Are we entering a new, high scoring era?

[The Panther]

To answer the OP's question, "Yes, I think so."

I think League-average sort of scoring levels are "about right". By average, I mean levels that correlate to a historical sort of average, going back to 1924 or whenever. So, the early 1950s was too low scoring, the early 1980s too high scoring, and the early 2000s (and five or six years ago) too low scoring again. When the higher-scoring era was transitioning to the Dead-puck era, it hit a medium level of scoring that seemed 'about right' to me, which was maybe the 1996-97 season in isolate. Before that, it was too high and after that it was too low.

(Checks the stats. It seems 1997 was actually marginally lower-scoring than 2018, but 2019 so far is on pace for a higher scoring year than 1997 so, yeah, last season + this season is about the same level scoring as 1996-97.)

So it's a good sign that average scoring levels are up again. But what's really fun for me is that certain teams and the most elite players can really fill the net. I mean, it's one thing if average levels are slightly up, but that's not necessarily exciting if every team's leading scorer just goes from 84 points to 88 points. But what is exciting is that Kucherov, McDavid, Rantanen and whoever might each end up with 125 points this season! That gets fun. What's also exciting is that Calgary and Tampa (others?) are on pace for over 300 goals, which hasn't happened since the Capitals in 2010 and rarely since 2006 (and prior to that, rarely since about 1998).

 

[Henkka]

pretty crazy how much Pittsburgh changed the game after their 16 cup. League went from slow, possession, low scoring defensive style to a super high paced score score score type of game. There is a lot more north and south transition rather than lateral plays these days. Its pretty great.

It wasn't Pittsburgh, imo. It was the NA All Star kid team in World Cup.

That was dynamite to watch. Those young players set the league future, because those were the future of the league. Every team will be built around them.

Then Vegas was built on that same ideology fast skaters straight from the expansion draft, without any extra old weight on the organization, and you saw the results.

 

[Henkka]

Going into games today the NHL was at a 3.05 goals per team per game average.

In the 8 games completed so far tonight they have a 2.625 rate, I wonder if things are going to tighten up again.

I certainly hope not.

I have watched some numbers during the season:

After 4-7 games: 6.18 goals per game
After 8-12 games: 6.12 per game
After 13-17 games: 6.15 per game
After 18-22 games: 6.07 per game
After 23-27 games: 6.05 per game
After 28-33 games: 6.09
After 34-38 games 6.16
After 39-43 games 6.11
After 44-48 games: 6.06

So it has been evolving all the time. Every season teams will start high-scoring and first 10 games are usually most high-scoring at whole season. Players are full of energy, everybody is healthy. When best players are getting injuries, they slow down and scoring goes down.

Also, best teams will ease off before the playoffs, if they have extra gap on the standings. Interesting to see how much that will affect on averages at this season.

But that 6.0648 goals per game average is still a lot higher than last season value 5.861 goals per game. It's 3.48% raise.

I've also separated HD scoring, medium-dangers and low-dangers, and the biggest change what I found is that teams overall are shooting less from low-danger spots and more from Medium-area. The increase in goals has come from Medium-dangers. Even shots and goals from HD area are a bit down. These are compared to 2017-18 season data.

So it could be the goalie equipment, referee things, and shooting more from better area (avoiding weak shots on low-danger area) why the scoring is up.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

I like to think we’re entering a higher scoring era- I tend to think more skill benefits offense more than defense is all. Instead of shooting into a dude’s pads I see more and more players changing angles, making fakes, etc, and what can the D do? There’s only so many ways you can defend. I guess it’s because the D and goalie respond to the offense- so more skill means more offensive options, and the D just have to learn to cover that many more possibilities. Meanwhile the D themselves are getting more and more involved in offense.. I think the league could be headed towards a glorious new standard, honestly. Now if only the refs would call effin interference..

 

[tinyzombies]

Scoring is WAY up in the NHL. Offense is higher than it has been in 20 years. The MacKinnon-Rantonen-Landeskog line is the best line in 20 years, for instance.

