Article: It's time for Kenny to go

[Henkka]

I still think the decline came when Bowman left as adviser.

You did notice that our most impactful salary raises from SUCCESS happened at same time? And cap did stand pat at same time.

It will happen for every freaking contender. Success will eat your cap space, and then you turn to mediocrity with only stars left with market priced contracts. It has already happened for LAK and Chicago is the next 2010-2017 Red Wings and Pittsburgh will follow after Murray gets his 10M (+those star centers get old like our centers did).

It's the circle of salary cap NHL. We are on a downswing against higher draft picks, and then we go to upswing until drafting some time with high picks. Good will become bad and bad will become good. Simple as that.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

You did notice that our most impactful salary raises from SUCCESS happened at same time? And cap did stand pat at same time.

It will happen for every freaking contender. Success will eat your cap space, and then you turn to mediocrity with only stars left with market priced contracts. It has already happened for LAK and Chicago is the next 2010-2017 Red Wings and Pittsburgh will follow after Murray gets his 10M (+those star centers get old like our centers did).

It's the circle of salary cap NHL. We are on a downswing against higher draft picks, and then we go to upswing until drafting some time with high picks. Good will become bad and bad will become good. Simple as that.

Notice how the Kings purged their front office when the team declined though. They aren't going to endorse mediocrity. Hawks still believe they are contenders, and hell they might be. Things are a lot more stale in Detroit, however.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Notice how the Kings purged their front office when the team declined though. They aren't going to endorse mediocrity. Hawks still believe they are contenders, and hell they might be. Things are a lot more stale in Detroit, however.

Notice how the Kings fell from contenders to non-playoff team with their core still intact and in their prime.

If Holland missed playoffs while Lids was still around his job would have been very much in danger.

 

[jkutswings]

Notice how the Kings fell from contenders to non-playoff team with their core still intact and in their prime.

If Holland missed playoffs while Lids was still around his job would have been very much in danger.

With all the bad deals he's signed, and the overall trend of on-ice success these last five years, yet there hasn't been a whisper of Holland being on the hot seat...

...but you think that the above scenario would've put him on the chopping block? I don't see it. This town (unfortunately) keeps every sort of personnel around far too long, with a very very long leash before the heat gets turned up.

 

[Shaman464]

You did notice that our most impactful salary raises from SUCCESS happened at same time? And cap did stand pat at same time.

It will happen for every freaking contender. Success will eat your cap space, and then you turn to mediocrity with only stars left with market priced contracts. It has already happened for LAK and Chicago is the next 2010-2017 Red Wings and Pittsburgh will follow after Murray gets his 10M (+those star centers get old like our centers did).

It's the circle of salary cap NHL. We are on a downswing against higher draft picks, and then we go to upswing until drafting some time with high picks. Good will become bad and bad will become good. Simple as that.

The problem is that, unlike teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh which have had multiple cups since the cap has been instated, Holland has given raises to replacement part players. Teams that have shown long term CONTENTION have sustained that by trading away pieces that can be replaced by youth or more cheaply on the FA market.

Example 1: AA should have replaced Helm as a middle 6 winger. I am not AA's biggest fan. I don't think he's elite by any stretch, and I think he's a career middle six winger. But his emergence into a middle 6 winger made Helm expendable especially because Helm has become more fragile and used less in defensive situations. Holland should have traded him for a pick or prospect either the summer or TDL before he was due for a new contract. He is not a part of a contending core and should be used as part of a rebuild to get assets.

Example 2: Abdelakder should have also been traded at the TDL. Toughish player who was on pace for a 20 goal season garners great returns at the TDL. He seemingly was kept as a future captain/local boy. But Detroit has Larkin and DD to fill the local/leadership niches.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The problem is that, unlike teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh which have had multiple cups since the cap has been instated, Holland has given raises to replacement part players. Teams that have shown long term CONTENTION have sustained that by trading away pieces that can be replaced by youth or more cheaply on the FA market.

Example 1: AA should have replaced Helm as a middle 6 winger. I am not AA's biggest fan. I don't think he's elite by any stretch, and I think he's a career middle six winger. But his emergence into a middle 6 winger made Helm expendable especially because Helm has become more fragile and used less in defensive situations. Holland should have traded him for a pick or prospect either the summer or TDL before he was due for a new contract. He is not a part of a contending core and should be used as part of a rebuild to get assets.

Example 2: Abdelakder should have also been traded at the TDL. Toughish player who was on pace for a 20 goal season garners great returns at the TDL. He seemingly was kept as a future captain/local boy. But Detroit has Larkin and DD to fill the local/leadership niches.

I understand the point and it is well taken. But I don't think that AA should have replaced Helm. AA should have replaced Bertuzzi or filled in the Richards spot or been installed before Pulkkinen or Jurco or whoever. Literally the only thing that AA and Helm have in common is speed.

