Player Discussion Anthony Duclair

[Fandlauer]

3 years is waaaaay too much for this guy. I've liked his play, but there's no way I'd want him signed more than 2 years tops.

 

[starling]

Leave it up to the Sens to back into this guy and watch him figure it out. Credit to Crawford/Raymond/whoever is getting this out of him. He looks like a keeper for sure.

I certainly wouldn't go long-term, but he's earned himself a 2 year deal in the 3-4 million (total) range.

He's RFA at league minimum salary. Doubt even arbitration (which would probably be dumb for him to file for in the first place) gives him more than 1 Million per year.
IMO that's what he'll end up signing for - 1M per year for 1 or 2 years.

 

[topshelf15]

1 or 2 years max ,lets make sure he is really here to play

 

[stempniaksen]

He's RFA at league minimum salary. Doubt even arbitration (which would probably be dumb for him to file for in the first place) gives him more than 1 Million per year.
IMO that's what he'll end up signing for - 1M per year for 1 or 2 years.

Thought I read he was arbitration eligible. I'm also not convinced it would be dumb of him to go to arbitration given it's based off raw numbers more than anything and his career numbers are propped up by his rookie season numbers (and his short stint with the Sens I suppose). Regardless though, you might be right. He does seem like he wants to make it work here (proximity to home is probably a factor, but I'm she he realizes this may be his last chance as well).

I think the team could sign him to whatever they want if it's for one year, I just think he's worth the slight gamble of the 2nd year in case he continues to impress. If they need to pay him an extra 500-600k to lock him up for an extra year I hope they do.

 

[otown]

Based on some of the interviews and observing him with his teammates, he seems to be really comfortable with this young group.
Acceptance, production, and a sense of belonging can go a long way in seeing what his potential really is!
He has been given an opportunity and he is motivated not to blow it!

 

[Sensinitis]

Really impressed by his skill. I knew he was talented but this guy can go end to end pretty easily. Great wheels and hands. Not for nothing he scored 50 goals in 59 games in the Q.

Tkachuk, Duclair, Formenton, Balcers is a pretty damn talented (and cheap ) group of LWs for next year... Loving the type of players the team is icing right now.

 

[swiftwin]

Acceptance, production, and a sense of belonging can go a long way in seeing what his potential really is!
He has been given an opportunity and he is motivated not to blow it!

People underestimate how important this is. Young players want to be part of a rebuild.

I work with Bowers' uncle, and he told me about how excited he was when he went Colorado (don't forget, we were contending and they were rebuilding at the time), because he would have an opportunity to reach the NHL quicker and learn the game faster. It can't be easy for a young player to learn to play the game properly on an established team with a coach like Tortorella breathing down your neck.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

He's RFA at league minimum salary. Doubt even arbitration (which would probably be dumb for him to file for in the first place) gives him more than 1 Million per year.
IMO that's what he'll end up signing for - 1M per year for 1 or 2 years.

He's on pace for 20 goals for the second time in his career with almost 300 career games.

He'll get 2M-3M in arbitration on a 1 year deal.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

He's on pace for 20 goals for the second time in his career with almost 300 career games.

He'll get 2M-3M in arbitration on a 1 year deal.

Does arbitration strictly look at numbers? Only a few weeks ago at the deadline Duclair was a throw in and had no value. I'm curious to see if he gets north of 2 million. He has looked good in the last 17 games with Ottawa and has put up points as well which has really saved him.

 

[coladin]

Leave it up to the Sens to back into this guy and watch him figure it out. Credit to Crawford/Raymond/whoever is getting this out of him. He looks like a keeper for sure.

I certainly wouldn't go long-term, but he's earned himself a 2 year deal in the 3-4 million (total) range.

I think the credit should also go to Tortorella, who gave a scathing assessment that maybe exposed his problems all along : not listening. Looks like he is paying attention now. The guy looks amazing.

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

He kind of reminds me of Mariusz Czerkawski.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Does arbitration strictly look at numbers? Only a few weeks ago at the deadline Duclair was a throw in and had no value. I'm curious to see if he gets north of 2 million. He has looked good in the last 17 games with Ottawa and has put up points as well which has really saved him.

