Around the League 2019 offseason II

[NJDevs26]

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[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

 

[Brodeur]

Marleau's agent did a superb job. Even if he ends up signing a minimum deal with San Jose, he'll get a slight pay increase from the 4.25 mil he would have been due to this season.

Also for a moment, I thought that Pavel Zacha's highlight reel goal was the last one that Roberto Luongo gave up. But I had forgotten that game got to OT and Zajac got the eventual Hughes clincher.

 

[OmNomNom]

hold on.... so carolina basically got a 2020 or 2021 1st rd pick in exchange for paying marleau a $3mil signing bonus, AND have to pay him over the next 2 years?

why

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

hold on.... so carolina basically got a 2020 or 2021 1st rd pick in exchange for paying marleau a $3mil signing bonus, AND have to pay him over the next 2 years?

why

because the Leafs are in cap hell and were desperate to clear room

 

[OmNomNom]

because the Leafs are in cap hell and were desperate to clear room

yeah but what's the benefit for carolina? just a pick in the 20s? for that cost?

i'm sayin waddell got ripped off

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

yeah but what's the benefit for carolina? just a pick in the 20s? for that cost?

i'm sayin waddell got ripped off

you wouldn't take a free first round pick for $3 million dollars and a minimal cap charge for 2 years? Especially when we aren't going to be a cap team?

 

[Billdo]

yeah but what's the benefit for carolina? just a pick in the 20s? for that cost?

i'm sayin waddell got ripped off

The benefit is a first round pick for $3,000,000 and spread out money for two years... if they hit on that pick they won't have to pay him for 5 years.

 

[OmNomNom]

you wouldn't take a free first round pick for $3 million dollars and a minimal cap charge for 2 years? Especially when we aren't going to be a cap team?

The benefit is a first round pick for $3,000,000 and spread out money for two years... if they hit on that pick they won't have to pay him for 5 years.

i think i'm just suddenly looking at it like the average salaried person i am - Dundon is willing to pay that $3mil just for that pick, and it's crazy to me that someone can be that rich to do that on a draft pick i guess ahaha

 

[MadDevil]

I think that guy went into the wrong profession...

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Wow. Very cheap for what I figured he would get. I would've guessed 3 years, 3 million AAV.

 

[NJDevs26]

i think i'm just suddenly looking at it like the average salaried person i am - Dundon is willing to pay that $3mil just for that pick, and it's crazy to me that someone can be that rich to do that on a draft pick i guess ahaha

People here were preemptively calling the owners cheap if they didn't pay $4-5 million just to go up several spots in the first round. Of course it's easy with someone else's money but still $3 million is more than a fair price for a first-round pick outright.

It's also ideally one less free agent you have to pay for or player you have to trade for down the road since you generally count on first-rounders to at least cheaply fill a lineup spot for several years.

 

[BenedictGomez]

i think i'm just suddenly looking at it like the average salaried person i am - Dundon is willing to pay that $3mil just for that pick, and it's crazy to me that someone can be that rich to do that on a draft pick i guess ahaha

I'll be in the minority here that doesn't think you're crazy to question that logic.

If the pick doesn't hit, it's like taking $3,833,000 and putting it into a toilet & hitting flush.

It we assume Toronto will yield something from #23 to #31 (which I think likely), the odds of drafting a useful NHL player (defined as playing > 200 games) in that area is roughly 44% to 38%*.

So we already know there's less than a 50/50 chance Carolina's gamble pays off. If we want to visualize this, it's significantly mathematically worse than putting ~$4M on a roulette table and betting on red or black. Meh, at that price I'd rather buy 4 of American Pharoah's colts were I inclined to gamble a ton on sports!



*The Data

 

[NJDevs26]

It's not just a matter of whether the pick hits or not, it (or the Canes' own first-rounder) could also theoretically be used in a trade because they have an extra.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Hey! Carl! GOOD TO SEE YOU!

 

[JrFischer54]

3 million for a pick in the 20's (probably) is a lot of money. its no sure thing early in the draft let alone in the back of the draft.

 

[MartyOwns]

3 million for a pick in the 20's (probably) is a lot of money. its no sure thing early in the draft let alone in the back of the draft.

you were the one telling me yesterday that luongo’s decision that will cost the canucks $3m+ for 3 years was no problem for them, right? but you think this will be a problem for carolina?

great deal for the canes

 

[OmNomNom]

you were the one telling me yesterday that luongo’s decision that will cost the canucks $3m+ for 3 years was no problem for them, right? but you think this will be a problem for carolina?

great deal for the canes

luongo's retirement wasn't their decision though, and strictly from a cap situation it's fine

voluntarily taking on $3mil debt for a pick in (most likely) the 20s is kinda nuts though, from an objective standpoint. idk, i feel like we never see trades like that.

 

[MartyOwns]

luongo's retirement wasn't their decision though, and strictly from a cap situation it's fine

voluntarily taking on $3mil debt for a pick in (most likely) the 20s is kinda nuts though, from an objective standpoint. idk, i feel like we never see trades like that.

it’s not fine lol. that’s the cost of a decent roster player for 3 years. it sucks for vancouver. carolina’s deal isn’t nuts, they have over $20M in cap space and now TWELVE picks in 2020, including 6 in the first 3 rounds

 

[GeNeXt]

What? You guys are seriously questioning the Marleau deal as bad for Carolina? Shero has made a few deals like that; see Savard and other cap dumps for less. It is absolutely worth it.

Dundon is loaded. Who cares about three million dollars from an owner's perspective, unless the team is on the brink of bankruptcy or the owner is Melnyk, Eugene. A first is a first. Very valuable piece that could help the Canes load up next playoffs, or just another piece for their prospect system. Eating a contract for a first round pick is well worth it considering the reward if the Leafs were to suck, and just the pure value of possessing an asset like that.

 

[Nubmer6]

What? You guys are seriously questioning the Marleau deal as bad for Carolina? Shero has made a few deals like that; see Savard and other cap dumps for less. It is absolutely worth it.

Dundon is loaded. Who cares about three million dollars from an owner's perspective, unless the team is on the brink of bankruptcy or the owner is Melnyk, Eugene. A first is a first. Very valuable piece that could help the Canes load up next playoffs, or just another piece for their prospect system. Eating a contract for a first round pick is well worth it considering the reward if the Leafs were to suck, and just the pure value of possessing an asset like that.

Savard didn't cost real money since he was on IR. It was purely cap space.

 

[Nubmer6]

I'll be in the minority here that doesn't think you're crazy to question that logic.

If the pick doesn't hit, it's like taking $3,833,000 and putting it into a toilet & hitting flush.

It we assume Toronto will yield something from #23 to #31 (which I think likely), the odds of drafting a useful NHL player (defined as playing > 200 games) in that area is roughly 44% to 38%*.

So we already know there's less than a 50/50 chance Carolina's gamble pays off. If we want to visualize this, it's significantly mathematically worse than putting ~$4M on a roulette table and betting on red or black. Meh, at that price I'd rather buy 4 of American Pharoah's colts were I inclined to gamble a ton on sports!



*The Data

It's a lot easier to do if you're below the cap floor and need to spend that money anyway. It's definitely a gamble money-wise for Carolina.

 

[OmNomNom]

It's a lot easier to do if you're below the cap floor and need to spend that money anyway. It's definitely a gamble money-wise for Carolina.

the $3mil isn't a cap hit though - it's a signing bonus iirc

 

[Nubmer6]

the $3mil isn't a cap hit though - it's a signing bonus iirc

Ah, ok. In that case, it's not really a gamble for the Canes.