Helm, even with his defensive responsibilities lightened, is a possession guy. He tends to hang onto the puck or go get the puck. AA doesn't do that. AA wants a pass from the D to spring him to do something offensively. Helm will grind to get a puck. If you could tell me that AA would do a fraction of what Helm does (winning battles, fighting for loose pucks), sure, let him be the replacement.

Also, Abby. Trading Abby would have been contingent on finding another guy with the muck it up skillset who could pot near 20 goals. The Wings currently are tissue paper soft with the exception of Abby, Z, Mantha, and a couple of the bottom 6 and bottom pairing guys. I know it's not hard to find a guy will to do that and it's not an excuse for that abomination of a contract, but I can see why they felt Abby was vital to keep around.

I think the contracts were terrible mistakes, but I can see why Holland might have felt pressure to retain them.

 

[Frk It]

Helm, even with his defensive responsibilities lightened, is a possession guy. He tends to hang onto the puck or go get the puck. AA doesn't do that. AA wants a pass from the D to spring him to do something offensively. Helm will grind to get a puck. If you could tell me that AA would do a fraction of what Helm does (winning battles, fighting for loose pucks), sure, let him be the replacement.

Helm is not a possession guy. The only time he ever looked like a possession guy is when he played with Datsyuk, but Datsyuk made everyone look like a possession guy.

With Datsyuk gone last year, they were very comparable from a possession stand point. Both guys are great at gaining the zone, and then don't do much in the zone.

16-17

AA - 48.1 CF%
Helm - 48.0 CF%

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

With all the bad deals he's signed, and the overall trend of on-ice success these last five years, yet there hasn't been a whisper of Holland being on the hot seat...

...but you think that the above scenario would've put him on the chopping block? I don't see it. This town (unfortunately) keeps every sort of personnel around far too long, with a very very long leash before the heat gets turned up.

I know there are some deals that were bad from the moment pen touched paper. However, the majority of the bad deals are bad in hindsight. Or bad because the guys hit the ice here and their groins tore in half or their fingers turned to powder. And the deals like Z and Franzen aren't bad at all... they're NHL screw the pooch specials. If the league didn't have a bug up its ass about wanting to show owners and and GMs how big their winkies were, they'd have grandfathered in the deals like any reasonable negotiation would. They wouldn't go back and change the rules on contracts that they accepted as valid.

But "trend of on-ice success", he's lost in the past five years a potential HoF #1C (who boned him on the way out) and definitely a top 5D of all time. He's had his replacement #1D hit a wall in a drastic way and the other #1C literally break his back trying to carry the roster.

And also, I think it is a combination of things. Mr. I wasn't going to undertake a rebuild being 85 years old and practically at death's door for about three-four years before he went. There was a reasonable expectation that they'd take a step back what with losing a league legend and a bonafide #1C even at 37 years old... without the opportunity to draft high to replace him.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Helm is not a possession guy. The only time he ever looked like a possession guy is when he played with Datsyuk, but Datsyuk made everyone look like a possession guy.

With Datsyuk gone last year, they were very comparable from a possession stand point. Both guys are great at gaining the zone, and then don't do much in the zone.

16-17

AA - 48.1 CF%
Helm - 48.0 CF%

I stand corrected on the possession stats. However, I remember watching them both. Helm is more likely to go on after it and fight a board battle or go into a dirty area or actually try to use his speed to break something up. I don't remember seeing that out of AA.

Yes, it's anecdotal evidence, but the two just don't seem to be similar players to me.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I know there are some deals that were bad from the moment pen touched paper. However, the majority of the bad deals are bad in hindsight. Or bad because the guys hit the ice here and their groins tore in half or their fingers turned to powder. And the deals like Z and Franzen aren't bad at all... they're NHL screw the pooch specials. If the league didn't have a bug up its ass about wanting to show owners and and GMs how big their winkies were, they'd have grandfathered in the deals like any reasonable negotiation would. They wouldn't go back and change the rules on contracts that they accepted as valid.

But "trend of on-ice success", he's lost in the past five years a potential HoF #1C (who boned him on the way out) and definitely a top 5D of all time. He's had his replacement #1D hit a wall in a drastic way and the other #1C literally break his back trying to carry the roster.

And also, I think it is a combination of things. Mr. I wasn't going to undertake a rebuild being 85 years old and practically at death's door for about three-four years before he went. There was a reasonable expectation that they'd take a step back what with losing a league legend and a bonafide #1C even at 37 years old... without the opportunity to draft high to replace him.

All of those things were entirely predictable, minus Kronwall's knee issues.

And the Abby and Helm deals are exceptionally bad not only because of term and AAV, but because of the state of the team when those deals were handed out. I don't fault Holland for wanting to lock up Z and Franzen in 2009. But to sign Abby and Helm to those deals in 2016 is baffling. Or at least in complete denial of the team's future.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

All of those things were entirely predictable, minus Kronwall's knee issues.

