Are todays players washed up earlier?

authentic

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Jan 28, 2015
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Of the 7 players that are 30+, 3 of them are elite top-100 of all-time players. If we treat them as "the exception to the rule", and just make a top 12 list, 66% of that list is under-30.

I'd be curious to see lists for every year, and then from those lists, by decade and by "era".

To throw my hat into the ring... I do sorta feel like players have been getting better at younger ages, and players are also washing-up earlier. Primes feel a little sooner to me now. But again, that's just a sense or a feeling... I'd like to see the actual numbers.

Like always then? I don't believe there was ever a time where most of the elite players were over 30, except maybe...right now lol.

1983-84

Gretzky - 22/23
Coffey - 22
Goulet - 23
Stastny - 27
Pederson - 22
Kurri - 23
Trottier - 27
Federko - 27
Middleton - 29/30
Hawerchuk - 20
Messier - 22/23
Anderson - 23
Bourque - 22/23
Nicholls - 22

Honestly, I went over every season since 1980 a while back and I can tell you if anything we see more older players in the top 10-20 scorers in the recent era.
 
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authentic

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Would it be cheating to use Gretzky as an example? What about Lemieux? Sakic? Modano? Hull? Lidstrom? Jagr? Selanne? Brett Hull? who at 39 years old scored 37 goals in the dead puck era and finished 8th overall. There are plenty of examples.

List anyone you think who's heading towards that age group or is 30 right now that will be 10 top in scoring when they are damn near 40. The decline is not as giant of a mountain as i suspected when i looked at the numbers, but there is a difference big enough to see that we will not have the same calibre of late 30's early 40 year old players.

We're not there yet though so how would you know? You just listed players who's birth years spanned over a 12 year period. So from the early 2000s until Jagr recently we have had a few players who were elite/near elite when they were around 40 every few years or so, but for some reason now we're not going to see it again? Why couldn't Ovechkin, Crosby or Malkin do it? Even Getzlaf is still looking pretty good if he could manage to stay healthy I could see him up there. Keep in mind though that Jagr actually never finished in the top 15 in points after the age of 35, and besides Selanne, Lidstrom and Hull, the others you listed were no older than 37 when they had their last truly great season.
 
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Tweed

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Jun 25, 2006
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Like always then? I don't believe there was ever a time where most of the elite players were over 30, except maybe...right now lol.

1983-84

Gretzky - 22/23
Coffey - 22
Goulet - 23
Stastny - 27
Pederson - 22
Kurri - 23
Trottier - 27
Federko - 27
Middleton - 29/30
Hawerchuk - 20
Messier - 22/23
Anderson - 23
Bourque - 22/23
Nicholls - 22

Honestly, I went over every season since 1980 a while back and I can tell you if anything we see more older players in the top 10-20 scorers in the recent era.

Well, when I say "Elite" I mean Gretzky, Lemieux, Jagr, Lindros, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, McDavid. So those are players I wouldn't bet against still being in the top 15 scorers, regardless of age.

But your findings are interesting, for sure. I'd still love to see the lists for each year to see how the rest of the non-Elite top 15's aged out, but obviously I don't expect you to do all that work. I'll take your word for it, as I'm familiar with your posting history, and your knowledge of the game.
 
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authentic

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Well, when I say "Elite" I mean Gretzky, Lemieux, Jagr, Lindros, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, McDavid. So those are players I wouldn't bet against still being in the top 15 scorers, regardless of age.

But your findings are interesting, for sure. I'd still love to see the lists for each year to see how the rest of the non-Elite top 15's aged out, but obviously I don't expect you to do all that work. I'll take your word for it, as I'm familiar with your posting history, and your knowledge of the game.

The two examples I used are a bit on the extreme side in either direction, but yes there are generally more older top scorers in recent times. I didn't look before the 1980s, it would be interesting to check that out actually. I think if anything we have an increasing amount of young players who are NHL ready in recent years, and slightly less older role players or bottom pairing defensemen sticking around (mainly due to the emphasis on speed and skill over toughness), that may be where the "it's a young mans game now" narrative is coming from.
 
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Tweed

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The two examples I used are a bit on the extreme side in either direction, but yes there are generally more older top scorers in recent times. I didn't look before the 1980s, it would be interesting to check that out actually. I think if anything we have an increasing amount of young players who are NHL ready in recent years, and slightly less older role players or bottom pairing defensemen sticking around (mainly due to the emphasis on speed and skill over toughness), that may be where the "it's a young mans game now" narrative is coming from.


That makes sense. Really, I guess we shouldn't be looking at scoring lists for age, but instead just looking at league-wide average age instead... by year. That'd get us to the real lowdown, in a hurry.
 
