Value of: Anthony Mantha to Edmonton

[MBH]

youve no clue what an important peice a big and rugged sniping winger is . or what a great line larkin , bertuzzi , mantha are . mantha , larkin , bertuzzi , hronek , seider , zadina , veleno are the new core thats built off of not traded away .

right.
He's such a big of all the great things happening in Detroit.
I don't really want to get into a spot where I'm ripping Mantha in a thread where were talking about his value - but so far we know this about Mantha:
1) Undeniable sniper.
2) As "big and rugged" as he is, seems injury prone.
3) Always seems to have a reason to come up short (injuries, floating, whatever)

Mantha's got a real interesting contract coming up. Stevie almost certainly has to overpay him, or risk a short contract, watching Mantha blow up for one season and then flee as a UFA. f***, Mantha might do that whether he blows up or not.

He might never have more trade value than right now.
That's why you trade him.

But go ahead. Be a genius. Talk about trying to get value for AA while his value is at his lowest.

Trade Mantha this year. Resurrect AA's value and trade him next year.

 

[golffuul]

Yeah...I'm not trading Mantha for defensive help. I'd be trading him for a younger version and a draft pick, if anything. If you're trading Mantha, it's because the team you're trading him to has a window to win that will end before yours starts and they're willing to sacrifice their 5-year future to have a number of years to take a crack at a cup and overpay to do it.

I don't think Ken Holland is aggressive enough to make that kind of over-payment, when the window is just starting to open.

 

[Go Wings]

Yamamoto is already doing things Mantha has never done....Average a ppg ...and this basically his rookie season. Lets see what Yams ceiling is. Oilers just aren't going to flip him for a 45 to 50 point slow footed help for McDavid. Mantha is all wrong for Connor.

LMAO he has played 18 games this is what you are basing your argument on somehow he is better than Mantha? Mantha is slow footed you literally have never seen him play have you?

The Wings are not trading Mantha to the Oilers not to worry especially not for your short little guy.

 

[golffuul]

right.
He's such a big of all the great things happening in Detroit.
I don't really want to get into a spot where I'm ripping Mantha in a thread where were talking about his value - but so far we know this about Mantha:
1) Undeniable sniper.
2) As "big and rugged" as he is, seems injury prone.
3) Always seems to have a reason to come up short (injuries, floating, whatever)

Mantha's got a real interesting contract coming up. Stevie almost certainly has to overpay him, or risk a short contract, watching Mantha blow up for one season and then flee as a UFA. ****, Mantha might do that whether he blows up or not.

He might never have more trade value than right now.
That's why you trade him.

But go ahead. Be a genius. Talk about trying to get value for AA while his value is at his lowest.

Trade Mantha this year. Resurrect AA's value and trade him next year.

Salary isn't an issue for someone like Mantha, right now. He's not going to make much more than 7M/year and that's chump change for Detroit, whose about to lose a ton of contracts to retirement. They probably need Nielsen's contract just to make the floor, for next year, which is sad.

 

[iCanada]

You guys state the need for LD? Mantha is too rich for my blood, would Detroit be interested in moving Athanasiou for with one of Jones / Lagesson being the center piece?

Both of them showed better than Bear in the AHL by a good margin, and were ahead of John Marino in the depth chart. But neither has really had an opportunity to play at the NHL level because we've have Nurse, Klefbom, Russell, and prior to this year Sekera in the left side.

 

[roman star]

right.
He's such a big of all the great things happening in Detroit.
I don't really want to get into a spot where I'm ripping Mantha in a thread where were talking about his value - but so far we know this about Mantha:
1) Undeniable sniper.
2) As "big and rugged" as he is, seems injury prone.
3) Always seems to have a reason to come up short (injuries, floating, whatever)

Mantha's got a real interesting contract coming up. Stevie almost certainly has to overpay him, or risk a short contract, watching Mantha blow up for one season and then flee as a UFA. ****, Mantha might do that whether he blows up or not.

He might never have more trade value than right now.
That's why you trade him.

But go ahead. Be a genius. Talk about trying to get value for AA while his value is at his lowest.

Trade Mantha this year. Resurrect AA's value and trade him next year.

let me know how many power forwards like mantha are in the league today or coming up in the draft ? youve no clue what a rare player mantha is . and besides the physical aspect is his quick thinking as you see him click with larkin and bertuzzi , youve no idea how difficult it is to find a big aircraft carrier with hands , shot , ruggedness , size , smarts plus that can skate with good speed for size .

 

[MBH]

let me know how many power forwards like mantha are in the league today or coming up in the draft ? youve no clue what a rare player mantha is . and besides the physical aspect is his quick thinking as you see him click with larkin and bertuzzi , youve no idea how difficult it is to find a big aircraft carrier with hands , shot , ruggedness , size , smarts plus that can skate with good speed for size .

Power forward?
OK bro.
Never topped 25 goals. Gets hurt every time he shows aggression.
Maybe Mantha should just pretend he's 5'9, 170 and be a 30 goal man.

