Are the 2017/2018 Leafs legitimate contenders for the Cup?

Are the 2017/2018 Leafs legitimate contenders for the Cup?


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BAM

Registered User
Nov 21, 2016
4,048
2,299
I wonder how much he actually watches Werenski? When Seth Jones is out with injury, his defensive game gets exposed big time. There's a reason Torts employs him as a "rover" (he's actually said this himself), because it's what his strength is.

How much do we really need a rover type defensemen??

Like I said, this forum always fetishizes other team's Dmen. Whether it be Werenski, Parayko, OEL or whomever, they're just always the piece that will take the Leafs to the next level :laugh:
Which is funny too because before injury Rielly was playing better than all of them.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
39,884
9,723
Did anyone see a Penguins team with no #1D winning the cup again?

Did anyone see a Penguins team in recent memory without Malkin and Crosby winning a cup again? I am sorry but Matthews this year is not close to...

Crosby
Malkin
McDavid
Stamkos
Mackinnon
Giroux
Tavares
Kopitar

Maybe you can argue a few of these but he is not performing at 13million level. Not even 10million tbh.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,787
21,963
Should probably define what is meant by "legitimate contender". Seems like a number of people think that any team with a shot at the playoffs qualifies while others have different opinions.

Of course this terminology problem makes every other thread problematic so whatever.
 
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HamiltonNHL

Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
Jan 4, 2012
20,124
10,634
"legitimate contender".
I'd say the better the goal differential the more legitimate contender you are.

upload_2018-1-31_15-2-43.png


Top 4 Goal differential teams are "Legit" Contenders.
 
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X66

114-110
Aug 18, 2008
13,549
7,413
Did anyone see a Penguins team in recent memory without Malkin and Crosby winning a cup again? I am sorry but Matthews this year is not close to...

Crosby
Malkin
McDavid
Stamkos
Mackinnon
Giroux
Tavares
Kopitar

Maybe you can argue a few of these but he is not performing at 13million level. Not even 10million tbh.

If Babcock let Matthews play 19-20 minutes a game, which he is easily capable of doing, his numbers would be much better as well.

Maybe that's the plan for the playoffs.
 
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IBeL34f

Lilly-grin
Jun 3, 2010
8,226
2,649
Toronto
Do people consider Vegas a legitimate contender? I consider their situation similar to ours, where the book on them isn't written enough to safely say for sure. I'm still half-expecting the wheels to fall off there, and am unsure how far they'll be able to ride their work ethic without a serious injection of high-level talent (though they are currently the 2nd-highest scoring team in the League).
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Make sure you're looking at real goal differential, at least.

1.TBL +0.98/gm
2.VGK +0.78/gm
3.BOS +0.77/gm
4.WPG +0.59/gm
5.NSH +0.44/gm
6.LAK +0.38/gm
7.COL +0.34/gm
8.STL +0.33/gm
9.DAL +0.33/gm
10.TOR +0.26/gm
11.CHI +0.24/gm
12.WSH +0.20/gm
13.SJS +0.12/gm
14.ANA +0.07/gm
15.MIN +0.06/gm
16.CGY +0.06/gm
17.PHI +0.06/gm
18.NYR +0.06/gm
19.NJD +0.02/gm
20.PIT +0.00/gm

So by goal differential, Leafs are the 3rd best team in the East, 10th overall in the league.

They are also closer to being a top-5 team in the league (0.18 from 0.44) than they are to being one of the bubble teams on the edge of the playoffs (0.20 from +0.06).
 
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LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
I'd say the better the goal differential the more legitimate contender you are.

View attachment 95055

Top 4 Goal differential teams are "Legit" Contenders.
I would not include Winnipeg as a "legit contender" because they are top 4 in goal differential. Yes they are having a very good regular season. However like the Leafs team of last season, they have no playoff experience.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
39,884
9,723
Make sure you're looking at real goal differential, at least.

1.TBL +0.98/gm
2.VGK +0.78/gm
3.BOS +0.77/gm
4.WPG +0.59/gm
5.NSH +0.44/gm
6.LAK +0.38/gm
7.COL +0.34/gm
8.STL +0.33/gm
9.DAL +0.33/gm
10.TOR +0.26/gm
11.CHI +0.24/gm
12.WSH +0.20/gm
13.SJS +0.12/gm
14.ANA +0.07/gm
15.MIN +0.06/gm
16.CGY +0.06/gm
17.PHI +0.06/gm
18.NYR +0.06/gm
19.NJD +0.02/gm
20.PIT +0.00/gm

So by goal differential, Leafs are the 3rd best team in the East, 10th overall in the league.

They are also closer to being a top-5 team in the league (0.18 from 0.44) than they are to being one of the bubble teams on the edge of the playoffs (0.20 from +0.06).

Zeke.. Who are #1 and #3 on your list? Which one are we going to be facing in the first round? Who would we likely in the 2nd?
 

biotk

Registered User
Jan 3, 2017
7,091
5,520
Buffalo
Top 4 Goal differential teams are "Legit" Contenders.

I am a fan of goal differential. At the same time in 2012 the four teams that made it to the conference final were 5th, 9th, 10th and 12th, while 3 of the top 4 in goal differential exited in the first round and the other team was swept in the second round.
 
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nonikhanna

Registered User
Feb 9, 2011
251
65
Maple Tree
We might have to fight through the toughest division. Atlantic has 2 of the strongest teams in the league in Boston and Tampa. If we can win one round with them, we can win a round with any team.

So what would it take to win a round?
A red hot Andersen. Good solid defense. No Polak as he gets exploited a lot. Good net front presence to get those garbage goals. Fix up our third line in Bozak and JVR so they don't start coasting in the playoffs.
These are some of our needs for the playoffs. The only thing we need at the moment is a stable defense core that can support Andersen in making the most saves he can.

