Art Ross thread (2018/19)

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AvsFan29

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It’s more likely that Rantanen slows down and McDavid heats up than most other situations.

McDavid hasn’t even really gone on one of his crazy hot steaks yet. He’s been kind of unlucky the last few games as he’s hit a number of posts. I expect we’ll see him catch fire at some point.
His current pace is around the same as his hot streak from last year. He's already hot.
 

42

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It’s more likely that Rantanen slows down and McDavid heats up than most other situations.

McDavid hasn’t even really gone on one of his crazy hot steaks yet. He’s been kind of unlucky the last few games as he’s hit a number of posts. I expect we’ll see him catch fire at some point.
McDavid doesn't need to heat up. Rantanen will slow down; all McDavid needs to do is maintain his current pace, which he is perfectly capable of doing.
 
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koyvoo

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Me too. The stats aren't on McDavids side this year. He could still win, but he'd have to probably crush his career high, and get lucky with other players slowing down.

If he wins it will be his most impressive win by far.
It’ll pretty much be no more or more no less impressive than last year.

Last year at this time he was down by 9 to Kucherov and people also pointed out that Kucherov would need to also “slow down by this much” on top of McDavid heating up and it happened.

It’s really very simple why he’s the favourite. Until he has the biggest sample size of not slowly my down, he’s got to be considered the least likely to slow down.
 

AvsFan29

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It’ll pretty much be no more or more no less impressive than last year.

Last year at this time he was down by 9 to Kucherov and people also pointed out that Kucherov would need to also “slow down by this much” on top of McDavid heating up and it happened.

It’s really very simple why he’s the favourite. Until he has the biggest sample size of not slowly my down, he’s got to be considered the least likely to slow down.
MacKinnon has put up points at a faster rate than McDavid over the last 115 games.

He needs Mack, Rantanen, and Kucherov to slow down. It could happen but I wouldn't say it's likely.
 
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TheGuiminator

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It's comments like this that really have me rooting for anyone else. ;)

I kept hearing Crosby was a lock for the Calder and would win award after award during his younger years as well.........

I’m not rooting for Mcdavid myself, I’m a die hard Crosby fan, but Connor is another level, he’s gonna put up 30 points in the last 15 games of the season and run away with the Art Ross
 

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McDavid oiSH% this year 10.6%, career = 10.6%
Kucherov oiSH% this year 11.9%, career 10.3%
Rantanen oiSH% this year 13.2%, career 9.9% (last year he broke out with 84 points and was 10.5%)
MacKinnon oiSH% this year 12.8%, career 9.9% (last year was 11.9%)

Of these 4, McDavid is the most likely to continue current production. Kucherov the 2nd most and Rantanen the least likely.

This is of course about EV production but since more of the production comes from EV, we can use this to loosely predict ROS production.
 

koyvoo

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MacKinnon has put up points at a faster rate than McDavid over the last 115 games.

He needs Mack, Rantanen, and Kucherov to slow down. It could happen but I wouldn't say it's likely.
Yes but 230 games is still more than 115.

As unlikely as it may be, McDavid is still the least likely to take a dip since he’s he’s got the longest record of not taking a dip.
 
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GlitchMarner

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I'll still be shocked if Rantanen wins it. If McDavid doesn't outscore him, Kuch or MacK will. When is the last time a guy came out of nowhere to win the Ross in a season where a lot of guys were scoring at a high level?

(Benn in 2015 doesn't count. That was a terrible season in terms of Art Ross competition).
 

AvsFan29

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I'll still be shocked if Rantanen wins it. If McDavid doesn't outscore him, Kuch or MacK will. When is the last time a guy came out of nowhere to win the Ross in a season where a lot of guys were scoring at a high level?

