deal after the first productive season of his freaking career.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
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Abby doesn't have to rely on dexterity for his game to age like milk. He throws his body around, and will likely have a high rate of injury. 15-20-35 is an optimistic ceiling from here on out (with a 10-15-25 being more the norm) and the kid wasn't nearly the unicorn that management painted him as to roll out the red carpet on a 7 year deal.

On any other team in the league, he's a 3rd line winger. Those guys don't get extended deals, especially when they're hitting the age of 30, and playing a style that wears on the body.
 
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