Around the League: Hockey Is In the Air...

[Menzinger]

The way the league is heading guys are flaming out by 30 years of age, so personally I'm fine with star players getting paid on their 2nd contract.

ELC, plus bridge deal, plus long term RFA contract equals less movement of star players then we already have (which is very small already).
With the avg age in the league dropping in the NHL, if teams decided to really limit that 2nd contract to 2 or 3 yrs in length, teams would have control over all their best players for their entire career.

Yeah, the entire RFA concept is incredibly unfair to players - ie with the restrictions it places on them during most of their peak years. It was only a matter of time until players, especially star ones started to push back

 

[Superstar]

In this scenario McDavid/Matthews could be getting $15m plus on their 3rd contract.

So pick your poison I guess.

Star players are already paid astronomically for their 3rd contracts when they become UFAs. By the time a player reaches 27/28 years old, they realistically only have 4 to 5 peak production years left...they are not worth the (say) $15 million plus AAV for the last 2 to 3 years of their contracts.

Let's use Tavares' contract as an example. He signed 7 years for $77 million. He'll be about 33 years old heading into the last 2 years of his contract, and production wise he might only be worth about $6 million per year for those 2 years, so he's technically getting paid like $13 million per year for the first 5 years (and $6 million and $6 million for the last 2). (That's how those old cap circumvention contracts were structured with the much longer duration period and much fewer dollars near the end). Rumour has it that San Jose was offering him $13 million AAV over 7 years! He took less to play for the Leafs. If we wanted to sign Tavares for only 5 years - not that he would be willing - we would probably need to pay him $14 to $15 million per year in AAV.

RFA contracts give teams some control without unnecessarily inflating the teams' cap situation prematurely, while allowing the teams to be more competitive, but teams like Edmonton are killing themselves by paying McDavid and Draisaitl so much for their 2nd RFA contracts.

 

[Barilko14]

I am with Daisy on this. As I just don't see the point if you are just going to hand out 8yrs and over 7-8mil or more for a player in their RFA years. The team is paying the players for their potential instead of what the player is capable of. Part of the reason for the RFA is to let the teams to have control over their players. BUt whats the point if you have to out bid other teams for their service. To me the whole offer sheet thing should just be gone completely, since not a lot of GM is willing to do that, but thats a discussion for another day.
To your point about paying McDavid/Matthews 15mil plus on their third contract. Do you think when McDavid, when it is time to sign his third contract, will go to the Oilers and say, I will sign for 12.5mil again, since I already have 100mil or sign just below market value? What I am trying to say is, if the market value is 15mil a year, you will end up offering them 15mil regardless of how much their 2nd contract was signed for.

Mark Scheifele is why teams are handing out long term big money 2nd contracts.

If a player exceeds expectations, the team us laughing.

 

[Barilko14]

Star players are already paid astronomically for their 3rd contracts when they become UFAs. By the time a player reaches 27/28 years old, they realistically only have 4 to 5 peak production years left...they are not worth the (say) $15 million plus AAV for the last 2 to 3 years of their contracts.

Let's use Tavares' contract as an example. He signed 7 years for $77 million. He'll be about 33 years old heading into the last 2 years of his contract, and production wise he might only be worth about $6 million per year for those 2 years, so he's technically getting paid like $13 million per year for the first 5 years (and $6 million and $6 million for the last 2). (That's how those old cap circumvention contracts were structured with the much longer duration period and much fewer dollars near the end). Rumour has it that San Jose was offering him $13 million AAV over 7 years! He took less to play for the Leafs. If we wanted to sign Tavares for only 5 years - not that he would be willing - we would probably need to pay him $14 to $15 million per year in AAV.

RFA contracts give teams some control without unnecessarily inflating the teams' cap situation prematurely, while allowing the teams to be more competitive, but teams like Edmonton are killing themselves by paying McDavid and Draisaitl so much for their 2nd RFA contracts.

So you are arguing players shouldn't get paid too much on the 2nd contracts, but also shouldn't get paid too much on their 3rd contracts because they'll decline at 32/33.