Upon closer look, the three previous seasons to the obstruction rule change saw 11 goalies with a .930+ 5-on-5 SP; that's down to 4 goalies including last season through January 15, 2019. Also, the league-wide PP% is up from 17.88 two years ago to near 20% each of the last two seasons. The percentage of shots from the slot on the PP has gone up 18% over the past 5 years. East-west passes have gone up 15%. Passes to the slot have gone up 20%. (Analyzing the increase in NHL goal scoring: What is sustainable? - Sportsnet.ca)

Sportsnet attributes it to a league-wide increase in skill, and perhaps a delayed reaction to the new obstruction calls (How slashing penalties and PPs have impacted the early NHL season - Sportsnet.ca).

Now, look at the Caps last year. They played the entire year with a system geared only to produce the best quality chances (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...ng-better-shots-not-more-shots/?noredirect=on). If they had a medium danger chance, they wouldn't shoot, and their zone entries during the regular season were geared towards higher quality chances and to pass up the medium danger chance. And last year Holtby faced the 10th most high danger shots. That doesn't seem to compute.

In the playoffs, they turned that on its ear by playing a 1-3-1 trap combined with a cycle down low. But I can't help but think the tactics they picked up playing the prior system during the regular season filtered into the cycle game, so they had the best of both worlds - a trap to shut down the neutral zone, and quality chances off of what you would think were reduced quality zone entries on the attack (off of the trap), but instead they may have had different sets of tactics to work with bad zone entries that were learned from the selective system they played during the regular season. Also, the Caps had the second best PP in the playoffs last year at 29.3%, and a big body skill game down low to draw penalties. A perfect hidden game plan to exploit the obstruction rule change?


PS: Something else interesting, if you sort goalies from 2011-2014 (Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick) you'll see the leaders in high danger save percentages either came from teams that dominated the slot, or teams that had no slot defense, nothing in between. A high volume of shots seems to favor the goalie's high danger save percentage, but so does a low volume of shots. An average numbers of high danger shots seems to lower a goalie's average, which seems to indicate that it's systematic (to close down the slot or to open it - to rush attempts in Boston? - and counter). At the top as no surprise were Rask, Greiss, Chad Johnson (BOS), Bishop. But also up there were goalies from teams that had no slot D or who maybe deliberately played that way to counter: Mike Smith (PHO), Lundqvist, Crawford. That seems to hold true for these past two seasons: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[cliffclaven]

We’re entering a “higher scoring era” because aside from a stick check or pinning someone to the boards, you can’t play defense anymore. I can’t count the number of goals this year where someone skates in between the dots and scores. Usually surrounded by 2 or 3 opposing players that are waving sticks around. If one of them would’ve actually taken the body, it wouldn’t have been a goal. Unfortunately, it would’ve probably been 5+game for the hitter and a suspension because your jersey caught the other guys beard in slow motion.

 

[Machinehead]

There's no denying it anymore, this is the second straight year scoring is absolutely jacked. This is legit now.

The only question now is: why?

What happened?

 

[kris]

Goalie gear got smaller

 

[Anglesmith]

I think it's more than just gear. Seems like odd-man rushes are more frequent this year, too. I think there's been a coaching shift towards generating quality scoring chances, as opposed to simply minimizing the chances against and keeping the puck.

 

[MMC]

New slashing rules

 

[Bounces R Way]

The amount of talent in this league has never been higher. The average NHL player is better than they were 10 years ago.

 

[Machinehead]

The amount of talent in this league has never been higher. The average NHL player is better than they were 10 years ago.

And then there's the Rangers

 

[Backhandbeauty]

The amount of talent in this league has never been higher. The average NHL player is better than they were 10 years ago.

Weird because I was told this is the reason scoring was down the previous ten years.

It's because of the hooking and slashing to the hands being called along with the goalie equipment changes.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Weird because I was told this is the reason scoring was down the previous ten years.

It's because of the hooking and slashing to the hands being called along with the goalie equipment changes.

Powerplay opportunities aren't even high. They are converted on at higher rates in some recent years though, and that seems tied to a drop in SV%, and the drop in SV% seems perhaps tied to the new goalie equipment regulations.

