Confirmed Signing with Link: [ARI] Nick Schmaltz Extension (7 years, 5.85M AAV)

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Arizona has no income tax so it's more like 6plus million a year contract lol.

Might want to check that again

 

[Space umpire]

The negative about Schmaltz in Chicago is he was soft and doesn't really make the effort in his own zone. Very limited time in Zona and he put up some numbers and yet still managed to be a -8. That comes out to about a -38 for a season. ... Notice the Coyote's record was no better with him than without. They made the playoff push after he got injured.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Arizona has no income tax so it's more like 6plus million a year contract lol.

He plays for the Arizona coyotes, not the Montana Coyotes

 

[Price is Wright]

You got a young guy you traded a former third overall pick for. He looked good for you before he got hurt. He wants to stay in Arizona for the next seven years. Very few players make that sort of commitment to Phoenix. It's under $6M.

I make that deal.

 

[Golden Puppers]

The one thing he was always good at was entering the zone, he graded out as one of the best entrymen in the league in his tenure in Chicago.

Arizona needs a center who can consistently carry the puck over the blue line.

 

[aufheben]

The negative about Schmaltz in Chicago is he was soft and doesn't really make the effort in his own zone. Very limited time in Zona and he put up some numbers and yet still managed to be a -8. That comes out to about a -38 for a season. ... Notice the Coyote's record was no better with him than without. They made the playoff push after he got injured.

Patrick Kane has 105 pts and is +1

 

[Byron Bitz]

Fair price, contracts are rising with the rising cap.

 

[Torontoborn]

Great deal for a future #1C.

At that price, you can have two Schmaltz for the price of 1 Auston Matthews! Pretty good.

I am shocked it took this long for a non Leaf thread to become a trashing of a Leaf player. Sounds like someone is jealous that the Leafs have Matthews and your team doesn't.

 

[Michoulicious]

I am shocked it took this long for a non Leaf thread to become a trashing of a Leaf player. Sounds like someone is jealous that the Leafs have Matthews and your team doesn't.

I could have chosen as a currency Price (1,79 Schmaltz for 1 Price) or Kucherov (1,62 Schmaltz for 1 Kucherov), but it was more elegant to use Matthews as a comparable (1,99 Schmaltz for 1 Matthews), also since they are both centers.

Numbers are cruel. Blame them, not me!

 

[rt]

The one thing he was always good at was entering the zone, he graded out as one of the best entrymen in the league in his tenure in Chicago.

Arizona needs a center who can consistently carry the puck over the blue line.

Such a good post.

Hoping that if the Yotes don't make the playoffs, they take advantage of their 2% chance at Jack Hughes for the same reason. Hughes is great at gaining the zone with possession. Something the Coyotes have been terrible at for nearly 20 years.

 

[Ducksforcup]

You got a young guy you traded a former third overall pick for. He looked good for you before he got hurt. He wants to stay in Arizona for the next seven years. Very few players make that sort of commitment to Phoenix. It's under $6M.

I make that deal.

I agree... it's not an egregious overpayment and you are getting a quality young player for the next seven years. I do this deal every time as Arizona.

 

[Torontoborn]

I could have chosen as a currency Price (1,79 Schmaltz for 1 Price) or Kucherov (1,62 Schmaltz for 1 Kucherov), but it was more elegant to use Matthews as a comparable (1,99 Schmaltz for 1 Matthews), also since they are both centers.

Numbers are cruel. Blame them, not me!

Yeah numbers are cruel maybe you should check em out! Haters will be haters.

 

[Kaibur]

Such a good post.

Hoping that if the Yotes don't make the playoffs, they take advantage of their 2% chance at Jack Hughes for the same reason. Hughes is great at gaining the zone with possession. Something the Coyotes have been terrible at for nearly 20 years.

rt don't do this to yourself. It's Coyotes luck.

 

[rt]

The one thing he was always good at was entering the zone, he graded out as one of the best entrymen in the league in his tenure in Chicago.

Arizona needs a center who can consistently carry the puck over the blue line.

As an aside, do you know of a good resource for zone entry data by team and/or player over time?

 

[Canis Latrans]

As an aside, do you know of a good resource for zone entry data by team and/or player over time?

