Art Ross: McDavid or the field?

[Future GOAT]

Crosby has quite a few years better than that 102 point season though.

And they would all be subject to a point reduction. Crosby posting a 97 point pace in 16/17 puts him in the same general point production realm as early Crosby,

 

[Regal]

That isn't the question.

I think the thought is, if he's too good to be beaten if he's healthy and the odds are more likely he stays healthy than not, then he has better odds than the field. I'm not sure if that's true, but I think a similar thing could be said about Ovechkin and the Richard in recent years, and that's panned out well.

 

[Regal]

And they would all be subject to a point reduction. Crosby posting a 97 point pace in 16/17 puts him in the same general point production realm as early Crosby,

It's similar for healthy years (it's clearly behind his 10-11 to 12-13 injury years in pace), but still behind '07 and '14, and also the only year in the last 4 seasons he's scored at that level. I don't think he has the scoring consistency of his younger self anymore.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I think the thought is, if he's too good to be beaten if he's healthy and the odds are more likely he stays healthy than not, then he has better odds than the field. I'm not sure if that's true, but I think a similar thing could be said about Ovechkin and the Richard in recent years, and that's panned out well.

Yeah but he's not too good to be beaten. A 6 point win in 82 games is far from out of reach.

I also don't get the arguments about how scoring at the end of the season somehow makes it even better. Or ES - as if McDavid has no say in how good their PP is.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

I disagree. Crosby is just as good a point scorer as he's ever been. In 16/17 Crosby was a beast, he was on pace for 97 points in one of the lower scoring seasons in a while and challenged McDavid. Even Dom Luszczyszyn did the math and worked out that based on the way league scoring had dipped in the past decade, that Crosby's 102 point season would translate to 85 points in 16/17 which confirms my observations that he's still the same dominant Crosby who is actually even a bit better now. The only things holding him back from an Art Ross are injuries and McDavid.

Nah, he's a better two way player but his offense isn't what it used to be over a whole season. He can still bring it when needed (21 points in 12 playoff games), but at 31 doesn't have the stamina to keep it up over a whole season. From 2010-14 he was playing at a 1.5+ ppg level, and that time period was lower scoring than last year. He's not quite that player anymore. Or just the eye test would tell you he's not as dominant as he used to be.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

McDavid is the easy answer as long as he plays 75 games

 

[Regal]

Yeah but he's not too good to be beaten. A 6 point win in 82 games is far from out of reach.

I also don't get the arguments about how scoring at the end of the season somehow makes it even better. Or ES - as if McDavid has no say in how good their PP is.

I don't think he's too good to be beaten either, but I do think it's unlikely. While 6 points isn't much, the difference to me is that in order to get that close to McDavid, Giroux had to have everything go right for him, while McDavid didn't. While I agree that the end of season pace is meaningless, what's important about the PP for McDavid isn't that PP points matter less, it's that everything points to it being an outlier. The Oilers had a good PP the other season and a half with McDavid and he scored at an elite level those years, and they had an unusually low number of PPOs last year. And while it makes sense that McDavid's speed-based game wouldn't translate as well to the PP, he's too skilled in other areas to not still be great at it. I can't think of any forward who's among the best in the game who hasn't excelled on the PP. And while it's possible his ES points would go down, nothing in his underlying numbers suggest he's in for regression. His on-ice shooting percentage at ES in his career has been a consistent 10.5, 10.9, 10.5. He just produced more chances last year. While it's possible he could have an unlucky year at ES, it's unlikely it would coincide with another unlucky year on the PP, which is why it seems likely he would stay on top.

I'm not usually one to bet against the field, but I'm really leaning toward it with McDavid

 

[OilCanada92]

I don't think he's too good to be beaten either, but I do think it's unlikely. While 6 points isn't much, the difference to me is that in order to get that close to McDavid, Giroux had to have everything go right for him, while McDavid didn't. While I agree that the end of season pace is meaningless, what's important about the PP for McDavid isn't that PP points matter less, it's that everything points to it being an outlier. The Oilers had a good PP the other season and a half with McDavid and he scored at an elite level those years, and they had an unusually low number of PPOs last year. And while it makes sense that McDavid's speed-based game wouldn't translate as well to the PP, he's too skilled in other areas to not still be great at it. I can't think of any forward who's among the best in the game who hasn't excelled on the PP. And while it's possible his ES points would go down, nothing in his underlying numbers suggest he's in for regression. His on-ice shooting percentage at ES in his career has been a consistent 10.5, 10.9, 10.5. He just produced more chances last year. While it's possible he could have an unlucky year at ES, it's unlikely it would coincide with another unlucky year on the PP, which is why it seems likely he would stay on top.

I'm not usually one to bet against the field, but I'm really leaning toward it with McDavid

I think the end of the season pace matters when we're talking about a 20 year old who is still developing and learning, and very capable of being significantly better at the end of a season than he was at the beginning.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Yeah but he's not too good to be beaten. A 6 point win in 82 games is far from out of reach.

I also don't get the arguments about how scoring at the end of the season somehow makes it even better. Or ES - as if McDavid has no say in how good their PP is.

I do agree that you can't assume good pp numbers would automatically stack onto his stellar ES numbers. Context is always required, and if the pp was actually good he may feel less pressure to go all out at ES.

 

[Cup or Bust]

If McDavid is healthy I will have to go with him. He is a better player then he was 2 years ago, and better then he was at the start of last season, so I have no reason to believe he wont win it. He is stronger, shoots better, and his decision making ability between when to pass and when to shoot has improved. He is also starting the season with some some guys he has some chemistry with. I expect a better season then last year.

