Around the League vol 3: March 2, Firing.

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fahad203

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Oct 3, 2009
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Liljegren yes, but I wouldn’t give up a first unless the D is cheap and great....

If it's cheap and great. They can take the first

How many draft picks do we need?
Sandin will be great for us. As long as we keep him
Heck, I would even bring him up and dump Z to A
 

Nineteen67

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If it's cheap and great. They can take the first

How many draft picks do we need?
Sandin will be great for us. As long as we keep him
Heck, I would even bring him up and dump Z to A

The Leafs need every draft pick they can get unless they are getting a top 2 D or Top 6 power forward with low AAV and term.
 

Kiwi

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On headlines today, Kyper said leafs are looking for a RHD, but the price is really high which makes sense. It would be something like a first round pick, Lilly, and maybe Bracco.
He also said leafs are not parting with Sandin.
Kapanen has also got a lot of interest, but Elliote said, Dubas told other teams, "no sale".

I'm not surprised about Sandin, the kids been outstanding since his draft day and he's Duba's first draft pick as GM

I'm not surprised about Kapanen either, the kids been outstanding

I'd be willing to give up our 1st Liljegren or Bracco but I'm not to keen to potentially giving up both unless the RD is absolutely perfect with plenty of term left on his deal
 
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Nineteen67

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I'm not surprised about Sandin, the kids been outstanding since his draft day and he's Duba's first draft pick as GM

I'm not surprised about Kapanen either, the kids been outstanding

I'd be willing to give up our 1st Liljegren or Bracco but I'm not to keen to potentially giving up both unless the RD is absolutely perfect with plenty of term left on his deal

No one is going to give a top D or F with a decent salary and term for prospects and the last thing the leafs need are more rentals or guys on short term contracts.
 

Kiwi

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No one is going to give a top D or F with a decent salary and term for prospects and the last thing the leafs need are more rentals or guys on short term contracts.

Say what?

If what was said is true there are RD out there but the ask is 1st + Liljegren + Bracco which kind of looks like picks and prospects to me

That's something rebuilding teams tend to like, you know like the Kessel trade who's a top 6 forward last I looked
 

Liminality

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The dinosaur Lou Lam has his Isles in first place in the Metro and about to get another 2 points today. Who'd have thought after they lost JT?
They are the 6th worst shot differential team in the league, I doubt Lehner and Greiss will put up a Vezina caliber performance for them for the entire season.
 

Buds17

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Nov 29, 2015
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The dinosaur Lou Lam has his Isles in first place in the Metro and about to get another 2 points today. Who'd have thought after they lost JT?

They have the fewest points among the four division leaders, but the top half of the Metropolitan is very competitive. I liked the hiring of Trotz but they're certainly a surprise team to me.
 
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DalGoal4Cups

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They are the 6th worst shot differential team in the league, I doubt Lehner and Greiss will put up a Vezina caliber performance for them for the entire season.

Lehner and greiss are making easy saves really, with low shots against.

The islanders are playing a complete game, and their defense is amazing. They remind me of the 1990 / 2000 devils. Roll 4 lines / 6 D evenly, take the lead, and shut em down.

This isn't the lehner / greiss saving the day every game. The islanders young D core has turned it around as well. 3 really good skating D man that can carry the puck end to end are game changers.
 
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Nithoniniel

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Lehner and greiss are making easy saves really, with low shots against.

The islanders are playing a complete game, and their defense is amazing. They remind me of the 1990 / 2000 devils. Roll 4 lines / 6 D evenly, take the lead, and shut em down.

This isn't the lehner / greiss saving the day every game. The islanders young D core has turned it around as well. 3 really good skating D man that can carry the puck end to end are game changers.
Both Lehner and Greiss are outperforming their expected save percentage though, so they are both relative strengths. The team has been very strong defensively as well, which just goes to show what a difference coaching can make. I'm not entirely sure that the offense can keep it up though.
 
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DalGoal4Cups

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Both Lehner and Greiss are outperforming their expected save percentage though, so they are both relative strengths. The team has been very strong defensively as well, which just goes to show what a difference coaching can make. I'm not entirely sure that the offense can keep it up though.

It's easier to make saves when the shots are from low percentage areas and your D man are clearing the path and you're facing under 20 shots.

The isles only allowed 19 shots against the defending Stanly cup champs in DC, coming off a game the previous night. Did greiss make 1 or two really nice saves yea but you don't see any highlight over their head game breaking highlight saves. There's a lot more to save % than just the number.

They also held the ducks to 19 shots in todays 3-0 win. Zero breakaways, zero odd man rushes for the ducks. All mainly outside shots.
 

Nithoniniel

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It's easier to make saves when the shots are from low percentage areas and your D man are clearing the path and you're facing under 20 shots.

The isles only allowed 19 shots against the defending Stanly cup champs in DC, coming off a game the previous night. Did greiss make 1 or two really nice saves yea but you don't see any highlight over their head game breaking highlight saves. There's a lot more to save % than just the number.

They also held the ducks to 19 shots in todays 3-0 win. Zero breakaways, zero odd man rushes for the ducks. All mainly outside shots.
That's the point. Expected save percentage take that into account, and Greiss and Lehner has done better than the average goaltender would. The stat is designed to address exactly what you describe here.
 

