Annual "Where will the Canes finish?" Poll

Where will the Canes finish this season?


  • Total voters
    78
  • Poll closed .

GoldiFox

Registered User
Apr 21, 2014
13,287
32,030
Using point pace when players aren't on the same team is pretty useless.

Fair enough.

Carolina (Non Playoff Team)
Cam Ward: 100 point pace
Scott Darling: 66 point pace
Delta = -34 point pace

Philidelphia (Playoff Team):
Neuvirth: 91 point pace
Elliot: 106 point pace
Lyon: 105 point pace
Non-Mrazek PHI combine: 102 point pace
Mrazek PHI: 82 point pace
Delta: -20 point pace

Intra-team looks pretty bad as well for Mrazek. Although everyone here knows that, his performance was tracked pretty closely on this board last year as a potential long-term option.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,103
Fair enough.

Carolina (Non Playoff Team)
Cam Ward: 100 point pace
Scott Darling: 66 point pace
Delta = -34 point pace

Philidelphia (Playoff Team):
Neuvirth: 91 point pace
Elliot: 106 point pace
Lyon: 105 point pace
Non-Mrazek PHI combine: 102 point pace
Mrazek: 82 point pace
Delta: -20 point pace

Intra-team looks pretty bad as well for Mrazek. Although everyone here knows that, his performance was tracked pretty closely on this board last year as a potential long-term option.

Detroit:
Howard: 75 point pace
Mrazek: 87 point pace
Coreau: 14 point pace

It's meaningless, particularly when a goalie changes teams at the deadline and has a small sample size. The fact that you are using that as a viable metric is surprising.

I'm not saying Mrazek is the cure to all ills, nor that he'll be good here, just that the metric you are using to substantiate a point is a very flawed one.
 

The Stranger

Registered User
May 4, 2014
1,233
2,077
There's a reason why Ward got more money from a highly regarded franchise and Mrazek got half from a franchise that is a less desirable location for free agents.

Is it possible that Mrazek turns it around and plays well...sure...is it possible he has a better year that Ward...sure...it's possible...but not expected.

I think the only reason to not bring back Ward in favor of Mrazek is to shuffle it up (and save money)...common theme with major moves this summer...we'll see if the frugal off-season shuffle is viable strategery for building a franchise.
 

DaveG

Noted Jerk
Apr 7, 2003
51,016
47,855
Winston-Salem NC
There's a reason why Ward got more money from a highly regarded franchise and Mrazek got half from a franchise that is a less desirable location for free agents.

Is it possible that Mrazek turns it around and plays well...sure...is it possible he has a better year that Ward...sure...it's possible...but not expected.

I think the only reason to not bring back Ward in favor of Mrazek is to shuffle it up (and save money)...common theme with major moves this summer...we'll see if the frugal off-season shuffle is viable strategery for building a franchise.

I mean ideally we would have kept Ward as a 1B and the decision would have been to dump Darling to pick up Mrazek but what's done is done.
 

Ole Gil

Registered User
May 9, 2009
5,695
8,845
Yep, this is why I'm putting my eggs in the "Mrazek could bounce back" basket if we're going to make the playoffs. A pissed off Mrazek who's focused on winning a #1 spot with a coach that likely will give him the actual chance to do so could be a productive Mrazek.

This is the hope. We've got two guys with their careers on the line. If either has a bad season, I think their NHL days are probably done. We should get the absolute best they are both capable of. Whether that's any good remains to be seen, but the motivation provided by the circumstances is the perfect situation for the team.

Great example would be Semin. His 1 year show me contract, and he destroyed. Eric Staal took a 3 year show me deal, and is producing like he's in his prime. Cam even took a 2 year deal here, and established himself as a more than capable veteran backup.
 

Ole Gil

Registered User
May 9, 2009
5,695
8,845
I mean ideally we would have kept Ward as a 1B and the decision would have been to dump Darling to pick up Mrazek but what's done is done.

The problem with Cam as 1B, is we know he doens't have the gas left in the tank to be a #1. Mrazek and Darling, theoretically, with their age and not being played into the ground for a decade, could both become the 60 start #1's. That's two shots at a longer term solution, instead of only 1 if Cam is the backup.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
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This is the hope. We've got two guys with their careers on the line. If either has a bad season, I think their NHL days are probably done. We should get the absolute best they are both capable of. Whether that's any good remains to be seen, but the motivation provided by the circumstances is the perfect situation for the team.

Great example would be Semin. His 1 year show me contract, and he destroyed. Eric Staal took a 3 year show me deal, and is producing like he's in his prime. Cam even took a 2 year deal here, and established himself as a more than capable veteran backup.

That's true, but I think the difference is that all 3 of those guys were stars in the league with many years in the past with strong performance. That's not really the case with Mrazek and Darling. Still, your point is correct is that it's put up or shut up time for them.
 

DaveG

Noted Jerk
Apr 7, 2003
51,016
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Winston-Salem NC
The problem with Cam as 1B, is we know he doens't have the gas left in the tank to be a #1. Mrazek and Darling, theoretically, with their age and not being played into the ground for a decade, could both become the 60 start #1's. That's two shots at a longer term solution, instead of only 1 if Cam is the backup.
Possibly just a matter of terminology for me on this and maybe just being stuck in a bit of an old school mentality. To me a 1B is a guy capable of starting somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-35 games a year comfortably and taking over short-term if the starter is having a bad stretch. Less than that is a pure backup, more than that is an actual starter. I see Cam as a 30-35 game guy at this point in his career. Any more than that and just the wear and tear of the season gets him out of whatever he has going as we've seen the past couple years.
 