So when should they earn their $$????

A 5 yr contract in their prime?

 

[Superstar]

So you are arguing players shouldn't get paid too much on the 2nd contracts, but also shouldn't get paid too much on their 3rd contracts because they'll decline at 32/33.

So when should they earn their $$????

A 5 yr contract in their prime?

That's nonsensical. Not what I said at all.

RFA contracts should be reasonable, and players should be paid reasonably and these salaries shouldn't be over-inflated (that's why there are comparable contracts and differences in RFA and UFA statuses) because these years allow teams some salary control in a cap system. At 20 and 21 years old, these aren't men, they still have much to grow, and if they prove they are better than what's been achieved, they stand to make more money in the next contract.

They get their huge, astronomical salaries in their UFA deals because realistically, they are paid the most for the first several years of the deal because as they decline in the latter years, they are not worth their cap hit on the team. (Plus, as a UFA the demand from multiple teams will naturally drive up their salaries, giving them some advantage.) I illustrated that point in my example regarding Tavares contract. I did say he wouldn't be willing to sign a 5 year contract. And yes, IF he was signing a 5 year contract, his AAV would be much more than $11 million, and why not? $15 million x 5 years is close to $11 million x 7 years and he gets to retire 2 years earlier IF he wants to (or he signs another shorter term one)...only that teams wouldn't do it because it would be cap suicide in the current cap system.

If RFAs are reasonably paid while UFAs are overpaid, that's a good compromise for both players and teams.

 

[Gabriel426]

Mark Scheifele is why teams are handing out long term big money 2nd contracts.

If a player exceeds expectations, the team us laughing.

First of all, Scheifele signed a 6.15 or so contract and not 9-10mil/ 8 yrs contract. It is a lot harder to exceed 9-10mil a yr than 6.15mil/yr.

Secondly, what do you think Scheifele next contract will be? Probably around where JT is if not more. So what does giving players an 8 yr deal with huge money right off their ELC help with the team Cap? By bridging them like 4-6 yrs, the team get to lower their overall caphit and get to sign and resign better players to build a stronger team. Then when time to renew the core to big contract, you pay the core accordingly for 8 yrs.

Take McDavid for example.
18-20, he is on his ELC
21-28, 12.5mil/yr
29-36, most likely be 18mil/yr, since it is 8 years from now. Nomatter what, he is not going to take anything less than 12.5mil unless he is injury prone and assuming the cap keeps going up every year.

Let's not argue is McDavid worth the contract, but says Oilers bridge McDavid by offering 10mil for 5 yrs. Thus, the AAV on his second contract is 2.5mil less. Then Oilers get to resign him 3 yrs earlier than above scenario, which is safe to assume if will cost less than resigning him three years later.

To me, it is a no brainier to try not to give players an 8 yrs deal right off their ELC.

 

[Menzinger]

Though we should likely take into account that it does seem as if the league in terms of salary structure is changing, star players are starting to take up the majority of the teams cap %, while support players are starting to make less and less.

 

[Barilko14]

That's nonsensical. Not what I said at all.

RFA contracts should be reasonable, and players should be paid reasonably and these salaries shouldn't be over-inflated (that's why there are comparable contracts and differences in RFA and UFA statuses) because these years allow teams some salary control in a cap system. At 20 and 21 years old, these aren't men, they still have much to grow, and if they prove they are better than what's been achieved, they stand to make more money in the next contract.

They get their huge, astronomical salaries in their UFA deals because realistically, they are paid the most for the first several years of the deal because as they decline in the latter years, they are not worth their cap hit on the team. (Plus, as a UFA the demand from multiple teams will naturally drive up their salaries, giving them some advantage.) I illustrated that point in my example regarding Tavares contract. I did say he wouldn't be willing to sign a 5 year contract. And yes, IF he was signing a 5 year contract, his AAV would be much more than $11 million, and why not? $15 million x 5 years is close to $11 million x 7 years and he gets to retire 2 years earlier IF he wants to (or he signs another shorter term one)...only that teams wouldn't do it because it would be cap suicide in the current cap system.

