Are the 2017/2018 Leafs legitimate contenders for the Cup?

[rent free]

I'm a solid maybe for this. We've got an elite offense and a goalie who is good enough to steal a series. Our defense is a work in progress, but it's been trending up all year and is looking quite solid with the revelation of Dermott and Gardiner finally pulling his head out of his butt. All of that still leaves us behind Tampa, Boston, or even Pittsburgh in the East, but I don't see any reason why we can't go toe to toe with them in a seven game series. We might be underdogs, but underdogs win series all the time, anything can happen after all. Even for the best teams in the league, literally everything has to go right to win the cup. Our positives are positive enough that if we put it all together and get a healthy dose of luck, we can take a real shot this year. Obviously I don't expect us to win or even make the ECF, but worse teams than the 2017-2018 Maple Leafs have gone deep.

because we always get outplayed by good teams

 

[BlueBaron]

the record doesn't mean ****. nashville, vegas and washington dominated us and those teams are contenders + washington. if the leafs want to prove that they're elite, they gotta beat the contending teams. we beat the jets big because they had mason in net. change that to hellebyuk and we'd lose. we only beat nashville because of a skills competition. sure the game was close against tampa, but we were outworked by them, what a surprise there. the boston games we were outplayed and relied on mcelhinney to save us in the 2nd meeting. we aren't a contender by any means. we're close but not there yet

Ok ok, I understand now, everyone is a contender but us because our wins were lucky.

 

[rent free]

Ok ok, I understand now, everyone is a contender but us because our wins were lucky.

wrong. those teams are contenders because they actually play good against strong competition. we do not

 

[BlueBaron]

wrong. those teams are contenders because they actually play good against strong competition. we do not

Right, I get it, we are just lucky. Well then taking away players from the roster instead of adding will surely make us a better team.

 

[rent free]

Right, I get it, we are just lucky. Well then taking away players from the roster instead of adding will surely make us a better team.

in the future it will. don't know why you don't understand that. you act as if we have a great chance of winning a cup this year in which we don't and that this is the only year we have to compete which is false.

 

[BlueBaron]

in the future it will. don't know why you don't understand that. you act as if we have a great chance of winning a cup this year in which we don't and that this is the only year we have to compete which is false.

It's real simple....we have a better chance if we actually try than if we just quit and assume the worst.

 

[rent free]

It's real simple....we have a better chance if we actually try than if we just quit and assume the worst.

its real simple....we aren't winning the cup this year

 

[BlueBaron]

its real simple....we aren't winning the cup this year

You don't know that, you're just hoping (which is bizarre). We don't need to win it all for the season to be a success, but anything after the first round is a great experience for our team going forward. Teams don't just go from first round exit to cup they usually work at it awhile. I'd like to start that process now and build on it. You want to sabotage our team, piss off our players and hold off on the process one day down the road when the team is perfect and you have declared "we will win this year" because it is of course impossible your psychic predictions could be wrong. You know in the future when the team is not as deep because of the cap.

 

[Vexed]

I think the idea that 'everyone is a contender' is total myth and the list of Stanley Cup winners in the salary cap era is proof in the pudding. The point structure keeps everyone relatively close in the standings but there is still a sizable gap between top and middle tier teams and then another big gap between them and the rest. We are a middle team and while upsets do happen, they don't happen anymore now than they used to.

 

[thewave]

I think the idea that 'everyone is a contender' is total myth and the list of Stanley Cup winners in the salary cap era is proof in the pudding. The point structure keeps everyone relatively close in the standings but there is still a sizable gap between top and middle tier teams and then another big gap between them and the rest. We are a middle team and while upsets do happen, they don't happen anymore now than they used to.

Well managed and not so much. That's the divide in the NHL now, 100% completely based on how well you manage your cap(assets) and draft.

 

[Slyfox]

We faced Boston and Nashville and both teams outplayed us for the majority of the games. We are not ready yet.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

If we'd get an upgrade on Bozak and another Hainsey - maybe

I think you're right. But at what cost? Maybe we just "dance with what we brung", and make the personnel improvements next year instead of trading away futures at the TDL.

 

[zeke]

the record doesn't mean ****. nashville, vegas and washington dominated us and those teams are contenders + washington. if the leafs want to prove that they're elite, they gotta beat the contending teams. we beat the jets big because they had mason in net. change that to hellebyuk and we'd lose. we only beat nashville because of a skills competition. sure the game was close against tampa, but we were outworked by them, what a surprise there. the boston games we were outplayed and relied on mcelhinney to save us in the 2nd meeting. we aren't a contender by any means. we're close but not there yet

5v5 Score adjusted

TBL: 1gms, 37.5cf%, 36.7scf%, 33.2hdcf%
BOS: 3gms, 44.0cf%, 41.4scf%, 31.6hdcf%
NSH: 1gms, 39.2cf%, 32.2scf%, 42.7hdcf%
VGK: 2gms, 46.1cf%, 42.7scf%, 50.9hdcf%

we've definitely been in tough against the very best/hottest teams (contenders?)...