This is the best I've found. Schmaltz does appear have decent entry stats. I didn't parse through it too thoroughly, but the only Schmaltz data is from Chicago, while Strome has an entry for both teams, leading me to believe the sample size of Coyotes' games tracked is small, so take it as you will.

Edit: Looks like there are under 10 games of Coyote data in here, so assumption is that they just happened to be playing a team that has some one recording stats.

 

[Plub]

You got a young guy you traded a former third overall pick for. He looked good for you before he got hurt. He wants to stay in Arizona for the next seven years. Very few players make that sort of commitment to Phoenix. It's under $6M.

I make that deal.

Actually, most players that come here make that commitment. I'm not sure where there narrative came from.

If anything players tend to stay here and retire here.

 

[Golden Puppers]

As an aside, do you know of a good resource for zone entry data by team and/or player over time?

Not great but here are some. The data is either tracked manually or not really made 100% public but puck tracking should change that soon.

You'll see Schmaltz on the first link in amongst the top players and if you put his name in the chart on the 3rd link you'll see he grades very well.

Tableau Public

Statistics - The Point

Tableau Public

 

[Philadelphia Ducks]

Arizona has no income tax so it's more like 6plus million a year contract lol.

Math checks out.

 

[Space umpire]

Such a good post.

Hoping that if the Yotes don't make the playoffs, they take advantage of their 2% chance at Jack Hughes for the same reason. Hughes is great at gaining the zone with possession. Something the Coyotes have been terrible at for nearly 20 years.

2 years later what team would you trade him to so he can start producing?

 

[rt]

2 years later what team would you trade him to so he can start producing?

The Coyotes traded Strome 3.5 years after drafting him. It was five years for Domi.

So the question really is, which team would we trade him to four years later so he can start producing. The answer is probably Detroit. That seems right to me. He'll be our 4LW for four years, and then the 1C for the Detroit Renaissance for the rest of his career.

 

[RABBIT]

2 years later what team would you trade him to so he can start producing?

The Coyotes traded Strome 3.5 years after drafting him. It was five years for Domi.

So the question really is, which team would we trade him to four years later so he can start producing. The answer is probably Detroit. That seems right to me. He'll be our 4LW for four years, and then the 1C for the Detroit Renaissance for the rest of his career.

You guys think if we fire Chayka he'll go to another team and win a cup? Cuz I'm f***in starting to.

 

[seafoam]

I think this is a fair deal for both sides.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I actually like the way Chayka is configuring some of these deals. The longer term makes the dollar value lower overall, and it would appear that these deals are taking the idea that the player will likely become worth their salary fairly easily.

In a worst-case/best-case scenario, let's say that the players are the following:

- Dvorak: tops out at 0.5 ppg, which is a number that he has pretty much hit in his current time (0.44 ppg). At the end of his deal, he will be above $5M per year, and at 0.5 ppg as a worst-case scenario, that contract can be moved fairly easily with retention if it is a burdensome deal. If the best case is a 50-60 point #2C, then his final years are right in that range that is needed.

- Chychrun: I'd like to see him play an entire season first, but right now, he is trending toward being a 0.3-0.4 ppg player, so let's say his trend for worst-case is under 0.3 ppg and his best case is 0.4 - 0.5 ppg. There are many defensemen out there in the 0.3 - 0.4 ppg range making above the AAV of $4.6M, so it is just a matter of him staying healthy and progressing. If the turns into an above average 3/4 D, then this contract is fine.

- Schmaltz: he is currently in the range of being a 0.6 - 0.8 ppg player. If his worst-case scenario is 0.5 ppg, not a great deal. Not outright horrific either, but probably wanting more. If he is in the 0.6 - 0.8 ppg range, with upside to a PPG player, then this is a great deal.

I think that Chayka is hinging on the younger players with upside to take some longer term in their deals to help keep the team in a decent track to both reach the cap floor if salary and spending is tight, but also have contracts that don't burden us if other players need significantly higher AAV down the line, should Arizona be able to spend closer to the max. Let's say that Schmaltz signed a bridge deal for $6-7 M total for 2 years and goes on to produce two more 50+ point seasons. I think that a 7 year deal in that scenario would be more likely to have a $6 - 7 M salary to start in the 21-22 season, which may even be an underpayment, based on cap going up and the normal increase to contracts that is seen. Having three decent players whom Arizona wants to keep around is a better sell than what has happened in the past, where deals are rarely longer than 2 years. If you are a FA or coming off a bridge deal and looking for a little more term, it is far better to know that in 3-4 years, players like Dvorak, Chychrun, and Schmaltz will remain there, as opposed to not knowing what our thoughts are on their bridge deals and only knowing that certain talent may only have minimal years in Arizona guaranteed.