If RFAs are reasonably paid while UFAs are overpaid, that's a good compromise for both players and teams.

Seems like teams are starting to prefer to pay players when they are in their prime (23 - 27) as opposed to over paying them for what they have accomplished (see Lucic, Ladd, Okposo, and dozens of other examples).

It makes sense to me that teams are shifting things way.

 

[Walshy7]

Tyler Biggs has signed with the....... Nottingham Panthers of the British hockey leauge!

My god what a bust, traded up to get this clown

 

[Barilko14]

First of all, Scheifele signed a 6.15 or so contract and not 9-10mil/ 8 yrs contract. It is a lot harder to exceed 9-10mil a yr than 6.15mil/yr.

It is still a long term 2nd contract, which at the time still had some risk associated with it. His first 2 seasons did not scream future superstar.

Secondly, what do you think Scheifele next contract will be? Probably around where JT is if not more. So what does giving players an 8 yr deal with huge money right off their ELC help with the team Cap? By bridging them like 4-6 yrs, the team get to lower their overall caphit and get to sign and resign better players to build a stronger team. Then when time to renew the core to big contract, you pay the core accordingly for 8 yrs. It helps the teams cap by having their superstar on a sweetheart deal for 8 years. One that's a pretty big window. Two that gives them team plenty of time to prepare for his 3rd contract. Pretty sure any team would love to be in that situation.

Take McDavid for example.
18-20, he is on his ELC
21-28, 12.5mil/yr
29-36, most likely be 18mil/yr, since it is 8 years from now. Nomatter what, he is not going to take anything less than 12.5mil unless he is injury prone and assuming the cap keeps going up every year.

Let's not argue is McDavid worth the contract, but says Oilers bridge McDavid by offering 10mil for 5 yrs. Thus, the AAV on his second contract is 2.5mil less. Then Oilers get to resign him 3 yrs earlier than above scenario, which is safe to assume if will cost less than resigning him three years later. Not sure why you keep mentioning 5 years as the bridge contracts, teams would be pretty foolish to allow their 25/26 yo superstars to hit ufa. In your example McDavid walks away from Edmonton in 5 years.

To me, it is a no brainier to try not to give players an 8 yrs deal right off their ELC.

I've got an example for you.

Which scenario would give the Leafs a better chance at long term success?

Scenario A - Big 3 sign 3 yr bridge deals for a combined $18m, followed by 8 yr deals for a combined $35m.

Scenario B - Big 3 signs for combined $26m for 8 years.

 

[IBeL34f]

Seems like teams are starting to prefer to pay players when they are in their prime (23 - 27) as opposed to over paying them for what they have accomplished (see Lucic, Ladd, Okposo, and dozens of other examples).

It makes sense to me that teams are shifting things way.

I do believe this is how things will start to move as well, but we'll have to see how long it takes to fully implement itself. The game is getting younger and younger - Give guys big money while they're in their prime, and then taper them off as they get older and concerns about longevity start to creep in.

 

[SweLeafsFan]

Tyler Biggs has signed with the....... Nottingham Panthers of the British hockey leauge!

My god what a bust, traded up to get this clown

Out of curiosity could he be the Leafs' biggest 1st round bust?

 

[Walshy7]

Out of curiosity could he be the Leafs' biggest 1st round bust?

The fact he has gone to the uk to play hockey it must one of if not the biggest bust. Most others get into the Finnish or Swedish leagues or failing that the German league. The British league is way below that

 

[GBLeaf]

Tyler Biggs has signed with the....... Nottingham Panthers of the British hockey leauge!

My god what a bust, traded up to get this clown

Woo! This is my local team.

Looking forward to seeing him this season and what impact he has.

The league has been getting better in recent years, be interesting to see what kind of role he gets.

 

[Barilko14]

Out of curiosity could he be the Leafs' biggest 1st round bust?

