Art Ross: McDavid or the field?

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  • Total voters
    344

daver

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Apr 4, 2003
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It should when it's not the basis for the discussion yet you insist on trying to frame it that way anway, and are unwilling to consider how well underlying numbers work for future prediction, instead relying on tired tropes about stars scoring regardless, and ignoring the fact that star player scoring will routinely fluctuate and can frequently be tied to those numbers.

His ES scoring was worse in '17 because he produced fewer chances. His on-ice shooting percentage has remained the same throughout his career at a reasonable number for a player of his ability. This suggests sustainability and growth in terms of his ES play. You want to look at past players and how their ES and PP numbers frequently even out, with a spike in one often balanced by a decrease in the other, and this switching or balancing in future years. But you either ignore or are unwilling to pay attention to the fact that this can usually be seen in high percentages in one and low in the other. And career years will often show a spike in one and usual numbers in the other or spikes for both. This isn't the case for McDavid last year. His numbers suggest sustainability at even strength and and that the PP was an aberration. This is why there is a greater likelihood of him improving his numbers than most players who have put up similar uneven splits in the past. His underlying numbers suggest it was a down year. The fact he still won the Art Ross is a testament to his ability.

You bring up reasons for why he might not improve and they're valid. There is no guarantee. But the stats tell me that it's more likely he will see an increase, and that's a lot more meaningful than the same old regurgitation of potential negative scenarios from someone who so obviously has skin in the game.

My original point in these discussions is to clarify that McDavid's point production in 17/18 was statistically not better than the previous year relative to the field. This doesn't mean I don't think he can improve or your arguments are not valid, I just disagree with the concept of putting more value or less value on statistical production based on "what if" scenarios.

It was a very unusual year for McDavid but that seems to be par for the course for some of the great players; unusual circumstances that leave us wondering what could have been.
 

daver

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Apr 4, 2003
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This is literally a speculation thread about the Art Ross winner this year, and yet you criticize reasonable, statistical speculation as if it's throwing mud at the wall to see what sticks. This is where your bias is so painfully evident. You're so concerned with people giving credit for things McDavid hasn't accomplished that you lose sight of the entire point of the thread. Yet I'm pretty sure you've predicted Crosby to improve his totals this year based on the idea that he was coasting in the regular season last year. Even though that type of speculation is far more subjective

There is a difference between speculating about what a season could have been and what a season could be.

I haven't made any predictions around Crosby. I expect the gameplan is the same as the year before, get the team positioned for a deep playoff run.
 
Apr 27, 2016
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If someone can beat McDavid, it's Matthews. I know it's only hot start, and his numbers will come down but after this season there won't be discussion about "he had never hit 70 points" or "being ppg for 62 games doesn't mean he can do it for whole season". Let's just hope he stays healthy. Because of him and few other players, I'm starting to like the whole Leafs team.
Ps voted for McDavid tho.
 

BeastoftheEast85

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Dec 31, 2010
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I think MacKinnon can give a healthy McDavid a run this season if his line keeps going.

If McDavid doesn’t win it, Mack is a top contender. But I still Kuch as the number 2 threat based on the last couple years.

Also, like any true post lockout Av Mack is likely to follow the pattern of following every great year with an off one.
 

stl76

No. 5 in your programs, No. 1 in your hearts
Jul 2, 2015
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McDavid has by far the highest chance of winning of any individual player, but always bet the field. Injuries, someone else having a crazy year, etc.

That said, I think McDavid will win. :laugh:
 

Taluss

Registered User
Jul 28, 2018
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This is literally a speculation thread about the Art Ross winner this year, and yet you criticize reasonable, statistical speculation as if it's throwing mud at the wall to see what sticks. This is where your bias is so painfully evident. You're so concerned with people giving credit for things McDavid hasn't accomplished that you lose sight of the entire point of the thread. Yet I'm pretty sure you've predicted Crosby to improve his totals this year based on the idea that he was coasting in the regular season last year. Even though that type of speculation is far more subjective

He wasn’t “coasting.” You look at his recent years and you will notice his points are very consistent besides 1 peak yr I believe 2yrs ago. He hasn’t shown anything to prove he is going to change it
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
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If someone can beat McDavid, it's Matthews. I know it's only hot start, and his numbers will come down but after this season there won't be discussion about "he had never hit 70 points" or "being ppg for 62 games doesn't mean he can do it for whole season". Let's just hope he stays healthy. Because of him and few other players, I'm starting to like the whole Leafs team.
Ps voted for McDavid tho.

I still think Matthews will be over 20 points behind him by seasons end, but he could finish 2nd-5th in points for sure.
 

Varan

Registered User
Nov 27, 2016
6,467
4,771
Toronto, Ontario
This is literally a speculation thread about the Art Ross winner this year, and yet you criticize reasonable, statistical speculation as if it's throwing mud at the wall to see what sticks. This is where your bias is so painfully evident. You're so concerned with people giving credit for things McDavid hasn't accomplished that you lose sight of the entire point of the thread. Yet I'm pretty sure you've predicted Crosby to improve his totals this year based on the idea that he was coasting in the regular season last year. Even though that type of speculation is far more subjective
post is spot on Regal
 

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