Yes.

Right after the trade, I brought up how I thought it wasn't a given that the Senators would qualify Duclair because he had a strong enough arbitration case already based on his CBJ numbers, and if he is so/so here, they might not want to risk being stuck paying him an inflated amount based on those numbers.

Because he's been good here, that won't be an issue. But they still will have to be prepared to potentially have to pay him something in the 3.XX range if he gets a really favorable ruling. Keep in mind, that's the extreme end of things, I'm not saying he's going to get 3+ million, just that arbitration can be volatile and leave teams without control over what a player is going to get, so they have to prepare for the worst.

An example of that scenario, Brett Connolly wasn't qualified by WSH after 15 goals and 23 points. They wanted to keep him, but they didn't want to risk going to arbitration. He became a UFA, and they negotiated a 2 year 1.5M AAV deal (equivalent to a 1.67M AAV under the upcoming rumoured 83.5M salary cap).

So worse most recent stats for his most recent season, lesser career stats, lesser career highs, and he got 1.5M from WSH outside of arbitration.

2M+ is what I'd expect for Duclair on a 1 year deal.

 

[Xspyrit]

Duclair helps the rebuild. If he turned a corner and finally establishes himself as a top-6 forward, he’s young enough to be part of the core going forward. If not, he can be at least a middle-6 scorer with some value and we get a valuable asset or two for him before he goes into his UFA years.

Tkachuk-Brown-Batherson : this line has the potential to be a legit 1st line, each of them has a sky is the limit potential. We are already seeing what Tkachuk will become, it’s just in his blood. Batherson has the « it » factor, a development curve remeniscent of Mark Stone. Brown has a incredible skillset and playing between those 2 guys will help him reach his potential.

Duclair-Norris-White : Formenton could also be the guy on the LW but if Duclair is finally breaking out, he adds serious scoring potential on that line. White and Norris will be very complete players, smart all over the ice. They should help Duclair defensive game. That line would be super fast with a pretty good skill level for a 2nd line.

Formenton-Chlapik-Balcers : it’s a bit unknown at this point what they could do but imagine getting 3 guys who could put 35-45 pts from the 3rd line. Another fast line with very good skill level for a 3rd line

Paul-Pageau-Davidsson : those guys would be the main PK guys and would be in charge of the main defensive assignments. Another pretty fast line. For that line I don’t the guys with the most offensive potential but guys that can keep the puck away from our zone and do a bit of everything.

Wild cards : Abramov, Veronneau, Crookshank, Gruden, Luchuk, Kelly, Nurmi : those guys will have to do really good to beat the guys in the lineup above. If there’s no spot and some deserve to be in the NHL then packaging multiple assets for a star player will have to happen. Dorion is stockpiling quality assets so it could be advantageous down the line. Something will have to give because a massive logjam is coming up.

To be traded in the near future : Tierney, Boedker, Ryan, Smith : expensive vets, already declining, losing speed. I know Tierney is younger but IMO he shouldn’t be a core piece and be traded at his peak value. The other 3 guys are placeholders for now

Defense : DeMelo is there because he plays solid and fits with Chabot. They need a first pairing RHD so hopefully they come out with a few very good prospects at that position in the next 2 drafts (focus should be high offensive potential centers and RHDs)

Chabot-DeMelo
Brännström-JBD
Wolanin-Jaros
Lajoie, Tychonick

To be traded in the near future : Ceci, Harpur, Borowiecki : placeholders while the young guys develop.


Goalies : Nilsson (will he be signed?), Hogberg, Daccord, Gustavsson, Mandolese

To be traded in the near future : Anderson (nearing retirement)

Potential among goalies is there, hard to say what will happen for now. May the 2 best wins


Overall, hard to not like the potential of this team and with many high picks in the next 2 drafts and a very good drafting record, the future might be brighter than Sens haters seem to think. Of course, that’s if finances don’t become a problem once again and Melnyk decides to sell in a not too distant future

 

[DrEasy]

I'm happy to give him a longer term contract. Better to spend on upside than on washed up veterans with intangibles to try to reach the cap floor.

