I don't know if I'd go that far as to say he'll be waived at some point this season, but I wouldn't rule it out either.
However, it's a VERY safe bet that his NHL career is already between 66%-75% of the way through in total games played. He's more similar to Chad Johnson types than anything and Johnson is 33 and out of the league now. He's more than likely 2-3 years away from not having a permanent NHL roster spot.
One reason I don't think he'll be waived this year is because Price will probably play 65 games or more this year, so you won't really see Kinkaid all that much if Price is healthy. And if Price is injured, Kinkaid will probably still be up, because I'm not sure that Montreal has 2 goalies better than Kinkaid in their organization, when not including Price. So he'll probably be a very lightly used backup to Price if he's healthy and he'd probably still have a roster spot if Price isn't healthy, even if he's still the backup if that happens.