Are the 2017/2018 Leafs legitimate contenders for the Cup?

[Gary Nylund]

Every game means the same in the regular season, there's always some excuse. Just because the Jets lost badly to the Leafs doesn't change that. We know if the score of the first game was the other way around, nobody would say to toss it out.

What excuse? Toss what out? We won the game and got 2 points for it fair and square. I'm just saying that it was a long time ago so I wouldn't read anything into it results today, we got 2 points and that's that.

to be honest I find corsica's game by game breakdowns a pain in the ass to work with. so i used naturalstattrick instead, and they don't have xgf.

Makes sense, thanks.

that post was a crapload of work, you big jerk.

You post all kinds of stats here on a daily basis. As far as I know, nobody has asked you to do so I can only guess you do it because you enjoy doing it. I know I didn't ask you do post these stats and I have no idea how much work there is or isn't involved. In any case, calling me a "big jerk" is uncalled for as I was just curious and all I did was ask you an honest question but if it makes you feel better to toss insults at me, go ahead I guess.

 

[Liminality]

So I don't usually read up on the star but I thought this article was pretty interesting talking about our Corsi.

Maple Leafs doing fine getting into high-danger scoring zone | Toronto Star

I'm no corsi stat expert or anything but I understand the basics of it and what it could mean as a predictor for success. I remember hearing we were not doing the best in that department but this article mentions high danger corsi. Not something I usually hear but does make sense. Not all shots being counted equally of course.

It seems to also be a better determination of which teams are a real threat or not? We're apparently 10th in the league at high danger corsi and have the shortest average shot distance in the league.

 

[zeke]

yeah we've been quite good in terms of high danger chances for and against.

but that doesn't mean we should be ok with being bad in low danger chances. low danger chances don't matter as much, but they still matter.

still, though, high danger chances obviously matter much much more.

 

[zeke]

According to naturalstatrick, at 5v5 (score-adjusted):

50.3 shot attempts for % (15th)
51.9 scoring chances for % (9th)
53.0 high danger chances for % (10th)

Other contenders:

TB: #4 CF%, #2 SCF%, #2 HDCF%
BOS: #1 CF%, #1 SCF%, #11 HDCF%
NSH: #7 CF%, #16 SCF%, #19 HDCF%
WPG: #9 CF%, #7 SCF%, #7 HDCF%
WSH: #24 CF%, #24 SCF%, #31 HDCF%
STL: #8 CF%, #8 SCF%, #13 HDCF%
DAL: #12 CF%, #10 SCF%, #1 HDCF%
SJS: #10 CF%, #15 SCF%, #17 HDCF%
PIT: #11 CF%, #11 SCF%, #16 HDCF%
VGK: #6 CF%, #3 SCF%, #9 HDCF%

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

yeah we've been quite good in terms of high danger chances for and against.

but that doesn't mean we should be ok with being bad in low danger chances. low danger chances don't matter as much, but they still matter.

still, though, high danger chances obviously matter much much more.

our xgf% stat is still pretty mediocre though. Should be a lot better imo

 

[zeke]

I wish Manny would do a post explaining the changes to his new xGF model this year, tbh.

 

[zeke]

And the Leafs just moved past the caps and now hve the 6th best record in the league, with the 6th best goal differential per game.

Next Target: Winnipeg

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If you are still saying the Leafs are not a cup contender at this point, you are lying to yourself and to anybody else you try to convince that they can't win the cup.

The Leafs can win the cup and are a contender no matter what anybody says, because hockey is not a game where the winner is decided by who has the most shots on goal, if it were Columbus would have won last nights game in a walk.

But they didn't because that is not how hockey works, he winner is decided by goals and goals alone and when if you have a top 9 of

Hyman Matthews Nylandr

Marner Kadri Marleau

JVR Bozak Brown

and you have Matthews who has 26 on line 1

Kadri who has 21 on line 2

JVR who has 23 on line 3 and then beyond that you have Marleau had 19 so unless he misses the rest of the year with injury he will hit 20, Nylander has 14 but he plays with Matthews so he likely hits 20, then there is Marner at 13 but Marner Kadri, Marleau is killing it so Marner likely hits 20 as well.

To me you have 6 guys, that baring injury are going to hit 20 goals, Hyman and Brown have 11 and 12 respectively so while they would have to heat up they do have an outside shot, would make it 8 20 goal guys but even if they don't hit 20 that is still 8 guys with10+ goals and I am sure Bozak has 2 more in him so that will make it 9, with 3 guys in Matthews JVR and Kadri all having a shot at 30.

