Series Talk: Around the NHL - Playoff edition as Round #1 kicks off

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MattMartin

Killer Instinct™
Feb 10, 2007
17,438
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Long Island
I haven't heard the great D part that much, but maybe I've just missed that. The opinion that they have good structure & team D is something I have heard frequently. I would agree that they don't have that stud defender.

We don't have anybody that the league would recognize by name. We have some depth and a bunch of 2/3's. Boychuk got injured early and Andy Greene has played every game since. Boychuk has been healthy for about 5 games, but Greene has played so well we kept him in instead. Our bottom pairing is Greene and Leddy believe it or not. I doubt any of the D gets a Norris candidate anytime soon. It kinda reminds me of when we played in 2002 when we had Aucoin and Jonnson.
 

SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
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I think the Islanders defense is underrated.

No, it is vastly overrated. The defense is not much different than it was when they bled goals like crazy two years ago, and is still mediocre right now. They just are getting better goaltending and have a much better coach, so they are maximizing a bunch of 4/5 guys and guys like Pulock. It is like Pittsburgh when they won their Cups without Letang, except the Islanders have a worse offense.

Their defense has been solid, but having the best PDO at 5v5 certainly helps a lot more. If your goalies are making the saves and you can bury your opportunities, you will win games. Obviously having a good defense helps with those things, but if our series was any indication, it is far from a guarantee.

I had high hopes for Philly after the play in, but they are far too inconsistent. If the Islanders are anything, they can be consistent enough to be lucky, and lucky enough to win games. Washington and Philly had it set up on a platter... and if Philly can't get it done, they need to think about serious changes.
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
Agreed. I think he got rid of some of Lou's/Mike's boys out of spite. That generally coincided with the timeline of the team's regression in points. Hopefully management has learned something watching these playoffs and make the necessary adjustments.

First easy peasy change i can see is to stop this "keep possession at all costs" directive to the players. Haven't seen another team skate towards their own net as often as we do.
So it wasn't out of spite when Babcock questioned what Jason Spezza's role would be and made him a healthy scratch on opening night against Ottawa.

How about the first thing Babcock said about Jake Muzzin is that he was a lefty when it came to their defense, instead of saying how he could help them.

Both of them were acquired by Kyle Dubas and maybe Babcock didn't like those moves when they happened.
 

ruaware41

Typical
Oct 22, 2019
1,459
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No, it is vastly overrated. The defense is not much different than it was when they bled goals like crazy two years ago, and is still mediocre right now. They just are getting better goaltending and have a much better coach, so they are maximizing a bunch of 4/5 guys and guys like Pulock. It is like Pittsburgh when they won their Cups without Letang, except the Islanders have a worse offense.

Their defense has been solid, but having the best PDO at 5v5 certainly helps a lot more. If your goalies are making the saves and you can bury your opportunities, you will win games. Obviously having a good defense helps with those things, but if our series was any indication, it is far from a guarantee.

I had high hopes for Philly after the play in, but they are far too inconsistent. If the Islanders are anything, they can be consistent enough to be lucky, and lucky enough to win games. Washington and Philly had it set up on a platter... and if Philly can't get it done, they need to think about serious changes.
pdo is just excuses. Results matter. They are en route to a semi finals birth, which is more than anything this team accomplished. After how much shit we talked after the Leafs poached their star player I think a diet of crow is fitting.
 

Big Muddy

Registered User
Dec 15, 2019
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We don't have anybody that the league would recognize by name. We have some depth and a bunch of 2/3's. Boychuk got injured early and Andy Greene has played every game since. Boychuk has been healthy for about 5 games, but Greene has played so well we kept him in instead. Our bottom pairing is Greene and Leddy believe it or not. I doubt any of the D gets a Norris candidate anytime soon. It kinda reminds me of when we played in 2002 when we had Aucoin and Jonnson.

No, it is vastly overrated. The defense is not much different than it was when they bled goals like crazy two years ago, and is still mediocre right now. They just are getting better goaltending and have a much better coach, so they are maximizing a bunch of 4/5 guys and guys like Pulock. It is like Pittsburgh when they won their Cups without Letang, except the Islanders have a worse offense.

