Around the NHL XXXVI - Final Countdown: 2018 edition

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Micklebot, Nov 21, 2018.

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  1. Xspyrit

    Xspyrit Registered User

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    In terms of assets, things were looking very good before 2016-17. I believe that’s what Dorion started with (sure the team went to the ECF but that was 90% Murray built)

    Hoffman-Zibanejad-Stone
    MacArthur-Turris-Ryan
    Smith-Pageau-Dzingel
    Chiasson-Lazar-Neil

    Methot-Karlsson
    Phaneuf-Ceci
    Borowiecki-Wideman
    Claesson

    Anderson, Hammond

    And a pretty good prospect pool (Chabot, Brown, White, Perron, Wolanin, Jaros, Dahlen, Chlapik, Daccord, Lajoie, Harpur)

    2016 Senators Prospects Top 30 + Past Rankings

    MacArthur unfortunately got injured and never really got back outside of the playoff run. Dorion never got a replacement for Mac (however you need a permission to spend for that, but did Dorion think Burrows would?)

    He also traded Chiasson right away for a player (Sieloff) that never amounted to anything. Could have been patient with him; he’s a much better player than he was seen here, but of course you need the coaching. Could have been solid in the bottom-6. Might have not needed to trade for Burrows then.

    Neil was on the verge of retirement, do you have to give a prospect like Dahlen to get a replacement (Burrows)

    Lazar didn’t work out? Ok trade him for a pick and promote Colin White or Nick Paul. And spend a late pick to solidify your bottom-6 and get a Wingels. Don’t need to go as far and pay Dahlen for Burrows.

    Prepare yourself to D-core changes, Phaneuf will eventually decline and you might lose Methot to the ED. Get him back. Spend an asset. Claesson was not ready and good enough for those duties, you put him in a position to fail. Same for Oduya who had a pretty solid hockey career and you threw him into the wolves in his last year.

    So if Claesson and Oduya can’t replace Phaneuf and Methot, who had to pay the price with a crazy increase of responsibilities? Cody Ceci, another D-man we kinda destroyed

    Chabot was about to graduate but at that point, there was already too many holes on defense.

    Also, had to look for life after Andy (and Hammond who showed signs in 2015-16 that he was a flash in the pan, instead of spending assets on Burrows and Stalberg, get a young goalie with potential?

    All that was prior to the Hoffman-Karlsson debacle.

    Melnyk deserves a lot of blame for this downfall but Dorion kinda accelerated it drastically. It’s incredible, Murray must be so pissed off wherever he is.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2019
  2. Sens of Anarchy

    Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    Can't say I disagree at all. Marner can drive his line and the pp.
     
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  3. Philadelphia Collins

    Philadelphia Collins Registered User

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    Probably for the best they can’t draft Hughes this year, can you imagine Ottawa having to pay a superstar forward like Matthews lmao
     
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  4. BondraTime

    BondraTime Registered User

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    Dubas is going to be giving Marner a big contract as well, ~40 million, long term, for 4 guys (all forwards at that) isn't a recipe for success.

    Marners camp already coming out and saying that the Leafs are trying to lowball him.

    To put it in comparison, those 4 guys would be making 10 million less than all of Ottawa's forwards and D are currently making, and would be making more than all of Ottawa's forwards are currently making.
     
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  5. stempniaksen

    stempniaksen Registered User

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    I know something will have to give when the Leafs inevitably sign Marner, but looking at the numbers right now it's insane to see how cap crunched they'll be.

    ~40 million on 4 forwards
    ~50 million on 6 forwards (+Marleau/Kadri)
    ~70 million on 6 forwards, 3 D and 1 G (+Andersen/Rielly/Muzzin/Zaitsev)

    Would give them roughly $13 million to fill 10-12 spots (not counting Hyman/Brown who make $2+ million each and Kapanen/Johnsson who would be RFA's).
     
  6. FolignoQuantumLeap

    FolignoQuantumLeap Don't Hold The Door

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    All they have to do is move Nylander and Zaitsev and they'll be pretty flexible. Zaitsev might be a little hard to move but they still have some decent prospects and picks to sell him off with. Nylander should return something pretty nice and if they're as competitive as I think they'll be lots of vets are gonna be willing to sign there at a discount for a chance at a cup and to play in Toronto.
     