Also one more thing. I read an article a few years back that the team that usually wins the cup or goes deep into the playoffs is the one who goes on a tear during the last leg of the season. We are there right now. Post all Star break. If the leafs can fix up some issues and start winning. We might not end up facing Boston or Tampa in the first round.

I say we have the pieces to be a contender, they just gotta be tweaked a bit.
 

Al14

Registered User
Jul 13, 2007
24,093
5,452
We might have to fight through the toughest division. Atlantic has 2 of the strongest teams in the league in Boston and Tampa. If we can win one round with them, we can win a round with any team.

So what would it take to win a round?
A red hot Andersen. Good solid defense. No Polak as he gets exploited a lot. Good net front presence to get those garbage goals. Fix up our third line in Bozak and JVR so they don't start coasting in the playoffs.
These are some of our needs for the playoffs. The only thing we need at the moment is a stable defense core that can support Andersen in making the most saves he can.

Also one more thing. I read an article a few years back that the team that usually wins the cup or goes deep into the playoffs is the one who goes on a tear during the last leg of the season. We are there right now. Post all Star break. If the leafs can fix up some issues and start winning. We might not end up facing Boston or Tampa in the first round.

I say we have the pieces to be a contender, they just gotta be tweaked a bit.
You forgot to add being relatively injury free and the recipient of a generous amount of luck.
 

TMLegend

Registered User
May 27, 2012
7,779
2,376
Somewhere
I think if they add a piece or two at the before the deadline they have a legitimate shot at a cup.

I'd kick tires on Rick Nash. Think he would be a great addition to the Matthews line and would really solidfy the top 9. I wouldn't give up a tremendous amount to get him however.
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
We might have to fight through the toughest division. Atlantic has 2 of the strongest teams in the league in Boston and Tampa. If we can win one round with them, we can win a round with any team.

So what would it take to win a round?
A red hot Andersen. Good solid defense. No Polak as he gets exploited a lot. Good net front presence to get those garbage goals. Fix up our third line in Bozak and JVR so they don't start coasting in the playoffs.
These are some of our needs for the playoffs. The only thing we need at the moment is a stable defense core that can support Andersen in making the most saves he can.

Also one more thing. I read an article a few years back that the team that usually wins the cup or goes deep into the playoffs is the one who goes on a tear during the last leg of the season. We are there right now. Post all Star break. If the leafs can fix up some issues and start winning. We might not end up facing Boston or Tampa in the first round.

I say we have the pieces to be a contender, they just gotta be tweaked a bit.
If Toronto wants to at least make the Conference Finals they will still have to get through Tampa and Boston. So the question is who they play in the 1st round and the 2nd round should they make it to that point.
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
20,903
Toronto
And so they should be.

It doesn't change the fact that Babcock would have preferred to have Werenski. Whining about the past is useless. It was impossible to know Matthews would get drafted the next year.
Babcock liked Hanifin. Werenski wasn't really in the discussion. To say Babs preferred Werenski is absolute hind-sight.

Marner is fine, and developing fine. Lets see how he closes out the year before we start dropping him like crazy. He's been better than almost all the people drafted behind him since the draft date. I'm very skeptical of Barzal's numbers holding, and Werenski plays mostly with Seth Jones, who I would trade Marner for.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
23,349
21,364
Richmond Hill, ON
I voted absolutely not based on my not believing that Lou will spend enough assets to buy the level of players it will take to make us contenders.

To nobody's surprise me thinks ;)

I votes Yes but only if we add at the TDL. Lou can be a buyer and come up empty.
 

HamiltonNHL

Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
Jan 4, 2012
20,124
10,634
Babcock liked Hanifin. Werenski wasn't really in the discussion. To say Babs preferred Werenski is absolute hind-sight.
Others have repeatedly said the Leafs wanted to "Trade down" for Werenski.
 

TMLeafs17

Why so salty?
Oct 5, 2017
1,696
1,014
If we make the playoffs, then yes, we’re legitimate contenders. Simple as that
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
20,903
Toronto
Others have repeatedly said the Leafs wanted to "Trade down" for Werenski.
I haven't seen any actual evidence for this. It seems if we traded down the guy targetted by the team was Rantanen (who we brought it for extra meetings).

If you can find a verifiable article that indicates this was in play, then show it. It also seems we only would have traded down if Marner was off the board, and we didn't want to take Strome or Hanifin.
 

Ignatius Reilly

Registered User
Nov 25, 2010
648
355
Should probably define what is meant by "legitimate contender". Seems like a number of people think that any team with a shot at the playoffs qualifies while others have different opinions.

Of course this terminology problem makes every other thread problematic so whatever.

I took the 100% Legit contender to mean 100% chance we'll win. I think I got that wrong. Anyone who makes the playoffs is a legit contender in some ways. I'm not changing my vote from Absolutely Not though, as I think we have nearly zero chance. Next year I'll be voting for Legit.

I would not include Winnipeg as a "legit contender" because they are top 4 in goal differential. Yes they are having a very good regular season. However like the Leafs team of last season, they have no playoff experience.

Pretty big difference in where the teams are in the standings though. We snuck in last year, Winnipeg should get home ice. They and Vegas are going to be interesting to watch.
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
I haven't seen any actual evidence for this. It seems if we traded down the guy targetted by the team was Rantanen (who we brought it for extra meetings).

If you can find a verifiable article that indicates this was in play, then show it. It also seems we only would have traded down if Marner was off the board, and we didn't want to take Strome or Hanifin.
This video from the Blue Jackets themselves seems to indicate that.

 
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