Are todays players washed up earlier?

[GlitchMarner]

Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook are two examples. Chicago has been hit a bit harder than most teams, I think it is games played on the body and playoff games are worth 2-3 regular season games as far as being harder on the body & mentally.

Good theory. Look at what happened to Trottier (who was mentioned earlier) toward the end of his career with the Islanders. The guy played a lot of grueling hockey during his prime.

 

[BagHead]

The reverse is actually happening when it comes to forwards.

Older players are getting smaller? That's probably why my grandpa is so short!

 

[authentic]

Good theory. Look at what happened to Trottier (who was mentioned earlier) toward the end of his career with the Islanders. The guy played a lot of grueling hockey during his prime.

Probably especially true of the more physical players. Though Messier was something else.

 

[Stringer Bell]

How old were

Wayne Gretzky
Jaromir Jagr
Mark Messier
Ron Francis
Steve Yzerman
Mario Lemieux
Joe Sakic
Ray Bourque
Mark Recchi
Teemu Selanne
Adam Oates
Luc Robitaille
Brett Hull
Doug Gilmour
Mats Sundin
Dave Andreychuk
Mike Modano
Al MacInnis
Brian Leetch
Joe Nieuwendyk
Gary Roberts
Etc

When they retired? And what kind of point production were they putting up into their late 30's?

It's interesting. Because even the stars of the 2000's and 2010's, ones who seemed to be the equivalent of today seem like they could fall off a cliff not too long after turning 30.

LeCavalier
Corey Perry
Jason Spezza
Bobby Ryan
Rick Nash
Marian Gaborik
Dany Heatley
Thomas Vanek
Zach Parise
Jonathan Toews
Paul Statsny

We'll see with guys like Kane, Getzlaf, Giroux, Benn. But other guys played at an elite level heading into 40.

 

[Semantics]

Nope in the 90s you heard that a players prime was in 26, 27. But today we are seeing more rapid declines imo.

Delayed reward cycle, especially back when media was slower (no internet). Applies to media/fan attention as well as coaches/GMs. Player is an up and comer, player peaks at 23-24, but it takes a couple more years of people heaping praise on them before they attain the status of older stars who came before them, player is now 26-27 but their reputation is just peaking, player turns 30 and is only just starting to be considered a long time star, they ride that well into their 30s.

Basically, the perception of players is delayed, but not as much now as it used to be because people are more up to date because of the internet, and also because the salary cap means older players who have huge contracts are less appealing.

Still happens to an extent, people don't want to recognize players for how good they are until they've gone out and "proven" it. But if you wait until after a player has a career year before recognizing how good then by definition you are not appreciating them fully during their peak.

 

[GlitchMarner]

LeCavalier
Corey Perry
Jason Spezza
Bobby Ryan
Rick Nash
Marian Gaborik
Dany Heatley
Thomas Vanek
Zach Parise
Jonathan Toews
Paul Statsny

We'll see with guys like Kane, Getzlaf, Giroux, Benn. But other guys played at an elite level heading into 40.

Not sure what happened with that 1998-2003 group of stars/notable players.

Lecavalier, Heatley, Brad and Mike Richards didn't age well. Parise really hasn't, either. Perry has been in a decline. Nash declined significantly after 2015 and his career may be done. Kesler isn't the same. Zetterberg fell off considerably later on in his career. Staal looked like he was finished as a star player and then hit the 40 goal mark last season.

I'm not sure the same pattern can be expected from post-2003 draft players who are notable.

 

[supsens]

How old were

Wayne Gretzky
Jaromir Jagr
Mark Messier
Ron Francis
Steve Yzerman
Mario Lemieux
Joe Sakic
Ray Bourque
Mark Recchi
Teemu Selanne
Adam Oates
Luc Robitaille
Brett Hull
Doug Gilmour
Mats Sundin
Dave Andreychuk
Mike Modano
Al MacInnis
Brian Leetch
Joe Nieuwendyk
Gary Roberts
Etc

When they retired? And what kind of point production were they putting up into their late 30's?

