Speculation: Are the Devils making a big mistake holding onto Hall?

[Zezel22]

When someone uses the term "cap team" they are referring to a team that is spending up to the cap. The Devils have not been near the cap in quite a few years.

Clearly I meant cap-space teams. Obviously if you read rest of post. But thanks for notifying me of the error.

 

[Zezel22]

lol.

Please pick me out a "cap strapped" team that has added a $9+ player recently. Like those types of players move all the time.

Funny because I was actually thinking of you when I wrote the post. I distinctly remember reading your posts assuring all of us that the Ranger could not be players for Shattenkirk in the summer of '17 because they had no cap space. I think there were some "lol"s and emojis in there too with how ridiculous that idea was. Now, granted, Shattenkirk was a good miss for the Devils. But Ray Shero was open about his desire to add the player at the time, it was widely speculated that the Devils would be in it, and the Rangers just made it happen. Sure, thats not a 9 million dollar player right? Ok, 6.5.

Matt Duchene was an 8m player this summer who nashville had no prayer of adding until they did.

For years peopel here have been talking about the impending doom awaiting the Lightning when their cap issues catch up with them but every year they find a way to add to their team and not lose their core players. This year they even added a 1 in the process.

To think that Taylor Halll will be available and cap teams will throw up their arms and say "too bad, would have been nice", and move on to Michael Frolik is absurd. Hall will sign where he wants to sign with maybe a few exceptions.

 

[Zezel22]

Dreger reporting that Ferris and Shero met over weekend and perception is that they are gaining some traction on a deal. He also said what Hall has said, that Hall loves the way hes been treated by NJ and the moves Shero has made this summer.

Hopefully this kind of momentum continues. I'd be pleasantly surprised and very happy if they can get this done.

 

[HBK27]

No one is saying Hall is 100% gone. Just that he has been open that he will leave if he thinks he can win somewhere else. And a year after Jt left the Islanders, you would think the GM would have a plan.

IMO, he should have dealt him at the draft for a massive return. If Hall leaves, the Devils lose a massive asset for nothing. Terrible asset management.

What an overreaction.

No one is saying Hall is 100% gone, but you're saying it's terrible asset management that they didn't already trade him? Really?

Hall only played 33 games and was still rehabbing from a knee injury by the draft this summer. You really think they could've gotten a significantly better package over the summer versus waiting until the trade deadline?

Despite whatever tea leaves you're reading, it doesn't appear that Hall has made any decision on staying versus leaving the Devils. Both he and Shero have been very patient in the process and have had a good dialogue. From the Devils POV, they probably want to make sure there's no lingering issues with his knee. From Hall's POV, he probably wanted to see what moves NJ would make over the summer to improve the team. Both sides were not approaching July 1st with any urgency.

They're talking now and there's a decent chance things could get hammered out in the next few weeks. If things fall apart though, the Devils will have a much better idea where Hall is leaning and can make the decision whether or not to trade him by the trade deadline.

Regardless of what happens though, I have a feeling that you're 100% going to say the Devils made the wrong move. If he signs, it will be for too much. If they deal him, the return will not be good enough and they should've dealt him earlier. You're already setting up for those two scenarios.

 

[Kamiccolo]

What an overreaction.

No one is saying Hall is 100% gone, but you're saying it's terrible asset management that they didn't already trade him? Really?

Hall only played 33 games and was still rehabbing from a knee injury by the draft this summer. You really think they could've gotten a significantly better package over the summer versus waiting until the trade deadline?

Despite whatever tea leaves you're reading, it doesn't appear that Hall has made any decision on staying versus leaving the Devils. Both he and Shero have been very patient in the process and have had a good dialogue. From the Devils POV, they probably want to make sure there's no lingering issues with his knee. From Hall's POV, he probably wanted to see what moves NJ would make over the summer to improve the team. Both sides were not approaching July 1st with any urgency.

They're talking now and there's a decent chance things could get hammered out in the next few weeks. If things fall apart though, the Devils will have a much better idea where Hall is leaning and can make the decision whether or not to trade him by the trade deadline.