 

[daver]

Crosby didn't have to go up against Crosby. Mcdavid does.

Was going to make a comment but saw that Future GOAT liked your post so it would be a moot point.

 

[daver]

It's true that Crosby isn't what he once was but scoring from the high end players being lower in recent years (before last season) also plays a part in his totals being lower.

Crosby PPG rankings...
2006: 6th best ppg
2007: 1st
2008: 2nd
2009: 3rd
2010: 4th
2011: 1st (only 41 games)
2012: 1st (only 22 games)
2013: 1st (only 36 games)
2014: 1st
-
2015: 1st
2016: 4th (McDavid 3rd)
2017: 2nd (McDavid 1st)
2018: 12th (but 21 points in 12 playoff games)

So I'd say last season was an off year but he's still dominating. Take McDavid out of the league and he has two 1st place and another top 3 finish in the last 4 seasons.

Strictly based on PPG ranking, Crosby was superior to McDavid's best in 06/07, maybe 07/08, maybe 09/10, 10/11 to 13/14. You are wrong if you think McDavid has faced Crosby at his best.

Looking at dominant PPGs since 2005, McDavid's best has been below Crosby's, Malkin's, OV's, Kane's, Thornton's and Jagr's best.

 

[Voight]

Should challenge. Longest offseason he’s had in years

Had an even longer off season in 2015, didn't win the next year.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Had an even longer off season in 2015, didn't win the next year.

Came top 3

 

[snipes]

Strictly based on PPG ranking, Crosby was superior to McDavid's best in 06/07, maybe 07/08, maybe 09/10, 10/11 to 13/14. You are wrong if you think McDavid has faced Crosby at his best.

Looking at dominant PPGs since 2005, McDavid's best has been below Crosby's, Malkin's, OV's, Kane's, Thornton's and Jagr's best.

...McDavid is only 21

 

[Voight]

Came top 3

didn't win.

 

[Future GOAT]

Nah, he's a better two way player but his offense isn't what it used to be over a whole season. He can still bring it when needed (21 points in 12 playoff games), but at 31 doesn't have the stamina to keep it up over a whole season. From 2010-14 he was playing at a 1.5+ ppg level, and that time period was lower scoring than last year. He's not quite that player anymore. Or just the eye test would tell you he's not as dominant as he used to be.

I disagree. From the eye test and adjustments Crosby is in the same ballpark offensively and even better now elsewhere. Those point paces from his injured years are heavily skewed due to small amount of games played. It would have come back down to Earth like it did for Kucherov last season when he was on pace for 140+ around the same mark but actually played almost the full season. Crosby's 16/17 season pace is more legit because he missed a marginal amount of games in comparison and would have most likely scored 97 points give or take.

Going by Dom Luszczyszyn's adjustments that would be around 112 points in 08.

 

[IceNeophyte]

Art Ross will go to Brendan Lipstick this season. Put your paycheck on it.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

I disagree. From the eye test and adjustments Crosby is in the same ballpark offensively and even better now elsewhere. Those point paces from his injured years are heavily skewed due to small amount of games played. It would have come back down to Earth like it did for Kucherov last season when he was on pace for 140+ around the same mark but actually played almost the full season. Crosby's 16/17 season pace is more legit because he missed a marginal amount of games in comparison and would have most likely scored 97 points give or take.

I've watched every game of his career. He's not as good of a point producer at age 30 as he was at 24, not sure how that's so hard to believe. He had a 25 game point streak where he put up 50 points in 10-11. Today's Crosby is not capable of that.

 

[Future GOAT]

I've watched every game of his career. He's not as good of a point producer at age 30 as he was at 24, not sure how that's so hard to believe. He had a 25 game point streak where he put up 50 points in 10-11. Today's Crosby is not capable of that.

I've watched every game too. Just because my avatar is of McDavid, doesn't mean I don't watch who was the best player in the game every game before McDavid arrived. I still watch Crosby and I disagree with you. We can agree to disagree.

 

[daver]

...McDavid is only 21

And? The point was he hasn't been beating Crosby at his best as the other poster was trying to argue. Looking Art Ross wins since 2005, he has two average Art Ross wins so far.

 

[Regal]

I think the end of the season pace matters when we're talking about a 20 year old who is still developing and learning, and very capable of being significantly better at the end of a season than he was at the beginning.

It's possible, but players always go through hot and cold streaks during a season. I would be hesitant to frame it as anything more for a player already as established as McDavid, even if he's that young

 

[Regal]

I disagree. From the eye test and adjustments Crosby is in the same ballpark offensively and even better now elsewhere. Those point paces from his injured years are heavily skewed due to small amount of games played. It would have come back down to Earth like it did for Kucherov last season when he was on pace for 140+ around the same mark but actually played almost the full season. Crosby's 16/17 season pace is more legit because he missed a marginal amount of games in comparison and would have most likely scored 97 points give or take.

Going by Dom Luszczyszyn's adjustments that would be around 115-117 points in 08.

Where are these adjustments? Because I've seen/done quite a few and that doesn't make a ton of sense

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

McDavid is going through his prime offensive years, like we've seen historically elite players tend to put up most of their biggest point totals when they're young.

So even if there's the injury factor, i can't go against Connor here.

 

[82Ninety42011]

McDavid as he did it 2 years running and he's not even hit his prime yet. Not to mention the talent around him is getting better I say he breaks 120 this season.