 

[Answer]

We need to absolutely sign him to at least a 1 year deal. Money is irrelevant

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Give him 2.5 per for 2 years. That seems fair for both sides.

 

[bert]

Id like to see a 2 year deal, still a show me deal but makes him play and be accountable for two full seasons before making a big decision on him.

 

[aragorn]

I'd like to see him on a better line with smarter players who might be able to get him the puck in scoring areas. I wonder what kind of player he would be on a line with Tkachuk & White.

 

[Icelevel]

Give him 2.5 per for 2 years. That seems fair for both sides.

Maybe 2, 2.5

 

[Sen sational]

Duclair helps the rebuild. If he turned a corner and finally establishes himself as a top-6 forward, he’s young enough to be part of the core going forward. If not, he can be at least a middle-6 scorer with some value and we get a valuable asset or two for him before he goes into his UFA years.

Tkachuk-Brown-Batherson : this line has the potential to be a legit 1st line, each of them has a sky is the limit potential. We are already seeing what Tkachuk will become, it’s just in his blood. Batherson has the « it » factor, a development curve remeniscent of Mark Stone. Brown has a incredible skillset and playing between those 2 guys will help him reach his potential.

Duclair-Norris-White : Formenton could also be the guy on the LW but if Duclair is finally breaking out, he adds serious scoring potential on that line. White and Norris will be very complete players, smart all over the ice. They should help Duclair defensive game. That line would be super fast with a pretty good skill level for a 2nd line.

Formenton-Chlapik-Balcers : it’s a bit unknown at this point what they could do but imagine getting 3 guys who could put 35-45 pts from the 3rd line. Another fast line with very good skill level for a 3rd line

Paul-Pageau-Davidsson : those guys would be the main PK guys and would be in charge of the main defensive assignments. Another pretty fast line. For that line I don’t the guys with the most offensive potential but guys that can keep the puck away from our zone and do a bit of everything.

Wild cards : Abramov, Veronneau, Crookshank, Gruden, Luchuk, Kelly, Nurmi : those guys will have to do really good to beat the guys in the lineup above. If there’s no spot and some deserve to be in the NHL then packaging multiple assets for a star player will have to happen. Dorion is stockpiling quality assets so it could be advantageous down the line. Something will have to give because a massive logjam is coming up.

To be traded in the near future : Tierney, Boedker, Ryan, Smith : expensive vets, already declining, losing speed. I know Tierney is younger but IMO he shouldn’t be a core piece and be traded at his peak value. The other 3 guys are placeholders for now

Defense : DeMelo is there because he plays solid and fits with Chabot. They need a first pairing RHD so hopefully they come out with a few very good prospects at that position in the next 2 drafts (focus should be high offensive potential centers and RHDs)

Chabot-DeMelo
Brännström-JBD
Wolanin-Jaros
Lajoie, Tychonick

To be traded in the near future : Ceci, Harpur, Borowiecki : placeholders while the young guys develop.


Goalies : Nilsson (will he be signed?), Hogberg, Daccord, Gustavsson, Mandolese

To be traded in the near future : Anderson (nearing retirement)

Potential among goalies is there, hard to say what will happen for now. May the 2 best wins


Overall, hard to not like the potential of this team and with many high picks in the next 2 drafts and a very good drafting record, the future might be brighter than Sens haters seem to think. Of course, that’s if finances don’t become a problem once again and Melnyk decides to sell in a not too distant future

Gives you the feeling they could be developing something great. How long till you have this lineup?

I agree with your first line, but I have doubts that Brown can become a true 1C. I think he is highly skilled with good vision and IQ. Just not convinced he has the compete and skating, also hoping injuries don’t derail his career.

Haven’t seen enough of Norris to say he is a 2nd line C, but he could interchange with White. Duclair would be a good finisher.

Chlapik is a question mark for me, hopefully another year in the ahl being the man will help.

Paul has done well since January but I wonder if that is because of Brown and Batherson. Not sure he can translate his current success on a 4th line. Verroneau might be a good substitute if Paul can’t translate.

Abramov could be a good 2nd or 3rd line replacement.