Regardless of what happens though, I have a feeling that you're 100% going to say the Devils made the wrong move. If he signs, it will be for too much. If they deal him, the return will not be good enough and they should've dealt him earlier. You're already setting up for those two scenarios.

Ok, and what happens if the Devils are in the hunt for a playoff spot? Do they trade him and give up on the season and put the team in a losing culture situation like Buffalo or Edmonton? Or do they keep him, squeak in as a bubble team, and have him walk to a contender?

Of course I am going to say they made the wrong move, unless they manage to get a haul for him or he signs for a reasonable contract, they have made the wrong move already. I would not commit big money into a guy who can't even play a full season in his 20's nvermind his 30's most of the contract would cover.

 

[HBK27]

Ok, and what happens if the Devils are in the hunt for a playoff spot? Do they trade him and give up on the season and put the team in a losing culture situation like Buffalo or Edmonton? Or do they keep him, squeak in as a bubble team, and have him walk to a contender?

Of course I am going to say they made the wrong move, unless they manage to get a haul for him or he signs for a reasonable contract, they have made the wrong move already. I would not commit big money into a guy who can't even play a full season in his 20's nvermind his 30's most of the contract would cover.

What is the max contract you would give to him or a reasonable haul that you would expect another team to give up?

You're essentially saying the Devils are in a lose-lose situation with Hall. He either gets dealt and the Devils spiral into a losing culture ala Buffalo & Edmonton or he gets overpaid and they pay a price later. Maybe, just maybe, he gets signed to a reasonable contract that still may hurt NJ a little at the end, but locks up a superstar player as the Devils window is opening.

It's a huge contract negotiation. Hall has been to the playoffs once and wanted to see NJ improve the team significantly, which they did. Devils need to feel comfortable investing in him given his recent knee injury. Both sides probably wanted to see how the contracts played out over the summer and now into the preseason with so many big RFA's signing late. There was no reason to rush this and get something done one way or another by the draft weekend, which is exactly what you are suggested they should've done. Rushing that decision would have been stupid. Forcing Hall to decide before they acquired Subban, Simmonds & Gusev would've been a mistake. How can you not see that?

Latest reports from several insiders are that Hall and the Devils are working on an extension. Let's hear your number now as far as what you find acceptable, so you can't crap on it regardless if and when it does get announced.

 

[BPD]

Ok, and what happens if the Devils are in the hunt for a playoff spot? Do they trade him and give up on the season and put the team in a losing culture situation like Buffalo or Edmonton? Or do they keep him, squeak in as a bubble team, and have him walk to a contender?

Of course I am going to say they made the wrong move, unless they manage to get a haul for him or he signs for a reasonable contract, they have made the wrong move already. I would not commit big money into a guy who can't even play a full season in his 20's nvermind his 30's most of the contract would cover.

Man, the Devils are in "win now" mode. They've got the pieces across the board and they clearly intend to be competitive for at least the next few years. They're not trading their best forward for magic beans, even if he's in a walk year.

 

[AfroThunder396]

There was going to be no "massive return at the draft" for a guy with 1 year left on his deal coming off a major injury + surgery.

As mentioned before, the Devils didn't trade Parise in 2012 and that was clearly the correct decision, even though Parise was being way more cryptic (only taking a 1 year deal as RFA the year prior).

You can't convince me or a single Devils fan that Calle Jarnkrok + Brendan Smith + 1st or whatever would have been seen as a killer package at the time in 2012 could possibly be worth more than what that playoff run meant to us.

 

[Missionhockey]

Man, the Devils are in "win now" mode. They've got the pieces across the board and they clearly intend to be competitive for at least the next few years. They're not trading their best forward for magic beans, even if he's in a walk year.

I don't really believe they're in win now mode. Even if Hall stays he has to know that their best players (Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, and eventually Smith) are all going to hit their stride in two-three years. This might not be as sexy of a name but I think they're in "take a big step" mode. I doubt anyone aside from maybe the players thinks that they'll be in contention for a Cup this year.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Man, the Devils are in "win now" mode. They've got the pieces across the board and they clearly intend to be competitive for at least the next few years. They're not trading their best forward for magic beans, even if he's in a walk year.

Win now mode when most of their core are teenagers?