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Samsquanch

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Nov 28, 2008
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Without a doubt yes.

I think that players still generally "peak" offensively at around the same time as they always did. But the time that they spend in their "primes" are on average much shorter than they used to be.

And it's quite obvious why this has all happened, and it comes down to speed and the supreme conditioning of today's athletes.
 

authentic

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Jan 28, 2015
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Without a doubt yes.

I think that players still generally "peak" offensively at around the same time as they always did. But the time that they spend in their "primes" are on average much shorter than they used to be.

And it's quite obvious why this has all happened, and it comes down to speed and the supreme conditioning of today's athletes.

Any evidence of this? There seems to be more elite older scorers in this era than in earlier ones.
 

Samsquanch

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Any evidence of this? There seems to be more elite older scorers in this era than in earlier ones.

I mean without diving deep into it, the average age on NHL teams has gone down quite a bit versus 30 years ago.

That's a smoking gun if I ever saw one..
 

Samsquanch

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Could you send me a link to this info?

It's something I've heard during the 1000s of hours of sports radio I've listened to.

I'm not trying to prove it tbh. You can choose to believe whatever youd like, but clearly it's more of a young man's game now (as said by pretty much every hockey analyst and coach in the last 10+ years).
 

authentic

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It's something I've heard during the 1000s of hours of sports radio I've listened to.

I'm not trying to prove it tbh. You can choose to believe whatever youd like, but clearly it's more of a young man's game now (as said by pretty much every hockey analyst and coach in the last 10+ years).

Nevermind, found it.
 
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Samsquanch

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I know they've been saying, I just have yet to find the evidence of it.

If you really care that much, this would be super easy to verify, just time consuming.

Just open up excel, and go to hockey db and get to work.

It would be interesting to see for sure, but not nearly interesting enough for me to waste my own time doing it :laugh:
 
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8816 others

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I miss the days where old vets would hold a roster spot based on reputation alone, wondering if they can have a great sendoff season. Get to see your childhood heroes still playing, not putting up numbers but being wise leaders. I guess its a bit of charm the NHL and all sports have lacked as sports has become more of a business and science.
 

authentic

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Jan 28, 2015
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If you really care that much, this would be super easy to verify, just time consuming.

Just open up excel, and go to hockey db and get to work.

It would be interesting to see for sure, but not nearly interesting enough for me to waste my own time doing it :laugh:

Yeah, I think what I found above is good enough.
 

authentic

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Jan 28, 2015
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I miss the days where old vets would hold a roster spot based on reputation alone, wondering if they can have a great sendoff season. Get to see your childhood heroes still playing, not putting up numbers but being wise leaders. I guess its a bit of charm the NHL and all sports have lacked as sports has become more of a business and science.

It's amazing then that Jagr at 44/45 was not just surviving off of reputation, but instead basically thriving, lol.
 

Taluss

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Jul 28, 2018
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We're seeing steep declines with players only in 28, 29 and 30 years of age these days. Is the prime of a player lower then ever and do players get washed up earlier?

I think it’s cuz the game is changing from how they are used to it. Much quicker and younger players starting to dominate. When you play the same style so long not easy to make a quick change.
 

authentic

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Jan 28, 2015
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I think it’s cuz the game is changing from how they are used to it. Much quicker and younger players starting to dominate. When you play the same style so long not easy to make a quick change.

Last years top 15 scoring leaders and their current ages.

McDavid - 21
Giroux - 30
Kucherov - 25
Malkin - 32
MacKinnon - 23
Hall - 26
Kopitar - 31
Kessel - 30
Wheeler - 32
Crosby - 31
Ovechkin - 33
Stamkos - 28
Marchand - 30
Barzal - 21
Voracek - 29

The change appears to come mostly from filling out roster spots rather than the ones that are dominating, or else what are all those 30 year olds doing there? Why only 4 guys under 25 in the top 15?
 

JerseyMike34

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Dec 29, 2017
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No. With the salary cap, you now NEED to have a core of younger players, a lot aren't better then the 34 year olds without a contract. But some vets don't want to play bottom 6 minutes. Others don't want to take the salary cut from 2.4 M or whatever to 750k.

That's all.
 

Samsquanch

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No. With the salary cap, you now NEED to have a core of younger players, a lot aren't better then the 34 year olds without a contract. But some vets don't want to play bottom 6 minutes. Others don't want to take the salary cut from 2.4 M or whatever to 750k.

That's all.

Dude your so wrong.

Most of those 34 year olds without contracts would play for the league minimum with ZERO hesitation. An NHL gig is an NHL gig man, nothing else compares.

Most are forced to go to Europe because they cant keep up anymore with the 24 year olds.

Im friends with a 32 yr old (former) NHLer who is literally in this exact situation right now.
 

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