Agree with the D and goalie.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Duclair helps the rebuild. If he turned a corner and finally establishes himself as a top-6 forward, he’s young enough to be part of the core going forward. If not, he can be at least a middle-6 scorer with some value and we get a valuable asset or two for him before he goes into his UFA years.

Tkachuk-Brown-Batherson : this line has the potential to be a legit 1st line, each of them has a sky is the limit potential. We are already seeing what Tkachuk will become, it’s just in his blood. Batherson has the « it » factor, a development curve remeniscent of Mark Stone. Brown has a incredible skillset and playing between those 2 guys will help him reach his potential.

Duclair-Norris-White : Formenton could also be the guy on the LW but if Duclair is finally breaking out, he adds serious scoring potential on that line. White and Norris will be very complete players, smart all over the ice. They should help Duclair defensive game. That line would be super fast with a pretty good skill level for a 2nd line.

Formenton-Chlapik-Balcers : it’s a bit unknown at this point what they could do but imagine getting 3 guys who could put 35-45 pts from the 3rd line. Another fast line with very good skill level for a 3rd line

Paul-Pageau-Davidsson : those guys would be the main PK guys and would be in charge of the main defensive assignments. Another pretty fast line. For that line I don’t the guys with the most offensive potential but guys that can keep the puck away from our zone and do a bit of everything.

Wild cards : Abramov, Veronneau, Crookshank, Gruden, Luchuk, Kelly, Nurmi : those guys will have to do really good to beat the guys in the lineup above. If there’s no spot and some deserve to be in the NHL then packaging multiple assets for a star player will have to happen. Dorion is stockpiling quality assets so it could be advantageous down the line. Something will have to give because a massive logjam is coming up.

To be traded in the near future : Tierney, Boedker, Ryan, Smith : expensive vets, already declining, losing speed. I know Tierney is younger but IMO he shouldn’t be a core piece and be traded at his peak value. The other 3 guys are placeholders for now

Defense : DeMelo is there because he plays solid and fits with Chabot. They need a first pairing RHD so hopefully they come out with a few very good prospects at that position in the next 2 drafts (focus should be high offensive potential centers and RHDs)

Chabot-DeMelo
Brännström-JBD
Wolanin-Jaros
Lajoie, Tychonick

To be traded in the near future : Ceci, Harpur, Borowiecki : placeholders while the young guys develop.


Goalies : Nilsson (will he be signed?), Hogberg, Daccord, Gustavsson, Mandolese

To be traded in the near future : Anderson (nearing retirement)

Potential among goalies is there, hard to say what will happen for now. May the 2 best wins


Overall, hard to not like the potential of this team and with many high picks in the next 2 drafts and a very good drafting record, the future might be brighter than Sens haters seem to think. Of course, that’s if finances don’t become a problem once again and Melnyk decides to sell in a not too distant future

Couldn't agree more about that top line. I think if there's any chance Brown becomes a 1C, it's gonna be between Tkachuk and Batherson. He needs to play on a high energy line, and we know Brady brings that. We've seen his chemistry with Batherson as well. I would play that line next year. Then after we draft Lafreniere we can play Brady with Norris and Duclair (this is a pretty good 2nd line) and let Alexis dominate with Brown and Bath

Regardless, this team needs to keep Duclair. Dorion's best trade ever, he can't ruin it by not keeping him.

 

[BonkTastic]

13 points in 18 games.

Even if he is a defensive black hole, I can't see how he hasn't earned at least a qualifying offer at this point.

 

[SixthSens]

Give him 2.5 per for 2 years. That seems fair for both sides.

Agreed, 2 years max for Duclair.

 

[Sweatred]

Of course we should keep him. We couldn’t get any decent veteran for $2-3 million and AD is young enough to join the rebuild. He can be flipped too.

The sens are going to need wingers to support Brown and Norris. Someone who can hit open nets and score some goals. Someone to play on a PP, help pad stats, break slumps etc.

This team will need to make trades at some point. He may be the type of guy you keep while trading a higher valued prospect or his value may rise after 1-2 years of decent play.

 

[topshelf15]

He is working in all 3 zones whenever I watch him ,but seems a bit raw in 2 of them ...2 year deal seems logical