DalGoal4Cups

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That's the point. Expected save percentage take that into account, and Greiss and Lehner has done better than the average goaltender would. The stat is designed to address exactly what you describe here.

Expected Save Percentage (xSv%) – The save percentage that a goalie should have with a league average performance given the quality of chances he faced. It is important to note that expected save percentage is NOT a measure of how the goalie has actually performed, it merely serves as a benchmark for the save percentage that an average goalie should have posted, given the quality of chances he faced.

One of the major failures of advanced stats. This is saying the performance the goalie SHOULD have if you averaged all of the NHL teams quality shots against (league average performance).

That's absolutely irrelevant. If, let's say the coyotes gave up a horrible amount of high end scoring chances all season, and play a more open offensively aggressive style and the islanders are consistently giving up only 20 shots per game, playing the trap, with super low quality shots for most of the season, averaging an "expected save %" from the chances against combined with the yotes and the rest of the NHL is totally irrelevant.
 

Nithoniniel

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Expected Save Percentage (xSv%) – The save percentage that a goalie should have with a league average performance given the quality of chances he faced. It is important to note that expected save percentage is NOT a measure of how the goalie has actually performed, it merely serves as a benchmark for the save percentage that an average goalie should have posted, given the quality of chances he faced.

One of the major failures of advanced stats. This is saying the performance the goalie SHOULD have if you averaged all of the NHL teams quality shots against (league average performance).

That's absolutely irrelevant. If, let's say the coyotes gave up a horrible amount of high end scoring chances all season, and play a more open offensively aggressive style and the islanders are consistently giving up only 20 shots per game, playing the trap, with super low quality shots for most of the season, averaging an "expected save %" from the chances against combined with the yotes and the rest of the NHL is totally irrelevant.
No you misunderstand it.

Expected save percentage works like this. For every shot against, they take the league average save percentage on shots like that. That means that over the course of a game, you'll get an idea of what the average goaltender would end up with as a save percentage given the kind of shots they faced. Then you compare what the goaltender actually got to that, and you can see if he did better or worse than the average goaltender would have.

So what happens is that if a goaltender has a .920 save percentage and faces a ton of easy chances, he might actually do worse compared to what the average goaltender would have done. See Devan Dubnyk for an example of that. But a goaltender with a .915 might look great because he's actually hung out to dry, and the average goaltender is expected to have a .905 save percentage if faced by those shots.
 
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DalGoal4Cups

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No you misunderstand it.

Expected save percentage works like this. For every shot against, they take the league average save percentage on shots like that. That means that over the course of a game, you'll get an idea of what the average goaltender would end up with as a save percentage given the kind of shots they faced. Then you compare what the goaltender actually got to that, and you can see if he did better or worse than the average goaltender would have.

So what happens is that if a goaltender has a .920 save percentage and faces a ton of easy chances, he might actually do worse compared to what the average goaltender would have done. See Devan Dubnyk for an example of that. But a goaltender with a .915 might look great because he's actually hung out to dry, and the average goaltender is expected to have a .905 save percentage if faced by those shots.


I understand what you're saying but it's a false assumption. "If faced by those shots" isn't a thing. That's not a real thing, that's not tangible at all.

Each individual shot is different with many different variables. There has never once been two identical shots with the same trajectory, velocity, angle, height of goalie, view of goalie....etc etc..
 

Menzinger

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We see the same old song and dance every year. A team rides a unsustainable hot streak and fans and outsiders who barely pay attention think they’re legit.

The Leafs did a similar thing back in 2012/2013 and then immediately fell back down to earth the following season
 

MYIslanders

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This isn’t an unsustainable streak. This is the players buying into the system. And yes, the goalies are not having to make nearly as many saves as a result of that system. And when the top 6 forwards stop producing offense (as they have the past 2 weeks), the bottom 6 produce it, as a result of the system. Both Toronto and NYI are very good teams. Toronto has an extremely high octane offense, and since losing Tavares, the islanders have become a more complete team. Can’t we be happy for one another and sort it out in the playoffs?
 

notDatsyuk

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They are the 6th worst shot differential team in the league, I doubt Lehner and Greiss will put up a Vezina caliber performance for them for the entire season.
And shot differential is much more important than goal differential or wins.
Did you know that last year only three of the top nine teams had a positive shot differential?

Only eight teams have given up fewer shots than the Islanders, and no team has given up fewer goals.

It's entirely possible they won't hold on to second overall in the East, but maybe solid defensive play from everyone on the team isn't a terrible thing.
 
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Nineteen67

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Celebrating one of the greatest men in history today with afternoon hockey.
 

Nithoniniel

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I understand what you're saying but it's a false assumption. "If faced by those shots" isn't a thing. That's not a real thing, that's not tangible at all.

Each individual shot is different with many different variables. There has never once been two identical shots with the same trajectory, velocity, angle, height of goalie, view of goalie....etc etc..
They don't need to be the exact same either way. Just by looking at a few extra variables that have immense effect on the goaltenders ability to save them, we can get much better data.
 
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