A Star is Burns

Formerly Azor Aho
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The problem with Cam as 1B, is we know he doens't have the gas left in the tank to be a #1. Mrazek and Darling, theoretically, with their age and not being played into the ground for a decade, could both become the 60 start #1's. That's two shots at a longer term solution, instead of only 1 if Cam is the backup.
I'm 100% on board with this. The downside with both Mrazek and Darling is terrifying. But I think they have more upside than Ward does in a starting role with where everyone is in their respective careers. Don't get me wrong, in a perfect world, I wouldn't have wanted either Darling, Mrazek, or Ward. But of any combo of the 3, I'll take what we got no matter how unpopular that opinion is.
 

tarheelhockey

Offside Review Specialist
Feb 12, 2010
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I'm skeptical about almost everything on this team beyond the defense. We are below average at every forward position, until proven otherwise. We have a rookie coach. We have rookies and new acquisitions at several key spots. We're an injury or two away from having more rookie forwards than 5+ year veterans. We're optimistic about our goalies because they literally can't be any worse than before.

There's a very significant chance that this team is completely, utterly unwatchable this season. I'm going to take the upside and say they get a nice #9 pick.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
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I'm skeptical about almost everything on this team beyond the defense. We are below average at every forward position, until proven otherwise. We have a rookie coach. We have rookies and new acquisitions at several key spots. We're an injury or two away from having more rookie forwards than 5+ year veterans. We're optimistic about our goalies because they literally can't be any worse than before.

There's a very significant chance that this team is completely, utterly unwatchable this season. I'm going to take the upside and say they get a nice #9 pick.

I think they probably won't be that good (and voted as such), but I do think they'll be fun to watch. Defense should be able to move the puck to the forwards extremely well. The team should be very fast and guys like Aho, TT, Svech, and Necas, and even guys like Foegele (if he makes it) should be exciting to watch, even if they may not all be good enough to get the team into the playoffs. I'm betting they skate harder and are more physical. The PP should have the most skill we've seen on it in years and can have guys (Faulk and Hamilton) on each unit that can blast from the point.

There will very likely be growing pains because of how young they are, but I think they should still be fun to watch.
 

Tryamw

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Nov 2, 2016
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There's a very significant chance that this team is completely, utterly unwatchable this season. I'm going to take the upside and say they get a nice #9 pick.
Sadly that gives me lots of games to have my eyes bleed from.. but it won't stop me from watching... Sort of like having a brand new car and watching a rock or bolt or something fly off a dump truck and hit that new car glass. Nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!. So yeah I'll be watching..

Any advice on what to drink to minimize the eye bleeding? Rum Vodka Scotch... Any and Everything?
 

tarheelhockey

Offside Review Specialist
Feb 12, 2010
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Bojangles Parking Lot
I think they probably won't be that good (and voted as such), but I do think they'll be fun to watch. Defense should be able to move the puck to the forwards extremely well. The team should be very fast and guys like Aho, TT, Svech, and Necas, and even guys like Foegele (if he makes it) should be exciting to watch, even if they may not all be good enough to get the team into the playoffs. I'm betting they skate harder and are more physical. The PP should have the most skill we've seen on it in years and can have guys (Faulk and Hamilton) on each unit that can blast from the point.

There will very likely be growing pains because of how young they are, but I think they should still be fun to watch.

One hopes they will be fun to watch.

There's still a significant chance that it turns out several of these guys are not actually ready at all, and we watch them get completely blown off the ice night after night until they're Skinner-like husks of their former selves. It takes a certain optimism to look at this roster and see them being fun to watch while losing all the time.
 

geehaad

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Aug 24, 2006
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Any advice on what to drink to minimize the eye bleeding? Rum Vodka Scotch... Any and Everything?
Yes.

Canes%20poster_WIT.0.jpg
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,103
Last year, the Canes scored 225 goals. The guys departed (Skinner, Lindholm, Ryan, Hanifin, Stempniak, Jooris, Nordstrom, Kruger, Dhalbeck) scored 75 of those goals so 33%.

The guys coming in (Ferland, Hamilton, Martinook, CDH) scored 49 goals last year (I used CDH's number from 2 years ago as he was hurt last year). So all things being equal, the Canes will be short 26 goals just based on those moves.

Can a combination of Necas, Svechnikov, Zykov, Foegele, Maenalanen, etc...and a rebound from Faulk make up the difference? Doesn't seem too unreasonable.
Rask being injured for the first couple of months puts a wrinkle into it, but he struggled last year as well so hard to say. I realize guys aren't going to produced at the exact same level year to year so just looking it it for comparison purposes. I also realize last year's team didn't score enough to be in the playoffs as well, but....

Interestingly enough, the guys departed were a combined -108 and the Canes as a team were -143, so they accounted for 75% of the minus. :eek:

If the rookies are even decent and the Canes don't have a major injuries to key players, it's going to come down to goaltending, as we all know.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,103
One hopes they will be fun to watch.

There's still a significant chance that it turns out several of these guys are not actually ready at all, and we watch them get completely blown off the ice night after night until they're Skinner-like husks of their former selves. It takes a certain optimism to look at this roster and see them being fun to watch while losing all the time.

Well, I guess I'll wait until they truly are unwatchable before fretting about them being unwatchable.
 

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