Are the Oilers prospects over-rated??

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Nielson81, Dec 26, 2004.

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  1. Nielson81

    Nielson81 Registered User

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    I don't want to start any fights or anything....I know most people knows i'm a Habs fan so I'll start this by saying....I also think our Habs prospects, as a group, are over-rated.

    Now on to the Oilers...

    The 4th best prospect pool in the league, according to HF?????

    That just seems to high to me. First of all I must state I'm a good friend of the Oilers editor Guy Flaming and I respect his opinion, in fact the man knows more about the Oilers prospects then anyone on the planet.....but the group at 4 seems a little to high.

    1. Rob Schremp, C - Schremp is surprising this year, offensively dominant in the O.

    2. Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers, G - Player in 9 games in the A. 897 save %

    3. Marc-Antoine Pouliot, C - Good, but never good enough to make a WJC team, has been out shone by other players on his junior team etc.

    4. Doug Lynch, D - Probably would have been in the NHL this season

    5. Jeff Woywitka, D - I don't think he will be a top 3 d-man in the NHL.

    I just look at teams further down the list and I don't understand why the Oilers are 4th??

    Nashville - 6th in HF Rankings
    Suter, Upshall, Shishkanov, Radulov, Weber
    Atlanta - 8th HF Rankings
    Lehtonen, Coburn, Valabik
    Anaheim - 9th HF Rankings
    Getlaf, Bryzgalov, Perry
    Wild - 10th HF Rankings
    Koivu, O'Sullivan, Burns, Thelen, Harding

    So basically I'm asking...why the Oilers at 4th ?? Could it be their depth ?? Niinimakki and Rita in the top ten....but do you look at those two as failures because they were top 15 picks who haven't stepped it up yet??

    Help me out here.....I can't figure this one out.
    Guy, you can probably help me the most on this one.

    Unbiased Canadian
     
  2. J17 Vs Proclamation

    J17 Vs Proclamation Registered User

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    Well you are obviulsy not trying to bring the Oliers down due to spite because that would be Toronto.
    Anyway dude i think the Oilers do have a good group of prospects but i think there is a case for them being to highly ranked. I mean i support the panthers and they are at #19 and to me we have the much better top end porspects. The Oliers should be in my view at worse #15 and at best pherhaps #8 or #9. I think the main reason they are at #4 is because of Schremp.
     
  3. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    "Spite because that would be Toronto".

    Well at least you have the Balls of Holly ...(Fah lah lah lah lah lah) to admit that and what is happening here .. :handclap:
     
  4. Vagabond

    Vagabond Registered User

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    I think the oil at least deserve a spot on the top ten for sure. With some of the young talent they have that are also under-rated would be the likes of Tony Salmelainen, Brad Winchester, The Giant Brent Henly could be the next Canadian Chara.. not just because of his size, but last years campaign in 50 games registered 12 points being a point man. They could really utilize a huge man if he uses his size to his advantage. These are just some I have included that Unbiased Canadian didn't mention. The reason why they are pegged at fourth is more for the reasons that they have more depth than the majority of the NHL in prospects(obviously). Also, because the Oilers could not hang onto key regulars and have replaced most of 'em with young potentous prospects for the last seven years.
     
  5. Guy Flaming

    Guy Flaming Registered User

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    Well "pal".... :)

    First I should remind you that the org rankings were done by committee where everyone involved submitted their own list to start things off. I can't reall where everyone had the Oilers but I will say that EVERYONE had the Oilers between 3 and 9 and I didn't give them the highest vote.

    I think the depth of their club is undeniable. There are a lot of potentially top line players, potentially. Keep in mind that this is a team that jetisoned a lot of NHL talent for draft picks so they have a lot of prospects right now, more than most teams so extreme depth is a biproduct of that.

    they are well balanced positionally, which was a factor in the rankings. All they really lack is a sniping winger and a Stud offensive d-man but they have guys in those roles that are not sure bets, but there none the less.

    There were teams tha had great players in some spots, but lacked a sinlge dman to get excited about... and that dropped them in the rankings. (Just an example and not a specific tea, in mind).

    Bottom line, they have a lot of prospects most of which are no less than very good. The top 10 is exceptional and I would say players like Schremp, Pouliot (two of the top 6 in CHL scoring) and JDD are all potentially all star players.

    Further mre, if you read the Oilers top 20 article you would see that I get scouting input from NHL scouts outside of the Oilers organization to get an unbiased opinion. I think that may help explain a professional scout's opinion better than I can, and my opinions are formed from those types of discusssions.

