TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Nothing like raw point totals over a 23 game sample to judge an 8-year contract that hasn’t even kicked in yet!
Confirmed Signing with Link: [ARI] Clayton Keller re-signs with Coyotes (8 Years, $7.15M AAV)
- Thread starter Kamiccolo
- Start date
Nothing like raw point totals over a 23 game sample to judge an 8-year contract that hasn’t even kicked in yet!
Lebowski
El Duderino
- Dec 5, 2010
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Not to mention, Kessel is on the exact same pace despite having back-to-back PPG+ seasons in Pittsburgh the years before. You can't really look at his raw numbers, even less so considering the tiny sample size.
Judging by the eye test, 7M is right in Keller's ballpark.
Isaac Nootin
Registered User
- Sep 28, 2017
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Sure, let's factor in the 47 points and terrible underlying numbers from the 82 games played last year as well.
Anything else you'd like to contribute?
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Oh, so you’re into the underlying metrics now? How do you feel about his much improved underlying metrics this season?
Sergei Shirokov
Registered User
Oh really?? Chayka wasn't even a GM when Nylander was drafted.
In 2016, Chayka's first draft, he was ready to take Jacob Chychrun at #7 until Keller fell back into the spot. Then worked the deal with the Red Wings to get Chychrun at #16.
.... and thus an "HF legend" was born......
Pretty sure they were ready to move up to #4 to get Keller actually, had PLD not gone 3rd.
I mean take a look at his 5 on 5 zone deployment. From natural stat:Oh, so you’re into the underlying metrics now? How do you feel about his much improved underlying metrics this season?
Offensive zone start%: 83.65%
Offensive zone faceoff%: 72.88%
Something tells me hardly ever starting in the defensive zone may have had a very large impact on shot against stats.
Another moronic example of a team paying a player like a star before he shows he is 0ne.
Jormungandr
Registered User
I don’t think the criticism is unwarranted. He’s been very, very underwhelming. I’m disappointed.
Gaylord Q Tinkledink
Registered User
- Apr 29, 2018
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You come around here using logic and common sense and you'll get drilled in the head by an apple again.
Frolov 6'3
Unregistered User
Two seasons ago, he was on the scoresheet every game at the beginning. It was ridiculous. That tailed off a bit in the second half of the season.
He was already less impressive last season and now it continues.
He was already less impressive last season and now it continues.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Isaac Nootin
Registered User
- Sep 28, 2017
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Unfortunately most posters aren't objective and only pick and choose stats to support their argument.
Even suggesting Keller's underlying metrics are "improved" is essentially moot, considering how God awful they were last year.
AZ wasn’t a god awful team last year. They had a 22 point improvement and were in the playoff picture until the last week of the season.
Isaac Nootin
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- Sep 28, 2017
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TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Oh the irony.
You are the one picking and choosing to ignore that RAPM does account for zone starts. And you’re also picking and choosing to ignore that not only are his underlying metrics merely improved, but his shot suppression impacts are actually among the very best in the NHL.
- Apr 27, 2005
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You're the one that brought up underlying numbers lol.
Meanwhile Arizona is 2nd in their division and Keller has been playing fine, he's boasting a 5.5% 5v5 oish%, so he's due for some upward regression.
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Isaac Nootin
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Usually not well for extreme cases. You can look at players on the same team with extreme opposite cases of zone usage then look at the adjustments made (so a lot of the variables like home vs away, score state etc are a constant between players). The adjustments are often lacking for the shot differential based stats like corsi.
When a player receives serious anomalies in terms of zone usage a closer look at unadjusted stats is important while also considering that usage
This is very true. Most people pick stats to fit their narrative, only human nature really but ya it can be frustrating
- Apr 27, 2005
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He led the team in scoring last year, how is that being taken as a negative?
- Apr 27, 2005
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Zone starts have a relatively trivial impact on raw possession statistics, considering most shifts start on the fly. Surely you know this?
Isaac Nootin
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TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
The effect of zone starts on player performance is extremely overrated. Furthermore, Keller posted very poor underlying metrics last season despite 74.51% offensive zone starts, so it’s not as if a bump up to 83.65% is going to move mountains for him. Just looking at every piece of evidence that we have, it seems very clear that Keller’s improvement by the underlying metrics is his own doing. And as mentioned above, his on-ice shooting percentage is very low, and is due for a rebound.
What is your evidence to suggest that RAPM does not do well at accounting for zone starts in extreme cases?
