NHL hockey is the hardest one to peg.
Like in the NBA, you know what the final 4 will look like at the start of the season. In the NHL, it could be anyone.
Like, if you ran a simulation 100 times last year, with Washington being down 0-2; how many of those have them winning the entire thing. I like most sims would have them out of the first round within the next 3-4 games.
Or if you ran a simulation for last Pittsburgh cup, how many of those have two goalies coming in, playing at a combined ~930 SV% and 2.0GGA? Like, if you ran the sim 100 times, I don't think you'd get that much at all, considering how many shots and chances that team surrendered.