It's interesting. Because even the stars of the 2000's and 2010's, ones who seemed to be the equivalent of today seem like they could fall off a cliff not too long after turning 30.

LeCavalier
Corey Perry
Jason Spezza
Bobby Ryan
Rick Nash
Marian Gaborik
Dany Heatley
Thomas Vanek
Zach Parise
Jonathan Toews
Paul Statsny

We'll see with guys like Kane, Getzlaf, Giroux, Benn. But other guys played at an elite level heading into 40.

Guys that have had serious knee injuries,guys that like to party a lot,guys that got huge contracs that mailed it in. Guys that had a small window being "stars"
There is almost no difference from today. Then a couple years or 20.
Verry few players are high end after 35 like almost none, as the other sports have shown most players who play great at older ages used the juice

 

[GlitchMarner]

Probably especially true of the more physical players. Though Messier was something else.

You have to wonder if Ovechkin's "all out" style he played during his peak seasons may have actually shortened his peak somewhat.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Combination of speed being more important than ever and teams more commonly embracing youth movements

Also the demands on the players body. Year round training and the game is faster and more intense.


Up till about 2000 most players took it easy in the off season. Not any more

 

[lomiller1]

How old were

Wayne Gretzky
Jaromir Jagr
Mark Messier
Ron Francis
Steve Yzerman
Mario Lemieux
Joe Sakic
Ray Bourque
Mark Recchi
Teemu Selanne
Adam Oates
Luc Robitaille
Brett Hull
Doug Gilmour
Mats Sundin
Dave Andreychuk
Mike Modano
Al MacInnis
Brian Leetch
Joe Nieuwendyk
Gary Roberts
Etc

When they retired?

not really relevant

And what kind of point production were they putting up into their late 30's?

Most were well below what they put up at 25

 

[glovesave_35]

We're seeing steep declines with players only in 28, 29 and 30 years of age these days. Is the prime of a player lower then ever and do players get washed up earlier?

Can you present some data to show that your observation is true before we all try and pull reasons from the recesses of our brains to explain it?

 

[authentic]

Not sure what happened with that 1998-2003 group of stars/notable players.

Lecavalier, Heatley, Brad and Mike Richards didn't age well. Parise really hasn't, either. Perry has been in a decline. Nash declined significantly after 2015 and his career may be done. Kesler isn't the same. Zetterberg fell off considerably later on in his career. Staal looked like he was finished as a star player and then hit the 40 goal mark last season.

I'm not sure the same pattern can be expected from post-2003 draft players who are notable.

Though there's still Getzlaf, Bergeron, St. Louis and Thornton.

 

[authentic]

Can you present some data to show that your observation is true before we all try and pull reasons from the recesses of our brains to explain it?

I'm still seeing posts explaining why this is so without anything to show that it actually is so. Considering that more than half of the top forwards and nearly every one of the top defensemen are around 30 I don't think this is true though.

 

[Brunomics]

I think if you are not an elite skater nowadays once you are on the other side of 30 you will have a lot tougher time in the league. We live in a world now where teenagers are getting elite training and skills development. This wasn't happening 15-20 years ago. The youngsters of today come in and are much more affordable and provide similar level of play to the 30+ guys.

If you have guys on your team that are going to turn 30 soon be very wary of their future. Sure there are exceptions as in any case but you need to be careful with the contracts handed out. Short term gain for a lot of pain later on.

 

[Turin]

I don’t see any examples. Toews? Mike Richards? Just look at the salary cap big three. Crosby is 31 and a season removed from a Conn Smythe, Richard and second in regular season points per game. Ovechkin is 33 and just won a Richard and Conn Smythe. Malkin is 32 and just was a hair short of scoring 100 points for the 4th time in his career, and he lead the playoffs in scoring a year ago.