    That's it. Sorry you disagree Dust. hat's cool though, opinions are what this is all about.

    Guy
     
  6. rt

    rt DingDongTippIsGone! Sponsor

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    I would like to commend you all on your sportsmanship thus far. Here's to hoping it continues in a thread like this. :cheers:
     
  7. LaLaLaprise

    LaLaLaprise lalalaprise -twitter

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    Not sure why the OIL are so high? Most of their best prospects are boom/bust types. They dont have very many safe top prospects.

    1. Schremp - about as boom or bust a prospect can get. Personally having Schremp as your #1 rated prospect should tell everyone what they need to know.

    2. D-D - he has grown on me the last 3 years and i think he is the best of the OIL prospects. Still though i dont think he will be an elite goalie.

    3. Pouliot - Overrated is a good word to describe him. Plus injury prone. I dont think he will be a good NHLer. His Max upside i see is a 50 point NHLer...Which is probably good overall but not for a first rounder in an extremely deep draft.

    4. Lynch - I like him. He will play in the NHL and a be a very good 2nd pairing guy.

    5. Woywitka - Much like Lynch i see him as a safe bet to make the NHL, but more as a 3rd pairing defensmen.


    Then you have Greene, who is a decent prospect, but his production is down this season. Nittymaki is decent, but he is another Boom/BUST type. Dubnyk was a reach, he could develop into something, he is an above average 2nd goalie prospect though.

    Then you have older guys like; Rita, Winchester, Salmolainin, Mikhanov, etc.

    I just dont see the prospect depth for the Oilers.

    I am sure some Oiler fans will jump in here and rag me out.
     
  8. hfboardsuser

    hfboardsuser Registered User

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    The Oilers are ranked so high because they're so well-rounded when it comes to their top 20 prospects. 13 forwards, 5 defenseman and 2 goaltenders, one starting and one backup. No other team stacks up as quite as well. For example, Nashville has the most projected bottom-pairing defensemen of the teams you mention, but tie for the least number of projected top-four defensemen. Atlanta has the most projected top-four defenseman, but have only two projected 2nd line forwards- these two happen to be their only projected top six forwards as well.

    Edmonton:

    Potential 1st line wingers/centers: 1
    Potential 2nd line wingers/centers: 6
    Potential 3rd line wingers/centers: 6
    Potential 4th line wingers/centers: 0

    Potential top 4 defensemen: 3
    Potential bottom 2 defenseman: 2

    Potential starting goalies: 1
    Potential backup goalies: 1


    Nashville:

    Potential 1st line wingers/centers: 0
    Potential 2nd line wingers/centers: 3
    Potential 3rd line wingers/centers: 4
    Potential 4th line wingers/centers: 3

    Potential top 4 defensemen: 2
    Potential bottom 2 defenseman: 6

    Potential starting goalies: 1
    Potential backup goalies: 1

    Atlanta:

    Potential 1st line wingers/centers: 0
    Potential 2nd line wingers/centers: 2
    Potential 3rd line wingers/centers: 6
    Potential 4th line wingers/centers: 0

    Potential top 4 defensemen: 5
    Potential bottom 2 defenseman: 4

    Potential starting goalies: 2
    Potential backup goalies: 1

    Anaheim:

    Potential 1st line wingers/centers: 1
    Potential 2nd line wingers/centers: 2
    Potential 3rd line wingers/centers: 7
    Potential 4th line wingers/centers: 0

    Potential top 4 defensemen: 4
    Potential bottom 2 defenseman: 5

    Potential starting goalies: 1
    Potential backup goalies: 0

    Minnesota:

    Potential 1st line wingers/centers: 2
    Potential 2nd line wingers/centers: 2
    Potential 3rd line wingers/centers: 8
    Potential 4th line wingers/centers: 0

    Potential top 4 defensemen: 2
    Potential bottom 2 defenseman: 5

    Potential starting goalies: 1
    Potential backup goalies: 0
     
  9. Blue Bullet

    Blue Bullet Registered User

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    With the rankings it seems that the guys ranking the teams put a heavy value on depth. Another thing to consider is that, other than a few teams, the seperation between teams prospect depth is fairly slim.

    As an Oilers fan would I consider them fourth. Not really, but I think I would put them in the top 10.

    As for depth:

    Forwards:
    The Oilers have forwards in almost every role. Schremp has potential to be a star. Pouliot has the ability to be a 2nd line center. Salmelainen, Winchester and Jacques could be good 3/4 line guys. These are the guys I feel are the safest to reach their potential.