And the Abby and Helm deals are exceptionally bad not only because of term and AAV, but because of the state of the team when those deals were handed out. I don't fault Holland for wanting to lock up Z and Franzen in 2009. But to sign Abby and Helm to those deals in 2016 is baffling. Or at least in complete denial of the team's future.

It was. And I'm not trying to defend the signings as even passable moves. Just trying to wrap my head around WHY they were signed. Not if it was a good idea or bad idea. I mean, there was some line of thinking in his head beyond "I really like Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader is a Michigan boy." Of course nobody will ever countenance that there is anything behind it but nepotism and a Michigan fetish and all that, so I'm done banging my head on a wall.

 

[Frk It]

I stand corrected on the possession stats. However, I remember watching them both. Helm is more likely to go on after it and fight a board battle or go into a dirty area or actually try to use his speed to break something up. I don't remember seeing that out of AA.

Yes, it's anecdotal evidence, but the two just don't seem to be similar players to me.

I don't think they have the same strengths and weaknesses necessarily, but I think they amount to at least an equivalent player and possession player at the end of the day.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I don't think they have the same strengths and weaknesses necessarily, but I think they amount to at least an equivalent player and possession player at the end of the day.

Yeah. I get that. I just think that it isn't as simple as Helm out, AA in. I actually think that Luke Glendening should have been more of a Helm replacement as a bottom six C. Helm is kinda redundant because they've lightened his defensive load and therefore killed the unique value he brought. I know that they kinda had to because he's turning into quite the glass cannon nowadays.

I don't deny that they should have moved on from Helm in that FA period, but I don't think that AA has anything to do with Helm, at least not the way he plays currently.

 

[jkutswings]

I don't think they have the same strengths and weaknesses necessarily, but I think they amount to at least an equivalent player and possession player at the end of the day.

This. Even if they go about it in different ways, if you have one (sub-elite) player who's about to get significantly more expensive, and you can maintain a relatively equivalent overall success level by replacing him with a much cheaper option, you do it every single time.

Loyalty is for stars that still have productive years left in them, not glue guys where you can find another way to skin a proverbial cat.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

This. Even if they go about it in different ways, if you have one (sub-elite) player who's about to get significantly more expensive, and you can maintain a relatively equivalent overall success level by replacing him with a much cheaper option, you do it every single time.

Loyalty is for stars that still have productive years left in them, not glue guys where you can find another way to skin a proverbial cat.

I don't think you retain an equivalent overall success level if you replace Darren Helm with Andreas Athanasiou without changing up a whole lot else.

What the Patroits do works because they replace pass rush end with pass rush end. They replace Wes Welker (slot receiver) with Danny Amendola (slot receiver). They determine a guy's strength and find a replacement with the same strength.

 

[Frk It]

delete

 

[jkutswings]

I don't think you retain an equivalent overall success level if you replace Darren Helm with Andreas Athanasiou without changing up a whole lot else.

What the Patroits do works because they replace pass rush end with pass rush end. They replace Wes Welker (slot receiver) with Danny Amendola (slot receiver). They determine a guy's strength and find a replacement with the same strength.

But in the NFL, you have a 53 man roster, with plenty of bodies to specialize in niche roles, and 11 guys on the field at any given time. In hockey, all players play multiple facets of the game, at least to an extent, so everybody is some amalgamation of various assets.

AA scores more. Helm defends better. Neither is top notch. One is cheaper, and, in general, finding defense from a forward is cheaper to replace than finding scoring.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

It was. And I'm not trying to defend the signings as even passable moves. Just trying to wrap my head around WHY they were signed. Not if it was a good idea or bad idea. I mean, there was some line of thinking in his head beyond "I really like Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader is a Michigan boy." Of course nobody will ever countenance that there is anything behind it but nepotism and a Michigan fetish and all that, so I'm done banging my head on a wall.

Well if you figure out, please let me know.

I agree. I think the "Michigan boy" played some small factor from a marketing perspective, as probably did a personal relationship with Helm, but more than anything I think they were patchwork moves by a very conservative GM. Without those guys, what would the roster look like in 4 or 5 years? Z would be gone, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Franzen. All gone.

So my leading theory is it was to try and give some continuity to the roster and to a lesser degree to have some faces to put in the advertisements. This team is completely devoid of a core so he had to go to the next tier and lock up middle-tier players who are ultimately replaceable, and overpaid to do it. It's not as terrible of a contract but you can lump Dekeyser in there too.