WPG: 1gms, 56.5cf%, 62.7scf%, 54.7hdcf%
WSH: 2gms, 54.6cf%, 61.2scf%, 68.7hdcf%
DAL: 1gms, 47.71cf%, 55.9scf%, 56.6hdcf%
STL: 2gms, 45.6cf%, 42.6scf%, 42.1hdcf%
SJS: 2gms, 48.6cf%, 50.1scf%, 45.7hdcf%

...but we've handled the rest of the top 10 (near-contenders?) well...

LAK: 2gms, 50.9cf%, 52.0scf%, 62.6hdcf%
MIN: 2gms, 48.6cf%, 45.7scf%, 37.2hdcf%
CGY: 2gms, 50.4cf%, 56.5scf%, 43.0hdcf%
COL: 2gms, 50.5cf%, 50.2scf%, 49.4hdcf%
NJD: 2gms, 50.7cf%, 53.5scf%, 55.7hdcf%

...as well as the rest of the teams above the bubble at the moment.


it'll be interesting to see how we handle the last 5gms we play against TB/BOS/NSH.

 

[rent free]

5v5 Score adjusted

TBL: 1gms, 37.5cf%, 36.7scf%, 33.2hdcf%
BOS: 3gms, 44.0cf%, 41.4scf%, 31.6hdcf%
NSH: 1gms, 39.2cf%, 32.2scf%, 42.7hdcf%
VGK: 2gms, 46.1cf%, 42.7scf%, 50.9hdcf%

we've definitely been in tough against the very best/hottest teams (contenders?)...

WPG: 1gms, 56.5cf%, 62.7scf%, 54.7hdcf%
WSH: 2gms, 54.6cf%, 61.2scf%, 68.7hdcf%
DAL: 1gms, 47.71cf%, 55.9scf%, 56.6hdcf%
STL: 2gms, 45.6cf%, 42.6scf%, 42.1hdcf%
SJS: 2gms, 48.6cf%, 50.1scf%, 45.7hdcf%

...but we've handled the rest of the top 10 (near-contenders?) well...

LAK: 2gms, 50.9cf%, 52.0scf%, 62.6hdcf%
MIN: 2gms, 48.6cf%, 45.7scf%, 37.2hdcf%
CGY: 2gms, 50.4cf%, 56.5scf%, 43.0hdcf%
COL: 2gms, 50.5cf%, 50.2scf%, 49.4hdcf%
NJD: 2gms, 50.7cf%, 53.5scf%, 55.7hdcf%

...as well as the rest of the teams above the bubble at the moment.


it'll be interesting to see how we handle the last 5gms we play against TB/BOS/NSH.

i'm gonna say not good

 

[LeafGrief]

i'm gonna say not good

We could have 100 points already and you'd probably still blather on about how we're not going to win anything this year. It's no wonder you're so set in it though, a person can't be reasoned out of an opinion that they didn't reason themselves into. It's like you decided two years ago that the Leafs were going to suck for 5 and are impervious to any facts or even hockey games that change that opinion.

 

[Confucius]

its real simple....we aren't winning the cup this year

The question was are we contenders, the answer is ofcourse. Are only the eventual Stanley cup champs contenders?

 

[DarkKnight]

Of course we are contenders. Were we all not surprised how we elevated our game last year vs Washington? Are we favourites? Nope. Could we make some noise, get hot and go on a playoff run? Yep.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Sure thing, Gary.

My post:

One whole line at the end about the Leafs record against the top teams this year.

and your response to it:

now that sure seems to be a lot of words you just riffed of my one line, talking about what some mysterious anonymous "Leaf fans" would be saying. I wonder if any of those "leaf fans" you just put words into the mouths of would be named zeke?

Just admit that you get very upset when anyone mentions any reason why the leafs' current record may not perfectly represent their chances against other playoff and contender teams. and then you can admit that your sample size argument was BS if you'd like, too.

Sorry for delayed response, bee away from the net for a couple of days.

Your sample size re. our record against the 5 elite teams based on 7 games is meaningless. And you can wonder and spin it all you want, I never put any words in your mouth and it's pretty lame for you to insist I did, I expected better from you.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I guess it all comes down to how you define "legitimate contender".

If you say there are 16 legitimate contenders because "anything can happen in the playoffs", then sure. The leafs are contenders.

In my mind, a legitimate contender is a team which is expected to go very deep in the playoffs and anything less than a cup final appearance will be seen as a disappointment. In that case, I would most certainly say the leafs are not contenders.