 

[BPD]

I don't really believe they're in win now mode. Even if Hall stays he has to know that their best players (Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, and eventually Smith) are all going to hit their stride in two-three years. This might not be as sexy of a name but I think they're in "take a big step" mode. I doubt anyone aside from maybe the players thinks that they'll be in contention for a Cup this year.

I don't think you trade for Subban and Gusev if you're not looking to flip that switch.

The Devils have a good team. That they can bring in the 1st overall in a near-zero pressure situation, slot in a top-tier defensive prospect in a mid-low pairing situation, etc - quite a luxury really.

I expect them to either be surprising contenders, or feel like they're a goalie away. And I don't think that's unfair. They've completely turned the talent profile of the team on its head in a good way, and I'm looking forward to rekindling the Rangers-Devils rivalry

 

[AfroThunder396]

Win now mode when most of their core are teenagers?

Literally just Jack Hughes (an arguably Ty Smith).

Top-3 defensemen (Subban, Vatanen, Severson) are 30, 28, 25
Best forward (Hall) is 27
Best goal scorer (Palmieri) is 28
Starting goalie (Schneider) is 31

They are as much part of the core as Hischier (20) and Bratt (21).

On top of that, older non-core players that are still contributing - Zajac (34), Greene (36), Coleman (27).

You're acting like this is a high school team.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Funny because I was actually thinking of you when I wrote the post. I distinctly remember reading your posts assuring all of us that the Ranger could not be players for Shattenkirk in the summer of '17 because they had no cap space. I think there were some "lol"s and emojis in there too with how ridiculous that idea was. Now, granted, Shattenkirk was a good miss for the Devils. But Ray Shero was open about his desire to add the player at the time, it was widely speculated that the Devils would be in it, and the Rangers just made it happen. Sure, thats not a 9 million dollar player right? Ok, 6.5.

Matt Duchene was an 8m player this summer who nashville had no prayer of adding until they did.

For years peopel here have been talking about the impending doom awaiting the Lightning when their cap issues catch up with them but every year they find a way to add to their team and not lose their core players. This year they even added a 1 in the process.

To think that Taylor Halll will be available and cap teams will throw up their arms and say "too bad, would have been nice", and move on to Michael Frolik is absurd. Hall will sign where he wants to sign with maybe a few exceptions.

its actually hilarious to me that you only come around when a potential negative Devils story comes up

where we you all summer?

Please comment on the "cheap" (according to you) owners spending nearly to the cap now and seemingly going forward.

 

[b in vancouver]

Look at what Mark Stone returned at the deadline. He got Brannstrom ONLY because he agreed to an extension. Hall won't agree to an extension, which means if they trade him they get the usual offer of a 1st round pick, a B prospect, and a depth player. There's no reason to trade him, the team is set up nicely for the next 4 years if he wants to stay. If not, c'est la vie.

Look at what Mark Stone returned at the deadline. He got Brannstrom ONLY because he agreed to an extension. Hall won't agree to an extension, which means if they trade him they get the usual offer of a 1st round pick, a B prospect, and a depth player. There's no reason to trade him, the team is set up nicely for the next 4 years if he wants to stay. If not, c'est la vie.

Yeah they haven't even started talking contract yet. Shero was very busy building the roster this summer and Hall needed to focus on getting healthy and back up to game speed.

Shero has said at the end of camp he's going to have a nice informal talk with Hall about the franchise, their vision for the future, what his plan is and if Hall wants to be a part of that.

If Hall wants to be a Devil then Shero will do whatever it takes to make that possible. If he doesn't want to, Shero will do what's right for the team, which may not necessarily mean trading him. The Devils could have traded Parise in 2012 but they didn't, and got a SCF appearance out of it. That run was more valuable to the club than whatever B-prospect + roster player + low 1st they would have gotten back in trade.

I have a lot of respect for this line of thinking and agree wholeheartedly. Too many arm-chair GMs whom might as well be trading hockey cards as the real world doesn't work that way. I respect the Devil's organization as a whole as it's one of the few teams that, although they've had a few rough years, try to compete every season. It's important. - I'm a Bruins fan and am glad they approach things the same way.
If you're right out of it at the Deadline then Shero has a conversation with Hall on whether he wants to stay and if he doesn't - then you can get your late first, b prospect and o.k. young roster player then. Anything else, including being in the hunt or if he isn't sure, you hold onto him. If he walks, he walks. It's not going to kill your team.