  7. stempniaksen

    stempniaksen Registered User

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    I don't think they'll be looking to move Nylander, but admittedly that would solve some of their issues. I also think Zaitsev will be pretty hard to move, I'm not sure we've ever seen a cap dump with that kind of term moved, there would need to be a team out there that viewed him as an asset and I'm not convinced there's a fit.

    They are still really tight without Nylander/Zaitsev (and that's assuming they don't take any money back in those deals).

    ~$30(+) million on 3 forwards
    ~$15 million on the next 4 forwards
    ~$10 million on top 2D
    ~$6 million on goalies

    Would leave them with ~20 million to sign 5/6 forwards and 4/5 defencemen.

    ~8 million on Kapanen/Johnsson
    ~$3 million a 4th line
    ~$3 million (Dermott/Oziganov/Sandin)
    ~$2 million on depth (13F/7D)

    Leaves them with roughly ~4 million to sign (at least) one veteran defenceman.

    Hyman - Tavares - Marner
    Johansson - Mathews - Kapanen
    Marleau - Brown - Kadri
    Moore - Gauthier - Bracco
    Engvall

    Rielly - X (Pesce? Faulk?)
    Muzzin - Sandin
    Dermott - Oziganov
    Rosen/Borgman

    Andersen
    Sparks/UFA

    It's doable I guess, but it seems counter productive be "going for it" while going with that much youth on defence.
     
  8. BondraTime

    BondraTime Registered User

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    Sounds like Boyle is going to Nashville.
     
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  9. stempniaksen

    stempniaksen Registered User

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    For a 2nd.

    I know he's an entirely different type of player, but this has to set the baseline for a Dzingle return right? Thanks for setting the market Shero, I wonder if this kicks off a set of moves now.
     
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  10. BondraTime

    BondraTime Registered User

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    Boyle obviously isn't being traded for offence, but

    Boyle has 6 goals and 22 points with a 2.2 million price tag

    Dzingel has 20 goals and 39 points with a 1.8 million price tag

    Boyle is likely a guy teams look at as a "playoff" guy with 111 games, that has to be taken into account as well, and is incredible in the dot.
     
  11. SixthSens

    SixthSens RIP Fugu

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    Here's hoping.

    Dorion better be looking for at least a 1st or a 2nd + good prospect now.
     
  12. BonkTastic

    BonkTastic ಠ_ಠ

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    How did Boyle fetch a 2nd?

    I know it will be a late 2nd, but still.
     
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  13. Deku

    Deku bruh

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    Boyle is actually at 13 goals and 19 points. But I still think it bodes well for a Dzingel return.
     
  14. Hale The Villain

    Hale The Villain Registered User

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    Shero is a beast. Almost always gets great value in trades.

    He's the anti-Dorion.
     
  15. Icelevel

    Icelevel -+-+-*-+-*-+-=???

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    Probably getting ten 2nds back from Ottawa in the duchene for fiala deal
     
  16. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    They're actually not in that bad a situation, though. Outside of Marleau, who only has one year left, they have a ton of flexibility to make trades to bring in contributors who'll be on ELCs.

    Nylander, after this year, has a very reasonable cap hit and doesn't have trade protection. They can still turn around and trade him.
    Kadri, at $4.5 million/season is on a great deal, and only has a 10 team NTC. If they decide to trade him, 30 teams would be interested.
    Kapanen, if he can't be re-signed, has a ton of value in a trade.

    If they decide to move 2 of those 4 guys, they should have no problem getting back 3-4 NHL ready young players who can step in at low cost.

    They're also underpaying Rielly and Andersen.

    Their worst contract is Zaitsev, and at $4.5 million for a RD, he'd garner lots of interest as well.

    I think Dubas has committed to the Warriors for hockey strategy. Lock in your stars, and surround them with cheap, young talent. I think it's a good way to go.
     
  17. BonkTastic

    BonkTastic ಠ_ಠ

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    Jamie Mcclennan was just on Team1200, and suggested that the Leafs probably spend more on hockey ops than they do players.