 

[Backhandbeauty]

Powerplay opportunities aren't even high. They are converted on at higher rates in some recent years though, and that seems tied to a drop in SV%, and the drop in SV% seems perhaps tied to the new goalie equipment regulations.

I don't mean there's more calls. I mean it cut down on skill players being hampered by players that can't compete one on one. They have more time and space. More time and space plus bet to shoot at equals instant offense for skilled players. That's why you are seeing an increase in scoring for skilled forwards but not a hufe increase in gpg across the league. The players aren't better the environment is.

 

[cliffclaven]

The amount of talent in this league has never been higher. The average NHL player is better than they were 10 years ago.

Literally has nothing to do with it. You have very few actual defensemen anymore, because no one hits anyone anymore. “Defense” consists of stick checks and board play. Hawks are a prime example. In 2010, they had 5 legit first pair d men... Keith, seabs, jammer, oduya, and leddy. And they actually played the body. That core won a cup with antti niemi in net. Think about that. Now, they have Keith... and a bunch of “defensemen” that come from the new nhl. Garbage. Scoring isn’t up because all the sudden the league has a ton of players that are “elite”.. scoring is up because all top forwards can skate to the net with their head down unimpeded, because the rules protect them from getting a hangnail.

 

[JerseyMike34]

Naturally,

Can’t compare this year to really any previous years because the game is different and the scoring differentials have a wide spread.

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What also helps is “babying” of the game. Not many hits, fights, scrums. Instead of the 3rd being a line full of checkers and the 4th being the energy line, they’re more or less skill lines that just spread offense.
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Really boring in my opinion, but if the fans want goal... this is the way to do it.

Fans don't want goals (although they are nice). Fans want chances, the league is confusing this pretty badly.

 

[oilersfan87]

With 11 players hitting 100+ points last season and possibly even more this season, and the league average for goals being well over 3 per game over the past 3 seasons, it looks like I was correct.

I must say I've been enjoying this higher scoring NHL era and I hope the days of players like Jamie Benn winning the scoring title with 87 points never return.

 

[orange drop]

I would be ok with 70 being the new 50 goal benchmark

 

[TheStatican]

It's still embarrassing that the NHL took so ridiculously long to figure this out. Over 2 decades worth of boring-ass low scoring season, aside from the 1 or 2 year post lockout blip, is completely inexcusable.

 

[wmupreds]

I would agree with this.

After the first period of the Minny Bruins game it turned in to a public skate. Could of played 40 minutes without pads on.

I’ll wager coaches eventually put an end to the hug-a-thon going on and start asking their players nicely to start engaging physically out there. That will muck things up some and lower the scores.

I would say, teams have figured out over an 82 game season it makes more sense to play a lighter game as it only marginally hurts your record and keeps guys healthier for the stretch run and playoffs. I think you see less talented teams come out of the gate heavier and stay more competitive for a while until the league as a whole turns it up after roughly the all star break.

Don't ask me how I know this as a Preds fan

 

[LuGBuG]

If you play Anaheim yes.

 

[Mrb1p]

It's still embarrassing that the NHL took so ridiculously long to figure this out. Over 2 decades worth of boring-ass low scoring season, aside from the 1 or 2 year post lockout blip, is completely inexcusable.

2005-2015 /the Benn years was the best and most balanced hockey. Now there's no flow, rivalry and goaltenders are all terrible.

 

[KareemTrustfund]

Gotta wonder how Kucherovs career looks without that goalie gear shrinkage. Pretty convient he doesn’t put up a superstar season until that happens. Is Kucherov a sham? I think so. More at 11.

 

[Oneiro]

It would be nice to see great goaltending again but otherwise, the game's in a good place.

Yeah, big hits are less frequent but everything else is way more fun. The goon / old school aspect was holding the league back. Once you have serious owners in place - ones who want to grow revenue and grow the game - the league will hit a new apex. Punish cheap shots severely, keep the stars in the game, tighten up the reffing - none of this is very hard, it's just that you don't have a commissioner or ownership group in place that is willing to clean it up.

Stars, scoring and speed are good, and if anything, just make the high IQ gems, like Bergeron and Lidstrom, more obvious.