 

[Zezel22]

its actually hilarious to me that you only come around when a potential negative Devils story comes up

where we you all summer?

Please comment on the "cheap" (according to you) owners spending nearly to the cap now and seemingly going forward.

I've commented a few times that I'm happy that the owners spent this summer and am happy to be (looking like) wrong on that issue. Was always happy to be wrong. You may not see it because I'm not allowed on the Devils boards anymore, but I've posted it here a few times. There is a way that people who have the time and motivation for it can search past tweets. If you don't know you can ask @Triumph for help. If you do you'll see it.

EDIT: I didn't notice the "where were you this summer" line. But again. I was here on main board. Thats where you have go when you are interested in the devils but also in independent thought and don't believe that everything is great all the time.

You've been wrong a bunch, including this morning with the asinine take that cap teams would not be able to contend for Hall because it just doesn't happen. But I can see we've just breezed past that.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I've commented a few times that I'm happy that the owners spent this summer and am happy to be (looking like) wrong on that issue. Was always happy to be wrong. You may not see it because I'm not allowed on the Devils boards anymore, but I've posted it here a few times. There is a way that people who have the time and motivation for it can search past tweets. If you don't know you can ask @Triumph for help. If you do you'll see it.

You've been wrong a bunch, including this morning with the asinine take that cap teams would not be able to contend for Hall because it just doesn't happen. But I can see we've just breezed past that.

so your two examples were Nashville with Duchene and the Rangers with Shattenkirk

fair, fine. 2 examples.

Lightning got Point to sign at basically 60% of what hes actually worth. I am definitely sure you saw that coming, though.

 

[Zezel22]

so your two examples were Nashville with Duchene and the Rangers with Shattenkirk

fair, fine. 2 examples.

Lightning got Point to sign at basically 60% of what hes actually worth. I am definitely sure you saw that coming, though.

What does Brayden Point, an RFA playing in a no-tax state for a historically attractive player destination have to do with the Hall contract situation?

I'm completely lost on the pivot to Point.

You stated that teams close to the cap don't create space to sign high level free agents which is an awful take. Now you're saying Point gave tampa a hometown discount (not as much of a discount when factoring take home pay), but what, he took that deal because no one in league could create cap space for him? His rights were restricted and its September. Completely different situation than rights being unrestricted in July.

But to answer your question - did I see it coming? I don't follow the Lightning all that closely but did I see it coming that a player who is playing in a desirable climate city on a uber successful team with no state income tax took less to stay there. I wasn't shocked by it.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

What does Brayden Point, an RFA playing in a no-tax state for a historically attractive player destination have to do with the Hall contract situation?

I'm completely lost on the pivot to Point.

You stated that teams close to the cap don't create space to sign high level free agents which is an awful take. Now you're saying Point gave tampa a hometown discount (not as much of a discount when factoring take home pay), but what, he took that deal because no one in league could create cap space for him? His rights were restricted and its September. Completely different situation than rights being unrestricted in July.

But to answer your question - did I see it coming? I don't follow the Lightning all that closely but did I see it coming that a player who is playing in a desirable climate city on a uber successful team with no state income tax took less to stay there. I wasn't shocked by it.

You brought up Tampa Bay "keeping their core", which includes Point does it not...?

Point is worth probably closer to $11 million than the $6.5 or whatever it is he signed for. Thats a MASSIVE difference that literally no one saw coming. Taxes are not the reason he signed for that amount.

 

[Zezel22]

You brought up Tampa Bay "keeping their core", which includes Point does it not...?

Point is worth probably closer to $11 million than the $6.5 or whatever it is he signed for. Thats a MASSIVE difference that literally no one saw coming. Taxes are not the reason he signed for that amount.

Yes in one of my examples as to cap strapped teams finding a way to keep or acquire high cap number star players I mentioned Tampa Bay. Which is an indication that I did see it coming, isn't it? Since you seem to think that cap problems prevent teams from "finding a way" on star players it would seem it was you that must have been surprised that Tampa retained Point, no? This is getting confusing.