    Than their are the other suspects: Niinimaki and Mikhnov may both be busts but I am still waiting to make a final judgement. Rita will never reach his potential but could be a servicable 2/3 line tweener. He has been having a good year in Finland. McDonald could be a poor man's Geurin and was playing like it up until his injury. Umicevic is the big question mark. Has had as good a year as anybody in Sweden for prospects and may have more offensive potential than anybody outside Robert Nilsson. If he turns out the Oilers have a 1/2 line winger.

    Depth: Every position except a sniper but those are usually gone by the time the Oilers pick.

    Defence:
    The Oilers have a good group of d-men in the system but no studs. Woywitka, Lynch and Greene all could turn out to be top 2 line pairings. Other guys like Tesliuk and Young are good solid d-man that could make it while Jason Platt has showcased that he is a solid defensive d-man that he may also be a bottom pairing player.

    Depth: No top 1/2 guys but have everything else. We have a young Eric Brewer that makes up for this.

    Goalies: This is the Oilers weakest area. No elite goalie but Deslauriers is as good as any other 2nd tier goalie like Ward or Harding. He hasn't played much but most goalies take at least a year in the AHL before they post real good numbers. Dubnyk gives us another goalie with the ability to be starter. After these 2 the Oilers are a little weak in this department.

    So for depth I would argue that the Oilers have everything in the system except some of the top end guys while I noticed some other teams may have the top end guys but little else. The Oilers are a sniping winger and a top pairing d-man away from having a very complete set of prospects.
     
  10. Kevin Forbes

    Kevin Forbes Registered User

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    I was involved with the selection process and the way we ranked teams was each committee member submitted a list and then we found the average of all the lists while discussing any odd rankings that didn't go along with general thinking (abnormalities etc).
    In most cases, teams were seperated by the tenth of point. I think for one position we even had to go down to the hundredth.
    Something that I don't think a lot of the fans understand is just how close the teams were.
    It could easily of been the case that if I would of dropped Edmonton a spot or two on my rankings, they could of ended up out of the top ten entirely. That's how much leeway there was.

    Also, for fairness
    just because Pouliot isn't the best player on his team doesn't mean you should discredit him. He's in Crosby's shadow.
    A lot can be said in terms of constructive criticism against Pouliot (witness La-La-Laprise's post), but the fact he's not the best player on his team means little. Arguably, Schremp isn't the best player on his team either...

    And keep in mind the top 20 for Edmonton has been updated since the org rankings were released. (actually the first in the new cycle of org rankings). A lot of the teams will change as the new top 20s are released (for example, on my "work in progress" ranking for Anaheim, Bryzgalov is no longer a prospect and the list is dominated by blueliners.
     
  11. regdunlap7

    regdunlap7 Registered User

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    He's been outshone by Crosby, who would outshine any prospect. I think Pouliot is a better player than Stewart or Roussin.
     
  12. CH Wizard

    CH Wizard Guest

    ''Are the Oilers prospects over-rated??''

    Not as much as the habs prospects.:joker: :joker: ;)

    Sincerely , no.They don't have many holes that's why imo they're ranked so high.They have so many depht in each position.They maybe need another top notch winger to go even higher.They have nice depht at defence with guys like Lynch , Woywitka.

    They have solid young goalies in Deslauriers , Dubnyk.

    They have a above average depht at center.With guys like Pouliot , Schremp.

    They make a nice steal by drafting Shremp.I still don't know why so many teams passed on Schremp (maybe it's because of his character).He's so underrated.Maybe it's more to more fair to say he ''was'' underrated (just before the draft). :D I watched him play twice and He's so skilled.
     
    Last edited by moderator : Dec 26, 2004
  13. Jason MacIsaac

    Jason MacIsaac Registered User

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    I will take a shot based on my experience:

    1.) Schremp is a special player. He maybe the most gifted player skill wise in the whole OHL. It was only a matter of time before he exploded onto the scene. Many think he will bust, I feel he will blossom.

    2.) Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers is the only reason the QMJHL favorite Screaming Eagles were eliminated. The guy was downright scary in the first two series. The fact that Deslauriers can carry a team on his back means alot in my eyes. No way Sags should have beaten Cape Breton

    3.) Pouliot didn't make Team Canada.......so what. As an offensive centermen Pouliot had to beat out one of Bergeron, Carter or Richards. Because he isn't better then one of those three means he is a poor prospect?

    After that the Oilers have serious depth at every position. They don't have a weakness per say. They have every sort of prospect you could think of. Playmkers, scorers, PF's, physical defensmen, offensive defensmen, stay at home defensmen. You get the point.
     