There would be bigger ones from back in the day, but he's probably the biggest bust from our modern era, considering he never rose above AHL 4th liner status.

 

[Walshy7]

Woo! This is my local team.

Looking forward to seeing him this season and what impact he has.

The league has been getting better in recent years, be interesting to see what kind of role he gets.

I like Nottingham, I loved the ‘ye old trip to Jerusalem’ pub that was so awesome, I love history and beer almost the perfect place for me.

We will see what Biggs can do there, wouldn’t surprise me if he was useless even there

 

[deletethis]

Out of curiosity could he be the Leafs' biggest 1st round bust?

Nepotism pick Jeff Ware wasn't remotely close to NHL level ever (even though he played a few games as a teenager). Luka Cereda wasn't even AHL level but he had a bum ticker.

Given modern scouting metrics and no life threatening health issues, Biggs is probably the Leafs' biggest 1st round bust.

 

[Menzinger]

Tyler Biggs has signed with the....... Nottingham Panthers of the British hockey leauge!

My god what a bust, traded up to get this clown

Ha! Funny enough I sort of loosely follow British hockey the teams are fun but yeah this a pretty huge step down

 

[JadedLeaf]

Guess who's over on the Islanders board gushing over Komorov? lol

 

[deletethis]

Guess who's over on the Islanders board gushing over Komorov? lol

username: WhoCares

 

[Superstar]

Guess who's over on the Islanders board gushing over Komorov? lol

Brad Marchand?

 

[LeafFever]

Guess who's over on the Islanders board gushing over Komorov? lol

We need to get that poor boy some help.

 

[crump]

Tyler Biggs has signed with the....... Nottingham Panthers of the British hockey leauge!

My god what a bust, traded up to get this clown

Apparently we could use his truculence now.

 

[Walshy7]

Apparently we could use his truculence now.

I think the Newfoundland growlers would prefer a player with more skill and not just truculence

 

[Superstar]

Seems like teams are starting to prefer to pay players when they are in their prime (23 - 27) as opposed to over paying them for what they have accomplished (see Lucic, Ladd, Okposo, and dozens of other examples).

It makes sense to me that teams are shifting things way.

That's easier said than done in a cap system.

UFAs are players too and need to get paid also. They have a longer proven track record than their RFA counterparts to justify the premium in their salaries. UFAs are part of the collective PA, so it's not as if they could simply be pushed aside in favour of RFAs. An argument can be made that the max term for a UFA should not be longer than 5 years (so as to avoid having to pay for the less productive years after they turn 32 to 33), but that will simply push up their AAV, which will have an adverse effect on the cap. You can theoretically force players out of the league in their early to mid 30's by overpaying RFAs because there's only so much money to go around in a cap system (that already happens organically as older players in their mid to late 30's retire, and those who play beyond 40 are just rare breeds), though why will anyone do that in a unionized labour workplace?

The problem with paying RFAs huge sums of money is most of them have only been in the league playing consistently for 2 to 3 years, so their sample size for their production is relatively small compared to UFAs - you're betting mostly on potential rather than consistent, tangible output through a longer period of time. This is risky in two folds: first, if they justify their perceived over payment, then they can be overpaid significantly when they reach UFA status; secondly, if they don't live up to the value of their contracts, you've tied up your cap with bad contracts for significant time, which weakens any team's position to support the roster (and that includes being able to sign over-priced UFAs).

UFA salaries won't come down (especially at 27 to 28 years old) even if RFAs are paid alot more, and that's a major problem in a cap system. If anything, this will destabilize teams even further...maybe that makes it more exciting for the league and for player movement, but it will definitely be more stressful for everyone...we already witness these dynamics in play where teams scramble to trade away young assets that they can't afford to pay, trade potential UFAs for younger and controllable assets, or simply let them walk.

The key to stable, reasonable RFA salaries is in the negotiations between the owners/management and the players and their agents. It doesn't take much for an imprudent owner/GM to destabilize their own salary cap structure by overpaying RFAs at their own peril.