(Benn in 2015 doesn't count. That was a terrible season in terms of Art Ross competition).
He had 84 points last year
 

AvsFan29

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McDavid oiSH% this year 10.6%, career = 10.6%
Kucherov oiSH% this year 11.9%, career 10.3%
Rantanen oiSH% this year 13.2%, career 9.9% (last year he broke out with 84 points and was 10.5%)
MacKinnon oiSH% this year 12.8%, career 9.9% (last year was 11.9%)

Of these 4, McDavid is the most likely to continue current production. Kucherov the 2nd most and Rantanen the least likely.

This is of course about EV production but since more of the production comes from EV, we can use this to loosely predict ROS production.
Macks and Rantanens stats are wildly skewed by that 48 point season 3 years ago. Going with last season's numbers is more accurate
 

Regal

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It's at 3.06gpg, last year it was at 2.97gpg. It's up, but not in a significant way. It's nearly negligible.

These top players are just really good.

There's currently 42 players at PPG or above (min 20 games). Last year at the same time, there were 27. The top 10 scorers at this time last year had a combined 433 points. This year, the 11-20 scorers nearly match that at 429. League average scoring isn't up significantly, but it's pretty clear that top players are scoring more for whatever reason. And it's not just Rantanen and MacK.
 
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42

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Macks and Rantanens stats are wildly skewed by that 48 point season 3 years ago. Going with last season's numbers is more accurate
Everyone's stats are skewed by their worst career years. By your logic, I should use McDavid's and Kucherov's stats from last year too and what do you know, both of theirs from last year are higher than their career average.
 

AvsFan29

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I know and that's very good, but he's on pace to obliterate that this season. He wasn't a serious AR threat last season.
This is his 3rd NHL season, and he plays with MacKinnon who has also elevated his game by a mile.
 

AvsFan29

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Everyone's stats are skewed by their worst career years. By your logic, I should use McDavid's and Kucherov's stats from last year too and what do you know, both of theirs from last year are higher than their career average.
Ok well Rantanen had 38 points in his first 84 games, and has 143 points in his last 118 games.

He's currently having the best season since Crosby in 2010.

Pick whatever numbers you want, my point is the first season isn't going to accurately portray his current level of production or skills.

Same with MacKinnon.
 

AvsFan29

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There's currently 42 players at PPG or above (min 20 games). Last year at the same time, there were 27. The top 10 scorers at this time last year had a combined 433 points. This year, the 10-20 scorers nearly match that at 429. League average scoring isn't up significantly, but it's pretty clear that top players are scoring more for whatever reason. And it's not just Rantanen and MacK.
Yah without a doubt the top players are scoring more. I think it might have to do with a new "wave" of better young talent. Not exactly sure
 

AvsFan29

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koyvoo

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It should also be noted that Kucherov has 157 pts in his past 117 games dating back to last season.
 

AvsFan29

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It should also be noted that Kucherov has 157 pts in his past 117 games dating back to last season.
Yep. Kuch / Mack / Rants / McDavid have combined for 613 points since the start of last season.
 

Flo Pro

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It's at 3.06gpg, last year it was at 2.97gpg. It's up, but not in a significant way. It's nearly negligible.

These top players are just really good.

0.1 gpg is still a significant increase. Each team plays 82 games in a season that is an extra 4 goals/season/team so for all 31 teams it adds up to around another 124 goals and maybe 124 assists? that makes an extra 248 points per year.
 

AvsFan29

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0.1 gpg is still a significant increase. Each team plays 82 games in a season that is an extra 4 goals/season/team so for all 31 teams it adds up to around another 124 goals and maybe 124 assists? that makes an extra 248 points per year.
Not nearly enough to account for the top 10 guys being on such crazy paces
 

Future GOAT

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McDavid hasn't been any closer than 3 points after 5 games this entire season.

Maybe check your numbers before you accuse me of spouting nonsense.
He has, he tied him for a brief moment before the Oilers had a long break and the Avs were playing a couple games shortly after. You should know this though as I'm sure you're checking the point leaders list every day.
 
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