 

[LarKing]

Yeah, but he's a real deal who's 25 and we are 3-4 years from being any good.
So you're looking at 29-30 year old Mantha about the time we're ready to even contend for a playoff spot.

We can nibble around the edges and trade Athanasiou while his value is lowest.
Or you can be bold.
Drouin for Sergachev bold.

You really don’t know that. Colorado and Toronto both went from last overall to the playoffs the next season. Things can change very quickly with good management and drafting in this league.

If we’re doing a Sergachev for Drouin deal, ie one where we get the clearly better player, I’m in though.

I just don’t think you’ll get fair value as Mantha keeps getting injured before he can put up the stats he’s capable of.

 

[LarKing]

With him already being 25 and the Redwings still with multiple rebuilding years ahead of them, do you think there is any situation where trading him isn't inevitable as they wont be in a position to get the most out of the rest of his prime? Where as the return could better speed up the rebuild with pieces that better align with the teams window?

I think in almost every situation trading Mantha isn’t inevitable. I get that he’s not 20, but how are we ever going to actually become a good team if we just trade every good player that’s 25 and up? Let’s be a good team first and worry about having a good player on our team when the problem is actually a problem.

 

[andidrw]

Power forward?
OK bro.
Never topped 25 goals. Gets hurt every time he shows aggression.
Maybe Mantha should just pretend he's 5'9, 170 and be a 30 goal man.

If he never scored 25 why all oliers fans wanna trade for him

 

[zar]

I just don’t understand why anyone would want to trade Nurse. He’s the kind of player that ages extremely well. It’d take a lot for me to move him and Mantha is not that guy.

As on Oiler fan, I agree. If I were the Red Wings, that's what it would take. Nurse's extension, taking him to UFA, hurts his trade value.

 

[Captain Controversy]

Mantha for nurse would be a good trade.

 

[MBH]

You really don’t know that. Colorado and Toronto both went from last overall to the playoffs the next season. Things can change very quickly with good management and drafting in this league.

If we’re doing a Sergachev for Drouin deal, ie one where we get the clearly better player, I’m in though.

I just don’t think you’ll get fair value as Mantha keeps getting injured before he can put up the stats he’s capable of.

Toronto traded:
Kessel 26. 5-time 30-goal man.
Phaneuf 29. Former NHL all star.

You will probably never get more value for Mantha than you will right now.

 

[Meeqs]

I think in almost every situation trading Mantha isn’t inevitable. I get that he’s not 20, but how are we ever going to actually become a good team if we just trade every good player that’s 25 and up? Let’s be a good team first and worry about having a good player on our team when the problem is actually a problem.

Det surely isn't in any rush to move him. However to your question of how do you actually become a good team: the answer is the same for any team. You need to obtain a high end core all within a few years of age of each other so they hit their primes at the same time. Looking at where Det is at currently anyone older than 23 I would say is not going to be a part of that. So specifically on Mantha I asked the question because its clear from an outsiders perspective to me that he will not be part of a true contender for Det if and when it should happen.

So the options with him given that assumption are you could move him and obtain pieces that will certainly be solutions for that team, keep him which won't really provide anything too valuable as he will be done with his prime while the team is entering it, or worse case he leaves as a UFA and Det gets nothing.

Finally back to my first point in that Det still isn't in any rush. To me the real question is, how much more value do you gain trading him now, vs when he is lets say 1-2 years away from UFA?

I don't expect for Det to move him though personally, at least not yet.

 

[DarthProbert]

If he never scored 25 why all oliers fans wanna trade for him

Same reason we keep paying English teachers even though so many people graduate illiterate...we still have to try.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Price would be too high

Yes it would, More then Holland would ever give up. That's for sure.

 

[LarKing]

Det surely isn't in any rush to move him. However to your question of how do you actually become a good team: the answer is the same for any team. You need to obtain a high end core all within a few years of age of each other so they hit their primes at the same time. Looking at where Det is at currently anyone older than 23 I would say is not going to be a part of that. So specifically on Mantha I asked the question because its clear from an outsiders perspective to me that he will not be part of a true contender for Det if and when it should happen.

So the options with him given that assumption are you could move him and obtain pieces that will certainly be solutions for that team, keep him which won't really provide anything too valuable as he will be done with his prime while the team is entering it, or worse case he leaves as a UFA and Det gets nothing.

Finally back to my first point in that Det still isn't in any rush. To me the real question is, how much more value do you gain trading him now, vs when he is lets say 1-2 years away from UFA?

I don't expect for Det to move him though personally, at least not yet.

I respect your opinion but the bolded really isn’t true. Chicago had Keith, Seabrook, Hossa, Sharp, etc that weren’t Toews or Kane’s age. Boston has ages all over. Pittsburgh had a lot of help from their youth outside of their core with Murray and Guentzel (although maybe they’re considered core now). St. Louis had ages all over the chart.