I'd be ecstatic to win even one round this year. Claiming we're legitimate contenders for the cup is just setting yourself up for disappointment. I mean, we finished dead last in the league a mere two seasons ago.

 

[Gary Nylund]

5v5 Score adjusted

TBL: 1gms, 37.5cf%, 36.7scf%, 33.2hdcf%
BOS: 3gms, 44.0cf%, 41.4scf%, 31.6hdcf%
NSH: 1gms, 39.2cf%, 32.2scf%, 42.7hdcf%
VGK: 2gms, 46.1cf%, 42.7scf%, 50.9hdcf%

we've definitely been in tough against the very best/hottest teams (contenders?)...

WPG: 1gms, 56.5cf%, 62.7scf%, 54.7hdcf%
WSH: 2gms, 54.6cf%, 61.2scf%, 68.7hdcf%
DAL: 1gms, 47.71cf%, 55.9scf%, 56.6hdcf%
STL: 2gms, 45.6cf%, 42.6scf%, 42.1hdcf%
SJS: 2gms, 48.6cf%, 50.1scf%, 45.7hdcf%

...but we've handled the rest of the top 10 (near-contenders?) well...

LAK: 2gms, 50.9cf%, 52.0scf%, 62.6hdcf%
MIN: 2gms, 48.6cf%, 45.7scf%, 37.2hdcf%
CGY: 2gms, 50.4cf%, 56.5scf%, 43.0hdcf%
COL: 2gms, 50.5cf%, 50.2scf%, 49.4hdcf%
NJD: 2gms, 50.7cf%, 53.5scf%, 55.7hdcf%

...as well as the rest of the teams above the bubble at the moment.


it'll be interesting to see how we handle the last 5gms we play against TB/BOS/NSH.

I'm no stats expert so forgive me if I'm missing something but what I'm wondering is aren't the some sort of corsi numbers? And haven't you been saying that expected goals are much better than corsi? So I'm just wondering why you're posting corsi instead of expected goals.

I'd toss out the WPG game, wasn't that the first game of the season? If so then I'm not sure it has much relevance today. JMHO.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I guess it all comes down to how you define "legitimate contender".

If you say there are 16 legitimate contenders because "anything can happen in the playoffs", then sure. The leafs are contenders.

In my mind, a legitimate contender is a team which is expected to go very deep in the playoffs and anything less than a cup final appearance will be seen as a disappointment. In that case, I would most certainly say the leafs are not contenders.

I'd be ecstatic to win even one round this year. Claiming we're legitimate contenders for the cup is just setting yourself up for disappointment. I mean, we finished dead last in the league a mere two seasons ago.

Yup that's always the story in these discussions - what does one mean by "contender". And I agree, I'd be thrilled to win one round as well.

 

[BAM]

I'm no stats expert so forgive me if I'm missing something but what I'm wondering is aren't the some sort of corsi numbers? And haven't you been saying that expected goals are much better than corsi? So I'm just wondering why you're posting corsi instead of expected goals.

I'd toss out the WPG game, wasn't that the first game of the season? If so then I'm not sure it has much relevance today. JMHO.

Every game means the same in the regular season, there's always some excuse. Just because the Jets lost badly to the Leafs doesn't change that. We know if the score of the first game was the other way around, nobody would say to toss it out.

 

[zeke]

I'm no stats expert so forgive me if I'm missing something but what I'm wondering is aren't the some sort of corsi numbers? And haven't you been saying that expected goals are much better than corsi? So I'm just wondering why you're posting corsi instead of expected goals.

I'd toss out the WPG game, wasn't that the first game of the season? If so then I'm not sure it has much relevance today. JMHO.

to be honest I find corsica's game by game breakdowns a pain in the ass to work with. so i used naturalstattrick instead, and they don't have xgf.

that post was a crapload of work, you big jerk.

 

[Goleafsgo95]

Do I expect us to win the cup? No. But we are contenders. There are so many factors that go into the playoffs and we have seen bottom seeded teams win in the past. With Boston's emergance, though, the path through our division is extremely challenging. For all the talk of the Atlantic division being weak it certainly won't seem that way come playoff time. Very top heavy division.

Things that give me hope:
- Matthews seems like he has the makings of being one of the truly clutch players of this era
- The team elevated come playoff time last year and found a new gear and we have that experience to build off
- Andersen at his best could be an X factor in a series
- Lou is a great team builder and will know what we need even if it's a subtle move
- The way Babcock has managed minutes will bode well for a deep run in terms of players being fresh and less prone to injuries than other teams

 

[Sniper99]

its real simple....we aren't winning the cup this year

Its real simple.... Make the playoffs and anything can happen, see what happened with the 8th seeded Kings a few years ago.