Teams don't have that kind of the scoring depth often and the ones that do are cup contenders.

Then you throw Vezina caliber goalie I Freddie, so not only do you have an elite offensive team, but you also have an elite goalie, that combo makes you a cup contender.

"But what about the D?" I hear you ask.

What about it? I mean hey I want an upgrade there too, believe me I do, but the Pens won the last 2 cups, their D was not filled with Norris trophy winners and last year they did it without their top D man.

You don't need elite D to win the cup, not when you have elite offense and elite goaltending and the Leafs do,

Yes they are a championship contender and it is time everybody accepts that fact.

 

[Mess]

The road will go through Boston and TB for the Leafs but the way they're currently playing they will be competitive at least.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yes they are a championship contender and it is time everybody accepts that fact.

Win a playoff round first, then maybe I start to change my mind.
Playoffs are a different beast

 

[Gary Nylund]

You guys should check out the main board, there's a thread called "Looking back at the Leafs ..." and there's a guy there who insists that the Leafs have zero chance of winning the cup. Not 3%, not 1%, not 0.00000001% but zero. One might even say absolute zero. He also insists he understands the difference between low probability and zero chance.

No, I'm not making this up.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Win a playoff round first, then maybe I start to change my mind.
Playoffs are a different beast

You'll start to change your mind if we win the first playoff game we play this spring, book it. That is if we haven't moved into 1st overall before then, that might do the trick as well.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

You guys should check out the main board, there's a thread called "Looking back at the Leafs ..." and there's a guy there who insists that the Leafs have zero chance of winning the cup. Not 3%, not 1%, not 0.00000001% but zero. One might even say absolute zero. He also insists he understands the difference between low probability and zero chance.

No, I'm not making this up.

You'll never be satisfied if you expect intelligent discussion on the main boards. They're clueless and hateful of the leafs

 

[Gary Nylund]

You'll never be satisfied if you expect intelligent discussion on the main boards. They're clueless and hateful of the leafs

Yeah I don't venture over there often but there are times when I have actually seen some intelligent posts. Most of the time though, oh boy.

Funny, when I was reading that clown's posts I was trying to decide if he was clueless or a Leaf hater. Is Leaf hatred really that wide-spread that people say things that are that dumb? I mean that's pretty extreme. Oh well, I suppose I shouldn't be too disappointed that I'm not an expert when it comes to classifying such nonsense.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Yeah I don't venture over there often but there are times when I have actually seen some intelligent posts. Most of the time though, oh boy.

Funny, when I was reading that clown's posts I was trying to decide if he was clueless or a Leaf hater. Is Leaf hatred really that wide-spread that people say things that are that dumb? I mean that's pretty extreme. Oh well, I suppose I shouldn't be too disappointed that I'm not an expert when it comes to classifying such nonsense.

I'm sure he's just trying to antagonize. You can bet if the leafs don't win the cup he'll be saying he was right all along

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm sure he's just trying to antagonize. You can bet if the leafs don't win the cup he'll be saying he was right all along

Well if he's trying to antagonize, he's doing a terrible job. When someone posts things that are borderline Pejorative Slured making themselves look idiotic ion the process, for some strange reason that doesn't bother me at all.

 

[thewave]

Last night was another example of this team not being ready to be a contender. Total reliance on Andersen is not a solution and playing completely unhinged like that doesn't work against contenders. I wish our team could turn that style play on and off like a tap when needed, that's when you know you can contend.

We fail to control the tempo of a game mid stream, the best teams can come out take the lead playing fire wagon hockey and then shift into a more defensive/opportunistic style. So far I have seen us been able to come out flying, get a lead and then just get into these sloppy affairs OR we just play a well structured low event style, not sure what it will take to get a healthy mix of that. Maturity?

 

[Nithoniniel]

You'll never be satisfied if you expect intelligent discussion on the main boards. They're clueless and hateful of the leafs

I had that exact discussion on the Leafs board not long ago. Actually worse, as this poster was adamant that we had zero chance to even win a series, since upsets are rare.

Last night was another example of this team not being ready to be a contender.

Going up against a team firing on all cylinders while having an off night, and still come out with a 6-3 win could just as well be argued as a sign of a contender. The sign of a contender is not to never have off nights.