Their defense has been solid, but having the best PDO at 5v5 certainly helps a lot more. If your goalies are making the saves and you can bury your opportunities, you will win games. Obviously having a good defense helps with those things, but if our series was any indication, it is far from a guarantee.

I had high hopes for Philly after the play in, but they are far too inconsistent. If the Islanders are anything, they can be consistent enough to be lucky, and lucky enough to win games. Washington and Philly had it set up on a platter... and if Philly can't get it done, they need to think about serious changes.
I don't mind Pelech & Toews. Not studs or guys with a name, but they can do the job.

No, I don't think its luck, and for some reason it irks some of our fanbase when the Islanders are successful. Not sure why, but its OK to give a little credit.
 
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MattMartin

Killer Instinct™
Feb 10, 2007
17,438
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Long Island
No, it is vastly overrated. The defense is not much different than it was when they bled goals like crazy two years ago, and is still mediocre right now. They just are getting better goaltending and have a much better coach, so they are maximizing a bunch of 4/5 guys and guys like Pulock. It is like Pittsburgh when they won their Cups without Letang, except the Islanders have a worse offense.

Their defense has been solid, but having the best PDO at 5v5 certainly helps a lot more. If your goalies are making the saves and you can bury your opportunities, you will win games. Obviously having a good defense helps with those things, but if our series was any indication, it is far from a guarantee.

I had high hopes for Philly after the play in, but they are far too inconsistent. If the Islanders are anything, they can be consistent enough to be lucky, and lucky enough to win games. Washington and Philly had it set up on a platter... and if Philly can't get it done, they need to think about serious changes.

It is in terms of depth. Leddy and Boychuk were our "1/2". Leddy is now on the 3rd pairing and Boychuk hasn't played in round 2. Pelech, Pulock, and Mayfield have matured and when Toews came in the middle of last season the D was much better. There is no doubt that Trotz has them playing great hockey. It was when we had Weight as our head coach we went for the "run and gun style" of play. I know they are older, but we have Leddy/Greene (two guys who won cups) as our 5/6 as opposed to Seidenberg/Hickey as our 5/6.

Pelech and Pulock are VERY underrated. They might be elite, but they are really solid.
 
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stickty111

Registered User
Jan 23, 2017
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Once again, Trotz and goaltending are saving the Isles along with a lot of luck.
Our roster is still well ahead of theirs. The biggest equalizer is luck.
 
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SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
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pdo is just excuses. Results matter. They are en route to a semi finals birth, which is more than anything this team accomplished. After how much shit we talked after the Leafs poached their star player I think a diet of crow is fitting.

Need to look at what leads to results, or else you never achieve them. Strategy 101...

I don't mind Pelech & Toews. Not studs or guys with a name, but they can do the job.

No, I don't think its luck, and for some reason it irks some of our fanbase when the Islanders are successful. Not sure why, but its OK to give a little credit.

I mean yeah it is not like they have a terrible defense, but it's not much, if any, better than ours. Look at the biggest difference between 2017-2018 (besides Tavares), and it is goaltending. Their goaltending went from league worse to top half of the league. Right now, Varlamov and Greiss are playing better than their norms, and if they do not, then the Islanders probably are not as successful as they are right now.

People have misconceptions about luck. Luck is probability. Nobody has a 100% chance to win, and you can have a 95% chance of winning and still lose. Without getting too technical, the idea is to maximize your chances of winning. If you are good, build your team well, etc., you increase your chances to win, and over a large sample size (i.e. the regular season), you will likely win enough to have success (i.e. make the playoffs). However, in the playoffs, there are no large sample sizes... At least in a series-by-series basis. You can have a hot/cold stretch, you could have your goalie under/over perform, you can struggle to put the puck into the net, etc... That could be the difference, even if you had worse chances of winning.

The Islanders, and I said this before, are consistent right now. They are getting good goaltending and they are converting their opportunities. Kudos to them. In a small sample size, that is enough to win even if they have a lower chance of winning due to their roster construction. However, chances are (once again not guaranteed), their "luck" will likely run out... if/when they will go up against a team like Tampa/Boston that has such a large chance of winning that it would take a lot of things to line up in order for a team like the Islanders to beat them. But all you need to do is look at what Columbus did to Tampa last year and there you go.

