Well - as to the East only - in the Washington vs. Tampa analysis, maybe the Caps - by getting Kovy - cheaply offset everything the Bolts did. I really like what Kovy brings them. He looked hungry and effective - with a lot of the old juice left - in Montreal.
As to form, since the all star break the Caps have been cold (and not looking too hungry either) while Tampa has been the hottest team in the league since before the New Year. Clubs that have been the hottest in the regular season after January 1st have won several recent cups (St. Louis last year and one of the 2 straight Pittsburgh runs). So Tampa has an advantage there based on who is hot and who is not. Unless the Caps suddenly find some fire in their bellies again. And a hungry-to-finally-win Kovy may help spark them there.
But a Washington-Tampa series still breaks down as a heavy club (Washington) against a lighter more finesse one. Usually that favors the heavy team in the playoffs, if they are skilled enough - which the Caps are.
(Then there’s Pitt and Boston not to be counted out either. Especially Pitt. And Boston if Rask in goal can carry them - just saying this as a caveat).
Still, getting Kovy was a great move by the Capitals. It will be hard to bet against a club with both Kovy and Ovechkin.