    Not sure how much of that is truth and how much is exaggeration to suggest they spend a ton on front office expenditures, but it's a hell of a claim nonetheless, and a pretty good example of a line in the sand that divides the "haves" and the "have nots" in the league.
     
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  18. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    I imagine that it benefits them to spend massively when it comes to negotiations pertaining to revenue sharing.

    If they were just banking obscene profits instead of ‘investing it back into the team in large numbers’ I’d imagine that the league would be more inclined to change the numbers to help the struggling teams a little more.

    Might be like many government budgets, if you don’t find a way to spend it, it gets cut next year!
     
  19. FunkySeeFunkyDoo

    FunkySeeFunkyDoo Registered User

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    I don't believe for a second that they spend more on hockey ops than on player salaries.

    But for a team like the Sens, they should view spending more on hockey ops as a way to spend LESS on player salaries. The more good player personnel decisions you make, the more options you have which allows you to avoid the "we have to sign <player x>" situations.
     
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  20. stempniaksen

    stempniaksen Registered User

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    I had in "in" with one of their old executives and based on what he said this doesn't surprise me at all (well, hearing it's more than players is a bit surprising, but it's been well above $30 million in the past). They have specific "teams" as part of their management structure that I'm (pretty sure) have more people than the entire Senators front office (low bar to clear mind you).

    I mean, Babcock alone makes what? 5 or 6 million/year? And I know for a fact he's not the highest earning "executive" on that team.

    Would be interesting to see if the entire Sens front office (and execs and coaching staff) make as much as Babcock does by himself :laugh:
     
  21. bert

    bert Registered User

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    Yes I did use them as examples, they are great examples. Of course I am hung up on the term you overpay at the start to underpay at the end and buy UFA years its really not a complicated concept. Thats exactly why im using Eichel and Mcdavid as examples they bought the late years at a discount for overpaying now. Matthews is going to sign for 16 plus million when he re ups which makes it harder to fill up the roster depth with elite players in order to win cups. Players absolute primes as two way forwards appear to be 26 to 29 those are the years that they will have to sign him at a higher price point. He is 26 years old and a UFA at the end of this deal its bad timing. Why shouldnt they be looking at that point in time.... Washington and Pittsburgh just won cups with their super stars at that age the time to win is when the super stars are on their ELCS and they back end of their big contracts. Are you arguing otherwise if so please use some examples.

    Marleau is not an easy candidate he has a NMC. Kadri is a bargain of a contract so it makes their team worse to unload him, so how is that an example of them winning now by getting rid of really good players? It contradicts your earlier paragraph.

    Zaitsev is going to cost them assets to get rid of.

    Yes you build around those players but their cap hits at the end relative to the total cap number will be lower hence when they will really be able to compete. They arent going to be getting elite players through the draft the next 6 years or so because they are going to be an elite team so when you say you dont know what their team is going to look like in 6 years you are incorrect they have their stars thats who is going to carry them.

    How has it worked out for Chicago having little depth around their elite forwards? Even when they had Panarin, Kane and Toews they didnt get the job done.
     
  22. maclean

    maclean Registered User

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    Not sure how we can convince the states to raise their taxes
     
  23. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

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    What you're missing is that the same bonus will then be taxed in the states at whatever rate applies (Arizona for example. the combined state and fed tax would be around 42%). He can then claim a tax credit for the 15% he already paid to Canada.

    For the salary portion, he'd still be able to claim a tax credit, but only up to the 42% that the states are charging him, so he wouldn't pay any additional tax, but the bonus would in effect be taxed at the US rate while the salary would be taxed at the CAN rate. At least, that's the way I, as a non international taxation expert, understand it.
     
  24. OgieO

    OgieO Registered User

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    Likewise, as a non-international tax expert, I don't think that quote is accurate. But I definitely could be wrong. There is a 15% witholding tax on the bonus as a compliance measure but the key aspect would be whether or not he's a resident (183 days). If he's not a resident, I think that 15% would be credited against his US tax. I wouldn't expect Matthews to be hanging out in Canada over the summer, lol.
     
  25. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

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    came across this and though it was interesting

     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
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