 

[ElLeetch]

I remember when UFA age was 31, and people were excited about signing players in their prime.

 

[Tweed]

Last years top 15 scoring leaders and their current ages.

McDavid - 21
Giroux - 30
Kucherov - 25
Malkin - 32
MacKinnon - 23
Hall - 26
Kopitar - 31
Kessel - 30
Wheeler - 32
Crosby - 31
Ovechkin - 33
Stamkos - 28
Marchand - 30
Barzal - 21
Voracek - 29

8 of the top 15 are in their 30s, 10 are 28 or older and only 4 were under 25 for any part of last season. Come again?

Of the 7 players that are 30+, 3 of them are elite top-100 of all-time players. If we treat them as "the exception to the rule", and just make a top 12 list, 66% of that list is under-30.

I'd be curious to see lists for every year, and then from those lists, by decade and by "era".

To throw my hat into the ring... I do sorta feel like players have been getting better at younger ages, and players are also washing-up earlier. Primes feel a little sooner to me now. But again, that's just a sense or a feeling... I'd like to see the actual numbers.

 

[me2]

Or it could be the fact that many of the stars of years past were still getting to top 20 or top 10 scoring finishes and they were pushing 40.

Who?

 

[Spirit of 67]

Combination of speed being more important than ever and teams more commonly embracing youth movements

Salary cap plays a huge roll in this too.

ELC's are obviously cheaper.

 

[POVERTY]

Just like in business, it makes sense to push out the older, slower, overpaid folks when you can bring in a younger talent for a fraction of the price.

 

[Mulletman]

Who?

Selanne was 40 back in 2010-11 when he finished 8th in Points despite missing 9 games because of a bum hip...

And in 2015-16 Jagr was 22nd in Point at the age of 43/44 while missing 3 games. Only one Point away from finishing 19th...

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

And to think the ufa age was 31 for awhile...imagine drafting a McDavid under the old rules. You would have him for 13 seasons and he would have no leverage to get as much as he did. The players would do well to remember that next time they hold out.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Just like in business, it makes sense to push out the older, slower, overpaid folks when you can bring in a younger talent for a fraction of the price.

Yep, for that reason, drafting, development is so important now Getting some UFA gems from Europe helps too..

 

[StoneHands]

Nope in the 90s you heard that a players prime was in 26, 27. But today we are seeing more rapid declines imo.

I think that was the thought because soon after that was when players started to drop off so that was the last age people remembered players being in their prime. It's not technically wrong, it's just that 26-27 is typically towards the end of a players prime and it still is.

Here is a list of some of the biggest names from the 90s (forwards only) and when they had their best seasons. I left off guys like Lemieux, Jagr, Yzerman, Sakic and Modano who happened to have a long prime that essentially spanned their entire careers since they really wouldn't help us find what we're looking for. I only used players who's best seasons fell within an 8 year or less window with a few random outliers.

Lindros- 19-26
Fedorov - 22-26
Kariya- 21-25
Forsberg- 22-29
Selanne- 22-28
Mogilny- 22-26
Bure- 21-29
Recchi- 22-25
Hull - 24-29
Roenick- 21-24
Fleury- 22-27

The average for these 90's superstars was from 21.6 to 26.7 years old. I think if you look at the data today the numbers would look very similar.

 

[Paperbagofglory]

Who?

Would it be cheating to use Gretzky as an example? What about Lemieux? Sakic? Modano? Hull? Lidstrom? Jagr? Selanne? Brett Hull? who at 39 years old scored 37 goals in the dead puck era and finished 8th overall. There are plenty of examples.

List anyone you think who's heading towards that age group or is 30 right now that will be 10 top in scoring when they are damn near 40. The decline is not as giant of a mountain as i suspected when i looked at the numbers, but there is a difference big enough to see that we will not have the same calibre of late 30's early 40 year old players.