Are the Preds going to regret the Ellis contract?

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Legit question, Ryan Ellis is a great player and all, but being small and already lacking speed is that contract eventually going to be ugly? Ellis is not a good possession player without Ekholm and although he's had monster moments with 5on5 production, a lot of it was unsustainable, and it shows since his 5on5 production is pretty low this season. Ellis' playoffs to now has been concerning to say the least.

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[Pred303]

no

 

[Scoresberg]

Legit question, Ryan Ellis is a great player and all, but being small and already lacking speed is that contract eventually going to be ugly? Ellis is not a good possession player without Ekholm and although he's had monster moments with 5on5 production, a lot of it was unsustainable, and it shows since his 5on5 production is pretty low this season. Ellis' playoffs to now has been concerning to say the least.

I hear you, while he's a solid top-4 D that produces offensively and is reliable defensively that contract might not look good in the last few years, and even now I think he's tad overpaid. The way he played last year coming back from that injury was unsustainable and he was MIA in the playoffs when we needed him.

Ellis is the most tradeable guy in the top-4 for me, but really unlikely.

 

[Drake744]

Not really. At least not right now. He needs to produce more but we're better off with him than without him. If we traded him I wouldn't lose sleep over it but with that much term on his deal I don't see it anytime soon at all

 

[triggrman]

In 2 years, his contract will be lower than most top 4 defensemen.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I mean you could regret any contract depending on what happens. Are we LIKELY to regret it is fair question, but I really don't see his play falling that far. He's very intelligent and I honestly think he's carrying and covering up for a very poorly playing Josi right now.

 

[triggrman]

If he’s covering for Josi, he’s doing it wrong.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

If he’s covering for Josi, he’s doing it wrong.

Think Josi might actually be worse than his numbers.

 

[Gh24]

Playing well defensively goes often unnoticed, but once you make a mistake it gets everyone's attention. I haven't seen many games lately, so this is more of a general reminder when judging him. I've seen him play very well defensively and not get credit for it, but that's how it goes.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't think I'll regret that they kept Ellis, bottom line. I mean, it depends on the alternative. Let him walk in the summer? Trade him (for what)? Instead they keep him during what I think are the crucial Next Two Years, and I'm glad he's here for that. There's no practical way they were going to sign him for just 2 or 3 years, so it pretty much had to be a long-term deal.

And there is nothing in that contract that prevents the Preds from getting out of it if/when it becomes uncomfortable. No NTC, no NMC.

So really, if it's something we end up regretting, it'll only be if management gets over-sentimental in handling him, and if things go badly for us otherwise in the next couple of years. I do agree that as a slower/smaller guy he's going to be a risk at some point in that contract term. He's going to fall off and not be worth those $$$. He's only barely worth it now IMHO, and I don't see him as a player with any remaining "upside". But there's going to be an expansion draft, lockouts, there are other contracts coming up for the 3 defensemen ahead of him in our pecking order.

There are going to be ways and motivations for management to do something with Ellis as his beard gets longer and grayer. If they don't... well, I will get on them for it. But that'll be a new complaint, not exactly a "regret". I don't regret that they have him now. And the contract is both fair and escapable. But they better be ready to deal with it in an appropriate manner if/when the time comes is all.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I don't think I'll regret that they kept Ellis, bottom line. I mean, it depends on the alternative. Let him walk in the summer? Trade him (for what)? Instead they keep him during what I think are the crucial Next Two Years, and I'm glad he's here for that. There's no practical way they were going to sign him for just 2 or 3 years, so it pretty much had to be a long-term deal.

And there is nothing in that contract that prevents the Preds from getting out of it if/when it becomes uncomfortable. No NTC, no NMC.

So really, if it's something we end up regretting, it'll only be if management gets over-sentimental in handling him, and if things go badly for us otherwise in the next couple of years. I do agree that as a slower/smaller guy he's going to be a risk at some point in that contract term. He's going to fall off and not be worth those $$$. He's only barely worth it now IMHO, and I don't see him as a player with any remaining "upside". But there's going to be an expansion draft, lockouts, there are other contracts coming up for the 3 defensemen ahead of him in our pecking order.

There are going to be ways and motivations for management to do something with Ellis as his beard gets longer and grayer. If they don't... well, I will get on them for it. But that'll be a new complaint, not exactly a "regret". I don't regret that they have him now. And the contract is both fair and escapable. But they better be ready to deal with it in an appropriate manner if/when the time comes is all.

Didn't he get some kind of NMC? I swear I remember that he wouldn't be in danger of the expansion draft, but maybe that was just our speculation around that time.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Didn't he get some kind of NMC? I swear I remember that he wouldn't be in danger of the expansion draft, but maybe that was just our speculation around that time.

You made me double-check on CapFriendly, but I don't see anything there.

I reckon they sign these guys to long-term deals with it relatively implicit that they mean to keep the guys around through thick and thin and all that, though. I think there was speculation at the time that the NMC was the holdup in why things didn't happen sooner, but at the number they landed on for 8 years, I guess they bought their way out of that holdup. All while still probably at least implying to Ellis that they fully expect to keep him throughout.

So as easy as it is for me to say they better be ready to move him if/when that becomes necessary, it may well not work so easily in reality. But at least they aren't officially obligated to keep him. Somehow I doubt I'll be quite so sanguine about it if that time does come and they hold on, though.

 

[Gh24]

Didn't he get some kind of NMC? I swear I remember that he wouldn't be in danger of the expansion draft, but maybe that was just our speculation around that time.

According to CapFriendly only Rinne has one. Same clause on his old and new contracts, 10 team NTC + NMC

 

[Preds Partisan]

Correct only Rinne has anything. There was a chart not too long ago on the main board that had all the teams' contract clauses and Nashville is at the bottom of the league for clauses.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Not as much as the OP is going to regret creating this thread.