 

[ACC1224]

Well if he's trying to antagonize, he's doing a terrible job. When someone posts things that are borderline ******ed making themselves look idiotic ion the process, for some strange reason that doesn't bother me at all.

It's an idiotic place at the best of times. The Leaf envy grows stronger every day, the immature can't deal with it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I had that exact discussion on the Leafs board not long ago. Actually worse, as this poster was adamant that we had zero chance to even win a series, since upsets are rare.

That's pretty funny. I suppose that if someone can't tell the difference between low probability and zero chance, then expecting them to differentiate between rare and zero chance is pointless.

Going up against a team firing on all cylinders while having an off night, and still come out with a 6-3 win could just as well be argued as a sign of a contender. The sign of a contender is not to never have off nights.

I was kind of torn. On one hand, CLB just played the night before so allowing them all those chances wasn't impressive. On the other hand, we have a star goalie and he wins games for us sometimes and that's fine too. If we win the cup and Andersen is our MVP, it won't diminish the accomplishment for me one bit.

But then, when I was trying to decide how critical of our play I should or shouldn't be I remembered all those points Kadri scored and decided to just be happy. There'll be another chance to analyze on Saturday, no harm in taking a break and enjoying this moment.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

You'll start to change your mind if we win the first playoff game we play this spring, book it. That is if we haven't moved into 1st overall before then, that might do the trick as well.

is it just me or are YOU starting to change your mind, I seem to recall you not thinking they were a contender before this home stand, but now I sense a change

 

[Gary Nylund]

is it just me or are YOU starting to change your mind, I seem to recall you not thinking they were a contender before this home stand, but now I sense a change

1)
I don't think I ever said we weren't a contender. We'd have to first define what we mean by contender as that means different things to different people. I might have said that we're not among the top contenders and I'd still say the same.

2)
I always felt we had a chance of winning the cup, I just like our chances better today than I did a few weeks ago. Our stock has gone up and I'm always re-evaluating.

3)
Our chances are still slim but much of that is because if we don't win our division, we have a tough road ahead. We could finish 3rd overall and as our reward, get to face the #1 and #2 teams in the 1st 2 rounds. That would mean that there are weaker teams than us who actually have a better chance of going all the way than we do but in this scenario, even if we're likely to go out in the 1st round I'd still say we're contenders.

4)
I said recently that if I was Lou, I'd probably make up my mind what to do at the deadline after a 7 game stretch, mostly because those 7 games contain 5 games against top contenders, after that it gets easier. So far we're 5-1 with one game left. We got thumped by Boston, we didn't impress against NSH (or CLB for that matter) but we did win those games and our win against TB went a long way to make up for those un-impressive wins so yeah, IMO our stock has gone up. Also, it's hard to say it's just a hot streak, the fact that Dermott has made a huge contribution and the fact that the line shuffling has helped a ton too suggests there is reason to be optimistic that we've hit a new level. It's only been a short time so I'm not banking on anything but I see good reason for cautious optimism. We're a good team and I'm enjoying it. And we still have room for improvement, still a couple of months to go, we might well be even better in April than we are today. And when we do f..k up, there's Freddie to save our bacon. I think we're favourites against most teams and we're a tough out for anyone, I don't doubt this at all.

 

[7even]

Hmm I think a small distinction needs to be made. Can they contend for the Cup this year? Definitely. With their offense and a goalie like Fredward it's possible if unlikely. Would you call them Cup contenders? Eh. That's usually reserved for the true powerhouses of the League, like Tampa, Boston, Nashville, and to a lesser extent Pittsburgh. Those guys are on their absolute A game most nights and can matchup against anyone where the Leafs can be a little Jekyll and Hyde-y. They'll need some luck in the hot streak department and matchups if they're going to go deep this year.

 

[zeke]

Hmm I think a small distinction needs to be made. Can they contend for the Cup this year? Definitely. With their offense and a goalie like Fredward it's possible if unlikely. Would you call them Cup contenders? Eh. That's usually reserved for the true powerhouses of the League, like Tampa, Boston, Nashville, and to a lesser extent Pittsburgh. Those guys are on their absolute A game most nights and can matchup against anyone where the Leafs can be a little Jekyll and Hyde-y. They'll need some luck in the hot streak department and matchups if they're going to go deep this year.

Jekyll & Hydey's Record vs. Always A-Gaming True PowerHouses: 5-2-0

 

[7even]

Jekyll & Hydey's Record vs. Always A-Gaming True PowerHouses: 5-2-0

Haha, there's something about sample size in there eh