Ultimately, the point is that sometimes it is not roster construction or any kind of sustainable factor that is leading to success/failure, but rather an unsustainable factor. Tampa made a few tinkers, but it is not like they shook up their core and gave up on Stamkos, Kucherov and Vasilevsky when they were all brutally awful last year against Columbus. If you mistake those unsustainable factors as something more than it is, then you can end up being like the Senators in 2016-2017 and overestimate the capabilities of your team, or you can underestimate the capabilities of your team and make a rash decision when it would have just been better to stay the course. It's not something fans really think about, because all they care about is results and not how to get them... At least not to the extent that an NHL management team would need to think about it anyways.
 
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stickty111

Registered User
Jan 23, 2017
26,557
32,810
pdo is just excuses. Results matter. They are en route to a semi finals birth, which is more than anything this team accomplished. After how much shit we talked after the Leafs poached their star player I think a diet of crow is fitting.
Yup the Isles are getting a luck which is leading to results. After how bad the Isles handled the JT thing, it's wierd they are facing overrated weak teams to make it easier to win.
 

Superstar

"Be water, my friend."
Jun 25, 2008
12,398
8,450
Corey Perry and the Refs...what a joke...Perry drew his 3rd penalty of the period with another embellishment...I didn't know beating another player to the puck and having him crash into your back is a penalty, lol...

 

ruaware41

Typical
Oct 22, 2019
1,459
1,384
Pacioretty never played with that much intensity against the Leafs lol. Guess we're not the only fans who feel this way about our players. I saw tons of Habs fans in the chat today complaining about how it woulda been nice to see that same effort when he was captaining a team lol
 

LeafsOHLRangers98

Registered User
Jun 13, 2017
6,572
6,718
Once again, Trotz and goaltending are saving the Isles along with a lot of luck.
Our roster is still well ahead of theirs. The biggest equalizer is luck.
Yea that roster is still not going to age well.. like at all. They would have likely missed the playoffs under normal circumstances and they won't be in an easy spot to move some of those contracts without giving up significant assets.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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Richmond Hill, ON
I don't mind Pelech & Toews. Not studs or guys with a name, but they can do the job.

No, I don't think its luck, and for some reason it irks some of our fanbase when the Islanders are successful. Not sure why, but its OK to give a little credit.

Yup all luck. Hard work has nothing to do with it. If Dubas can pull a few rabbits out of his ass he will gave plenty of rabbit feet to hand out this training camp.

You make your own luck. Full credit to Lou, Trotz and their players for getting the Isles where they are.

Oh yeah Shanny deserves some love from Isles fans for letting Lou walk.
 

ruaware41

Typical
Oct 22, 2019
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Yup all luck. Hard work has nothing to do with it. If Dubas can pull a few rabbits out of his ass he will gave plenty of rabbit feet to hand out this training camp.

You make your own luck. Full credit to Lou, Trotz and their players for getting the Isles where they are.

Oh yeah Shanny deserves some love from Isles fans for letting Lou walk.
pretty much. Man this fanbase makes me laugh. Any player not on the Leafs sucks in comparison to the Leafs despite us not getting results. Any team we don't like having success is luck. Why we are not having success? Also luck. You can't make this shit up. When they see Stanley Cup Winners and most successful teams over a period of time, they don't have PDOs attached of the teams that made the semi finals or won cups.
 
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kb

Registered User
Aug 28, 2009
15,200
21,497
Agreed. I think he got rid of some of Lou's/Mike's boys out of spite. That generally coincided with the timeline of the team's regression in points. Hopefully management has learned something watching these playoffs and make the necessary adjustments.

First easy peasy change i can see is to stop this "keep possession at all costs" directive to the players. Haven't seen another team skate towards their own net as often as we do.
No, he didn't get rid of them out of spite. Babcock was actively playing worse players and holding the team back. Management has learned that they probably should have fired Babcock earlier like Dubas wanted.....Babcock ruined players, and played players much more than they deserved for "gud pro" reasons, instead of winning reasons.
 
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Big Muddy

Registered User
Dec 15, 2019
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Need to look at what leads to results, or else you never achieve them. Strategy 101...