It would be nice if Mantha were 20 but 25 isn’t old. Maybe he’s 30 when we make it to the playoffs again, maybe he’s 26. Things change quickly in this league so that’s hard to say. But I can tell you that it’ll be longer for us to be back there if we trade Mantha.

 

[LarKing]

Toronto traded:
Kessel 26. 5-time 30-goal man.
Phaneuf 29. Former NHL all star.

You will probably never get more value for Mantha than you will right now.

Toronto got Kapanen from that deal. The best thing there was them finishing last from no Kessel honestly. We have that wrapped up already so no benefit there.

We’ll also probably have to spend at least a few more years looking to find another big, skilled forward who can skate, shoot, and pass. I’d rather just keep the one we have now and actually try to be good.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

MBH with the hot take thread of the week. Can’t help himself I suppose. It’s why half the Red Wings board has him on the ignore list.

Mantha isn’t being moved for anything short of a ridiculous overpayment.

 

[Meeqs]

I respect your opinion but the bolded really isn’t true. Chicago had Keith, Seabrook, Hossa, Sharp, etc that weren’t Toews or Kane’s age. Boston has ages all over. Pittsburgh had a lot of help from their youth outside of their core with Murray and Guentzel (although maybe they’re considered core now). St. Louis had ages all over the chart.

It would be nice if Mantha were 20 but 25 isn’t old. Maybe he’s 30 when we make it to the playoffs again, maybe he’s 26. Things change quickly in this league so that’s hard to say. But I can tell you that it’ll be longer for us to be back there if we trade Mantha.

Chi also had cap circumvention and KILLER luck with D&D. Its not really possible to follow that model any longer.

Stl is also a pretty massive outlier.

In general though the age window you want is about 4 years from top to bottom. The closer the age of your core the longer your actual window. Its true you could always have a miracle year but its not exactly a plan for building a team.

If you look at all the teams that have long cup contention windows you see similar patterns.

If Mantha is 30 when the team is competitive (which is a fair estimate) then at best he will have 3ish years left without dropping off but ultimately will be on a non-efficient deal.

I would also fully disagree with "things change quickly". I think it is the complete opposite, teams can implode quickly but building a team the right way takes time, patience and good decisions.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

I'd definitely be interested, probably more so in Tyler Bertuzzi if the wings are after Broberg and a 2020 1st

 

[LarKing]

Chi also had cap circumvention and KILLER luck with D&D. Its not really possible to follow that model any longer.

Stl is also a pretty massive outlier.

In general though the age window you want is about 4 years from top to bottom. The closer the age of your core the longer your actual window. Its true you could always have a miracle year but its not exactly a plan for building a team.

If you look at all the teams that have long cup contention windows you see similar patterns.

If Mantha is 30 when the team is competitive (which is a fair estimate) then at best he will have 3ish years left without dropping off but ultimately will be on a non-efficient deal.

I would also fully disagree with "things change quickly". I think it is the complete opposite, teams can implode quickly but building a team the right way takes time, patience and good decisions.

It was legal then. The wings did it too to an extent with Zetterberg’s contract. Smart GMs take advantage of things like that.

Which teams that have followed this formula well have won cups with it or been consistently successful? I’m not mocking, legitimately asking. Would you count Pittsburgh? Letang, Fleury, Malkin, and Crosby were all close. I think I’d count them as an outlier though because they got Malkin and Crosby in back to back years. No team will be able to do that for quite a while under the current lottery system unless they get extreme luck.

I agree with you on patience, but I just don’t see many good examples of this strategy working. The pick or prospect we get from trading Mantha would be a better age but odds are we’re lucky if they become half of what Mantha already is. I’d rather just roll the dice with him and continue to draft and develop a younger core with him.

 

[Spawn]

Lots, the Wings aren't trading Mantha.

Edit: To be fair to the OP, I will give it a go.... Nurse + 1st.

I doubt the Oilers would trade Nurse for Mantha 1 for 1, let alone adding a first rounder.

 

[Go Wings]

Look the Wings are NOT trading: Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi, Hronek, Seider, their 1 round pick and probably not Fabbri (though if the right deal came up they may move him)

Literally anyone else is fair game.

 

[newfy]

Yamamoto is already doing things Mantha has never done....Average a ppg ...and this basically his rookie season. Lets see what Yams ceiling is. Oilers just aren't going to flip him for a 45 to 50 point slow footed help for McDavid. Mantha is all wrong for Connor.

Lol Manthas career average per 82 games is 53 points, 26 goals per 82 games as well. Calling him a 45 point player because hes had injuries is a weak attempt to make him sound bad. His average for 82 games the last 2 seasons is 62 points and 30 goals. Thats on absolutely horrible teams. Put him with Draisatl and RNH and hes making Yamamoto look like nothing special. Also completely wrong about his skating, hes a great skater. I would say borderline elite for his size actually. Seriously Mantha would be insane with McDavid or Draisatl and hes definitely a better skater than Drai is.

This clip is from the AHL but hes going stride for stride with Athanasiou and blowing the other team away. Hes far from slow lol