EDIT: Taxes alone, probably not. Taxes + desirable city + elite supporting cast + current status as a top contender are all factors that can drive down a number I would think.

 

[TBF1972]

Funny because I was actually thinking of you when I wrote the post. I distinctly remember reading your posts assuring all of us that the Ranger could not be players for Shattenkirk in the summer of '17 because they had no cap space. I think there were some "lol"s and emojis in there too with how ridiculous that idea was. Now, granted, Shattenkirk was a good miss for the Devils. But Ray Shero was open about his desire to add the player at the time, it was widely speculated that the Devils would be in it, and the Rangers just made it happen. Sure, thats not a 9 million dollar player right? Ok, 6.5.

Matt Duchene was an 8m player this summer who nashville had no prayer of adding until they did.

For years peopel here have been talking about the impending doom awaiting the Lightning when their cap issues catch up with them but every year they find a way to add to their team and not lose their core players. This year they even added a 1 in the process.

To think that Taylor Halll will be available and cap teams will throw up their arms and say "too bad, would have been nice", and move on to Michael Frolik is absurd. Hall will sign where he wants to sign with maybe a few exceptions.

Nashville had to give away 1$ for for 3 dimes and a nickel to make room under the salary cap.

 

[TBF1972]

Ok, and what happens if the Devils are in the hunt for a playoff spot? Do they trade him and give up on the season and put the team in a losing culture situation like Buffalo or Edmonton? Or do they keep him, squeak in as a bubble team, and have him walk to a contender?

Of course I am going to say they made the wrong move, unless they manage to get a haul for him or he signs for a reasonable contract, they have made the wrong move already. I would not commit big money into a guy who can't even play a full season in his 20's nvermind his 30's most of the contract would cover.

How do you define a reasonable contract?
77,00 million for 7 years?
58,17 million for 5 years?
65,358 million for 6 years?
45,00 million for 6 years?

 

[HBK27]

How do you define a reasonable contract?
77,00 million for 7 years?
58,17 million for 5 years?
65,358 million for 6 years?
45,00 million for 6 years?

He won't define it - I've already asked.

Spoiler alert - whatever contract Hall signs will not be deemed "reasonable" by Kamiccolo.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Ok, and what happens if the Devils are in the hunt for a playoff spot? Do they trade him and give up on the season and put the team in a losing culture situation like Buffalo or Edmonton? Or do they keep him, squeak in as a bubble team, and have him walk to a contender?

Of course I am going to say they made the wrong move, unless they manage to get a haul for him or he signs for a reasonable contract, they have made the wrong move already. I would not commit big money into a guy who can't even play a full season in his 20's nvermind his 30's most of the contract would cover.

Taylor Hall will likely sign a long term extension whose AAV takes into account what the Devils need and want to do in the future. If you haven't noticed, Ray Shero did not go out and get himself saddled with a Milan Lucic type albatross and there's no indication that he will do that in the future. I'm also going to venture a guess that the Devils' front office has heard of these people often referred to as doctors who will be able give a fairly accurate assessment of whether any existing or past medical issues will be a problem down the road, or to what extent.

I would commit big money to a 28 year old who is one of the best forwards in the league and a recent Hart Trophy winner who has a clean bill of health from an actual doctor. Anyone with two brain cells in their head would also do the same if they had the opportunity.

If the talks that are going on break down though, the Devils will have a decision to make.

 

[bigbabybuda]

The Devils are the most improved team in the league for my money. I would only name 4 or 5 rosters I would rather have top to bottom than theirs when thinking about the next 7 years or so. I honestly think they make the playoffs this year and maybe even win around. Future is bright in N.J and if winning is important to Hall I don't see to many organizations that look to be a lot better over the next 7 years. At least not any with the cap space to add Hall to their team.

 

[Cheddabombs]

No one is saying Hall is 100% gone. Just that he has been open that he will leave if he thinks he can win somewhere else. And a year after Jt left the Islanders, you would think the GM would have a plan.

IMO, he should have dealt him at the draft for a massive return. If Hall leaves, the Devils lose a massive asset for nothing. Terrible asset management.

omg this is wild. the season hasn't even started lmao