I mean yeah it is not like they have a terrible defense, but it's not much, if any, better than ours. Look at the biggest difference between 2017-2018 (besides Tavares), and it is goaltending. Their goaltending went from league worse to top half of the league. Right now, Varlamov and Greiss are playing better than their norms, and if they do not, then the Islanders probably are not as successful as they are right now.

People have misconceptions about luck. Luck is probability. Nobody has a 100% chance to win, and you can have a 95% chance of winning and still lose. Without getting too technical, the idea is to maximize your chances of winning. If you are good, build your team well, etc., you increase your chances to win, and over a large sample size (i.e. the regular season), you will likely win enough to have success (i.e. make the playoffs). However, in the playoffs, there are no large sample sizes... At least in a series-by-series basis. You can have a hot/cold stretch, you could have your goalie under/over perform, you can struggle to put the puck into the net, etc... That could be the difference, even if you had worse chances of winning.

The Islanders, and I said this before, are consistent right now. They are getting good goaltending and they are converting their opportunities. Kudos to them. In a small sample size, that is enough to win even if they have a lower chance of winning due to their roster construction. However, chances are (once again not guaranteed), their "luck" will likely run out... if/when they will go up against a team like Tampa/Boston that has such a large chance of winning that it would take a lot of things to line up in order for a team like the Islanders to beat them. But all you need to do is look at what Columbus did to Tampa last year and there you go.

Ultimately, the point is that sometimes it is not roster construction or any kind of sustainable factor that is leading to success/failure, but rather an unsustainable factor. Tampa made a few tinkers, but it is not like they shook up their core and gave up on Stamkos, Kucherov and Vasilevsky when they were all brutally awful last year against Columbus. If you mistake those unsustainable factors as something more than it is, then you can end up being like the Senators in 2016-2017 and overestimate the capabilities of your team, or you can underestimate the capabilities of your team and make a rash decision when it would have just been better to stay the course. It's not something fans really think about, because all they care about is results and not how to get them... At least not to the extent that an NHL management team would need to think about it anyways.

Your mixing a lot of subjects together there. Can't say I disagree with a chunk of what you've said. Luck is a factor especially in playoffs as you mention.

But, you create your luck to a certain extent. I think that is food for thought when you see a pattern that spans several years of playoffs. Now we are getting to our challenges again. Time to move on to a different subject I'd think.

I happen to know some people who have created a few billion dollars of business because of "strategy". ;) The ability to anticipate the future and position is an "interesting" topic for me as well.
 
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ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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Isles successful by hiring HOF GM and coach. Leafs fire HOF GM and coach and hire rookie GM and coach. And here we are once again. Sigh.
 

Big Muddy

Registered User
Dec 15, 2019
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Yup all luck. Hard work has nothing to do with it. If Dubas can pull a few rabbits out of his ass he will gave plenty of rabbit feet to hand out this training camp.

You make your own luck. Full credit to Lou, Trotz and their players for getting the Isles where they are.

Oh yeah Shanny deserves some love from Isles fans for letting Lou walk.

pretty much. Man this fanbase makes me laugh. Any player not on the Leafs sucks in comparison to the Leafs despite us not getting results. Any team we don't like having success is luck. Why we are not having success? Also luck. You can't make this shit up. When they see Stanley Cup Winners and most successful teams over a period of time, they don't have PDOs attached of the teams that made the semi finals or won cups.

I think its tearing some people up that the Islanders are having success. It seems to be a major irritant for some.

I think I'll just enjoy watching playoff hockey and have the odd chortle. I'll keep it at that.
 

ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
73,080
38,131
I think its tearing some people up that the Islanders are having success. It seems to be a major irritant for some.

I think I'll just enjoy watching playoff hockey and have the odd chortle. I'll keep it at that.
Silly to me. Other teams success or failure has no bearing on the Leafs failures.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
23,341
21,360
Richmond Hill, ON
I think its tearing some people up that the Islanders are having success. It seems to be a major irritant for some.

I think I'll just enjoy watching playoff hockey and have the odd chortle. I'll keep it at that.

Wonder how Shanny is enjoying it. Grovels at the big 3 to take discounts and then allows his GM to overpay all 3 and reward them with huge SBs. #DoYourJobShanny.
 
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