Holland is a master at tweaking good rosters but the team needs so much more than that. And now with the cap and as a bottom dweller it's a lot harder to lure people here. Instead of Rafalski replacing Schneider, we get Witkowski replacing Ott.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

But in the NFL, you have a 53 man roster, with plenty of bodies to specialize in niche roles, and 11 guys on the field at any given time. In hockey, all players play multiple facets of the game, at least to an extent, so everybody is some amalgamation of various assets.

AA scores more. Helm defends better. Neither is top notch. One is cheaper, and, in general, finding defense from a forward is cheaper to replace than finding scoring.

I'm not saying the Wings shouldn't have let Helm walk. Far from it.

I just think that you're mistaken if you think they would have just plugged AA into his role. It wouldn't be 3.85M out and 1.9M or so in.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Well if you figure out, please let me know.

I agree. I think the "Michigan boy" played some small factor from a marketing perspective, as probably did a personal relationship with Helm, but more than anything I think they were patchwork moves by a very conservative GM. Without those guys, what would the roster look like in 4 or 5 years? Z would be gone, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Franzen. All gone.

So my leading theory is it was to try and give some continuity to the roster and to a lesser degree to have some faces to put in the advertisements. This team is completely devoid of a core so he had to go to the next tier and lock up middle-tier players who are ultimately replaceable, and overpaid to do it. It's not as terrible of a contract but you can lump Dekeyser in there too.

Holland is a master at tweaking good rosters but the team needs so much more than that. And now with the cap and as a bottom dweller it's a lot harder to lure people here. Instead of Rafalski replacing Schneider, we get Witkowski replacing Ott.

With Abby, I'm leaning towards they think he is captain material. I mean, EVERY team he's played on in international tournaments has done exactly with him what the Wings have done. They value what he does very highly.

Hell, I don't even think any of our fanbase would have been that upset (I mean, some would because you can't please everyone) if he had gotten say 4 years, 4.25M. He got more money AND term than people are comfortable with. Which especially because he plays as physical as he does is damning. He's on the edge of being worth 4.25M in the here and now. Five, six, seven years in the future Abdelkader stands no chance of being worth that. He'll either start shying away from contact eventually or just be so beat to hell he's not worth anything.

 

[jkutswings]

With Abby, I'm leaning towards they think he is captain material. I mean, EVERY team he's played on in international tournaments has done exactly with him what the Wings have done. They value what he does very highly.

Hell, I don't even think any of our fanbase would have been that upset (I mean, some would because you can't please everyone) if he had gotten say 4 years, 4.25M. He got more money AND term than people are comfortable with. Which especially because he plays as physical as he does is damning. He's on the edge of being worth 4.25M in the here and now. Five, six, seven years in the future Abdelkader stands no chance of being worth that. He'll either start shying away from contact eventually or just be so beat to hell he's not worth anything.

Personally, I'm one of those few who would've still been upset, but ignoring that, you're still talking about a 43% reduction in term, which works out to an even bigger percentage in effective return on resources, when you account for routine decline in performance over time.

I say this to underscore just how badly I think they oversigned the guy. He literally got an extra half a contract, versus what he probably deserved.

 

[HockeyinHD]

If I tell you tomorrow there's a 29 year old 6'2" 220 lb power forward who kills penalties, hits, fights, and has scored 42 goals over his past two regular seasons coming up as a UFA there is not a single person in the entire known universe who says "you know what, I'm tapping out of the bidding at 4 x 4."

Knowing it's Abdelkader, and considering that familiarity, there are fans here who would... because here like few other places familiarity breeds contempt.

 

[jkutswings]

If I tell you tomorrow there's a 29 year old 6'2" 220 lb power forward who kills penalties, hits, fights, and has scored 42 goals over his past two regular seasons coming up as a UFA there is not a single person in the entire known universe who says "you know what, I'm tapping out of the bidding at 4 x 4."

Knowing it's Abdelkader, and considering that familiarity, there are fans here who would... because here like few other places familiarity breeds contempt.

Even at his best, Abby wasn't in the mold of a traditional power forward at all. The guy was much more a Maltby with some extra scoring, than a junior version of a Tkachuk or a Shanahan.

The notion of paying him as a potential power forward was flawed to begin with, because his identity was 'talented pest', not 'future 4-star forward'.

 

[Frk It]

If I tell you tomorrow there's a 29 year old 6'2" 220 lb power forward who kills penalties, hits, fights, and has scored 42 goals over his past two regular seasons coming up as a UFA there is not a single person in the entire known universe who says "you know what, I'm tapping out of the bidding at 4 x 4."

Knowing it's Abdelkader, and considering that familiarity, there are fans here who would... because here like few other places familiarity breeds contempt.

When you remove all of the context (that strongly suggests that the production might not be sustainable), sure...

 

[jkutswings]

When you remove all of the context (that strongly suggests that the production might not be sustainable), sure...

Kris Draper should've always been paid as a 30 goal scorer who excelled at faceoffs and played Selke level defense.