Every single one of these signings will probably wind up being average for the players should they continue at their current development pace. However, if there is further lack of development, Arizona hasn't quite scorched their payroll with a contract like Clarkson or Bolland signed about 4 or 5 years ago. If even one player develops above and beyond his current pace, and the other players stay at their pace, then the overall depth of these deals is great and Arizona gets the player at a "discounted" rate. Seems like very strong risk/reward, where the risks are more leaning on injury. Also of note was that maybe Schmaltz may not be in terrible shape - one of the individuals that the Coyotes are in tune with medically helped Chychrun return faster from a knee injury, and Jason Demers (suffered a torn ACL on 16NOV18) was able to come back in early March - there was talk that he was done for the season on the 16th, but the medical team mentioned a great opportunity to be back this season the day after he was initially diagnosed. Makes me think that there might be something regarding rehab of certain injuries that Chayka may be tapping into to get players back sooner with limited repercussions on their bodies.

 

[BUX7PHX]

The negative about Schmaltz in Chicago is he was soft and doesn't really make the effort in his own zone. Very limited time in Zona and he put up some numbers and yet still managed to be a -8. That comes out to about a -38 for a season. ... Notice the Coyote's record was no better with him than without. They made the playoff push after he got injured.

Keeping in mind that the TEAM record was that way because Arizona had 4 injuries that took out about 40 man games of 4 players in the 17 game stretch. Raanta went out for the year on 27NOV (Schmaltz's first game). Galchenyuk was out for 3 games starting on 08DEC. Hinostroza was out for about 9 or 10 games from 06DEC to 29DEC. Grabner went out on 01DEC and didn't return at any point in time while Schmaltz is healthy.

So, a #1 goalie, a #1 C, a lethal PKer, and a 3rd line wing out for a total of 40 games. Is it worth mentioning that these were the following teams that were played:

MIN/NAS/STL/LA/WSH/SJ/BOS/BUF/NYR/CAR/NYI/MTL/COL/SJ/LA/ANA/LVK

So, the only non-playoff teams faced (as of today's standings) are: LA x2, ANA, MIN, BUF, NYR, and MTL. For Montreal, they are still in the thick of the race, so we'll call them a playoff team. At the time, MIN was good and STL was bad, so call that a wash. 10 of 17 games on the road and 11 of 17 games against playoff teams, counting Montreal in that mix. I would take going 8-9 in a stretch against really good teams and without some key contributors a reasonable line. Much easier to push for the playoffs when the January and February schedule features Edmonton and Vancouver a total of 6 times in 25 games between JAN and FEB.

 

[Space umpire]

Keeping in mind that the TEAM record was that way because Arizona had 4 injuries that took out about 40 man games of 4 players in the 17 game stretch. Raanta went out for the year on 27NOV (Schmaltz's first game). Galchenyuk was out for 3 games starting on 08DEC. Hinostroza was out for about 9 or 10 games from 06DEC to 29DEC. Grabner went out on 01DEC and didn't return at any point in time while Schmaltz is healthy.

So, a #1 goalie, a #1 C, a lethal PKer, and a 3rd line wing out for a total of 40 games. Is it worth mentioning that these were the following teams that were played:

MIN/NAS/STL/LA/WSH/SJ/BOS/BUF/NYR/CAR/NYI/MTL/COL/SJ/LA/ANA/LVK

So, the only non-playoff teams faced (as of today's standings) are: LA x2, ANA, MIN, BUF, NYR, and MTL. For Montreal, they are still in the thick of the race, so we'll call them a playoff team. At the time, MIN was good and STL was bad, so call that a wash. 10 of 17 games on the road and 11 of 17 games against playoff teams, counting Montreal in that mix. I would take going 8-9 in a stretch against really good teams and without some key contributors a reasonable line. Much easier to push for the playoffs when the January and February schedule features Edmonton and Vancouver a total of 6 times in 25 games between JAN and FEB.

The Yotes have weathered a slew of injuries with many guys still out long after Schmaltz got injured and the teams play improved. ... My point stands.