  14. Lessy

    Lessy Registered User

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    I think the Oilers prospects are a little overrated, but solid nonetheless. Schremp, I feel will become a consistent scorer at the NHL level and was a steal at 25. The choice of Dubnyk really disappointed me. I was jumping when Schwarz was bypassed at 13 then they pick Dubnyk. We'll see what Deslauriers and Pouliot can do at teh pro level, though I doubt either will become standouts. As for underrated teams in terms of prospects, definitely Atlanta comes to mind. Lehtonen, the best prospect is backed by Coburn and Valabik, two huge solid defenders. This team could be scary in a few years with Kovalchuk, Heatley, Savard, Lehtonen, Coburn, and Valabik.
     
  15. Behind Enemy Lines

    Behind Enemy Lines Registered User

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    I'm an Oiler fan and believe our prospects are over-hyped. There seems to be quantity but I wonder about quality. As several have posted, there seem to be a lot of boom-bust prospects. I have a hard time grasping some of the comparisons which have been made on the Oiler board (ie. McDonald as poor man's Bill Guerin) and most laughable (AHLer Mike Bishai as Doug Gilmour-like). I think Brad Winchester was also compared to Joe Thorton. Hard not to be skeptical when one reads such improbable comparisons.

    The Oilers have done a nice job in rebuilding the organization's depth. There seem to be a lot of bottom six talent in the pipeline but missing imo are the elite, top-end talent which is required to compete for the Cup. Schremp looks to be our best bet and Pouliot is finally enjoying a healthy year but we still need scoring and talent. I'm still not sold on MAP.

    A top ten prospect ranking - yes. However I just don't think they have the top end prospect talent to warrant the #4 position.
     
  16. hfboardsuser

    hfboardsuser Registered User

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    Welcome to the Internet.

    So what if they don't have this so-called "top-end talent"? I'd rather have our top 20 than Atlanta's. Sure, they have Lehtonen and Coburn. But they have only two players projected as being top-six forwards! Kovy and Heatley make the need for them a bit less serious, but the team almost lost Heater- now you're down to one young forward who's a gamebreaker.
     
  17. se7en*

    se7en* Guest

    Those comparisons are made for what kind of style they play, not their talent level.
     
  18. Behind Enemy Lines

    Behind Enemy Lines Registered User

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    Thank you for your kind welcome. You mean I shouldn't believe all I read online?

    Well, Atlanta's only been in the league fiveyears so I'm not really surprised they haven't yet built a huge prospect base. They have built a strong base with their high-end picks but I probably wouldn't trade our prospects with Atlanta ... you got me there.
     
  19. hfboardsuser

    hfboardsuser Registered User

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    If you mean prospect base as in their top 20, it wouldn't matter how old the franchise was- prospects only have a limited time frame to be prospects. Atlanta and Edmonton both have the same number of '99 draft picks in their top 20 (Rita, Salmelainen, Baby and Mackenzie) so it's not like being an expansion team hurt the Thrashers when it came to building a deep prospect pool. They just fell victim to having a very poor draft year in '99- and suffered that same fate when it came to late picks in every other draft in franchise history, save for two (Nurminen, Hordichuk).
     
  20. do you ever watch the World Juniors? How can you even say soemthing like Poulion being better then Stewart? Thats unbelievable. Its kinda like saying Patrik Elias is better then Bertuzzi. Stewart is the complete package in terms of having both combinations, of speed, size, offence and good defencively.
     
  21. TroyM

    TroyM Registered User

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    I'm pretty sure he meant Danny Stewart of Rimouski ;)
     
  22. regdunlap7

    regdunlap7 Registered User

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    Yes, thanks, that is what I meant.

    That said, I'd say that it wouldn't shock me if Pouliot turns out to be a better pro than Anthony Stewart. I think A.Stewart is a better prospect and a safer bet, but I think Pouliot might put up more points.
     
  23. triggrman

    triggrman Registered User

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    I'm sorry but Nashville at the very least has 3 defensemen that have top 4 potential.

    Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and Klien all have top 4 potential.
     
  24. Enoch

    Enoch This is my boomstick

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    And one would assume that Upshall, Radulov, or Shishkanov - at least one of those has top line potential. The most obvious choice there would be Radulov who has had a great year thus far in North America...
     
  25. Pepper

    Pepper Registered User

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    Upshall having topline potential?? I don't think so, most have projected him to become a 2nd-3rd liner at best.

    Radulov is IMHO the only one with real first line potential.
     
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