I can't help but think Holland and Abdelkader helped pave the way for a deal like Wilson's to happen.
Also Bickell, Clarkson, etc.
I feel like guys like Lucic, D Brown, etc. have bad deals too but they had shown more to get those deals. And were older when they signed them. UFA vs RFA etc.
I can't really explain this one unless the Caps brass see him as a ~20-25 G + ~20-25 A guy moving forward.
I think it's just a GM jumping the gun a bit. I don't have a problem with RFAs getting a deal like this, but Wilson has had one year where he put up the sort of numbers to go with that physical game to make you think he might be worth it. I still remember LaPointe putting up 20+ goals and 50+ points in his contract year, signing for $5m per with Boston and then never coming close to those numbers again.
Washington is clearly betting on Wilson not regressing, which is their right, but I'm not sure it's a bet I'd have taken. The guy's track record isn't on that screams 40 point player from here on out.
$4 million for a 40 point-ish physical forward is not really an overpayment nowadays. The problem with Abdelkader's contract is and was always the term. Fact is Wilson was a beast in the playoffs. You want him on the roster than not and most of the team is coming back again next season.
We've seen players go on big playoff runs only to not follow it up with consistent production before, though. People want to compare it to Gator, but even Gator had a better track record of production and play at the time he signed his current deal than Wilson has now.
If Wilson goes out and actually puts up 40 points every year and keeps playing his physical game, yeah, it can be worth it. But he's never actually put up 40 points, and his NHL career prior to this last season isn't something that really screams that ability. Maybe if they staple him to the top6 and start spoonfeeding him PP time, his production will come up.